Can't conceive that anyone is hotter than Rich after he went 17-4 the last two weeks, culminating with 8-1 record last week, Championship Week.
Included in last week's 8-1 performance were his three best bets: Rutgers, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, all winners. This brings his Best Bet record for the season up to 26-19, while his mark for the entire season for all of his picks now stands at 108-86-2.
Keep Those Comments Coming
After five straight successful seasons picking games against the line for ESPN and AOL we started our on blog this year and hope you've followed it. Please let us know via the comments at the bottom of the blog what was helpful and what else you'd like to see in our weekly selections and editorials--other than more winners. Really do need your feedback, so please send your comments.
In the meantime, feel free to scroll down and checkout our selections from the last two weeks, or all season for that matter, and check out the reasoning behind our picks. Have a good week or two off getting reacquainted with your families.
--30--
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
End of the Line for Alabama
We went 9-3 last week and only Nebraska’s sleepy start prevented us from going 3-0 on our best bets (Boise and Texas were the others). Last week’s record nudges us up to 100-85-2 for the year, which is the sixth straight we’ve been over the Mendoza Line.
Conference championships highlight this week’s games, which have been a specialty of ours the last few years. For the most part, we’re going with the big favorites, Florida, Tulsa and Oklahoma, but feel that Buffalo has a chance to surprise Ball State, which is disappointed about failure to make a bowl match-up with undefeated Boise State.
Last week: 9-3; Season: 100-85-2
Best bets: 2-1; Best bets season: 23-19
Thursday
Louisville +10 1/2 at Rutgers—Rutgers is one of the hottest teams in the country and Louisville might be one of the coldest. The Scarlet Knights are playing for a possible Sun Bowl berth while the Cards are finishing out a dismal season. Losing at Syracuse had to be the worst. Can’t see L’V stopping the Rutgers offensive attack, especially the way they’re throwing the ball.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
Friday
MAC Championship (at Detroit)
Buffalo +15 vs. Ball State—Buffalo has done a good job hanging with everyone on their schedule this year, pulling many out in the final minutes. Turner Gill has done a great job and just might have convinced the Bulls they can compete against mighty Ball State. We all know about Ball State’s potent attack and 12-0 record, but who can remember that Buffalo played a tougher schedule. Yes, the Bulls made things difficult for Missouri at Mizzu, trailing just 20-14 at the half and trailed at Pitt by just 17-16 in the fourth quarter.
We’ll take our chances with Buffalo and a bundle.
The pick: Buffalo.
Saturday
SEC Championship (at Atlanta)
Alabama + 10 vs. Florida—The so-called experts are saying that Alabama’s smash-mouth brand of football is perfect to stop Florida with. Well, nobody’s stopped Florida all year, except Florida. Other than their 31-30 loss to a very good Mississippi team, the Gators have destroyed everyone. Winning by 30 has become commonplace to them. If there ever was a time or a situation that would slow them down you’d think it might’ve been last week in the pouring rain at Florida State. Didn’t happen. Besides, how’s Alabama going to catch up once they’re down two touchdowns?
The pick: Florida. Don't be surprised if Florida's special teams are the difference.
ACC Championship (at Tampa)
Boston College -1 vs. Virginia Tech—This is an awfully tough spot to put freshman QB Dominique Davis for Boston College. Davis has been very good replacing veteran Chris Crane the last few games, not throwing any interceptions and managing the game well, but this is for all the marbles and this is the Virginia Tech defense he’s facing. Giving Tech a big edge with two-headed QB. Both have experience in big games and either can get the job done. BC’s been winning with smoke and mirrors and good D, but the party ends here.
The pick: Virginia Tech (best bet).
Big 12 Championship (at Kansas City)
Missouri +16 1/2 vs. Oklahoma—Only the weather might be able to slow down Oklahoma, which has scored 60 plus in four straight games. And Mizzu certainly doesn’t have the defense to do it. The Sooners had Missouri’s number last year when the Tigers were much better. Can’t see much of a competition here.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet).
Conference USA Championship
East Carolina +12 at Tulsa—Unlike the other conference title games, this one is not played on a neutral field, and Tulsa has wiped out everyone at Tulsa this year. In their five home games this year Tulsa has won each by spreads ranging from 28 to 49 points.
East Carolina held the ball nearly 39 minutes last week while crushing UTEP 53-21, running the ball 53 times. With Patrick Pinkney throwing and running effectively, the Pirates could be tough and will obviously try to play keep away from Tulsa, too. In the end, though, Tulsa just has too much firepower at home.
The pick: Tulsa.
Army +10 1/2 vs. Navy (at Philadelphia)—This is a much better Army team then in past years, but we’re still not sold. Navy still looks to be better moving the ball on the ground or the air. By comparison, Navy easily won at Air Force against a team that handled Army on the Hudson. The Middies also beat a couple of good teams in Wake Forest and Rutgers and just last week easily handled Northern Illinois on the road, which is one of the better MAC teams.
The pick: Navy.
USC -33 at UCLA—USC has little to play for. The Trojans are disappointed they’re going back to the Rose Bowl and figure they just have to show up to beat the Bruins. UCLA has everything to play for. A near victory would be a win for UCLA in this situation, and getting almost five touchdowns is too much to pass up in this rivalry. This team has more heart than Notre Dame.
The pick: UCLA.
