“What a mess the BCS is.” That statement could have been made almost anytime in the last 10 years and probably in the next 10, but it’s never seemed truer than now. Because the college presidents have gotten into bed with the bowls and refuse to sanction a playoff, rolling up the score to embarrassing proportions has been encouraged. Encouraged, hell it’s been demanded, if you want to move up in the polls. Except we don’t call it bad sportsmanship anymore, we call it style points. I call it bullcrap.
Where is the level playing field with the BCS standings when Alabama and Florida, who are No.1 and No.2 in the AP poll (not used by the BCS) have to face off in the SEC championship and thereby eliminate one or the other’s chances? How fare is that when Ohio State or Penn State or USC don’t have to face a conference finale?
And how fare is it when some coaches in contention have a vote in the Coaches’ poll (Texas’ Mack Brown) and some coaches don’t, like Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. What’s to prevent Brown from voting Texas No.1 and Oklahoma No.25? With secret balloting that exists, who would know the difference?
Obama Can Move Mountains but Not the BCS
And these are the conditions in which the BCS exists and the BCS standings are determined. This is how we wind up with the two teams to play for the BCS title. I’d like to call it a national championship, but how can I. National championships are determined on the field, not by secret ballots or smooth-talking lobbyists.
President-elect Obama is on the verge of accomplishing some miraculous things, like getting millions of people back to work and turning around our economy. But when he pounds the table demanding an 8-team playoff, all he gets is a polite brush-off from the BCS. Maybe its time for the 99% of us who have begged for a playoff all our lives to storm the Bastille.
Thursday
Texas A&M +35 at Texas—This is the Longhorns last chance to remind the voters how good they are. They’ve got to crush A&M and hope Oklahoma State can upset the Sooners. The Aggies have surprised Texas the last two years but there was very little on the line then. No surprises here. Mack Brown says he doesn’t believe on intentionally rolling up the score. We’ll see if he means it.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Friday
West Virginia -3½ at Pittsburgh—Still a lot at stake for these two even though it looks like Cincy has the Big East BCS spot locked up. West Virginia was a 40-point fave last year when the Panthers knocked them out of the BCS title game. Since then Pitt has improved and the Mountaineers have gotten worse, which makes our choice an easy one.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Colorado +18 at Nebraska—Since beating West Virginia at home early in the season, the Buffs have gone down hill fast. And all of a sudden Nebraska has become monster in the Big 12 North with Joe Ganz having a great season both running and passing. Ever since the Huskers found themselves in an overtime loss at Texas Tech, they’ve easily defeated Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas, while getting crushed at Oklahoma. Last Saturday we found out that even the best get crushed at Oklahoma.
The pick: Nebraska (best bet).
Fresno State +21 at Boise State—Even though it looks like Boise State will lose the BCS automatic berth to Utah, the Broncos are still working on a perfect season and a very good bowl game. They were extremely impressive putting away Nevada last week and should have no problem with Fresno, which played like zombies for most of the game at San Jose.
The pick: Boise State (best bet).
Saturday
Oklahoma -7 1/2 at Oklahoma State—It’s all on the line for the Sooners. A win and they’re in, because the voters are certain to propel them ahead of Texas in the BCS standings. Getting that win won’t be easy, however. In their past three trips to Stillwater, it didn’t matter how badly the Sooners crushed their opponent the week before, they always have had trouble with the Cowboys. Three trips ago they lost, sending Les Miles to a big payday. On their last two trips they barely squeaked out victories, winning by 6 and 3 points. Have the Sooners come down from the clouds yet?
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Florida -16 at Florida State—Florida not only needs to win this game but it needs to win it big, and we think they will. This used to be a big rivalry game, but Florida has won the last four in a row. However there is hope for FSU because the last two times these teams played in Tallahassee the Gators only won by 7. But Florida has won its four conference road games this year by 24, 28, 31 and 39 points at Tennessee, Vandy, Arkansas and Georgia, and has won its other six games by spreads ranging from 23 to 58. And we all know how Urban Meyer loves to step on your throat when you’re begging for mercy.
The pick: Florida.
Auburn +14 1/2 at Alabama—It’s simple for Alabama, beat Auburn then beat Florida and they’re in the BCS championship. No style points necessary, just win. By one point if need be. Auburn, on the other hand, is looking to save its season. But Auburn has been putrid on the road, losing at Vanderbilt, Mississippii and West Virginia and barely beating Miss. State, 3-2. They might have a nice run going against the Tide, but it all ends here. This isn’t your father’s Alabama or your mother’s Auburn we’re talking ‘bout.
The pick: Alabama.
Georgia Tech +8 at Georgia—Georgia’s going to have the same problem defending Tech’s triple option that Miami had last week, and even though Georgia had extra time to prepare, seeing it in person for the first time is hard to deal with. The Bulldogs have had a disappointing season and have no chance to gain a BCS bowl bid. Besides, the last two games between these two played in Athens have been decided by three and six points.
The pick: Georgia Tech.
Miami -2 at N.C. State—The Wolfpack have found themselves a great quarterback in Russell Wilson who has developed into a showstopper for coach Tom O’Brien. Wilson has thrown for 14 TDs against just one interception this year and was flawless leading the ‘Pack to three straight victories. The last, at North Carolina, was a gem and knocked the Tar Heels out of ACC contention. A victory here makes the Wolfpack bowl eligible, too.
Miami has been up and down, winning five straight before losing at Georgia Tech last week. A victory gives Miami an 8-4 record, but we’re going with Wilson again.
The pick: N.C. State.
Maryland +6½ at Boston College—This is a winner-take-all match for the right to represent to ACC Atlantic division for the conference title next week in Tampa. The Eagles got in this position by winning two tough road games at Florida State and at Wake Forest the last two weeks. And they might have to win this with back-up QB Dominique Davis who replaced injured Chris Crane. Maryland’s lost three out of four road games this year, all by 10 or more, and got blown out on their last visit to Chestnut Hill. Going with the team with momentum.
The pick: Boston College.
Oregon +3 at Oregon State—There’s a lot on the line for Oregon State. A victory will send the Beavers to Rose Bowl for a return match with Penn State. And while Oregon has been rested with a bye week, State has been through the ringer winning tough games at Arizona last week and against Cal the week before. Can they squeeze the juice for one more? We think so because the Beavers have controlled this series recently, winning three of the last four and the Ducks have gone home winless their last three trips to Corvalis.
The pick: Oregon State. Careful, State's Qizz Rodgers looks like a late scratch (shoulder).
Notre Dame +31 1/2 at USC—Normally we’d say you can name your score here, but here’s what you need to watch out for. The Oregon State game starts an hour earlier than USC’s. If Oregon State is winning handily, the Trojans might be disappointed they can’t go to the Rose Bowl. Might be. We’ll still look for the kill here.
The pick: USC.
Last week: 6-6-1; Season: 91-82-2
Best bets last week: 2-1; season:21-18
Second Thoughts
Posting early this week because many folks are traveling including us. Will do our best to keep the point-spreads current….Texas Tech needs to wake up fast because if they beat Baylor and Oklahoma loses in Stillwater, the Red Raiders go to the Big 12 title game, and Baylor looks easy to pass against…Virginia Tech only needs to beat Virginia to go to the ACC title game…Tulsa looks almost too good giving 14 at Marshall, which has been pathetic lately….Mississippi looks like a layup against Miss. State, which is banged up and about to make wholesale changes. ...Remember the idea is to eat the turkey, not to be one. Happy Thanksgiving!
