After taking the last five encounters, you might think that Texas' Mack Brown owns Texas Tech's Mike Leach. Maybe so, but maybe the BCS title trail will end here, in Lubbock, for the Longhorns this time.
For all practical purposes, Texas should beat Texas Tech on any given year. Texas is a national school with a great salesman leading it in Brown who has recruiting tools that are unmatchable. Tech has a brilliant coach and a shoestring budget.
But somehow Tech has been competitive. They beat Texas in '98 and '02 and should have beaten them two years ago in Lubbock after building a 21-0 lead. They lost that game 35-31, getting shutout in the second half.
This time should be different. This time Texas doesn't have the running game to control the clock, or the secondary to match up. This time Leach's pirate mentality may lead to the upset he's been striving for. One that could propel his team to an undefeated season. Reagardless, we like the Red Raiders chances Saturday night.
This week's best bets: Florida, Tulsa and Virginia.
Saturday
Texas -3 1/2 at Texas Tech—In case you haven’t noticed, Texas Tech is awfully hard to defend. Even for No.1 Texas, and especially at Lubbock. This year should be no exception. With the Longhorns coming down from three straight brutal battles, and with Tech looking forward to this game all year, this could be the end of the trail for Texas.
The pick: Texas Tech.
Florida -6 1/2 vs. Georgia—LSU couldn’t take advantage of Georgia’s weakened offensive line, but Florida will. Outside of Tulsa, Florida is probably the fastest team in the country. And the Gators have a defense that even Georgia will have hard time scoring against. If Georgia gives up 38 points and 500 yards (as vs. LSU) you can put as fork in their season.
Urban Meyer got a break in the schedule with Kentucky last week, making it easy for Florida to build up to this game. And other than their one-point loss to Mississippi, the Gators have beaten everyone by 23 or more. With the emphasis on or more.The Gators are also reminded of Georgia's bad-mannered celebration last year.
The pick: Florida (best bet).
Oregon +2 1/2 at Cal—This is a huge game with Pac-10 title ramifications. The last two years the visitor has come out on top and Oregon should make it three in a row. Cal’s passing game isn’t that big a threat and the Ducks are running better than anybody. It will be close making the 3-point take all the more attractive.
The pick: Oregon.
Auburn +6 1/2 at Mississippi—Hate to give an Auburn road team this many points but last week’s loss at West Virginia showed just how bad Auburn can be. The Tigers have huge problems scoring and their defense installed the bullfighter defense in the second half. Meanwhile, Ole Miss’ defense has been terrific and QB Jevan Senad is very underrated. At 4-4 this is a must win if the Rebels want to have a shot at a bowl game.
The pick: Mississippi.
Miami +2 at Virginia—Virginia’s hot, taking four in a row and playing great defense. Now the Cavs return home against a Miami team that's won three in a row but struggles on the road. Last week’s Virginia win at Georgia Tech was strictly a case of team that believes in itself. That’s powerful stuff to go against if you’re a team, like Miami, without much offense.
The pick: Virginia (best bet).
Northwestern +7 at Minnesota—Tim Brewster’s done an incredible job turning around Minnesota’s program and now the Gophers have a chance to finish 11-1, believe it or not. We should have seen it coming last year when they lost 28-27 to Penn State. Now at 3-1 in the Big 10 and fresh off two straight triumphs at Illinois and Purdue, Minnesota can take control at home against a depleted Northwestern team. The Wildcats are coming off a tough defeat at Indiana and also lost their top offensive threat, RB Tyrell Sutton, for the season. NW starting QB Bacher is also questionable with a leg injury.
The pick: Minnesota.
West Virginia -3 1/2 at Connecticut—West Virginia finally woke up in the second half last week against offensively-challenged Auburn, but has been anything but stellar on the road this year, losing at East Carolina and Colorado. UConn, though, looks tougher than ever at home—where they’ve won 10 straight—especially now that they’ve found an efficient QB in 20-year-old freshman Cody Endres. The Huskies are also tough on D, yielding less than 13 a game this year.
The pick: Connecticut, which took a 66-21 pasting last year.
Tulsa -7 at Arkansas—This game means everything to Tulsa and very little to Arkansas. The Golden Hurricanes are 8-0 and trying to get some recognition. They also lead the country gaining over 17 yards for every completed pass. They’re probably the fastest team in the country and when they strike it’s like watching a blur. Arkansas had its big games losing to Alabama, Texas, Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi. The last two were very tough defeats. Can’t see them getting up for this one. This is also a revenge game for Gus Malzahn, Tulsa’s offensive guru who wasn’t allowed to do his thing at Arkansas.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Pitt +4½ at Notre Dame—This could be a slugfest with each team scoring in the 30s, but the question that surrounds Pitt's QB situation (QB Stull was knocked out) makes this decision easier. The Panthers also lost their starting center for the season. Notre Dame believes in itself again and must be licking its chops waiting to attack the Pitt secondary.
The pick: Notre Dame.
Arizona State +15 1/2 at Oregon State—Arizona State is falling apart and on the road, while Oregon State is fighting for the Pac-10 title. The Beavers shouldn’t have any trouble with this visitor with so much at stake.
The pick: Oregon State. This line opened at 12 and has shot up since.
Washington State +30 at Stanford—Washington State has lost all seven of its FCS games by anywhere from 26 to 69 points this year, and the spreads have been increasing recently. Maybe the week off helped the poor Cougars. But Stanford can pound the ball as well as anybody, and teams with a running game have taken them apart.
The pick: Stanford.
Temple +7 at Navy—Temple’s had a hard time putting points on the board this year and will find it even more difficult with Navy controlling the clock. The Midshipmen get senior starting QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhadaback this week, just in time for Senior Day. A win makes Navy officially bowl eligible as well. The Owls got some experience defending the option by beating Army in the season opener, but Navy’s triple option is much harder to stop.
The pick: Navy.
Last week: 8-6; Season: 68-57-1
Best Bets Season: 15-12; Last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
Going with just 12 games on the board this week; games we really like rather than adding some games of interest without a strong opinion…Last week 10 out 13 teams that saw twp-point moves in their direction or more, covered! This week’s two-point plus money movers so far are: Kent, Virginia, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Army, Kansas State and Arizona State…
Nebraska is coming together and should be able to score on the Sooners with MLB Reynolds sidelined…Iowa should take advantage of bye week and add to its momentum against a suddenly struggling Illinois team…Texas A&M suddenly has a passing game just in time Colorado’s leaky secondary….Michigan, showing signs of improvement might upset a Purdue team that’s thrown in the towel….
It’s hard to like Cincy Thursday night when their offense is built around the QB and their QBs keep getting hurt. USF will not have anything close to a cakewalk, as Bearcats play super athyome especially at night on ESPN…BYU might get more than they expected at Colorado State this week… Look for Georgia Tech to bounce back vs. FSU. The Seminoles still make too many big mistakes for my money….Rice’s QB Chase Clement should be able to light up UTEP secondary, even in El Paso…If East Carolina wants to go to a decent bowl they’re going to have to beat UCF convincingly…
Even with Spiller coming back, can't see Clemson pulling together. This team is a head case that tried for a little while for the new coach at home but lost. Now they go up to Boston where they'll probably curtsy and lay down. B.C. needs it much more and should win handily....Like Army’s chance getting 9 at home from Air Force in a big rivalry game…. Liked Utah State’s chances against a bumbling Hawaii team, but the Aggies are still crying in their beer after losing last week on a 58-yard FG by Fresno State as time ran out. They also lost both first and second team centers in that game to MCLs.
The Urban Meyer Sportsmanship Award
With Florida already leading Kentucky 49-3 in the second half (last Saturday) Urban Meyer allowed Tim Tebow to stay in the game. Tebow proceded to lead Florida on a 16-play, 78-yard scoring drive in which he passed SIX TIMES, and ran the ball twice, pushing the score to 56-3.
Was Meyer afraid he'd slip in the polls? What the hell are his starters doing in the game with the score 49-3? Does Meyer have it in for Kentucky that much? It's one thing to play to win and it's another to play to humiliate.
--30--
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Podolsky Tabs $319 Cold Exacta; Sunday: Tulsa May Score 100 vs. UCF
By picking Raven's Pass first and Henrythenavigator second, Rich Podolsky nailed the $319 exacta in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Raven's Pass was one of three winners he selected on the big day. The others were best bet Goldikova in the Mile and Midnight Lute in he Sprint. (Scroll down to see his Breeders' Cup picks).