Arkansas State +11 at Troy—Arkansas State began the year by upsetting Texas A&M, but that win doesn’t look nearly as good in December. The Indians didn’t live up to their potential by losing at home to Southern Miss and at Memphis, At Alabama they played hard but failed, 35-0. Troy, on the other hand, was a quarter away from knocking off LSU and only a lost by faltering late. In their other big-time game Troy was very competitive, losing 28-10 at Ohio State. This looks like an easy Troy victory.
The pick: Troy.
Second Thoughts
Well the BCS did it. They ruined everyone’s football season by sending Texas to the showers while rewarding Oklahoma for getting hot late. This is even worse than ’04 when Auburn was snubbed with a perfect record. Even a plus one would be a lot better than what we have, but the Obama eight-team plan is the one we need.
Looking ahead to the Rose Bowl, with a disinterested Southern Cal team taking on a good underdog in Penn State. Last weekend the L.A. Times called Penn State, “just another Big Ten vase.” I’m sure that will go over well.
--30--
Conference championships highlight this week’s games, which have been a specialty of ours the last few years. For the most part, we’re going with the big favorites, Florida, Tulsa and Oklahoma, but feel that Buffalo has a chance to surprise Ball State, which is disappointed about failure to make a bowl match-up with undefeated Boise State.
Last week: 9-3; Season: 100-85-2
Best bets: 2-1; Best bets season: 23-19
Thursday
Louisville +10 1/2 at Rutgers—Rutgers is one of the hottest teams in the country and Louisville might be one of the coldest. The Scarlet Knights are playing for a possible Sun Bowl berth while the Cards are finishing out a dismal season. Losing at Syracuse had to be the worst. Can’t see L’V stopping the Rutgers offensive attack, especially the way they’re throwing the ball.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
Friday
MAC Championship (at Detroit)
Buffalo +15 vs. Ball State—Buffalo has done a good job hanging with everyone on their schedule this year, pulling many out in the final minutes. Turner Gill has done a great job and just might have convinced the Bulls they can compete against mighty Ball State. We all know about Ball State’s potent attack and 12-0 record, but who can remember that Buffalo played a tougher schedule. Yes, the Bulls made things difficult for Missouri at Mizzu, trailing just 20-14 at the half and trailed at Pitt by just 17-16 in the fourth quarter.
We’ll take our chances with Buffalo and a bundle.
The pick: Buffalo.
Saturday
SEC Championship (at Atlanta)
Alabama + 10 vs. Florida—The so-called experts are saying that Alabama’s smash-mouth brand of football is perfect to stop Florida with. Well, nobody’s stopped Florida all year, except Florida. Other than their 31-30 loss to a very good Mississippi team, the Gators have destroyed everyone. Winning by 30 has become commonplace to them. If there ever was a time or a situation that would slow them down you’d think it might’ve been last week in the pouring rain at Florida State. Didn’t happen. Besides, how’s Alabama going to catch up once they’re down two touchdowns?
The pick: Florida. Don't be surprised if Florida's special teams are the difference.
ACC Championship (at Tampa)
Boston College -1 vs. Virginia Tech—This is an awfully tough spot to put freshman QB Dominique Davis for Boston College. Davis has been very good replacing veteran Chris Crane the last few games, not throwing any interceptions and managing the game well, but this is for all the marbles and this is the Virginia Tech defense he’s facing. Giving Tech a big edge with two-headed QB. Both have experience in big games and either can get the job done. BC’s been winning with smoke and mirrors and good D, but the party ends here.
The pick: Virginia Tech (best bet).
Big 12 Championship (at Kansas City)
Missouri +16 1/2 vs. Oklahoma—Only the weather might be able to slow down Oklahoma, which has scored 60 plus in four straight games. And Mizzu certainly doesn’t have the defense to do it. The Sooners had Missouri’s number last year when the Tigers were much better. Can’t see much of a competition here.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet).
Conference USA Championship
East Carolina +12 at Tulsa—Unlike the other conference title games, this one is not played on a neutral field, and Tulsa has wiped out everyone at Tulsa this year. In their five home games this year Tulsa has won each by spreads ranging from 28 to 49 points.
East Carolina held the ball nearly 39 minutes last week while crushing UTEP 53-21, running the ball 53 times. With Patrick Pinkney throwing and running effectively, the Pirates could be tough and will obviously try to play keep away from Tulsa, too. In the end, though, Tulsa just has too much firepower at home.
The pick: Tulsa.
Army +10 1/2 vs. Navy (at Philadelphia)—This is a much better Army team then in past years, but we’re still not sold. Navy still looks to be better moving the ball on the ground or the air. By comparison, Navy easily won at Air Force against a team that handled Army on the Hudson. The Middies also beat a couple of good teams in Wake Forest and Rutgers and just last week easily handled Northern Illinois on the road, which is one of the better MAC teams.
The pick: Navy.
USC -33 at UCLA—USC has little to play for. The Trojans are disappointed they’re going back to the Rose Bowl and figure they just have to show up to beat the Bruins. UCLA has everything to play for. A near victory would be a win for UCLA in this situation, and getting almost five touchdowns is too much to pass up in this rivalry. This team has more heart than Notre Dame.
The pick: UCLA.
Arkansas State +11 at Troy—Arkansas State began the year by upsetting Texas A&M, but that win doesn’t look nearly as good in December. The Indians didn’t live up to their potential by losing at home to Southern Miss and at Memphis, At Alabama they played hard but failed, 35-0. Troy, on the other hand, was a quarter away from knocking off LSU and only a lost by faltering late. In their other big-time game Troy was very competitive, losing 28-10 at Ohio State. This looks like an easy Troy victory.