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Monday, November 24, 2008
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Texas Tech to Upset Oklahoma
This is rivalry week but all the classic get-togethers have been upstaged by Texas Tech and Oklahoma. If Tech wins they have an easy path for a spot at the BCS championship table. If Oklahoma wins it keeps them alive for a spot and assures them a BCS game no matter what they do the next week against Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma is 60-2 at home under Bob Stoops which makes the task even harder. The Red Raiders, though, are about the only team with the talent and the temperament to pull it off. And we think they will.
This week’s best bets: Miami, TCU and Rutgers.
Saturday
Texas Tech +7 at Oklahoma—It’s hard to find a tougher game to pick. We’ve been riding Texas Tech all season, a team with an offense everyone loves to watch. And now Tech has a defense to go with its offense.
Oklahoma’s riding a 25-game winning streak at home and would be tough to beat under any circumstances. But if anybody can beat them in Norman it’s the Red Raiders who had a touchdown lead at halftime in their last meeting in Norman and who has won the last two clashes in Lubbock. Most of the Tech offense played in Norman two years ago and won’t be in awe of the Sooners. With Reynolds out of the middle, Oklahoma remains somewhat vulnerable. If the line can keep Harrell clean, he’ll play pitch and catch all day.
Also, these two coaches know each other very well, with Leach being off. coordinator for Stoops before he took the Tech job seven years ago. Regardless, I can’t see a blowout happening here, either way. So with a prospect of a close game, the points are very attractive.
The pick: Texas Tech.
Pittsburgh + 6 at Cincinnati—Pitt may have gotten a bye at the wrong time now that they’re finally playing up to their potential. Cincy again has QB issues with Pike knocked for a loop late last week and Grutza looking rusty off the bench. The Panthers have won this game the last three years, and in fact, have never lost to the Bearcats.
Pitt also has been a terrific road team, winning five straight out of town. The streak started at the end of last season with their improbable 13-9 victory at West Virginia, costing the Mountaineers a chance to play for the BCS title. This year the Panthers have won at Syracuse, South Florida, Navy and Notre Dame. As good as Cincy is at home at night, Pitt won’t be intimidated. With the Big East title at stake, this also looks like a close finish.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Michigan +20½ at Ohio State—Ohio State doesn’t get a chance to blow out Michigan very often and we have a feeling they’re going to relish this opportunity. If Rodriguiz can somehow talk Michigan into a showing up it’ll be the greatest speech since Rockne. The Wolverines are hurting at QB again and are out-manned in nearly every category.
The pick: Ohio State.
BYU +7 at Utah—Ten of the last 11 meetings between this Holy War pair have been decided by 7 points or less, which should be enough to tell you which way to go here. BYU has slumped after losing to TCU, but showed some life beating Air Force last week.
Utah’s been lucky, catching Michigan before anyone knew how bad they were, and topping TCU in a game they would have never won on a neutral field. The Utes aren’t bad, mind you, but they’re certainly not as good as their No.7 ranking.
The pick: BYU.
Michigan State +15½ at Penn State—The Lions had a week to cry in their beer after blowing their title hopes at Iowa, and looked like a shadow of themselves for a half last week, before waking up to smother Indiana. Now they realize that winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl isn’t so bad after all, so expect a full out effort against the Spartans. Michigan State choked at home against Ohio State so how can you expect them to stay in the game at Happy Valley? Besides, Penn State should control both lines.
The pick: Penn State.
Boise State -6½ at Nevada—Is Nevada ready for prime time? Two years ago we thought so after three straight blow-out victories they hosted Boise and got knocked to kingdom come, 31-7. Last year the Wolf Pack lost a 69-67 zillion-overtime heartbreaker at Boise. Now they are coming to host this game off of two impressive victories, 41-28 at Fresno and 41-17 over San Jose State, two teams that are next best in the conference. Of course, Boise’s still working on a perfect season, and praying for BYU to beat Utah so it can return to a BCS bowl. In September the Pack ran for over 200 yards against Texas Tech and only trailed Tech 14-12 in the second half before finally succumbing.
The pick: Nevada. Like the Liza Minelli song, for Nevada it’s “Maybe This Time.”
Air Force +20 at TCU—After watching one-dimensional Air Force try to pass against BYU, you get the feeling they might get shutout by TCU’s great defense. Besides, TCU’s been explosive at home this year, beating Stanford by 17, BYU by 25, San Diego State by 34 and Wyoming by 47. This number seems very makeable.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
N.C. State +11 at North Carolina—There’s no question that the Tar Heels are on the verge of being a power in the ACC, and a win vs. N.C. State could send them to play for the conference title. But N.C. State has also improved by leaps and bounds. Five straight covers for one thing. And they weren’t against patsies, but teams like B.C., Florida State and last week’s victim, Wake. This is a rivalry and the Wolfpack are still undervalued.
The pick: N.C. State.
Army +18½ at Rutgers— Rutgers looks like a layup against Army with the Cadets thinking about Navy upcoming. Can’t see how Army can defend the suddenly potent Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights have won four straight and after a 1-5 start can finish 7-5 and go to a good bowl. But beware of the back door because the Cadets never give up.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
UCF +5½ at Memphis—Memphis is at home where they’ve played well this year and get QB Hall back from injury. Hall threw for 350 yards vs. Louisville before he got hurt. UCF has had problems scoring all season and usually lays an egg on the road. To add some spice, Memphis still has a shot to play for the Conference USA title.
The pick: Memphis.
Wednesday
Ball State -7 at Central Michigan—The Chips have won the last four meetings and are coming on at the right time of the year. Ball State is undefeated and looking for a challenge. The Cardinals hardly broke a sweat in their last two and should be able to move the ball through the air again. This could be one of those games won by the team who has the ball last.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Thursday
Miami +3½ at Georgia Tech—Miami is the only team this year whose defense knocked Florida around. Now the Hurricanes have realized just how good they are or could be. Facing Georgia Tech’s triple option for the first time with only a week to prepare is a tough assignment, but Miami has the fastest defense in the ACC. And if Tech falls behind the triple option isn’t designed to play catch up.
The pick: Miami (best bet), straight up.
Friday
Fresno State -3 at San Jose State—Fresno’s won four of its five road games this year and played the tougher schedule. The Bulldogs also have dominated San Jose in the series. The Spartans’ season appears to have gone downhill after losing to Boise State. Since then they squeaked passed awful Idaho and were badly beaten at home by La. Tech and trounced at Nevada.
The pick: Fresno State, which might be looking ahead to Boise next.
Season: 85-76-1; Last week: 5-7
Best Bets season: 19-17; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
Arizona vs. Oregon State is an intriguing match-up but too tough to call. Hard to believe Mike Stoops was the Oklahoma defensive coordinator before he left for Arizona. Last week the Sun Devils defense leaked 55 points Oregon’s way. Who among you wouldn’t have taken Arizona +6 last week if you knew they were going to score 45?