Sunday
UCF + 23½ at Tulsa—This looks like a revenge game for Tulsa, who lost twice last year to UCF, including in the Conference USA title game. Last week, trailing 28-21 to a UTEP team fresh from three straight wins, Tulsa, buried them, 77-35. In fact in their four home games this year Tulsa has averaged 65 points. Don’t see how UCF can keep up, unless Tulsa lets down. Which is unlikely with the game on ESPN.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet). Triple digits for the Golden Hurricane is not out of the question.
***
Sunday
UCF + 23½ at Tulsa—This looks like a revenge game for Tulsa, who lost twice last year to UCF, including in the Conference USA title game. Last week, trailing 28-21 to a UTEP team fresh from three straight wins, Tulsa, buried them, 77-35. In fact in their four home games this year Tulsa has averaged 65 points. Don’t see how UCF can keep up, unless Tulsa lets down. Which is unlikely with the game on ESPN.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet). Triple digits for the Golden Hurricane is not out of the question.
***
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Shades of '78 for Paterno & Beano
It’s been quite a while since Penn State won a game in Columbus, 30 years to be exact. And they're 0-7 since that victory, Sept. 16, 1978. That's when Joe Paterno brought in an experienced Lion team and beat Woody Hayes in the season-opener 19-0. It marked the debut of Buckeye freshman QB Art Schlichter, who was intercepted five times. It was also the last time the Buckeyes lost a home opener. Then again, when you schedule teams from the MAC, there isn’t much chance of losing.
The day before that game, half a dozen college football enthusiasts from CBS Sports gathered round Beano Cook (then doing publicity for CBS) at Mike Manuche’s restaurant on West 52nd St. in Manhattan. (I was one of those lucky six). Beano was, and still is, one of the keenest college football minds around, which was why guys like Dan Jenkins and Paul Hornung would frequently crash his lunch.
A few years before (while at ABC) Beano told Roone Arledge if he moved the Texas-Arkansas game from September to the end of the season that they’d play for the national championship. Arledge did and they did, and President Nixon showed up to present the trophy. Only thing was, Penn State was also undefeated and got screwed. Neither Arledge nor Nixon cared.
The food at Manuche’s was good but the only reason the CBS staffers came to the lunch was to hear Beano’s picks, which usually were delivered with dessert. That day Beano predicted that Penn State, a six-point dog, would shut out Ohio State. He was so sure he guaranteed it. These were strong words, even from Beano.
Most of those in attendance made small bets on the Lions, but producer Bill Creasy, a high roller, said he would bet a small fortune. The next Friday, after Penn State's 19-0 whitewash, Creasy brought a guest to the lunch. It was a very sexy young lady in a skimpy dress and pig tails. Creasy planted her next to Beano.
“Beano,” Creasy said, “this is Maria.”
“Ooooh,” said Beano, as she grabbed him under the table. “I always liked pigtails.”
This week’s best bets: Auburn, LSU, and Tulsa.
Saturday's Breeders’ Cup picks are below.
Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10
Saturday
Penn State -2 at Ohio State—The Buckeyes need to play every bit as well as they did against Michigan State to stay in this game. Despite the winning streak at the Horseshoe they own over the Lions, this looks like a Nittany Lion team capable of overcoming history. Penn State has a better quarterback, better receivers, better special teams and more overall speed.
The pick: Penn State.
Oklahoma State +11½ at Texas—Don’t look for Texas to ease off the throttle now. The Ok. State defense is made to order for Colt McCoy, who should be able to avoid any rush the Cowboys throw at him. If Texas is to have a slip it might come next week at Texas Tech. This could be another mismatch.
The pick: Texas.
USC-15 at Arizona—As dominant as USC seems to be, they’re quite ordinary on the road in the Pac 10. Before last week’s 69-0 win at Washington State, the Trojans only covered in three of their previous 10 conference road games, losing four outright. It’s because everyone gets up for USC and there will be no difference at Arizona. The Wildcats have become believers after pounding Cal last week, and need to beat USC to stay in a first-place tie for the Pac-10 lead.
The pick: Arizona.
Georgia +1 at LSU—Under Mark Richt the Bulldogs have been sensational on the road, winning 17 of their last 21 games away from home, but they didn’t win on their last trip to Baton Rouge. It might be easier to win in Iraq than at LSU at night, and trying to win with an offensive line missing most of its starters is asking too much. LSU showed a huge improvement last week and its defense should dominate the Bulldogs.
The pick: LSU (best bet).
Wake Forest +2½ at Miami—All of a sudden Wake can’t score. In their last four games the Deacs have averaged 10 points a game against so-so competition. Miami, on the other hand, looks like its got the better athletes and momentum on its side.
The pick: Miami.
Texas Tech +1 at Kansas—Even though Tech is ranked in the Top 10, it can’t seem to get its defense off the field very often, causing games against Texas A&M and Nebraska to be much closer than necessary. No fault of the Red Raider offense which seems to move the ball the length of the field every time they get it.
Kansas’ offense is similar to Tech’s but not quite as potent and its defense is about equal. After getting beat up last week at Oklahoma, and with state rival Kansas State ahead next week, KU might not be as sharp or as healthy as they’d like to be. Tech may also be looking ahead to a visit from Texas next week in Lubbock.
The pick: Texas Tech, if they can make their PATs this week.
Va. Tech +6 at Florida State—Still not convince FSU is as good as everyone seems to think they are, but there are some flashes, especially at quarterback, where a running QB makes a world of difference. Tech looks very one dimensional on offense this year, with cracks showing on defense and special teams.
The pick: Florida State.
Baylor +13 at Nebraska—This is Baylor’s second straight road game after getting pounded by Ok. State last week, 34-6, with Missouri to look forward to next week. Brutal. Nebraska has found its center and is running the ball up everyone’s throat like the old days. Bylor’s improved but they’re also beat up.
The pick: Nebraska.
Mississippi -6½ at Arkansas—Ole Miss left it all on the field last week at Alabama, and if they didn’t leave it there it was deposited at Florida two weeks earlier. This has been a brutal stretch for the Rebels, with this being their thirds road game in four weeks, with Auburn up next. Can’t see a similar effort coming this week against an Arkansas team that’s vastly improved.
The pick: Arkansas.
SMU +12 at Navy—After playing Tulsa closer than anyone in a 37-31 loss, and losing last week in the last minute to Houston, 44-38, playing Navy on the road has to be a tall order for a team that’s drained both physically and mentally. Only a back-door cover can slow down the Midshipmen in this spot.
The pick: Navy.
Bowling Green +7 at N. Illinois—Northern Illinois has quietly put together a nice resume this year. They’ve won four of their last five with the lone loss a 13-9 defeat at Tennessee. During that five-game span the Huskies D gave up a total of 36 points. After a fast start BG has lost 4 of 6, with inexplicable home losses to E. Mich. and Miami (Oh). Now with starting QB Chandler Harnish back in the saddle, N. Ill. should roll.
The pick: Northern Ill.
C. Michigan -3½ at Toledo—Central Michigan is getting better by the week, while Toledo seems to be falling apart. With QB Dan Lefevour sidelined, Brian Brunner took over and went 20-28 vs. foe Western Michigan for 346 yards and a TD. No problem.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Sunday
UCF + 23½ at Tulsa—This looks like a revenge game for Tulsa, who lost twice last year to UCF, including in the Conference USA title game. Last week, trailing 28-21 to a UTEP team fresh from three straight wins, Tulsa, buried them, 77-35. In fact in their four home games this year Tulsa has averaged 65 points. Don’t see how UCF can keep up, unless Tulsa lets down.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Thursday
Auburn +3½ at West Virginia—Auburn is one of the best road teams around. Under Tommy T. they’ve won 10 of their last 13 on the road outright. Tuberville has had 12 days to improve his offense since changing coordinators. West Virginia continues to disappoint, even in victory.
The pick: Auburn (best bet). WV hasn’t seen a defense this fast.
Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10
Second Thoughts
After a second straight week going 9 and 5 we’ve pulled 9 points ahead of the Mendoza Line. Last week it didn’t pay to follow the late money. Five of the six teams we listed that had late moves of one point or more, failed to cover.
Can’t see Boise losing to San Jose, and they should win by more than a TD…Alabama without Cody is an offense looking for direction. The defense is still solid and so is Tennessee’s, so look for a close, low-scoring game….Pitt should handle Rutgers, now that the Panthers have a ton of confidence….Oregon, despite a mediocre passing game, should still keep Arizona State safe….