The pick: Troy.
Second Thoughts
Well the BCS did it. They ruined everyone’s football season by sending Texas to the showers while rewarding Oklahoma for getting hot late. This is even worse than ’04 when Auburn was snubbed with a perfect record. Even a plus one would be a lot better than what we have, but the Obama eight-team plan is the one we need.
Looking ahead to the Rose Bowl, with a disinterested Southern Cal team taking on a good underdog in Penn State. Last weekend the L.A. Times called Penn State, “just another Big Ten vase.” I’m sure that will go over well.
--30--
Monday, November 24, 2008
What a Revoltin' Development This Is
“What a mess the BCS is.” That statement could have been made almost anytime in the last 10 years and probably in the next 10, but it’s never seemed truer than now. Because the college presidents have gotten into bed with the bowls and refuse to sanction a playoff, rolling up the score to embarrassing proportions has been encouraged. Encouraged, hell it’s been demanded, if you want to move up in the polls. Except we don’t call it bad sportsmanship anymore, we call it style points. I call it bullcrap.
Where is the level playing field with the BCS standings when Alabama and Florida, who are No.1 and No.2 in the AP poll (not used by the BCS) have to face off in the SEC championship and thereby eliminate one or the other’s chances? How fare is that when Ohio State or Penn State or USC don’t have to face a conference finale?
And how fare is it when some coaches in contention have a vote in the Coaches’ poll (Texas’ Mack Brown) and some coaches don’t, like Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. What’s to prevent Brown from voting Texas No.1 and Oklahoma No.25? With secret balloting that exists, who would know the difference?
Obama Can Move Mountains but Not the BCS
And these are the conditions in which the BCS exists and the BCS standings are determined. This is how we wind up with the two teams to play for the BCS title. I’d like to call it a national championship, but how can I. National championships are determined on the field, not by secret ballots or smooth-talking lobbyists.
President-elect Obama is on the verge of accomplishing some miraculous things, like getting millions of people back to work and turning around our economy. But when he pounds the table demanding an 8-team playoff, all he gets is a polite brush-off from the BCS. Maybe its time for the 99% of us who have begged for a playoff all our lives to storm the Bastille.
Thursday
Texas A&M +35 at Texas—This is the Longhorns last chance to remind the voters how good they are. They’ve got to crush A&M and hope Oklahoma State can upset the Sooners. The Aggies have surprised Texas the last two years but there was very little on the line then. No surprises here. Mack Brown says he doesn’t believe on intentionally rolling up the score. We’ll see if he means it.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Friday
West Virginia -3½ at Pittsburgh—Still a lot at stake for these two even though it looks like Cincy has the Big East BCS spot locked up. West Virginia was a 40-point fave last year when the Panthers knocked them out of the BCS title game. Since then Pitt has improved and the Mountaineers have gotten worse, which makes our choice an easy one.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Colorado +18 at Nebraska—Since beating West Virginia at home early in the season, the Buffs have gone down hill fast. And all of a sudden Nebraska has become monster in the Big 12 North with Joe Ganz having a great season both running and passing. Ever since the Huskers found themselves in an overtime loss at Texas Tech, they’ve easily defeated Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas, while getting crushed at Oklahoma. Last Saturday we found out that even the best get crushed at Oklahoma.
The pick: Nebraska (best bet).
Fresno State +21 at Boise State—Even though it looks like Boise State will lose the BCS automatic berth to Utah, the Broncos are still working on a perfect season and a very good bowl game. They were extremely impressive putting away Nevada last week and should have no problem with Fresno, which played like zombies for most of the game at San Jose.
The pick: Boise State (best bet).
Saturday
Oklahoma -7 1/2 at Oklahoma State—It’s all on the line for the Sooners. A win and they’re in, because the voters are certain to propel them ahead of Texas in the BCS standings. Getting that win won’t be easy, however. In their past three trips to Stillwater, it didn’t matter how badly the Sooners crushed their opponent the week before, they always have had trouble with the Cowboys. Three trips ago they lost, sending Les Miles to a big payday. On their last two trips they barely squeaked out victories, winning by 6 and 3 points. Have the Sooners come down from the clouds yet?
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Florida -16 at Florida State—Florida not only needs to win this game but it needs to win it big, and we think they will. This used to be a big rivalry game, but Florida has won the last four in a row. However there is hope for FSU because the last two times these teams played in Tallahassee the Gators only won by 7. But Florida has won its four conference road games this year by 24, 28, 31 and 39 points at Tennessee, Vandy, Arkansas and Georgia, and has won its other six games by spreads ranging from 23 to 58. And we all know how Urban Meyer loves to step on your throat when you’re begging for mercy.
The pick: Florida.
Auburn +14 1/2 at Alabama—It’s simple for Alabama, beat Auburn then beat Florida and they’re in the BCS championship. No style points necessary, just win. By one point if need be. Auburn, on the other hand, is looking to save its season. But Auburn has been putrid on the road, losing at Vanderbilt, Mississippii and West Virginia and barely beating Miss. State, 3-2. They might have a nice run going against the Tide, but it all ends here. This isn’t your father’s Alabama or your mother’s Auburn we’re talking ‘bout.
The pick: Alabama.
Georgia Tech +8 at Georgia—Georgia’s going to have the same problem defending Tech’s triple option that Miami had last week, and even though Georgia had extra time to prepare, seeing it in person for the first time is hard to deal with. The Bulldogs have had a disappointing season and have no chance to gain a BCS bowl bid. Besides, the last two games between these two played in Athens have been decided by three and six points.