Stanford’s been in one tough game after another and just when they need a break they face Cal in the big one at Cal. Gotta think Stanford finally collapses here…Maryland is undefeated at home and has a way of winning the close ones. FSU might have thrown it all away last week in a campus brawl, and the hangover from that will probably hand the victory to the Terps….
Believe it or not, money is pouring in on Washington State in the Apple Cup. The line opened with the Huskies favored by 9½ and dropped down to 7½ in two days. Hard to believe that anyone would bet this game, let alone on State….
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Oklahoma is 60-2 at home under Bob Stoops which makes the task even harder. The Red Raiders, though, are about the only team with the talent and the temperament to pull it off. And we think they will.
This week’s best bets: Miami, TCU and Rutgers.
Saturday
Texas Tech +7 at Oklahoma—It’s hard to find a tougher game to pick. We’ve been riding Texas Tech all season, a team with an offense everyone loves to watch. And now Tech has a defense to go with its offense.
Oklahoma’s riding a 25-game winning streak at home and would be tough to beat under any circumstances. But if anybody can beat them in Norman it’s the Red Raiders who had a touchdown lead at halftime in their last meeting in Norman and who has won the last two clashes in Lubbock. Most of the Tech offense played in Norman two years ago and won’t be in awe of the Sooners. With Reynolds out of the middle, Oklahoma remains somewhat vulnerable. If the line can keep Harrell clean, he’ll play pitch and catch all day.
Also, these two coaches know each other very well, with Leach being off. coordinator for Stoops before he took the Tech job seven years ago. Regardless, I can’t see a blowout happening here, either way. So with a prospect of a close game, the points are very attractive.
The pick: Texas Tech.
Pittsburgh + 6 at Cincinnati—Pitt may have gotten a bye at the wrong time now that they’re finally playing up to their potential. Cincy again has QB issues with Pike knocked for a loop late last week and Grutza looking rusty off the bench. The Panthers have won this game the last three years, and in fact, have never lost to the Bearcats.
Pitt also has been a terrific road team, winning five straight out of town. The streak started at the end of last season with their improbable 13-9 victory at West Virginia, costing the Mountaineers a chance to play for the BCS title. This year the Panthers have won at Syracuse, South Florida, Navy and Notre Dame. As good as Cincy is at home at night, Pitt won’t be intimidated. With the Big East title at stake, this also looks like a close finish.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Michigan +20½ at Ohio State—Ohio State doesn’t get a chance to blow out Michigan very often and we have a feeling they’re going to relish this opportunity. If Rodriguiz can somehow talk Michigan into a showing up it’ll be the greatest speech since Rockne. The Wolverines are hurting at QB again and are out-manned in nearly every category.
The pick: Ohio State.
BYU +7 at Utah—Ten of the last 11 meetings between this Holy War pair have been decided by 7 points or less, which should be enough to tell you which way to go here. BYU has slumped after losing to TCU, but showed some life beating Air Force last week.
Utah’s been lucky, catching Michigan before anyone knew how bad they were, and topping TCU in a game they would have never won on a neutral field. The Utes aren’t bad, mind you, but they’re certainly not as good as their No.7 ranking.
The pick: BYU.
Michigan State +15½ at Penn State—The Lions had a week to cry in their beer after blowing their title hopes at Iowa, and looked like a shadow of themselves for a half last week, before waking up to smother Indiana. Now they realize that winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl isn’t so bad after all, so expect a full out effort against the Spartans. Michigan State choked at home against Ohio State so how can you expect them to stay in the game at Happy Valley? Besides, Penn State should control both lines.
The pick: Penn State.
Boise State -6½ at Nevada—Is Nevada ready for prime time? Two years ago we thought so after three straight blow-out victories they hosted Boise and got knocked to kingdom come, 31-7. Last year the Wolf Pack lost a 69-67 zillion-overtime heartbreaker at Boise. Now they are coming to host this game off of two impressive victories, 41-28 at Fresno and 41-17 over San Jose State, two teams that are next best in the conference. Of course, Boise’s still working on a perfect season, and praying for BYU to beat Utah so it can return to a BCS bowl. In September the Pack ran for over 200 yards against Texas Tech and only trailed Tech 14-12 in the second half before finally succumbing.
The pick: Nevada. Like the Liza Minelli song, for Nevada it’s “Maybe This Time.”
Air Force +20 at TCU—After watching one-dimensional Air Force try to pass against BYU, you get the feeling they might get shutout by TCU’s great defense. Besides, TCU’s been explosive at home this year, beating Stanford by 17, BYU by 25, San Diego State by 34 and Wyoming by 47. This number seems very makeable.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
N.C. State +11 at North Carolina—There’s no question that the Tar Heels are on the verge of being a power in the ACC, and a win vs. N.C. State could send them to play for the conference title. But N.C. State has also improved by leaps and bounds. Five straight covers for one thing. And they weren’t against patsies, but teams like B.C., Florida State and last week’s victim, Wake. This is a rivalry and the Wolfpack are still undervalued.
The pick: N.C. State.
Army +18½ at Rutgers— Rutgers looks like a layup against Army with the Cadets thinking about Navy upcoming. Can’t see how Army can defend the suddenly potent Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights have won four straight and after a 1-5 start can finish 7-5 and go to a good bowl. But beware of the back door because the Cadets never give up.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
UCF +5½ at Memphis—Memphis is at home where they’ve played well this year and get QB Hall back from injury. Hall threw for 350 yards vs. Louisville before he got hurt. UCF has had problems scoring all season and usually lays an egg on the road. To add some spice, Memphis still has a shot to play for the Conference USA title.
The pick: Memphis.
Wednesday
Ball State -7 at Central Michigan—The Chips have won the last four meetings and are coming on at the right time of the year. Ball State is undefeated and looking for a challenge. The Cardinals hardly broke a sweat in their last two and should be able to move the ball through the air again. This could be one of those games won by the team who has the ball last.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Thursday
Miami +3½ at Georgia Tech—Miami is the only team this year whose defense knocked Florida around. Now the Hurricanes have realized just how good they are or could be. Facing Georgia Tech’s triple option for the first time with only a week to prepare is a tough assignment, but Miami has the fastest defense in the ACC. And if Tech falls behind the triple option isn’t designed to play catch up.
The pick: Miami (best bet), straight up.
Friday
Fresno State -3 at San Jose State—Fresno’s won four of its five road games this year and played the tougher schedule. The Bulldogs also have dominated San Jose in the series. The Spartans’ season appears to have gone downhill after losing to Boise State. Since then they squeaked passed awful Idaho and were badly beaten at home by La. Tech and trounced at Nevada.
The pick: Fresno State, which might be looking ahead to Boise next.
Season: 85-76-1; Last week: 5-7
Best Bets season: 19-17; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
Arizona vs. Oregon State is an intriguing match-up but too tough to call. Hard to believe Mike Stoops was the Oklahoma defensive coordinator before he left for Arizona. Last week the Sun Devils defense leaked 55 points Oregon’s way. Who among you wouldn’t have taken Arizona +6 last week if you knew they were going to score 45?