Louisville had a nice comeback last week vs. Middle Tennessee, but this South Florida they’re playing which is 3-0 on the road this year…Look for Vandy and Duke to have a game over 70 unless weather plays a roll…Indiana, of all teams, is taking money vs. Northwestern…It looks like Virginia’s three-game winning streak might be in trouble at Georgia Tech this week... Colorado doesn’t have the people to either cover or put pressure on Missouri. Look for a blowout at Mizzu.
Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup
Twenty-four years ago I was part of a small, elite team that put the first Breeders’ Cup together. I worked closely with founder John Gaines and Hall of Fame trainer John Nerud to try and accomplish their goal of creating a year-end spectacular for their sport. They wanted to have the best horses in every category (dirt, grass, sprinters, distance, male, female) compete, and then rotate this great event at race tracks all over the world. Until this year, that his been the case.
What they didn’t have in mind was having some of the best dirt horses in the world avoiding the event because the so-called “dirt races” were being run on a synthetic surface that played like grass. They didn’t have in mind great trainers like Nick Zito staying back in New York and not sending a single horse to compete.
But that’s what this 25th edition of the Cup has come to at Santa Anita this year (and next). If Curlin doesn't win the Classic there will be a ton more staying home next year. For handicappers, picking horses on synthetic surfaces is like throwing darts. The Cup will experience a handle drop off, next year, if not this one too, because of the uncertainty of the surface. The message here is to go easy on races that are not run over the turf.
Marathon— Zappa, Delightful Kiss, Sixties Icon
Turf Sprint— Fleeting Spirit, Salute the Count, Diabolical
Dirt Mile—First Defense, Well Armed, Pyro
Mile—Goldikova (best bet), Whatsthescript,, Prescious Kitten
Juvenile—Square Eddie, Pioneer of the Nile, Munnings
Juvenile Turf—Bittle Road, Skipdate, Grand Adventure
Sprint—Midnight Lute, Fabulous Strike, Lewis Michael
Turf—Soldier of Fortune, Winchester, Eagle Mountain
Classic—Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator, Go Between, Curlin, Student Council, Duke of Marmalade
--30--
The day before that game, half a dozen college football enthusiasts from CBS Sports gathered round Beano Cook (then doing publicity for CBS) at Mike Manuche’s restaurant on West 52nd St. in Manhattan. (I was one of those lucky six). Beano was, and still is, one of the keenest college football minds around, which was why guys like Dan Jenkins and Paul Hornung would frequently crash his lunch.
A few years before (while at ABC) Beano told Roone Arledge if he moved the Texas-Arkansas game from September to the end of the season that they’d play for the national championship. Arledge did and they did, and President Nixon showed up to present the trophy. Only thing was, Penn State was also undefeated and got screwed. Neither Arledge nor Nixon cared.
The food at Manuche’s was good but the only reason the CBS staffers came to the lunch was to hear Beano’s picks, which usually were delivered with dessert. That day Beano predicted that Penn State, a six-point dog, would shut out Ohio State. He was so sure he guaranteed it. These were strong words, even from Beano.
Most of those in attendance made small bets on the Lions, but producer Bill Creasy, a high roller, said he would bet a small fortune. The next Friday, after Penn State's 19-0 whitewash, Creasy brought a guest to the lunch. It was a very sexy young lady in a skimpy dress and pig tails. Creasy planted her next to Beano.
“Beano,” Creasy said, “this is Maria.”
“Ooooh,” said Beano, as she grabbed him under the table. “I always liked pigtails.”
This week’s best bets: Auburn, LSU, and Tulsa.
Saturday's Breeders’ Cup picks are below.
Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10
Saturday
Penn State -2 at Ohio State—The Buckeyes need to play every bit as well as they did against Michigan State to stay in this game. Despite the winning streak at the Horseshoe they own over the Lions, this looks like a Nittany Lion team capable of overcoming history. Penn State has a better quarterback, better receivers, better special teams and more overall speed.
The pick: Penn State.
Oklahoma State +11½ at Texas—Don’t look for Texas to ease off the throttle now. The Ok. State defense is made to order for Colt McCoy, who should be able to avoid any rush the Cowboys throw at him. If Texas is to have a slip it might come next week at Texas Tech. This could be another mismatch.
The pick: Texas.
USC-15 at Arizona—As dominant as USC seems to be, they’re quite ordinary on the road in the Pac 10. Before last week’s 69-0 win at Washington State, the Trojans only covered in three of their previous 10 conference road games, losing four outright. It’s because everyone gets up for USC and there will be no difference at Arizona. The Wildcats have become believers after pounding Cal last week, and need to beat USC to stay in a first-place tie for the Pac-10 lead.
The pick: Arizona.
Georgia +1 at LSU—Under Mark Richt the Bulldogs have been sensational on the road, winning 17 of their last 21 games away from home, but they didn’t win on their last trip to Baton Rouge. It might be easier to win in Iraq than at LSU at night, and trying to win with an offensive line missing most of its starters is asking too much. LSU showed a huge improvement last week and its defense should dominate the Bulldogs.
The pick: LSU (best bet).
Wake Forest +2½ at Miami—All of a sudden Wake can’t score. In their last four games the Deacs have averaged 10 points a game against so-so competition. Miami, on the other hand, looks like its got the better athletes and momentum on its side.
The pick: Miami.
Texas Tech +1 at Kansas—Even though Tech is ranked in the Top 10, it can’t seem to get its defense off the field very often, causing games against Texas A&M and Nebraska to be much closer than necessary. No fault of the Red Raider offense which seems to move the ball the length of the field every time they get it.
Kansas’ offense is similar to Tech’s but not quite as potent and its defense is about equal. After getting beat up last week at Oklahoma, and with state rival Kansas State ahead next week, KU might not be as sharp or as healthy as they’d like to be. Tech may also be looking ahead to a visit from Texas next week in Lubbock.
The pick: Texas Tech, if they can make their PATs this week.
Va. Tech +6 at Florida State—Still not convince FSU is as good as everyone seems to think they are, but there are some flashes, especially at quarterback, where a running QB makes a world of difference. Tech looks very one dimensional on offense this year, with cracks showing on defense and special teams.
The pick: Florida State.
Baylor +13 at Nebraska—This is Baylor’s second straight road game after getting pounded by Ok. State last week, 34-6, with Missouri to look forward to next week. Brutal. Nebraska has found its center and is running the ball up everyone’s throat like the old days. Bylor’s improved but they’re also beat up.
The pick: Nebraska.
Mississippi -6½ at Arkansas—Ole Miss left it all on the field last week at Alabama, and if they didn’t leave it there it was deposited at Florida two weeks earlier. This has been a brutal stretch for the Rebels, with this being their thirds road game in four weeks, with Auburn up next. Can’t see a similar effort coming this week against an Arkansas team that’s vastly improved.
The pick: Arkansas.
SMU +12 at Navy—After playing Tulsa closer than anyone in a 37-31 loss, and losing last week in the last minute to Houston, 44-38, playing Navy on the road has to be a tall order for a team that’s drained both physically and mentally. Only a back-door cover can slow down the Midshipmen in this spot.
The pick: Navy.
Bowling Green +7 at N. Illinois—Northern Illinois has quietly put together a nice resume this year. They’ve won four of their last five with the lone loss a 13-9 defeat at Tennessee. During that five-game span the Huskies D gave up a total of 36 points. After a fast start BG has lost 4 of 6, with inexplicable home losses to E. Mich. and Miami (Oh). Now with starting QB Chandler Harnish back in the saddle, N. Ill. should roll.
The pick: Northern Ill.
C. Michigan -3½ at Toledo—Central Michigan is getting better by the week, while Toledo seems to be falling apart. With QB Dan Lefevour sidelined, Brian Brunner took over and went 20-28 vs. foe Western Michigan for 346 yards and a TD. No problem.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Sunday
UCF + 23½ at Tulsa—This looks like a revenge game for Tulsa, who lost twice last year to UCF, including in the Conference USA title game. Last week, trailing 28-21 to a UTEP team fresh from three straight wins, Tulsa, buried them, 77-35. In fact in their four home games this year Tulsa has averaged 65 points. Don’t see how UCF can keep up, unless Tulsa lets down.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Thursday
Auburn +3½ at West Virginia—Auburn is one of the best road teams around. Under Tommy T. they’ve won 10 of their last 13 on the road outright. Tuberville has had 12 days to improve his offense since changing coordinators. West Virginia continues to disappoint, even in victory.
The pick: Auburn (best bet). WV hasn’t seen a defense this fast.
Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10
Second Thoughts
After a second straight week going 9 and 5 we’ve pulled 9 points ahead of the Mendoza Line. Last week it didn’t pay to follow the late money. Five of the six teams we listed that had late moves of one point or more, failed to cover.
Can’t see Boise losing to San Jose, and they should win by more than a TD…Alabama without Cody is an offense looking for direction. The defense is still solid and so is Tennessee’s, so look for a close, low-scoring game….Pitt should handle Rutgers, now that the Panthers have a ton of confidence….Oregon, despite a mediocre passing game, should still keep Arizona State safe….
Louisville had a nice comeback last week vs. Middle Tennessee, but this South Florida they’re playing which is 3-0 on the road this year…Look for Vandy and Duke to have a game over 70 unless weather plays a roll…Indiana, of all teams, is taking money vs. Northwestern…It looks like Virginia’s three-game winning streak might be in trouble at Georgia Tech this week... Colorado doesn’t have the people to either cover or put pressure on Missouri. Look for a blowout at Mizzu.
Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup
Twenty-four years ago I was part of a small, elite team that put the first Breeders’ Cup together. I worked closely with founder John Gaines and Hall of Fame trainer John Nerud to try and accomplish their goal of creating a year-end spectacular for their sport. They wanted to have the best horses in every category (dirt, grass, sprinters, distance, male, female) compete, and then rotate this great event at race tracks all over the world. Until this year, that his been the case.
What they didn’t have in mind was having some of the best dirt horses in the world avoiding the event because the so-called “dirt races” were being run on a synthetic surface that played like grass. They didn’t have in mind great trainers like Nick Zito staying back in New York and not sending a single horse to compete.
But that’s what this 25th edition of the Cup has come to at Santa Anita this year (and next). If Curlin doesn't win the Classic there will be a ton more staying home next year. For handicappers, picking horses on synthetic surfaces is like throwing darts. The Cup will experience a handle drop off, next year, if not this one too, because of the uncertainty of the surface. The message here is to go easy on races that are not run over the turf.
Marathon— Zappa, Delightful Kiss, Sixties Icon
Turf Sprint— Fleeting Spirit, Salute the Count, Diabolical
Dirt Mile—First Defense, Well Armed, Pyro
Mile—Goldikova (best bet), Whatsthescript,, Prescious Kitten
Juvenile—Square Eddie, Pioneer of the Nile, Munnings
Juvenile Turf—Bittle Road, Skipdate, Grand Adventure
Sprint—Midnight Lute, Fabulous Strike, Lewis Michael
Turf—Soldier of Fortune, Winchester, Eagle Mountain
Classic—Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator, Go Between, Curlin, Student Council, Duke of Marmalade
--30--
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Texas, Penn State, Oklahoma to Roll
The race is on and since there’s no playoff, Texas, Alabama, Penn State and Oklahoma will have to win and win big to keep their championship hopes alive. For Texas and Oklahoma it means forgetting about last week’s battle and focusing on their Big 12 opponents this week, Missouri and Kansas respectively.
Alabama better not look past Mississippi either. The Tide just has to look back a few weeks to see what Ole Miss did to a Florida team that took them for granted.
This week’s best bets: TCU, Texas, and Michigan State.
Saturday
Missouri +4 at Texas—Missouri’s defensive flaws were exposed by Ok. State which Texas is sure to take advantage of. Missouri has to be deflated after seeing its perfect season and hold on the Big 12 race go down the drain. And while Texas is also coming from an emotional situation, the Longhorns usually take care of business the week following Oklahoma, winning the last three years by an average of 34.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Mississippi +12 at Alabama—Both teams have had a week off to get ready but Alabama might overlook Ole Miss. And even though Mississippi looked past Vanderbilt, expect the Rebels to come just as prepared as they were at Florida. This game has gone down to the wire the last three years, with Tide winning all three by just a FG.
The pick: Mississippi.
Michigan +24 1/2 Penn State—I’ve never seen Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez this depressed. Losing to Toledo has to be depressing but at least he can point to this week’s game as a measuring rod. Too bad Paterno hates Michigan and loves to roll it up when given the chance. It doesn’t matter that Ohio State is next for the Lions.
The pick: Penn State.
Ohio State -3 1/2 at Michigan State—On the other hand, Ohio State is certainly looking ahead to next week’s game with Penn State in Columbus, which is a mistake, because Michigan State is a worthy foe and at it’s best right now. The Spartans domination of Notre Dame and at Northwestern (last week) was impressive. Also, the Buckeyes don’t exactly have the offense tuned up, collecting a measly 222 total yards against a Purdue team, not known for defense.
The pick: Michigan State (best bet).
Vanderbilt +15 at Georgia--Vandy has given Georgia fits the past two seasons. Two years ago with a record of 2-4 Vandy came to Athens and pulled off a 24-22 shocker. Last year Georgia needed a FG on the game's final play to avoid overtime. With Vandy still needing another win to become bowl eligible, the Commodores will come in confident, knowing they match up well with the Bulldogs.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Kansas +19 1/2 at Oklahoma—Instincts say #4 Sooners will bounce back and focus on chance to make BCS title game, which means winning impressively. Kansas had made to order defense for Oklahoma, if the Sooners can keep their heads in the game after tough loss at Red River. Betting that Stoopos can get them back on track.
The pick: Oklahoma. Game opened at 18.
LSU -2 at South Carolina—This is a perfect situation for the Gamecocks. LSU, which we were never impressed with this year, is coming off of a beating by rival Florida, and is sure to come to Columbia down and out. The Gamecocks, which feature a terrific defense, also have found a quarterback in Stephen Garcia, who led them on two scoring drives in the second half last week. Finally with a QB he can trust, Spurrier is much more dangerous.
The pick: South Carolina.
Georgia Tech -2 at Clemson—Maybe the firing of Tommy Bowden will clear the air at Clemson and allow the Tigers to get back to winning. Maybe new coach Dabo Swinney can get his team’s focus. However changing coaches on a week Clemson has to prepare for Georgia Tech’s tough defense and difficult triple option, doesn’t seem like a good idea. Goodbye focus.
Last week Tech looked awful with third-string QB Calvin Booker running their option. But both first and second team QBs, Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw, are back this week to run the attack, which will make it much more difficult to cover.
The pick: Georgia Tech. Game opened with Tech a 1½ point dog.
Virginia Tech +3 at Boston College—B.C. is coming into its own behind versatile QB Chris Crane. They are also a very tough team to beat at home, having disposed of every opponent but Florida State over the last three years. Tech has built a solid resume but lacks the explosiveness the Eagles can bring to the table.
The pick: Boston College. There’s no place like home.
North Carolina -4 1/2 at Virginia--Virginia has all of a sudden come together, with its defense being the strength of the team. The Cavs have upset both Maryland and East Carolina at home and now take on the Tar Heels without Brandon Tate, who has been the heart of the team. See another upset here.
The pick: Virginia.
UTEP + 18 at Tulsa—This has been a close game the last four years, with three of the contests decided by three points or less. While Tulsa's offense is one of the best around, its defense has been mediocre. The last two games Tulsa’s yielded nearly 500 yards each to Rice and SMU. UTEP, on the other hand, is hot, winning three straight over UCF, Southern Miss and Tulane.
The pick: UTEP. This could be a huge upset.
Colorado State +21½ at Utah—With the focus on BYU at TCU this week, Utah needs to remind everyone that they’re going to have to be dealt with too in the Mountain West. The Utes won’t have another chance to impress until they meet TCU in three weeks, so winning the easy ones big is a must. Also can’t see the Rams coming up with a big effort after leaving it all on the field in 13-7 loss to TCU.
The pick: Utah.
Middle Tennessee +14½ at Louisville—Middle Tennessee has been anywhere from respectable to brilliant this year, and always seems to be ready for the big games, upsetting Maryland and coming with a yard of doing the same at Kentucky. This week they face a Louisville team that gave up nearly 500 yards to Memphis last week, and hasn’t scared anyone with their attack to date.
The pick: Middle Tennessee. It means a lot more to them than to the Cardinals.
Thursday
BYU-1½ at TCU—If TCU can put pressure in Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, they can get to BYU’s Max Hall. BYU’s defense is pretty good in its own right, but the Horned Frog’s running attack will control the clock and the game. This is TCU’s season.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
Last Week: 9-5; Season: 51-46-1
Best Bets: 2-1; Season: 12-9
Second Thoughts
Got back on track last week going 9 and 5, although Texas pick was predicated on the Longhorn D and Colt McCoy playing well. Colt held up his end, at least.