The pick: Georgia Tech.
Miami -2 at N.C. State—The Wolfpack have found themselves a great quarterback in Russell Wilson who has developed into a showstopper for coach Tom O’Brien. Wilson has thrown for 14 TDs against just one interception this year and was flawless leading the ‘Pack to three straight victories. The last, at North Carolina, was a gem and knocked the Tar Heels out of ACC contention. A victory here makes the Wolfpack bowl eligible, too.
Miami has been up and down, winning five straight before losing at Georgia Tech last week. A victory gives Miami an 8-4 record, but we’re going with Wilson again.
The pick: N.C. State.
Maryland +6½ at Boston College—This is a winner-take-all match for the right to represent to ACC Atlantic division for the conference title next week in Tampa. The Eagles got in this position by winning two tough road games at Florida State and at Wake Forest the last two weeks. And they might have to win this with back-up QB Dominique Davis who replaced injured Chris Crane. Maryland’s lost three out of four road games this year, all by 10 or more, and got blown out on their last visit to Chestnut Hill. Going with the team with momentum.
The pick: Boston College.
Oregon +3 at Oregon State—There’s a lot on the line for Oregon State. A victory will send the Beavers to Rose Bowl for a return match with Penn State. And while Oregon has been rested with a bye week, State has been through the ringer winning tough games at Arizona last week and against Cal the week before. Can they squeeze the juice for one more? We think so because the Beavers have controlled this series recently, winning three of the last four and the Ducks have gone home winless their last three trips to Corvalis.
The pick: Oregon State. Careful, State's Qizz Rodgers looks like a late scratch (shoulder).
Notre Dame +31 1/2 at USC—Normally we’d say you can name your score here, but here’s what you need to watch out for. The Oregon State game starts an hour earlier than USC’s. If Oregon State is winning handily, the Trojans might be disappointed they can’t go to the Rose Bowl. Might be. We’ll still look for the kill here.
The pick: USC.
Last week: 6-6-1; Season: 91-82-2
Best bets last week: 2-1; season:21-18
Second Thoughts
Posting early this week because many folks are traveling including us. Will do our best to keep the point-spreads current….Texas Tech needs to wake up fast because if they beat Baylor and Oklahoma loses in Stillwater, the Red Raiders go to the Big 12 title game, and Baylor looks easy to pass against…Virginia Tech only needs to beat Virginia to go to the ACC title game…Tulsa looks almost too good giving 14 at Marshall, which has been pathetic lately….Mississippi looks like a layup against Miss. State, which is banged up and about to make wholesale changes. ...Remember the idea is to eat the turkey, not to be one. Happy Thanksgiving!
--30--
Where is the level playing field with the BCS standings when Alabama and Florida, who are No.1 and No.2 in the AP poll (not used by the BCS) have to face off in the SEC championship and thereby eliminate one or the other’s chances? How fare is that when Ohio State or Penn State or USC don’t have to face a conference finale?
And how fare is it when some coaches in contention have a vote in the Coaches’ poll (Texas’ Mack Brown) and some coaches don’t, like Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. What’s to prevent Brown from voting Texas No.1 and Oklahoma No.25? With secret balloting that exists, who would know the difference?
Obama Can Move Mountains but Not the BCS
And these are the conditions in which the BCS exists and the BCS standings are determined. This is how we wind up with the two teams to play for the BCS title. I’d like to call it a national championship, but how can I. National championships are determined on the field, not by secret ballots or smooth-talking lobbyists.
President-elect Obama is on the verge of accomplishing some miraculous things, like getting millions of people back to work and turning around our economy. But when he pounds the table demanding an 8-team playoff, all he gets is a polite brush-off from the BCS. Maybe its time for the 99% of us who have begged for a playoff all our lives to storm the Bastille.
Thursday
Texas A&M +35 at Texas—This is the Longhorns last chance to remind the voters how good they are. They’ve got to crush A&M and hope Oklahoma State can upset the Sooners. The Aggies have surprised Texas the last two years but there was very little on the line then. No surprises here. Mack Brown says he doesn’t believe on intentionally rolling up the score. We’ll see if he means it.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Friday
West Virginia -3½ at Pittsburgh—Still a lot at stake for these two even though it looks like Cincy has the Big East BCS spot locked up. West Virginia was a 40-point fave last year when the Panthers knocked them out of the BCS title game. Since then Pitt has improved and the Mountaineers have gotten worse, which makes our choice an easy one.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Colorado +18 at Nebraska—Since beating West Virginia at home early in the season, the Buffs have gone down hill fast. And all of a sudden Nebraska has become monster in the Big 12 North with Joe Ganz having a great season both running and passing. Ever since the Huskers found themselves in an overtime loss at Texas Tech, they’ve easily defeated Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas, while getting crushed at Oklahoma. Last Saturday we found out that even the best get crushed at Oklahoma.
The pick: Nebraska (best bet).
Fresno State +21 at Boise State—Even though it looks like Boise State will lose the BCS automatic berth to Utah, the Broncos are still working on a perfect season and a very good bowl game. They were extremely impressive putting away Nevada last week and should have no problem with Fresno, which played like zombies for most of the game at San Jose.
The pick: Boise State (best bet).