Stanford’s been in one tough game after another and just when they need a break they face Cal in the big one at Cal. Gotta think Stanford finally collapses here…Maryland is undefeated at home and has a way of winning the close ones. FSU might have thrown it all away last week in a campus brawl, and the hangover from that will probably hand the victory to the Terps….
Believe it or not, money is pouring in on Washington State in the Apple Cup. The line opened with the Huskies favored by 9½ and dropped down to 7½ in two days. Hard to believe that anyone would bet this game, let alone on State….
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Sunday, November 16, 2008
What's Wrong with Urban Meyer?
Urban Meyer makes the term "killer instinct" look like group therapy. Someone must have taken away his lolly when he was two. Or maybe he didn't get a chance to ride the new bike on his block. Whatever his problem is he should see a shrink, and stop taking it out on everyone else in the Southeast Conference.
What? Wasn't it good enough that his Gators were completely dominating Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks last Saturday, leading 42-6 in the fourth quarter? No, I guess not. It wasn't good enough for Meyer until he had Spurrier and the Gamecocks completely humiliated. By having his Heisman QB, Tim Tebow, still in the game passing, and Percy Harvin still in slashing, he was rubbing dirt in the opposition's face. Not to mention risking injuries to his stars.
Was Meyer looking for style points? Whoever said humiliation was a style to be admired? Was Meyer afraid the BCS wouldn't remember that he his team laid 50 humiliating points on LSU and 49 on Georgia, and just for the fun of it he had his team score 63 against Kentucky, which had the nerve to score five of its own points. Several of those final TDs in the Kentucky game came late with Tebow still out there.
What's he proving? Does he think we hadn't noticed that his team is worthy of playing for the BCS championship? Maybe he figures that the rest of us will assume Florida's better than Texas (which is fighting the Gators for a possible spot in the finals) because Texas only won 35-7. He must think that Texas coach Mack Brown is a sucker for not running it up on Kansas. Some might even call Brown a gentleman, but Brown, too, should be admonished for having his quarterback, Colt McCoy, still playing in the fourth quarter.
You'd think Spurrier was some horrible human being the way Meyer's team stripped Spurrier's of any dignity that remained. 56-6. Wasn't 42-6 enough? The Sunday morning headlines screamed that Florida had handed Spurrier, a great coach, his worst defeat ever. It's exactly what Meyer was looking for. But Spurrier's greatness happened while coaching Florida. Maybe that was what Meyer was after--to leave no doubt about who was Florida's greatest coach.
Now let's talk about the Georgia game for a second. Okay, maybe Georgia did over-do it last year when the whole team ran on the field to celebrate its first score. This year's final score of 49-10 should have been revenge enough. The final score spoke for itself. But no, Meyer had to call two timeouts in the final seconds to rub it in Georgia's face some more and humiliate its coaching staff.
Maybe Meyer's doing all this because he's mad at himself for not having his team prepared when it lost 31-30 to Mississippi. But for some reason he didn't, and they lost. AT HOME! Which is no reason to humiliate every other team on the schedule.
Meyer is the type of guy that when he's got you on the ground and you're begging for mercy, he steps on your throat and smiles. Meyer has said he doesn't like to talk to the opposing coach before a game because he thinks it's phoney. Maybe it's because he's gutless; afraid to share a kind word with someone he intends to destroy and humiliate.
One day Urban Meyer's teams will not be so good. They might even be just a little above average like Spurrier's. When that day comes every coach in the Southeast Conference will return the favor. But they'll probably do it with a lot more class. It would be hard not to.
Unfortunately, we live in a society that has rewarded Meyer and his team for their blowout, humiliating victories by voting them higher in the polls. So when we ask, what's wrong with Urban Meyer, the answer might be: what's wrong with us.
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What? Wasn't it good enough that his Gators were completely dominating Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks last Saturday, leading 42-6 in the fourth quarter? No, I guess not. It wasn't good enough for Meyer until he had Spurrier and the Gamecocks completely humiliated. By having his Heisman QB, Tim Tebow, still in the game passing, and Percy Harvin still in slashing, he was rubbing dirt in the opposition's face. Not to mention risking injuries to his stars.
Was Meyer looking for style points? Whoever said humiliation was a style to be admired? Was Meyer afraid the BCS wouldn't remember that he his team laid 50 humiliating points on LSU and 49 on Georgia, and just for the fun of it he had his team score 63 against Kentucky, which had the nerve to score five of its own points. Several of those final TDs in the Kentucky game came late with Tebow still out there.
What's he proving? Does he think we hadn't noticed that his team is worthy of playing for the BCS championship? Maybe he figures that the rest of us will assume Florida's better than Texas (which is fighting the Gators for a possible spot in the finals) because Texas only won 35-7. He must think that Texas coach Mack Brown is a sucker for not running it up on Kansas. Some might even call Brown a gentleman, but Brown, too, should be admonished for having his quarterback, Colt McCoy, still playing in the fourth quarter.
You'd think Spurrier was some horrible human being the way Meyer's team stripped Spurrier's of any dignity that remained. 56-6. Wasn't 42-6 enough? The Sunday morning headlines screamed that Florida had handed Spurrier, a great coach, his worst defeat ever. It's exactly what Meyer was looking for. But Spurrier's greatness happened while coaching Florida. Maybe that was what Meyer was after--to leave no doubt about who was Florida's greatest coach.
Now let's talk about the Georgia game for a second. Okay, maybe Georgia did over-do it last year when the whole team ran on the field to celebrate its first score. This year's final score of 49-10 should have been revenge enough. The final score spoke for itself. But no, Meyer had to call two timeouts in the final seconds to rub it in Georgia's face some more and humiliate its coaching staff.
Maybe Meyer's doing all this because he's mad at himself for not having his team prepared when it lost 31-30 to Mississippi. But for some reason he didn't, and they lost. AT HOME! Which is no reason to humiliate every other team on the schedule.
Meyer is the type of guy that when he's got you on the ground and you're begging for mercy, he steps on your throat and smiles. Meyer has said he doesn't like to talk to the opposing coach before a game because he thinks it's phoney. Maybe it's because he's gutless; afraid to share a kind word with someone he intends to destroy and humiliate.
One day Urban Meyer's teams will not be so good. They might even be just a little above average like Spurrier's. When that day comes every coach in the Southeast Conference will return the favor. But they'll probably do it with a lot more class. It would be hard not to.
Unfortunately, we live in a society that has rewarded Meyer and his team for their blowout, humiliating victories by voting them higher in the polls. So when we ask, what's wrong with Urban Meyer, the answer might be: what's wrong with us.
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Danger Ahead for Texas, Mizzu & BYU
The traps are set and waiting for Texas, Missouri and BYU. The question is: can they avoid them? All three have major dates just ahead. All three are on road and may be looking past this week’s pesky opponents.
Texas visits Kansas, which has won 15 of its last 16 home games. Missouri, which looks like a lock to play for the Big 12 title, is nearly a four-touchdown favorite at Iowa State Saturday. The Cyclones nearly knocked off Kansas at home last month and last year upset Kansas State and Colorado and scared the pants off Oklahoma. BYU has to be thinking about Utah next week—even though their coach refuses to mention the game—while a very good Air Force team awaits.