Leaning toward N.C. State Thursday night at home vs. Florida State since the Wolfpack were very respectable at home vs. B.C., but can’t force a bet on a dog I don’t think can win the game. However, NC State has split the last six with FSU and only last year's loss was settled by more than 10.…Boise looking for revenge Friday against Hawaii, but 25 is a lot of wood against a team that can score….
Arizona blew one last week to Stanford and needs this game vs. Cal. The Bears aren’t nearly as effective on the road unless they’re playing Washington State…As improved as Duke has looked, they don’t have the athletes to match up with Miami…
Money Moves
Late money has poured in on the following teams: Duke (vs. Miami), Missouri (vs. Texas), Stanford (vs. UCLA), South Carolina (vs. LSU) , Troy (vs. FIU), and for the second week in a row Western Michigan (vs. Central Michigan).
Alabama better not look past Mississippi either. The Tide just has to look back a few weeks to see what Ole Miss did to a Florida team that took them for granted.
This week’s best bets: TCU, Texas, and Michigan State.
Saturday
Missouri +4 at Texas—Missouri’s defensive flaws were exposed by Ok. State which Texas is sure to take advantage of. Missouri has to be deflated after seeing its perfect season and hold on the Big 12 race go down the drain. And while Texas is also coming from an emotional situation, the Longhorns usually take care of business the week following Oklahoma, winning the last three years by an average of 34.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Mississippi +12 at Alabama—Both teams have had a week off to get ready but Alabama might overlook Ole Miss. And even though Mississippi looked past Vanderbilt, expect the Rebels to come just as prepared as they were at Florida. This game has gone down to the wire the last three years, with Tide winning all three by just a FG.
The pick: Mississippi.
Michigan +24 1/2 Penn State—I’ve never seen Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez this depressed. Losing to Toledo has to be depressing but at least he can point to this week’s game as a measuring rod. Too bad Paterno hates Michigan and loves to roll it up when given the chance. It doesn’t matter that Ohio State is next for the Lions.
The pick: Penn State.
Ohio State -3 1/2 at Michigan State—On the other hand, Ohio State is certainly looking ahead to next week’s game with Penn State in Columbus, which is a mistake, because Michigan State is a worthy foe and at it’s best right now. The Spartans domination of Notre Dame and at Northwestern (last week) was impressive. Also, the Buckeyes don’t exactly have the offense tuned up, collecting a measly 222 total yards against a Purdue team, not known for defense.
The pick: Michigan State (best bet).
Vanderbilt +15 at Georgia--Vandy has given Georgia fits the past two seasons. Two years ago with a record of 2-4 Vandy came to Athens and pulled off a 24-22 shocker. Last year Georgia needed a FG on the game's final play to avoid overtime. With Vandy still needing another win to become bowl eligible, the Commodores will come in confident, knowing they match up well with the Bulldogs.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Kansas +19 1/2 at Oklahoma—Instincts say #4 Sooners will bounce back and focus on chance to make BCS title game, which means winning impressively. Kansas had made to order defense for Oklahoma, if the Sooners can keep their heads in the game after tough loss at Red River. Betting that Stoopos can get them back on track.
The pick: Oklahoma. Game opened at 18.
LSU -2 at South Carolina—This is a perfect situation for the Gamecocks. LSU, which we were never impressed with this year, is coming off of a beating by rival Florida, and is sure to come to Columbia down and out. The Gamecocks, which feature a terrific defense, also have found a quarterback in Stephen Garcia, who led them on two scoring drives in the second half last week. Finally with a QB he can trust, Spurrier is much more dangerous.
The pick: South Carolina.
Georgia Tech -2 at Clemson—Maybe the firing of Tommy Bowden will clear the air at Clemson and allow the Tigers to get back to winning. Maybe new coach Dabo Swinney can get his team’s focus. However changing coaches on a week Clemson has to prepare for Georgia Tech’s tough defense and difficult triple option, doesn’t seem like a good idea. Goodbye focus.
Last week Tech looked awful with third-string QB Calvin Booker running their option. But both first and second team QBs, Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw, are back this week to run the attack, which will make it much more difficult to cover.
The pick: Georgia Tech. Game opened with Tech a 1½ point dog.
Virginia Tech +3 at Boston College—B.C. is coming into its own behind versatile QB Chris Crane. They are also a very tough team to beat at home, having disposed of every opponent but Florida State over the last three years. Tech has built a solid resume but lacks the explosiveness the Eagles can bring to the table.
The pick: Boston College. There’s no place like home.
North Carolina -4 1/2 at Virginia--Virginia has all of a sudden come together, with its defense being the strength of the team. The Cavs have upset both Maryland and East Carolina at home and now take on the Tar Heels without Brandon Tate, who has been the heart of the team. See another upset here.
The pick: Virginia.
UTEP + 18 at Tulsa—This has been a close game the last four years, with three of the contests decided by three points or less. While Tulsa's offense is one of the best around, its defense has been mediocre. The last two games Tulsa’s yielded nearly 500 yards each to Rice and SMU. UTEP, on the other hand, is hot, winning three straight over UCF, Southern Miss and Tulane.
The pick: UTEP. This could be a huge upset.
Colorado State +21½ at Utah—With the focus on BYU at TCU this week, Utah needs to remind everyone that they’re going to have to be dealt with too in the Mountain West. The Utes won’t have another chance to impress until they meet TCU in three weeks, so winning the easy ones big is a must. Also can’t see the Rams coming up with a big effort after leaving it all on the field in 13-7 loss to TCU.
The pick: Utah.
Middle Tennessee +14½ at Louisville—Middle Tennessee has been anywhere from respectable to brilliant this year, and always seems to be ready for the big games, upsetting Maryland and coming with a yard of doing the same at Kentucky. This week they face a Louisville team that gave up nearly 500 yards to Memphis last week, and hasn’t scared anyone with their attack to date.
The pick: Middle Tennessee. It means a lot more to them than to the Cardinals.
Thursday
BYU-1½ at TCU—If TCU can put pressure in Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, they can get to BYU’s Max Hall. BYU’s defense is pretty good in its own right, but the Horned Frog’s running attack will control the clock and the game. This is TCU’s season.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
Last Week: 9-5; Season: 51-46-1
Best Bets: 2-1; Season: 12-9
Second Thoughts
Got back on track last week going 9 and 5, although Texas pick was predicated on the Longhorn D and Colt McCoy playing well. Colt held up his end, at least.
Leaning toward N.C. State Thursday night at home vs. Florida State since the Wolfpack were very respectable at home vs. B.C., but can’t force a bet on a dog I don’t think can win the game. However, NC State has split the last six with FSU and only last year's loss was settled by more than 10.…Boise looking for revenge Friday against Hawaii, but 25 is a lot of wood against a team that can score….
Arizona blew one last week to Stanford and needs this game vs. Cal. The Bears aren’t nearly as effective on the road unless they’re playing Washington State…As improved as Duke has looked, they don’t have the athletes to match up with Miami…
Money Moves
Late money has poured in on the following teams: Duke (vs. Miami), Missouri (vs. Texas), Stanford (vs. UCLA), South Carolina (vs. LSU) , Troy (vs. FIU), and for the second week in a row Western Michigan (vs. Central Michigan).
Army on a two-game tear getting bundle at Buffalo. Cadets are perfecting that triple option offense which is getting tough to defend…. Stanford has become the best running team in the Pac 10 and might be too physical for UCLA…With extra time to prepare Pitt has a much better chance of figuring out Navy’s offense, which it failed to do last year.
Hard to imagine Texas Tech not having easy time scoring consistently against A&M, but have been burnt too many times laying this many on the road. Though double-didgit home dogs are no better than 50% this October.... Purdue has crushed Northwestern the last two years and has been impressive defensively the last weeks vs. Penn State and Ohio State, yielding just three offensive TDs total against the pair....Northern Ill. gets starting QB Chandler Harnish back vs. Toledo.
--30--
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
McCoy, Texas D to Pull Upset
This stands to be one of the better shootouts at the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. Only thing is, it might not be a shootout at all with both teams sporting two of the best defenses in the country. We look for Texas’ Colt McCoy to pull the game out after a defensive struggle. With No.1 in the nation at stake, expect a barnburner.
The other huge game has LSU at Florida and if things aren’t hard enough for teams going into the Swamp, an LSU lineman is bragging that they’ll take Tebow out if they can. The Gators don’t really need any more help.