Saturday
Oklahoma -7 1/2 at Oklahoma State—It’s all on the line for the Sooners. A win and they’re in, because the voters are certain to propel them ahead of Texas in the BCS standings. Getting that win won’t be easy, however. In their past three trips to Stillwater, it didn’t matter how badly the Sooners crushed their opponent the week before, they always have had trouble with the Cowboys. Three trips ago they lost, sending Les Miles to a big payday. On their last two trips they barely squeaked out victories, winning by 6 and 3 points. Have the Sooners come down from the clouds yet?
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Florida -16 at Florida State—Florida not only needs to win this game but it needs to win it big, and we think they will. This used to be a big rivalry game, but Florida has won the last four in a row. However there is hope for FSU because the last two times these teams played in Tallahassee the Gators only won by 7. But Florida has won its four conference road games this year by 24, 28, 31 and 39 points at Tennessee, Vandy, Arkansas and Georgia, and has won its other six games by spreads ranging from 23 to 58. And we all know how Urban Meyer loves to step on your throat when you’re begging for mercy.
The pick: Florida.
Auburn +14 1/2 at Alabama—It’s simple for Alabama, beat Auburn then beat Florida and they’re in the BCS championship. No style points necessary, just win. By one point if need be. Auburn, on the other hand, is looking to save its season. But Auburn has been putrid on the road, losing at Vanderbilt, Mississippii and West Virginia and barely beating Miss. State, 3-2. They might have a nice run going against the Tide, but it all ends here. This isn’t your father’s Alabama or your mother’s Auburn we’re talking ‘bout.
The pick: Alabama.
Georgia Tech +8 at Georgia—Georgia’s going to have the same problem defending Tech’s triple option that Miami had last week, and even though Georgia had extra time to prepare, seeing it in person for the first time is hard to deal with. The Bulldogs have had a disappointing season and have no chance to gain a BCS bowl bid. Besides, the last two games between these two played in Athens have been decided by three and six points.
The pick: Georgia Tech.
Miami -2 at N.C. State—The Wolfpack have found themselves a great quarterback in Russell Wilson who has developed into a showstopper for coach Tom O’Brien. Wilson has thrown for 14 TDs against just one interception this year and was flawless leading the ‘Pack to three straight victories. The last, at North Carolina, was a gem and knocked the Tar Heels out of ACC contention. A victory here makes the Wolfpack bowl eligible, too.
Miami has been up and down, winning five straight before losing at Georgia Tech last week. A victory gives Miami an 8-4 record, but we’re going with Wilson again.
The pick: N.C. State.
Maryland +6½ at Boston College—This is a winner-take-all match for the right to represent to ACC Atlantic division for the conference title next week in Tampa. The Eagles got in this position by winning two tough road games at Florida State and at Wake Forest the last two weeks. And they might have to win this with back-up QB Dominique Davis who replaced injured Chris Crane. Maryland’s lost three out of four road games this year, all by 10 or more, and got blown out on their last visit to Chestnut Hill. Going with the team with momentum.
The pick: Boston College.
Oregon +3 at Oregon State—There’s a lot on the line for Oregon State. A victory will send the Beavers to Rose Bowl for a return match with Penn State. And while Oregon has been rested with a bye week, State has been through the ringer winning tough games at Arizona last week and against Cal the week before. Can they squeeze the juice for one more? We think so because the Beavers have controlled this series recently, winning three of the last four and the Ducks have gone home winless their last three trips to Corvalis.
The pick: Oregon State. Careful, State's Qizz Rodgers looks like a late scratch (shoulder).
Notre Dame +31 1/2 at USC—Normally we’d say you can name your score here, but here’s what you need to watch out for. The Oregon State game starts an hour earlier than USC’s. If Oregon State is winning handily, the Trojans might be disappointed they can’t go to the Rose Bowl. Might be. We’ll still look for the kill here.
The pick: USC.
Last week: 6-6-1; Season: 91-82-2
Best bets last week: 2-1; season:21-18
Second Thoughts
Posting early this week because many folks are traveling including us. Will do our best to keep the point-spreads current….Texas Tech needs to wake up fast because if they beat Baylor and Oklahoma loses in Stillwater, the Red Raiders go to the Big 12 title game, and Baylor looks easy to pass against…Virginia Tech only needs to beat Virginia to go to the ACC title game…Tulsa looks almost too good giving 14 at Marshall, which has been pathetic lately….Mississippi looks like a layup against Miss. State, which is banged up and about to make wholesale changes. ...Remember the idea is to eat the turkey, not to be one. Happy Thanksgiving!
--30--
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Texas Tech to Upset Oklahoma
This is rivalry week but all the classic get-togethers have been upstaged by Texas Tech and Oklahoma. If Tech wins they have an easy path for a spot at the BCS championship table. If Oklahoma wins it keeps them alive for a spot and assures them a BCS game no matter what they do the next week against Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma is 60-2 at home under Bob Stoops which makes the task even harder. The Red Raiders, though, are about the only team with the talent and the temperament to pull it off. And we think they will.
This week’s best bets: Miami, TCU and Rutgers.
Saturday
Texas Tech +7 at Oklahoma—It’s hard to find a tougher game to pick. We’ve been riding Texas Tech all season, a team with an offense everyone loves to watch. And now Tech has a defense to go with its offense.
Oklahoma’s riding a 25-game winning streak at home and would be tough to beat under any circumstances. But if anybody can beat them in Norman it’s the Red Raiders who had a touchdown lead at halftime in their last meeting in Norman and who has won the last two clashes in Lubbock. Most of the Tech offense played in Norman two years ago and won’t be in awe of the Sooners. With Reynolds out of the middle, Oklahoma remains somewhat vulnerable. If the line can keep Harrell clean, he’ll play pitch and catch all day.