Two other big favorites may also be taking this week’s opponents for granted. Ohio State, which is thinking about Michigan, has to visit Illinois which laid down for Western Michigan last week, but upset the Buckeyes last year; and Oklahoma State, which has its “Bedlam” game with the Sooners in two weeks, visits Colorado.
Last week: 8-4; Season: 80-69-1
Best bets last week: 2-1; Season: 18-15
This week’s best bets: Michigan, Oregon State and Tulsa.
Saturday
Mississippi State +22 at Alabama—Mississippi State has beaten Alabama the last two years, a fact that cost the last Alabama coach his job. And once again the Bulldogs will bring their best game to Tuscaloosa. It doesn’t matter that Alabama’s No.1 and that Miss. State is mediocre, Croom knows how to get his team ready for the Tide. And with the LSU scare barely behind them and the thought of playing Florida for the SEC championship, it might be hard for Alabama to focus this week.
The pick: Mississippi State, with some reluctance.
Texas -14 at Kansas—Texas better not look past Kansas because if they do they might be looking past a chance to be in the BCS finale. Kansas is a tough ticket at home losing just once in their last 16 home games, (vs. Texas Tech last month). Their previous loss was three seasons back in a low-scoring game vs. Oklahoma.
The Longhorns are good but they still give up points, yielding a 30 point average their last five games, and Kansas can score with the best of them. On the other hand, Nebraska had no trouble throwing against the KU secondary last week which bodes well for Colt McCoy. Sounds like a shootout.
The pick: Kansas.
USC-24 at Stanford—Okay, so you think USC has revenge on its mind for the way Stanford messed up the Trojans’ season last year. Maybe they do but if they can’t move the ball better than their performance against Cal, they’ll have a hard time pulling away. Normally the Cardinal would be down after letting Oregon score late and beat them last week, but not with USC coming to Palo Alto, and not when they need one more win to go bowling.
The pick: Stanford. This is Stanford's last home game.
Notre Dame -4 at Navy—The Irish looked like they were heading to a big bowl game before blowing a 2 TD lead to Pitt two weeks ago and getting shut out at B.C. last week. Now they’re wondering how to score again. Last year Navy finally cracked ND’s 43-year hex and won one. With their triple option as hard to defend as ever, this could be two in a row. The Midshipmen have won five of their last six including wins at Wake Forest and Air Force. Going with the hot team.
The pick: Navy.
Rutgers +8 at South Florida--Rutgers finally has put it together, winning three straight, and Teel looks terrific throwing the ball. Defending the pass is South Florida's biggest problem. After losing three of the last four USF called a team meeting. Not sure it will change things.
The pick: Rutgers.
BYU -4 at Air Force—BYU has blown out Air Force by anywhere from 17 to 25 points in their last four meetings. Why not again this year? Well, maybe they will, but this Air Force team seems much tougher. They’ve only lost in the last minute to Utah and the following week to Navy, which could have been a hangover game, too. Ever since BYU lost to TCU they’ve been sluggish and maybe they’re just biding their time until the Utah game next week. Regardless, this looks like a tough match up for the Cougars.
The pick: Air Force.
Cal +3 1/2 at Oregon State—Oregon State’s got a tough schedule with Cal and Oregon ahead but at least they control their own destiny. Cal is coming off two bruising games against Oregon and USC and we don’t think they can match the same intensity here.
The pick: Oregon State (best bet).
Northwestern +3 1/2 at Michigan—Northwestern seems all beat up and Michigan is finally coming on. Maybe they’re looking ahead to the Ohio State game and maybe they’re just going to be way too much for the Wildcats to handle on the road. We think it’s the latter.
The pick: Michigan (best bet).
Missouri -27 at Iowa State—Just a side note if you got back-doored with Missouri last week. The Tigers were ahead (and covering) 41-10 with 1:11 to go and had K-State backed up to its own seven when they let somebody score on a 93-yard trot. Which brings us to this game at Iowa State, a team that can jump up and surprise you at any time. The Cyclones have been up and down this year but hung tough at Iowa, lost by just two at home to Kansas, and came this close to an upset last week at Colorado. Expect the Cyclones to put forth one more big effort here while Missouri is thinking about their game with Kansas next week or maybe the Big 12 championship game the week after.
The pick: Iowa State.
Tulsa -4 at Houston—Tulsa had a bye last week and needed it to get the Arkansas loss out of their system. In that game the Golden Hurricane made mistake after mistake and still were in position to even the game in the final minute. In fact they matched up and down the field against Arkansas time after time. Now they’ve got to focus on Houston if they want to play for the Conference USA title. And Houston should be easy pickings, even on the road. Tulsa’s got the better offense and while both teams like to throw it, Tulsa’s also got the better defense.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Thursday
Virginia Tech +4 1/2 at Miami
The pick: Virginia Tech
Second Thoughts
Last week’s 8-4 mark pulled us 11 games over the Mendoza line once again. For a long while I thought about making Texas Tech our lone best bet last week, and still don’t understand USC’s conservative offense. Regret taking Penn State after mentioning they always have trouble with Iowa, especially after a bye. Texas Tech last week proved you can't rely on the smart money, which pounded Oklahoma State down from 7 to 3 by game time.
We pulled the Florida State/Boston College game from the grid because the game's been taken off the board due to possible suspensions FSU may incur from a brawl....Can’t help thinking about next week’s Texas Tech-Oklahoma game. Both teams are offensive machines. The Sooners are nearly unbeatable in Norman, having won 60 of the 62 games Bob Stoops has coached there, including their last 25 straight. The Red Raiders have beaten Oklahoma, but not in Norman, coming no closer than 10 points in their three tries under Mike Leach. In fact they’ve won two of the last three meetings, but both were in Lubbock. With a week off to build up a game that needs no hype, it has the true feeling of a Super Bowl.
Hard to see Ohio State taking Illinois seriously after watching tapes of the Illini’s laydown at Western Michigan last week, but you better believe that the Illini will bring everything they’ve got to the table here, as they’d rather beat Ohio State than win the Big 10….Leaning toward N.C. at Maryland but Terps are a tough turtle at home…Rutgers has looked good the last two weeks and should give USF all it wants….
Washington, just a 7-point dog this week at home against beaten up UCLA, might smell its big chance to get off the schneid. Expect the Huskies to pull off the upset….Syracuse is playing hard for coach Robinson an could make UCONN their second straight upset at home…The gamblers seem to like Steve Spurrier’s S.C. Gamecocks’ chance of covering big spread and have knocked the price down to 21, but how can you bet against Florida at home when they beat everybody by 50 and love to run up the score?
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Texas visits Kansas, which has won 15 of its last 16 home games. Missouri, which looks like a lock to play for the Big 12 title, is nearly a four-touchdown favorite at Iowa State Saturday. The Cyclones nearly knocked off Kansas at home last month and last year upset Kansas State and Colorado and scared the pants off Oklahoma. BYU has to be thinking about Utah next week—even though their coach refuses to mention the game—while a very good Air Force team awaits.
Two other big favorites may also be taking this week’s opponents for granted. Ohio State, which is thinking about Michigan, has to visit Illinois which laid down for Western Michigan last week, but upset the Buckeyes last year; and Oklahoma State, which has its “Bedlam” game with the Sooners in two weeks, visits Colorado.