This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, Army and Florida Int’l
Saturday
Texas +7 vs. Oklahoma—Last year’s 28-21 Oklahoma victory was the only one in the last six of this series to be as close as 7 points, meaning the chances that the spread comes into play are slim. Regardless, both teams have great defenses and great passing games. The Sooners seem to have the better running game, and that could be the difference. However, Oklahoma’s punting and punt coverage has been poor, which could cost them the game.
Both teams are win by huge scores and have top-five rated sack patrols. Oklahoma might have an edge for playing better competition in Cincinnati and TCU. This is a tough call but we’re going with Texas, which has a more versatile offense behind Colt McCoy.
The pick: Texas. Maybe the points will come into play, after all.
LSU +6 1/2 at Florida—LSU has far from impressed this year, and you can’t say they looked great beating offensively-challenged Auburn. Florida still lacks a credible running game but no one is cleverer than Urban Meyer figuring ways to get around that. And no one likes to cover more than Meyer, too.
The pick: Florida.
Penn State -6 at Wisconsin—Last week’s loss to Ohio State might not be as devastating to the Badgers’ Big Ten hopes as you think. A win here over Penn State puts them right back in the race. As for Ohio State, they still have to play Penn State and Michigan and travel to Illinois and Michigan State—a schedule that could easily provide two defeats.
Penn State has been tremendous both home and away, but with Michigan and the Buckeyes on tap after this, the Lions might not take Wisky that seriously. Which would be a mistake because Wisconsin won 16 straight at home before losing to Ohio State.
The pick: Wisconsin. Penn State has gotten destroyed its last two visits to Madison.
Tennessee +12 1/2 at Georgia—Going out on a limb here with Fullmer who usually comes through when his back is to the wall, and believe me Tennessee’s backs are rubbing up against it. The Vols, for all their woes, are still fifth in the nation in Total Defesne, and have thumped Georgia the last two years. Despite terrible offense and poor punting stats, going with Vols.
The pick: Tennessee.
Oklahoma State +14 at Missouri—It’s hard not to be impressed with Missouri. Last week the Tigers ended a 30-year hex by blowing out Nebraska at Lincoln. Considering how defenseless Nebraska looks this year, the only decent team the Tigers have faced is Illinois.
The Cowboys have played a schedule easier than Little League, and have dispatched them all, as expected. QB Zac Robinson is very effective and under the radar of most fans. Would be surprised if Ok. State doesn’t make a game of this, and with Mizzu looking ahead to Texas next week, an upset is possible.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Vanderbilt -2 1/2 at Mississippi State—Vanderbilt never had it so good. Ranked and getting games on TV right and left, the Commodores are undefeated and looking forward to a bowl game this year. But waiting at the toll gate is Mississippi State, fresh from a week off to prepare and with a defense that can pull off the upset.
The pick: Mississippi State.
Colorado +14 at Kansas—Can’t be more impressed with Kansas after coming back from 0-20 deficit to win at Iowa State last week. The Buffs have been blown out by Florida State and Texas the last two weeks and now travel to pass-happy Kansas. Good thing Dan Hawkins secured pact extension early. Could be another rough day for the Buffs.
The pick: Kansas.
South Carolina -3 at Kentucky—This game features two of the best defenses in college football. The Gamecocks are coming off of a nice upset at Mississippi, catching the Rebels while still in celebration mode after beating Florida. And S.C. has been consistently good on the road for Steve Spurrier.
Kentucky, though, holds a slight defensive advantage, and has a big edge in net punting, turnover margin and yards penalized. Added up, it’s the difference between winning and losing.
The pick: Kentucky.
Nebraska +21 at Texas Tech—Bo Pellini’s team was embarrassed last week and is sure to try its best in Lubbock Saturday. And maybe the Red Raiders will go easy figuring they don’t have to do much against a team this bad. But don’t count on it. Mike Leach loves to roll it up and the last time Nebraska came to Lubbock (’04) the Huskers got pasted 70-10. This game features a team that that attacks and scores from multiple formations vs. a team that can't tackle and can't cover the pass. This looks too easy.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet).
Iowa State +5 at Baylor—Can’t see Iowa State showing up with any effort this week after heartbreaking loss at home to Kansas seven days ago. And Baylor, even in defeat, still moved the ball against Oklahoma. Like the Bears’ chances against a team that's lost 13 straight on the road. The pick: Baylor. Line has shot up after opening at 3.
Tulsa -24 at SMU—Here’s a meaningless stat: Tulsa is last in the country in field goals because they’ve only attempted three all year (making two). Probably because they get a TD most possessions. The Golden Hurricane is 5-0, winning each game by 23 or more. SMU likes to throw the ball and will get its points, too. But with nation’s 111th ranked pass defense, can’t see SMU slowing down Tulsa’s 5th rated pass attack. But beware, line fell from 25 to 24.
The pick: Tulsa.
Eastern Michigan +1 at Army—Love Army’s chances now that season is turning for them. The Cadets ended a 10-game losing streak with a 44-13 win at Tulane last week, after nearly pulling off an upset at Texas A&M the week before. Eastern Mich is still celebrating its upset over Bowling Green last week, and cares a helluva lot more about beating Akron next week than it does about the Army. Perfect setup for the Cadets to make it two in a row.
The pick: Army (best bet).
Middle Tennessee +2 at Florida Int’l—Hard to find a more improved team than FIU these days. The Golden Panthers are coming off of two impressive road victories at Toledo (35-16) and North Texas (42-10).That was after staying close to South Florida in a 17-9 defeat. Middle Tennessee is probably still talking about its Hail Mary win over Florida Atlantic and looking forward to playing Louisville next week. Love FIU in this spot.
The pick: Florida International (best bet).
Thursday
Clemson +2½ at Wake Forest—Clemson’s smoked Wake each of the last two years and needs this one badly. After beating Mississippi and FSU, Wake players figured all they needed to do was show up to beat Navy. Wrong. I’m sure Jim Grobe has their attention again, but can they reverse the hold Clemson’s had on them? No. Also, Wake two-way kicker Swank is limited which might be the difference.
The pick: Clemson.
Season: 42-41-1; Last week: 6-8
Best Bets season: 10-8; Last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
It’s been a tough few weeks but we’re hanging in there above the Mendoza Line and expect to rebound starting with this week’s picks. Note: the first six games listed this week are games of national interest and are chosen with less conviction than the last eight.
This is Southern Miss’ season. Under new coach Larry Fedora (ex Ok. State off. coord.) the Golden Eagles have shown transition problems after 17 years under Jeff Bower. After losing at home to two middle of the road teams (Marshall and UTEP), it’s hard to believe the Golden Eagles can make a game of it against Boise. The Broncos might feel they can ease off the pedal here, but look again. They’ve got to win big every chance they have to stay up in the ratings. And Southern Miss is the biggest name they face until their final game against Fresno. With nothing but patsies left on their schedule, another impressive win here is a must.
You figure Iowa should beat Indiana but it could be a tough spot for the Hawkeyes after three mentally tough games in a row…North Carolina is flexing its muscles but might find Notre Dame’s new passing offense better than it thought….Michigan State has dropped from a 3-point fave at Northwestern probably because of all the pub the Wildcats are getting for being 5-0. But can’t see them staying with tournament-tested Spartans despite recent success.
--30--
The other huge game has LSU at Florida and if things aren’t hard enough for teams going into the Swamp, an LSU lineman is bragging that they’ll take Tebow out if they can. The Gators don’t really need any more help.
This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, Army and Florida Int’l
Saturday
Texas +7 vs. Oklahoma—Last year’s 28-21 Oklahoma victory was the only one in the last six of this series to be as close as 7 points, meaning the chances that the spread comes into play are slim. Regardless, both teams have great defenses and great passing games. The Sooners seem to have the better running game, and that could be the difference. However, Oklahoma’s punting and punt coverage has been poor, which could cost them the game.
Both teams are win by huge scores and have top-five rated sack patrols. Oklahoma might have an edge for playing better competition in Cincinnati and TCU. This is a tough call but we’re going with Texas, which has a more versatile offense behind Colt McCoy.
The pick: Texas. Maybe the points will come into play, after all.
LSU +6 1/2 at Florida—LSU has far from impressed this year, and you can’t say they looked great beating offensively-challenged Auburn. Florida still lacks a credible running game but no one is cleverer than Urban Meyer figuring ways to get around that. And no one likes to cover more than Meyer, too.
The pick: Florida.