Also, these two coaches know each other very well, with Leach being off. coordinator for Stoops before he took the Tech job seven years ago. Regardless, I can’t see a blowout happening here, either way. So with a prospect of a close game, the points are very attractive.
The pick: Texas Tech.
Pittsburgh + 6 at Cincinnati—Pitt may have gotten a bye at the wrong time now that they’re finally playing up to their potential. Cincy again has QB issues with Pike knocked for a loop late last week and Grutza looking rusty off the bench. The Panthers have won this game the last three years, and in fact, have never lost to the Bearcats.
Pitt also has been a terrific road team, winning five straight out of town. The streak started at the end of last season with their improbable 13-9 victory at West Virginia, costing the Mountaineers a chance to play for the BCS title. This year the Panthers have won at Syracuse, South Florida, Navy and Notre Dame. As good as Cincy is at home at night, Pitt won’t be intimidated. With the Big East title at stake, this also looks like a close finish.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Michigan +20½ at Ohio State—Ohio State doesn’t get a chance to blow out Michigan very often and we have a feeling they’re going to relish this opportunity. If Rodriguiz can somehow talk Michigan into a showing up it’ll be the greatest speech since Rockne. The Wolverines are hurting at QB again and are out-manned in nearly every category.
The pick: Ohio State.
BYU +7 at Utah—Ten of the last 11 meetings between this Holy War pair have been decided by 7 points or less, which should be enough to tell you which way to go here. BYU has slumped after losing to TCU, but showed some life beating Air Force last week.
Utah’s been lucky, catching Michigan before anyone knew how bad they were, and topping TCU in a game they would have never won on a neutral field. The Utes aren’t bad, mind you, but they’re certainly not as good as their No.7 ranking.
The pick: BYU.
Michigan State +15½ at Penn State—The Lions had a week to cry in their beer after blowing their title hopes at Iowa, and looked like a shadow of themselves for a half last week, before waking up to smother Indiana. Now they realize that winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl isn’t so bad after all, so expect a full out effort against the Spartans. Michigan State choked at home against Ohio State so how can you expect them to stay in the game at Happy Valley? Besides, Penn State should control both lines.
The pick: Penn State.
Boise State -6½ at Nevada—Is Nevada ready for prime time? Two years ago we thought so after three straight blow-out victories they hosted Boise and got knocked to kingdom come, 31-7. Last year the Wolf Pack lost a 69-67 zillion-overtime heartbreaker at Boise. Now they are coming to host this game off of two impressive victories, 41-28 at Fresno and 41-17 over San Jose State, two teams that are next best in the conference. Of course, Boise’s still working on a perfect season, and praying for BYU to beat Utah so it can return to a BCS bowl. In September the Pack ran for over 200 yards against Texas Tech and only trailed Tech 14-12 in the second half before finally succumbing.
The pick: Nevada. Like the Liza Minelli song, for Nevada it’s “Maybe This Time.”
Air Force +20 at TCU—After watching one-dimensional Air Force try to pass against BYU, you get the feeling they might get shutout by TCU’s great defense. Besides, TCU’s been explosive at home this year, beating Stanford by 17, BYU by 25, San Diego State by 34 and Wyoming by 47. This number seems very makeable.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
N.C. State +11 at North Carolina—There’s no question that the Tar Heels are on the verge of being a power in the ACC, and a win vs. N.C. State could send them to play for the conference title. But N.C. State has also improved by leaps and bounds. Five straight covers for one thing. And they weren’t against patsies, but teams like B.C., Florida State and last week’s victim, Wake. This is a rivalry and the Wolfpack are still undervalued.
The pick: N.C. State.
Army +18½ at Rutgers— Rutgers looks like a layup against Army with the Cadets thinking about Navy upcoming. Can’t see how Army can defend the suddenly potent Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights have won four straight and after a 1-5 start can finish 7-5 and go to a good bowl. But beware of the back door because the Cadets never give up.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
UCF +5½ at Memphis—Memphis is at home where they’ve played well this year and get QB Hall back from injury. Hall threw for 350 yards vs. Louisville before he got hurt. UCF has had problems scoring all season and usually lays an egg on the road. To add some spice, Memphis still has a shot to play for the Conference USA title.
The pick: Memphis.
Wednesday
Ball State -7 at Central Michigan—The Chips have won the last four meetings and are coming on at the right time of the year. Ball State is undefeated and looking for a challenge. The Cardinals hardly broke a sweat in their last two and should be able to move the ball through the air again. This could be one of those games won by the team who has the ball last.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Thursday
Miami +3½ at Georgia Tech—Miami is the only team this year whose defense knocked Florida around. Now the Hurricanes have realized just how good they are or could be. Facing Georgia Tech’s triple option for the first time with only a week to prepare is a tough assignment, but Miami has the fastest defense in the ACC. And if Tech falls behind the triple option isn’t designed to play catch up.
The pick: Miami (best bet), straight up.
Friday
Fresno State -3 at San Jose State—Fresno’s won four of its five road games this year and played the tougher schedule. The Bulldogs also have dominated San Jose in the series. The Spartans’ season appears to have gone downhill after losing to Boise State. Since then they squeaked passed awful Idaho and were badly beaten at home by La. Tech and trounced at Nevada.
The pick: Fresno State, which might be looking ahead to Boise next.