Last week: 8-4; Season: 80-69-1
Best bets last week: 2-1; Season: 18-15
This week’s best bets: Michigan, Oregon State and Tulsa.
Saturday
Mississippi State +22 at Alabama—Mississippi State has beaten Alabama the last two years, a fact that cost the last Alabama coach his job. And once again the Bulldogs will bring their best game to Tuscaloosa. It doesn’t matter that Alabama’s No.1 and that Miss. State is mediocre, Croom knows how to get his team ready for the Tide. And with the LSU scare barely behind them and the thought of playing Florida for the SEC championship, it might be hard for Alabama to focus this week.
The pick: Mississippi State, with some reluctance.
Texas -14 at Kansas—Texas better not look past Kansas because if they do they might be looking past a chance to be in the BCS finale. Kansas is a tough ticket at home losing just once in their last 16 home games, (vs. Texas Tech last month). Their previous loss was three seasons back in a low-scoring game vs. Oklahoma.
The Longhorns are good but they still give up points, yielding a 30 point average their last five games, and Kansas can score with the best of them. On the other hand, Nebraska had no trouble throwing against the KU secondary last week which bodes well for Colt McCoy. Sounds like a shootout.
The pick: Kansas.
USC-24 at Stanford—Okay, so you think USC has revenge on its mind for the way Stanford messed up the Trojans’ season last year. Maybe they do but if they can’t move the ball better than their performance against Cal, they’ll have a hard time pulling away. Normally the Cardinal would be down after letting Oregon score late and beat them last week, but not with USC coming to Palo Alto, and not when they need one more win to go bowling.
The pick: Stanford. This is Stanford's last home game.
Notre Dame -4 at Navy—The Irish looked like they were heading to a big bowl game before blowing a 2 TD lead to Pitt two weeks ago and getting shut out at B.C. last week. Now they’re wondering how to score again. Last year Navy finally cracked ND’s 43-year hex and won one. With their triple option as hard to defend as ever, this could be two in a row. The Midshipmen have won five of their last six including wins at Wake Forest and Air Force. Going with the hot team.
The pick: Navy.
Rutgers +8 at South Florida--Rutgers finally has put it together, winning three straight, and Teel looks terrific throwing the ball. Defending the pass is South Florida's biggest problem. After losing three of the last four USF called a team meeting. Not sure it will change things.
The pick: Rutgers.
BYU -4 at Air Force—BYU has blown out Air Force by anywhere from 17 to 25 points in their last four meetings. Why not again this year? Well, maybe they will, but this Air Force team seems much tougher. They’ve only lost in the last minute to Utah and the following week to Navy, which could have been a hangover game, too. Ever since BYU lost to TCU they’ve been sluggish and maybe they’re just biding their time until the Utah game next week. Regardless, this looks like a tough match up for the Cougars.
The pick: Air Force.
Cal +3 1/2 at Oregon State—Oregon State’s got a tough schedule with Cal and Oregon ahead but at least they control their own destiny. Cal is coming off two bruising games against Oregon and USC and we don’t think they can match the same intensity here.
The pick: Oregon State (best bet).
Northwestern +3 1/2 at Michigan—Northwestern seems all beat up and Michigan is finally coming on. Maybe they’re looking ahead to the Ohio State game and maybe they’re just going to be way too much for the Wildcats to handle on the road. We think it’s the latter.
The pick: Michigan (best bet).
Missouri -27 at Iowa State—Just a side note if you got back-doored with Missouri last week. The Tigers were ahead (and covering) 41-10 with 1:11 to go and had K-State backed up to its own seven when they let somebody score on a 93-yard trot. Which brings us to this game at Iowa State, a team that can jump up and surprise you at any time. The Cyclones have been up and down this year but hung tough at Iowa, lost by just two at home to Kansas, and came this close to an upset last week at Colorado. Expect the Cyclones to put forth one more big effort here while Missouri is thinking about their game with Kansas next week or maybe the Big 12 championship game the week after.
The pick: Iowa State.
Tulsa -4 at Houston—Tulsa had a bye last week and needed it to get the Arkansas loss out of their system. In that game the Golden Hurricane made mistake after mistake and still were in position to even the game in the final minute. In fact they matched up and down the field against Arkansas time after time. Now they’ve got to focus on Houston if they want to play for the Conference USA title. And Houston should be easy pickings, even on the road. Tulsa’s got the better offense and while both teams like to throw it, Tulsa’s also got the better defense.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Thursday
Virginia Tech +4 1/2 at Miami
The pick: Virginia Tech
Friday
Cincinnati -4 at Louisville
The pick: Cincinnati
Second Thoughts
Last week’s 8-4 mark pulled us 11 games over the Mendoza line once again. For a long while I thought about making Texas Tech our lone best bet last week, and still don’t understand USC’s conservative offense. Regret taking Penn State after mentioning they always have trouble with Iowa, especially after a bye. Texas Tech last week proved you can't rely on the smart money, which pounded Oklahoma State down from 7 to 3 by game time.
We pulled the Florida State/Boston College game from the grid because the game's been taken off the board due to possible suspensions FSU may incur from a brawl....Can’t help thinking about next week’s Texas Tech-Oklahoma game. Both teams are offensive machines. The Sooners are nearly unbeatable in Norman, having won 60 of the 62 games Bob Stoops has coached there, including their last 25 straight. The Red Raiders have beaten Oklahoma, but not in Norman, coming no closer than 10 points in their three tries under Mike Leach. In fact they’ve won two of the last three meetings, but both were in Lubbock. With a week off to build up a game that needs no hype, it has the true feeling of a Super Bowl.
Hard to see Ohio State taking Illinois seriously after watching tapes of the Illini’s laydown at Western Michigan last week, but you better believe that the Illini will bring everything they’ve got to the table here, as they’d rather beat Ohio State than win the Big 10….Leaning toward N.C. at Maryland but Terps are a tough turtle at home…Rutgers has looked good the last two weeks and should give USF all it wants….
Washington, just a 7-point dog this week at home against beaten up UCLA, might smell its big chance to get off the schneid. Expect the Huskies to pull off the upset….Syracuse is playing hard for coach Robinson an could make UCONN their second straight upset at home…The gamblers seem to like Steve Spurrier’s S.C. Gamecocks’ chance of covering big spread and have knocked the price down to 21, but how can you bet against Florida at home when they beat everybody by 50 and love to run up the score?
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Tuesday, November 4, 2008
This Is No Time to Ease off the Gas for Texas Tech, Penn State and Tide
Texas Tech might not be No.1 yet, but the Red Raiders play the most entertaining football and will host another red hot team when Oklahoma State comes to Lubbock Saturday night. Last year Boone Pickins’ Cowboys won 49-45 when Michael Crabtree, of all people, dropped what would have been the winning TD pass for Tech.
The pressure will be on the Red Raiders, along with No.1 Alabama and No.3 Penn State, to win in convincing fashion. Joe Paterno might not like it, but that’s how the voters and the computers see the game these days: blow them out or you’re worthless. We’re not sure about blowouts, but we think all three will cover.
This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, USC and Stanford.