Penn State -6 at Wisconsin—Last week’s loss to Ohio State might not be as devastating to the Badgers’ Big Ten hopes as you think. A win here over Penn State puts them right back in the race. As for Ohio State, they still have to play Penn State and Michigan and travel to Illinois and Michigan State—a schedule that could easily provide two defeats.
Penn State has been tremendous both home and away, but with Michigan and the Buckeyes on tap after this, the Lions might not take Wisky that seriously. Which would be a mistake because Wisconsin won 16 straight at home before losing to Ohio State.
The pick: Wisconsin. Penn State has gotten destroyed its last two visits to Madison.
Tennessee +12 1/2 at Georgia—Going out on a limb here with Fullmer who usually comes through when his back is to the wall, and believe me Tennessee’s backs are rubbing up against it. The Vols, for all their woes, are still fifth in the nation in Total Defesne, and have thumped Georgia the last two years. Despite terrible offense and poor punting stats, going with Vols.
The pick: Tennessee.
Oklahoma State +14 at Missouri—It’s hard not to be impressed with Missouri. Last week the Tigers ended a 30-year hex by blowing out Nebraska at Lincoln. Considering how defenseless Nebraska looks this year, the only decent team the Tigers have faced is Illinois.
The Cowboys have played a schedule easier than Little League, and have dispatched them all, as expected. QB Zac Robinson is very effective and under the radar of most fans. Would be surprised if Ok. State doesn’t make a game of this, and with Mizzu looking ahead to Texas next week, an upset is possible.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Vanderbilt -2 1/2 at Mississippi State—Vanderbilt never had it so good. Ranked and getting games on TV right and left, the Commodores are undefeated and looking forward to a bowl game this year. But waiting at the toll gate is Mississippi State, fresh from a week off to prepare and with a defense that can pull off the upset.
The pick: Mississippi State.
Colorado +14 at Kansas—Can’t be more impressed with Kansas after coming back from 0-20 deficit to win at Iowa State last week. The Buffs have been blown out by Florida State and Texas the last two weeks and now travel to pass-happy Kansas. Good thing Dan Hawkins secured pact extension early. Could be another rough day for the Buffs.
The pick: Kansas.
South Carolina -3 at Kentucky—This game features two of the best defenses in college football. The Gamecocks are coming off of a nice upset at Mississippi, catching the Rebels while still in celebration mode after beating Florida. And S.C. has been consistently good on the road for Steve Spurrier.
Kentucky, though, holds a slight defensive advantage, and has a big edge in net punting, turnover margin and yards penalized. Added up, it’s the difference between winning and losing.
The pick: Kentucky.
Nebraska +21 at Texas Tech—Bo Pellini’s team was embarrassed last week and is sure to try its best in Lubbock Saturday. And maybe the Red Raiders will go easy figuring they don’t have to do much against a team this bad. But don’t count on it. Mike Leach loves to roll it up and the last time Nebraska came to Lubbock (’04) the Huskers got pasted 70-10. This game features a team that that attacks and scores from multiple formations vs. a team that can't tackle and can't cover the pass. This looks too easy.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet).
Iowa State +5 at Baylor—Can’t see Iowa State showing up with any effort this week after heartbreaking loss at home to Kansas seven days ago. And Baylor, even in defeat, still moved the ball against Oklahoma. Like the Bears’ chances against a team that's lost 13 straight on the road. The pick: Baylor. Line has shot up after opening at 3.
Tulsa -24 at SMU—Here’s a meaningless stat: Tulsa is last in the country in field goals because they’ve only attempted three all year (making two). Probably because they get a TD most possessions. The Golden Hurricane is 5-0, winning each game by 23 or more. SMU likes to throw the ball and will get its points, too. But with nation’s 111th ranked pass defense, can’t see SMU slowing down Tulsa’s 5th rated pass attack. But beware, line fell from 25 to 24.
The pick: Tulsa.
Eastern Michigan +1 at Army—Love Army’s chances now that season is turning for them. The Cadets ended a 10-game losing streak with a 44-13 win at Tulane last week, after nearly pulling off an upset at Texas A&M the week before. Eastern Mich is still celebrating its upset over Bowling Green last week, and cares a helluva lot more about beating Akron next week than it does about the Army. Perfect setup for the Cadets to make it two in a row.
The pick: Army (best bet).
Middle Tennessee +2 at Florida Int’l—Hard to find a more improved team than FIU these days. The Golden Panthers are coming off of two impressive road victories at Toledo (35-16) and North Texas (42-10).That was after staying close to South Florida in a 17-9 defeat. Middle Tennessee is probably still talking about its Hail Mary win over Florida Atlantic and looking forward to playing Louisville next week. Love FIU in this spot.
The pick: Florida International (best bet).
Thursday
Clemson +2½ at Wake Forest—Clemson’s smoked Wake each of the last two years and needs this one badly. After beating Mississippi and FSU, Wake players figured all they needed to do was show up to beat Navy. Wrong. I’m sure Jim Grobe has their attention again, but can they reverse the hold Clemson’s had on them? No. Also, Wake two-way kicker Swank is limited which might be the difference.
The pick: Clemson.
Season: 42-41-1; Last week: 6-8
Best Bets season: 10-8; Last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
It’s been a tough few weeks but we’re hanging in there above the Mendoza Line and expect to rebound starting with this week’s picks. Note: the first six games listed this week are games of national interest and are chosen with less conviction than the last eight.
This is Southern Miss’ season. Under new coach Larry Fedora (ex Ok. State off. coord.) the Golden Eagles have shown transition problems after 17 years under Jeff Bower. After losing at home to two middle of the road teams (Marshall and UTEP), it’s hard to believe the Golden Eagles can make a game of it against Boise. The Broncos might feel they can ease off the pedal here, but look again. They’ve got to win big every chance they have to stay up in the ratings. And Southern Miss is the biggest name they face until their final game against Fresno. With nothing but patsies left on their schedule, another impressive win here is a must.
You figure Iowa should beat Indiana but it could be a tough spot for the Hawkeyes after three mentally tough games in a row…North Carolina is flexing its muscles but might find Notre Dame’s new passing offense better than it thought….Michigan State has dropped from a 3-point fave at Northwestern probably because of all the pub the Wildcats are getting for being 5-0. But can’t see them staying with tournament-tested Spartans despite recent success.
--30--
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Buckeyes to Get Rude Reception
Two big conference battles Saturday: Ohio State will try to break Wisconsin's 16-game home winning streak, and Auburn travels to Vanderbilt with the SEC lead at stake.
For teams like Texas and Penn State, the pressure is there to win on the road in conference and to do it with some extra mustard. Both have a chance to face either Oklahoma or Alabama in the BCS title game if they can keep on winning with authority. Be careful. Laying double digits on the road against legitimate conference foes (like Penn State and Texas have this week) can be dangerous.
This week’s best stats:
(1)Wisconsin, a slight home dog to Ohio State, has won 27 of its last 28 home games.
(2) Missouri, a 10-point favorite, has lost its last 15 visits to Nebraska.
Best Bets to date: 9-6; Last Week: 1-2
This week’s Best Bets: Kansas State, Arizona and Wisconsin
Saturday
Auburn -4 at Vanderbilt--Vandy's never been in this situation, but they've had had two weeks to prepare for this, their biggest game in years. Auburn's coming off three straight mentally and physically exhausting games: their 3-2 dogfight at Miss. State, their last second loss to LSU and last week's 14-12 battle with Tennessee. Can't see the Tigers matching the fire and effort Vandy will have in this one.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Texas Tech -7 at Kansas State—If you throw out games against Big 12 patsies SMU, Baylor and Rice, the Red Raiders have lost six outright and won a pair of close games. Besides those they lost at TCU and nearly lost at UTEP. Ron Prince is feeling the heat K-State, after nearly blowing last week’s game to La. Laff. But we suspect he’s been preparing an ambush for the Red Raiders all along. They’ll need to pull it off without top DB Gary Chandler, who is suspended. Chandler was arrested for driving without a valid license. Mayb he just didn’t want to face the Tech passing game.
The pick: Kansas State (best bet).
Ohio State -1 1/2 at Wisconsin—With Beanie back, so are the Buckeyes. But before you rush to the bank, consider that the Buckeyes are not murdering opponents yet and they do have a freshman QB going into Camp Randall for the first time. Wisconsin’s reeling from last week’s give away at Michigan, but the Badgers always get re-energized at home. In over the last four years they’ve won 27 of their last 28, losing only to Iowa in 2005.
The pick: Wisconsin (best bet).