Season: 85-76-1; Last week: 5-7
Best Bets season: 19-17; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
Arizona vs. Oregon State is an intriguing match-up but too tough to call. Hard to believe Mike Stoops was the Oklahoma defensive coordinator before he left for Arizona. Last week the Sun Devils defense leaked 55 points Oregon’s way. Who among you wouldn’t have taken Arizona +6 last week if you knew they were going to score 45?
Stanford’s been in one tough game after another and just when they need a break they face Cal in the big one at Cal. Gotta think Stanford finally collapses here…Maryland is undefeated at home and has a way of winning the close ones. FSU might have thrown it all away last week in a campus brawl, and the hangover from that will probably hand the victory to the Terps….
Believe it or not, money is pouring in on Washington State in the Apple Cup. The line opened with the Huskies favored by 9½ and dropped down to 7½ in two days. Hard to believe that anyone would bet this game, let alone on State….
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Oklahoma is 60-2 at home under Bob Stoops which makes the task even harder. The Red Raiders, though, are about the only team with the talent and the temperament to pull it off. And we think they will.
This week’s best bets: Miami, TCU and Rutgers.
Saturday
Texas Tech +7 at Oklahoma—It’s hard to find a tougher game to pick. We’ve been riding Texas Tech all season, a team with an offense everyone loves to watch. And now Tech has a defense to go with its offense.
Oklahoma’s riding a 25-game winning streak at home and would be tough to beat under any circumstances. But if anybody can beat them in Norman it’s the Red Raiders who had a touchdown lead at halftime in their last meeting in Norman and who has won the last two clashes in Lubbock. Most of the Tech offense played in Norman two years ago and won’t be in awe of the Sooners. With Reynolds out of the middle, Oklahoma remains somewhat vulnerable. If the line can keep Harrell clean, he’ll play pitch and catch all day.
Also, these two coaches know each other very well, with Leach being off. coordinator for Stoops before he took the Tech job seven years ago. Regardless, I can’t see a blowout happening here, either way. So with a prospect of a close game, the points are very attractive.
The pick: Texas Tech.
Pittsburgh + 6 at Cincinnati—Pitt may have gotten a bye at the wrong time now that they’re finally playing up to their potential. Cincy again has QB issues with Pike knocked for a loop late last week and Grutza looking rusty off the bench. The Panthers have won this game the last three years, and in fact, have never lost to the Bearcats.
Pitt also has been a terrific road team, winning five straight out of town. The streak started at the end of last season with their improbable 13-9 victory at West Virginia, costing the Mountaineers a chance to play for the BCS title. This year the Panthers have won at Syracuse, South Florida, Navy and Notre Dame. As good as Cincy is at home at night, Pitt won’t be intimidated. With the Big East title at stake, this also looks like a close finish.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Michigan +20½ at Ohio State—Ohio State doesn’t get a chance to blow out Michigan very often and we have a feeling they’re going to relish this opportunity. If Rodriguiz can somehow talk Michigan into a showing up it’ll be the greatest speech since Rockne. The Wolverines are hurting at QB again and are out-manned in nearly every category.
The pick: Ohio State.
BYU +7 at Utah—Ten of the last 11 meetings between this Holy War pair have been decided by 7 points or less, which should be enough to tell you which way to go here. BYU has slumped after losing to TCU, but showed some life beating Air Force last week.
Utah’s been lucky, catching Michigan before anyone knew how bad they were, and topping TCU in a game they would have never won on a neutral field. The Utes aren’t bad, mind you, but they’re certainly not as good as their No.7 ranking.
The pick: BYU.
Michigan State +15½ at Penn State—The Lions had a week to cry in their beer after blowing their title hopes at Iowa, and looked like a shadow of themselves for a half last week, before waking up to smother Indiana. Now they realize that winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl isn’t so bad after all, so expect a full out effort against the Spartans. Michigan State choked at home against Ohio State so how can you expect them to stay in the game at Happy Valley? Besides, Penn State should control both lines.
The pick: Penn State.
Boise State -6½ at Nevada—Is Nevada ready for prime time? Two years ago we thought so after three straight blow-out victories they hosted Boise and got knocked to kingdom come, 31-7. Last year the Wolf Pack lost a 69-67 zillion-overtime heartbreaker at Boise. Now they are coming to host this game off of two impressive victories, 41-28 at Fresno and 41-17 over San Jose State, two teams that are next best in the conference. Of course, Boise’s still working on a perfect season, and praying for BYU to beat Utah so it can return to a BCS bowl. In September the Pack ran for over 200 yards against Texas Tech and only trailed Tech 14-12 in the second half before finally succumbing.
The pick: Nevada. Like the Liza Minelli song, for Nevada it’s “Maybe This Time.”
Air Force +20 at TCU—After watching one-dimensional Air Force try to pass against BYU, you get the feeling they might get shutout by TCU’s great defense. Besides, TCU’s been explosive at home this year, beating Stanford by 17, BYU by 25, San Diego State by 34 and Wyoming by 47. This number seems very makeable.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
N.C. State +11 at North Carolina—There’s no question that the Tar Heels are on the verge of being a power in the ACC, and a win vs. N.C. State could send them to play for the conference title. But N.C. State has also improved by leaps and bounds. Five straight covers for one thing. And they weren’t against patsies, but teams like B.C., Florida State and last week’s victim, Wake. This is a rivalry and the Wolfpack are still undervalued.
The pick: N.C. State.