Saturday
Oklahoma State +3 at Texas Tech—This game is sandwiched in between two huge games for Texas Tech: last week’s amazing victory over Texas and Oklahoma (in two weeks). But despite the celebrating, we don’t expect a letdown. History tells us the Red Raiders have shown an ability to recover quickly the week after the Texas game, as long as that opponent isn’t the Sooners. Besides, Oklahoma State’s secondary is going to have a lot more trouble than it did against Missouri and Texas.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet). Leach will have them ready.
Alabama -3½ at LSU—Can’t see Alabama blowing it now. The Tide is exactly where they want to be and only have to win this to remain No.1. LSU has slipped, especially on defense, yielding 50+ to both Georgia and Florida, and doesn’t seem to have the heart to put an upset together here.
The pick: Alabama.
Penn State -7½ at Iowa—Will Joe Paterno get screwed out of another national championship with an undefeated team? Could be, especially if his Lions can’t put away Iowa and Michigan State with gusto. Paterno’s team has had a week off to recover from Ohio State and prepare for the improved Hawkeyes. Expect them to attack through the air.
The Hawkeyes have the Big Ten’s best red zone defense and will face the conference’s best red zone offense in Penn State. A victory would make Iowa’s season. Paterno needs to win big and hope for somebody to lose.
The pick: Penn State. Careful, though. Two of the last three times the Lions have had a bye week, they returned with a loss—against Iowa.
Cal +22 at USC—Cal continues to have quarterback problems even though Nate Longshore had success coming off the bench last week against Oregon. Longshore, though, will be a sitting duck against USC’s defense and Cal has been close to dreadful on the road this year.
USC has won its four home games this year all by at least 28 points, and the Trojans have a terrific record covering in big home games against Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame, winning their last six home meetings vs. that trio by an average of 22 points. And let’s not forget their 32-point blowout of Ohio State this year.
The pick: USC (best bet ). This game opened with Trojans an 18-point fave.
Kansas +1 at Nebraska—The Cornhuskers are embarrassed (again) after getting hammered in Norman last week and will show up big time for Kansas. Especially with payback in mind for last year’s humiliating 76-39 loss. Kansas played a near perfect game last week beating in-state rival Kansas State but its doubtful they can play that well on the road. And it’s been 40 years, 1968, since the Jayhawks won at Lincoln.
The pick: Nebraska.
Georgia Tech +4 at North Carolina—With Nesbitt at QB for Georgia Tech the Yellow Jackets have a shot to win this, but Nesbitt looks doubtful and second string QB Jaybo Shaw was very shaky in relief last week, throwing a pick and fumbling one away. Maybe he’ll be better if he gets the whole week to prepare, but N.C. had an extra week off to get ready for Tech’s triple option.
The pick: North Carolina. The Tar Heels are hot at home.
Notre Dame +3½ at Boston College—Last week’s 4 overtime loss at home to Pitt, after blowing a two touchdown lead, was devastating for Notre Dame’s season. B.C. is still 5-3 and can get to a decent bowl game with a win over the Irish. Not that the Eagles can be trusted (after allowing Clemson to take a 17-0 lead on their home field, only to recapture the lead, 21-17 and then blow it). The Irish can’t seem to beat a team with a winning record (1-10 the last two years).
The pick: Boston College. We don’t really trust either team but BC's won the last five meetings.
Cincinnati +6½ at West Virginia—West Virginia’s got its Mojo back, having won five in a row, and is playing with a ton of confidence. The Bearcats are much tougher at home than on the road where they tackle with much less efficiency. The Mountaineers have also beaten Cincinnati each of the last three years, all of them convincingly. At least the Bearcats’ QB situation looks ok with Tony Pike throwing again and Dustin Grutza a healthy back-up.
The pick: West Virginia. Rain in the forecast should works to West Virginia’s advantage.
Stanford +14 at Oregon—This isn’t your father’s Stanford or your mother’s Oregon. Under Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal have become a tough, rugged bunch who run the ball with the best of them. These teams are tied at 4-2 in the Pac-10 with a big bowl game hanging in the balance to the team that finishes second. With Oregon coming off of an emotionally difficult loss at Cal, the Ducks might just take Stanford for granted.
The pick: Stanford (best bet), in a surprising upset.
Wednesday
N. Illinois + 9½ at Ball State—Northern Illinois has won five of its last six, while not giving any of those opponents more than 13 points. Its three defeats were 31-27 at Minnesota, 29-26 at W. Michigan and 13-9 at Tennessee. All three were tough losses vs. very respectable con-conference competition. Now the Huskies visit undefeated Ball State, which is dedicating its season to injured WR Dante Love. Impressive as the Cardinals have been, they haven’t faced anyone with a defense all season. With this being a huge MAC match up, we expect this to be a close one.
The pick: Northern Illinois.
Thursday
TCU -2 at Utah—As impressive as TCU has looked blowing out BYU, Wyoming and UNLV the last three weeks, and as unimpressive as Utah looked edging out New Mexico last week, we’re going with the Utes. Home field often means everything in these classic Mountain West games and we suspect that Utah was holding back against the Lobos. Can’t fault those liking TCU in this spot, though. The Horned Frogs have been one of the best defensive teams in the country, but Utah may have their number winning the last two meetings.
The pick: Utah.
Maryland +3 at Virginia Tech—Without even knowing who the QB will be for Virginia Tech, we’re going to take the Hokies in this spot. First of all beamer doesn’t lose often at home in November. Exactly once (to Miami) in the last five years. Second of all, Maryland has not exactly lit things up on the road this year. They lost at Middle Tennessee, nearly lost at Clemson to a team that was disintegrating and then got blown out, 31-0, at Virginia. Enough said.
The pick: Virginia Tech.
Season 72-65; Last week: 4-8
Best Bets, season: 16-14; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
About last week. We don’t usually review like this, but last week was a bit unusual. While we nailed the big games (Texas Tech and Florida), we saw Virginia and Notre Dame blow comfortable leads at home, Tulsa march up and down the field and do everything but beat Arkansas, and Oregon lose a tough one at Cal. Happens to the best of them. Now let’s move on….
Decimating your opponent doesn’t guarantee you’ll move up in the polls. Just look at Oklahoma and USC. After burying Nebraska 62-28 last week, the Sooners dropped two spots from fourth to sixth in the BCS standings and USC also dropped two spots after a 56-0 victory….The last three times Ohio State had a bye it returned with a road loss, including one at Northwestern, which is this week’s opponent.
Look for a Kansas State collapse at Mizzu after coach was pulled away from the team….Maybe the opposite effect at Tennessee where Fulmer is loved and the opponent, Wyoming, looks helpless….Expecting a letdown by Wisky at Indiana after last second loss last week…Minny might be ripe for an upset by Michigan after their season fell apart with last second loss to NW last week.
Condolences to those who had TCU Thursday night. The Frogs are big, fast and mean and beat Utah like a drum for 59 minutes but couldn't hold on for the final drive. Two short missed field goals in the fourth quarter helped the Utes along with a good third-down defense and a great home crowd.
--30--
The pressure will be on the Red Raiders, along with No.1 Alabama and No.3 Penn State, to win in convincing fashion. Joe Paterno might not like it, but that’s how the voters and the computers see the game these days: blow them out or you’re worthless. We’re not sure about blowouts, but we think all three will cover.