Oregon +16 at USC—The Trojans have an amazing record of covering at home, but they rarely host a team that has the ability to keep pace with them, like this Oregon team can. Now, with the probability that Justin Roper is back at QB for the Ducks, this could be a lot closer than the experts think.
The pick: Oregon.
Missouri -10 at Nebraska—Can only think of one instance in the last five years when ‘Huskers were a double digit dog at home, and that was in loss to USC early last season.
This team is obviously a lot better defensively than that one. You can bet coach Pellini will have them ready for Mizzu team that might be starting to believe their headlines too soon.
The pick: Nebraska. Missouri has lost its last 15 trips into Lincoln.
Texas -12 at Colorado—Texas usually beats up the little guys on the road and plays the bigger guys close. This Texas team is coming around fast for Mack Brown, but they might be caught taking Colorado for granted this week. The Buffs are better than they looked at FSU and Texas hasn’t been challenged yet.
The pick: Colorado.
Kansas -11 at Iowa State—Despite last-second loss at South Florida, Kansas remains one of the most potent teams today. Week off gave Jayhawks chance to get healthy and QB Todd Reesing should be able to throw for 400 yards plus against the Cyclone secondary. Iowa State usually plays hard a couple times a year. This won’t be one of them.
The pick: Kansas.
Washington +23 at Arizona—With Jake Locker out Washington is short and its slow. Arizona has all of a sudden been revitalized and certainly has the kind of offense to make this one a laugher. If they can keep their eye on the ball.
The pick: Arizona (best bet).
Texas A&M +25 1/2 at Oklahoma State—The Aggies nearly lost to one of the worst teams in college football last week. And they were at home. Maybe they took Army for granted, or maybe they’re just awful. We vote for the latter, and on the road against a team that loves to run, this could be a ridiculous score.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Navy +5 at Air Force—Navy’s on a roll after shocking Wake Forest and unless they’re still partying after that victory, his one should be close again. The Midshipmen have won their last four against the Falcons including their last two visits West. This one is a toss up at best.
The pick: Navy.
San Diego State +24 1/2 at TCU—We think San Digeo State is going to play more like the team that almost upset Notre Dame than the team that lost at San Jose State. TCU had its lunch handed to them last week by Oklahoma and might still be in a bit of a daze. Regardless, the Aztecs have a helluva shot here.
The pick: San Diego State.
Season: 36-33; Last Week: 3-11
Second Thoughts
Want to thank the reader last week who caught our error in Houston’s schedule. Wish he had gone further and convinced us to take the Cougars. It was a tough week for nearly everyone.
The last time Tulsa lost a conference game at home was two years ago in a 41-38 shootout to Rice. This could be a repeat….Both Miami and FSU need this game badly. FSU’s better defense should prevail…
Penn State may be catching Purdue at the right time while the Boilermakers are recovering from the beating they took at South Bend last week…Rutgers will have a difficult time staying with West Virginia, a much faster team…
Alabama may decide to take the week off as they did after their first big win at Clemson, and Kentucky’s stingy defense may make easy for them to do so….Expect Cal to bury Arizona State no matter who starts at QB….
Money poured in on Duke overnight Wednesday knocking the line from 14 down to 12 ½ against Georgia Tech. Makes some sense since Duke has experience defending the option.
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For teams like Texas and Penn State, the pressure is there to win on the road in conference and to do it with some extra mustard. Both have a chance to face either Oklahoma or Alabama in the BCS title game if they can keep on winning with authority. Be careful. Laying double digits on the road against legitimate conference foes (like Penn State and Texas have this week) can be dangerous.
This week’s best stats:
(1)Wisconsin, a slight home dog to Ohio State, has won 27 of its last 28 home games.
(2) Missouri, a 10-point favorite, has lost its last 15 visits to Nebraska.
Best Bets to date: 9-6; Last Week: 1-2
This week’s Best Bets: Kansas State, Arizona and Wisconsin
Saturday
Auburn -4 at Vanderbilt--Vandy's never been in this situation, but they've had had two weeks to prepare for this, their biggest game in years. Auburn's coming off three straight mentally and physically exhausting games: their 3-2 dogfight at Miss. State, their last second loss to LSU and last week's 14-12 battle with Tennessee. Can't see the Tigers matching the fire and effort Vandy will have in this one.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Texas Tech -7 at Kansas State—If you throw out games against Big 12 patsies SMU, Baylor and Rice, the Red Raiders have lost six outright and won a pair of close games. Besides those they lost at TCU and nearly lost at UTEP. Ron Prince is feeling the heat K-State, after nearly blowing last week’s game to La. Laff. But we suspect he’s been preparing an ambush for the Red Raiders all along. They’ll need to pull it off without top DB Gary Chandler, who is suspended. Chandler was arrested for driving without a valid license. Mayb he just didn’t want to face the Tech passing game.
The pick: Kansas State (best bet).
Ohio State -1 1/2 at Wisconsin—With Beanie back, so are the Buckeyes. But before you rush to the bank, consider that the Buckeyes are not murdering opponents yet and they do have a freshman QB going into Camp Randall for the first time. Wisconsin’s reeling from last week’s give away at Michigan, but the Badgers always get re-energized at home. In over the last four years they’ve won 27 of their last 28, losing only to Iowa in 2005.
The pick: Wisconsin (best bet).
Oregon +16 at USC—The Trojans have an amazing record of covering at home, but they rarely host a team that has the ability to keep pace with them, like this Oregon team can. Now, with the probability that Justin Roper is back at QB for the Ducks, this could be a lot closer than the experts think.
The pick: Oregon.
Missouri -10 at Nebraska—Can only think of one instance in the last five years when ‘Huskers were a double digit dog at home, and that was in loss to USC early last season.
This team is obviously a lot better defensively than that one. You can bet coach Pellini will have them ready for Mizzu team that might be starting to believe their headlines too soon.
The pick: Nebraska. Missouri has lost its last 15 trips into Lincoln.
Texas -12 at Colorado—Texas usually beats up the little guys on the road and plays the bigger guys close. This Texas team is coming around fast for Mack Brown, but they might be caught taking Colorado for granted this week. The Buffs are better than they looked at FSU and Texas hasn’t been challenged yet.
The pick: Colorado.
Kansas -11 at Iowa State—Despite last-second loss at South Florida, Kansas remains one of the most potent teams today. Week off gave Jayhawks chance to get healthy and QB Todd Reesing should be able to throw for 400 yards plus against the Cyclone secondary. Iowa State usually plays hard a couple times a year. This won’t be one of them.
The pick: Kansas.
Washington +23 at Arizona—With Jake Locker out Washington is short and its slow. Arizona has all of a sudden been revitalized and certainly has the kind of offense to make this one a laugher. If they can keep their eye on the ball.
The pick: Arizona (best bet).
Texas A&M +25 1/2 at Oklahoma State—The Aggies nearly lost to one of the worst teams in college football last week. And they were at home. Maybe they took Army for granted, or maybe they’re just awful. We vote for the latter, and on the road against a team that loves to run, this could be a ridiculous score.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Navy +5 at Air Force—Navy’s on a roll after shocking Wake Forest and unless they’re still partying after that victory, his one should be close again. The Midshipmen have won their last four against the Falcons including their last two visits West. This one is a toss up at best.
The pick: Navy.
San Diego State +24 1/2 at TCU—We think San Digeo State is going to play more like the team that almost upset Notre Dame than the team that lost at San Jose State. TCU had its lunch handed to them last week by Oklahoma and might still be in a bit of a daze. Regardless, the Aztecs have a helluva shot here.
The pick: San Diego State.
Season: 36-33; Last Week: 3-11
Second Thoughts
Want to thank the reader last week who caught our error in Houston’s schedule. Wish he had gone further and convinced us to take the Cougars. It was a tough week for nearly everyone.
The last time Tulsa lost a conference game at home was two years ago in a 41-38 shootout to Rice. This could be a repeat….Both Miami and FSU need this game badly. FSU’s better defense should prevail…
Penn State may be catching Purdue at the right time while the Boilermakers are recovering from the beating they took at South Bend last week…Rutgers will have a difficult time staying with West Virginia, a much faster team…
Alabama may decide to take the week off as they did after their first big win at Clemson, and Kentucky’s stingy defense may make easy for them to do so….Expect Cal to bury Arizona State no matter who starts at QB….
Money poured in on Duke overnight Wednesday knocking the line from 14 down to 12 ½ against Georgia Tech. Makes some sense since Duke has experience defending the option.
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