This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, USC and Stanford.
Saturday
Oklahoma State +3 at Texas Tech—This game is sandwiched in between two huge games for Texas Tech: last week’s amazing victory over Texas and Oklahoma (in two weeks). But despite the celebrating, we don’t expect a letdown. History tells us the Red Raiders have shown an ability to recover quickly the week after the Texas game, as long as that opponent isn’t the Sooners. Besides, Oklahoma State’s secondary is going to have a lot more trouble than it did against Missouri and Texas.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet). Leach will have them ready.
Alabama -3½ at LSU—Can’t see Alabama blowing it now. The Tide is exactly where they want to be and only have to win this to remain No.1. LSU has slipped, especially on defense, yielding 50+ to both Georgia and Florida, and doesn’t seem to have the heart to put an upset together here.
The pick: Alabama.
Penn State -7½ at Iowa—Will Joe Paterno get screwed out of another national championship with an undefeated team? Could be, especially if his Lions can’t put away Iowa and Michigan State with gusto. Paterno’s team has had a week off to recover from Ohio State and prepare for the improved Hawkeyes. Expect them to attack through the air.
The Hawkeyes have the Big Ten’s best red zone defense and will face the conference’s best red zone offense in Penn State. A victory would make Iowa’s season. Paterno needs to win big and hope for somebody to lose.
The pick: Penn State. Careful, though. Two of the last three times the Lions have had a bye week, they returned with a loss—against Iowa.
Cal +22 at USC—Cal continues to have quarterback problems even though Nate Longshore had success coming off the bench last week against Oregon. Longshore, though, will be a sitting duck against USC’s defense and Cal has been close to dreadful on the road this year.
USC has won its four home games this year all by at least 28 points, and the Trojans have a terrific record covering in big home games against Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame, winning their last six home meetings vs. that trio by an average of 22 points. And let’s not forget their 32-point blowout of Ohio State this year.
The pick: USC (best bet ). This game opened with Trojans an 18-point fave.
Kansas +1 at Nebraska—The Cornhuskers are embarrassed (again) after getting hammered in Norman last week and will show up big time for Kansas. Especially with payback in mind for last year’s humiliating 76-39 loss. Kansas played a near perfect game last week beating in-state rival Kansas State but its doubtful they can play that well on the road. And it’s been 40 years, 1968, since the Jayhawks won at Lincoln.
The pick: Nebraska.
Georgia Tech +4 at North Carolina—With Nesbitt at QB for Georgia Tech the Yellow Jackets have a shot to win this, but Nesbitt looks doubtful and second string QB Jaybo Shaw was very shaky in relief last week, throwing a pick and fumbling one away. Maybe he’ll be better if he gets the whole week to prepare, but N.C. had an extra week off to get ready for Tech’s triple option.
The pick: North Carolina. The Tar Heels are hot at home.
Notre Dame +3½ at Boston College—Last week’s 4 overtime loss at home to Pitt, after blowing a two touchdown lead, was devastating for Notre Dame’s season. B.C. is still 5-3 and can get to a decent bowl game with a win over the Irish. Not that the Eagles can be trusted (after allowing Clemson to take a 17-0 lead on their home field, only to recapture the lead, 21-17 and then blow it). The Irish can’t seem to beat a team with a winning record (1-10 the last two years).
The pick: Boston College. We don’t really trust either team but BC's won the last five meetings.
Cincinnati +6½ at West Virginia—West Virginia’s got its Mojo back, having won five in a row, and is playing with a ton of confidence. The Bearcats are much tougher at home than on the road where they tackle with much less efficiency. The Mountaineers have also beaten Cincinnati each of the last three years, all of them convincingly. At least the Bearcats’ QB situation looks ok with Tony Pike throwing again and Dustin Grutza a healthy back-up.
The pick: West Virginia. Rain in the forecast should works to West Virginia’s advantage.
Stanford +14 at Oregon—This isn’t your father’s Stanford or your mother’s Oregon. Under Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal have become a tough, rugged bunch who run the ball with the best of them. These teams are tied at 4-2 in the Pac-10 with a big bowl game hanging in the balance to the team that finishes second. With Oregon coming off of an emotionally difficult loss at Cal, the Ducks might just take Stanford for granted.
The pick: Stanford (best bet), in a surprising upset.
Wednesday
N. Illinois + 9½ at Ball State—Northern Illinois has won five of its last six, while not giving any of those opponents more than 13 points. Its three defeats were 31-27 at Minnesota, 29-26 at W. Michigan and 13-9 at Tennessee. All three were tough losses vs. very respectable con-conference competition. Now the Huskies visit undefeated Ball State, which is dedicating its season to injured WR Dante Love. Impressive as the Cardinals have been, they haven’t faced anyone with a defense all season. With this being a huge MAC match up, we expect this to be a close one.
The pick: Northern Illinois.
Thursday
TCU -2 at Utah—As impressive as TCU has looked blowing out BYU, Wyoming and UNLV the last three weeks, and as unimpressive as Utah looked edging out New Mexico last week, we’re going with the Utes. Home field often means everything in these classic Mountain West games and we suspect that Utah was holding back against the Lobos. Can’t fault those liking TCU in this spot, though. The Horned Frogs have been one of the best defensive teams in the country, but Utah may have their number winning the last two meetings.
The pick: Utah.
Maryland +3 at Virginia Tech—Without even knowing who the QB will be for Virginia Tech, we’re going to take the Hokies in this spot. First of all beamer doesn’t lose often at home in November. Exactly once (to Miami) in the last five years. Second of all, Maryland has not exactly lit things up on the road this year. They lost at Middle Tennessee, nearly lost at Clemson to a team that was disintegrating and then got blown out, 31-0, at Virginia. Enough said.
The pick: Virginia Tech.
Season 72-65; Last week: 4-8
Best Bets, season: 16-14; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
About last week. We don’t usually review like this, but last week was a bit unusual. While we nailed the big games (Texas Tech and Florida), we saw Virginia and Notre Dame blow comfortable leads at home, Tulsa march up and down the field and do everything but beat Arkansas, and Oregon lose a tough one at Cal. Happens to the best of them. Now let’s move on….
Decimating your opponent doesn’t guarantee you’ll move up in the polls. Just look at Oklahoma and USC. After burying Nebraska 62-28 last week, the Sooners dropped two spots from fourth to sixth in the BCS standings and USC also dropped two spots after a 56-0 victory….The last three times Ohio State had a bye it returned with a road loss, including one at Northwestern, which is this week’s opponent.
Look for a Kansas State collapse at Mizzu after coach was pulled away from the team….Maybe the opposite effect at Tennessee where Fulmer is loved and the opponent, Wyoming, looks helpless….Expecting a letdown by Wisky at Indiana after last second loss last week…Minny might be ripe for an upset by Michigan after their season fell apart with last second loss to NW last week.
Condolences to those who had TCU Thursday night. The Frogs are big, fast and mean and beat Utah like a drum for 59 minutes but couldn't hold on for the final drive. Two short missed field goals in the fourth quarter helped the Utes along with a good third-down defense and a great home crowd.
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