Army +18½ at Rutgers— Rutgers looks like a layup against Army with the Cadets thinking about Navy upcoming. Can’t see how Army can defend the suddenly potent Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights have won four straight and after a 1-5 start can finish 7-5 and go to a good bowl. But beware of the back door because the Cadets never give up.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
UCF +5½ at Memphis—Memphis is at home where they’ve played well this year and get QB Hall back from injury. Hall threw for 350 yards vs. Louisville before he got hurt. UCF has had problems scoring all season and usually lays an egg on the road. To add some spice, Memphis still has a shot to play for the Conference USA title.
The pick: Memphis.
Wednesday
Ball State -7 at Central Michigan—The Chips have won the last four meetings and are coming on at the right time of the year. Ball State is undefeated and looking for a challenge. The Cardinals hardly broke a sweat in their last two and should be able to move the ball through the air again. This could be one of those games won by the team who has the ball last.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Thursday
Miami +3½ at Georgia Tech—Miami is the only team this year whose defense knocked Florida around. Now the Hurricanes have realized just how good they are or could be. Facing Georgia Tech’s triple option for the first time with only a week to prepare is a tough assignment, but Miami has the fastest defense in the ACC. And if Tech falls behind the triple option isn’t designed to play catch up.
The pick: Miami (best bet), straight up.
Friday
Fresno State -3 at San Jose State—Fresno’s won four of its five road games this year and played the tougher schedule. The Bulldogs also have dominated San Jose in the series. The Spartans’ season appears to have gone downhill after losing to Boise State. Since then they squeaked passed awful Idaho and were badly beaten at home by La. Tech and trounced at Nevada.
The pick: Fresno State, which might be looking ahead to Boise next.
Season: 85-76-1; Last week: 5-7
Best Bets season: 19-17; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
Arizona vs. Oregon State is an intriguing match-up but too tough to call. Hard to believe Mike Stoops was the Oklahoma defensive coordinator before he left for Arizona. Last week the Sun Devils defense leaked 55 points Oregon’s way. Who among you wouldn’t have taken Arizona +6 last week if you knew they were going to score 45?
Stanford’s been in one tough game after another and just when they need a break they face Cal in the big one at Cal. Gotta think Stanford finally collapses here…Maryland is undefeated at home and has a way of winning the close ones. FSU might have thrown it all away last week in a campus brawl, and the hangover from that will probably hand the victory to the Terps….
Believe it or not, money is pouring in on Washington State in the Apple Cup. The line opened with the Huskies favored by 9½ and dropped down to 7½ in two days. Hard to believe that anyone would bet this game, let alone on State….
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Sunday, November 16, 2008
What's Wrong with Urban Meyer?
Urban Meyer makes the term "killer instinct" look like group therapy. Someone must have taken away his lolly when he was two. Or maybe he didn't get a chance to ride the new bike on his block. Whatever his problem is he should see a shrink, and stop taking it out on everyone else in the Southeast Conference.
What? Wasn't it good enough that his Gators were completely dominating Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks last Saturday, leading 42-6 in the fourth quarter? No, I guess not. It wasn't good enough for Meyer until he had Spurrier and the Gamecocks completely humiliated. By having his Heisman QB, Tim Tebow, still in the game passing, and Percy Harvin still in slashing, he was rubbing dirt in the opposition's face. Not to mention risking injuries to his stars.
Was Meyer looking for style points? Whoever said humiliation was a style to be admired? Was Meyer afraid the BCS wouldn't remember that he his team laid 50 humiliating points on LSU and 49 on Georgia, and just for the fun of it he had his team score 63 against Kentucky, which had the nerve to score five of its own points. Several of those final TDs in the Kentucky game came late with Tebow still out there.
What's he proving? Does he think we hadn't noticed that his team is worthy of playing for the BCS championship? Maybe he figures that the rest of us will assume Florida's better than Texas (which is fighting the Gators for a possible spot in the finals) because Texas only won 35-7. He must think that Texas coach Mack Brown is a sucker for not running it up on Kansas. Some might even call Brown a gentleman, but Brown, too, should be admonished for having his quarterback, Colt McCoy, still playing in the fourth quarter.
You'd think Spurrier was some horrible human being the way Meyer's team stripped Spurrier's of any dignity that remained. 56-6. Wasn't 42-6 enough? The Sunday morning headlines screamed that Florida had handed Spurrier, a great coach, his worst defeat ever. It's exactly what Meyer was looking for. But Spurrier's greatness happened while coaching Florida. Maybe that was what Meyer was after--to leave no doubt about who was Florida's greatest coach.
Now let's talk about the Georgia game for a second. Okay, maybe Georgia did over-do it last year when the whole team ran on the field to celebrate its first score. This year's final score of 49-10 should have been revenge enough. The final score spoke for itself. But no, Meyer had to call two timeouts in the final seconds to rub it in Georgia's face some more and humiliate its coaching staff.
Maybe Meyer's doing all this because he's mad at himself for not having his team prepared when it lost 31-30 to Mississippi. But for some reason he didn't, and they lost. AT HOME! Which is no reason to humiliate every other team on the schedule.
Meyer is the type of guy that when he's got you on the ground and you're begging for mercy, he steps on your throat and smiles. Meyer has said he doesn't like to talk to the opposing coach before a game because he thinks it's phoney. Maybe it's because he's gutless; afraid to share a kind word with someone he intends to destroy and humiliate.
One day Urban Meyer's teams will not be so good. They might even be just a little above average like Spurrier's. When that day comes every coach in the Southeast Conference will return the favor. But they'll probably do it with a lot more class. It would be hard not to.
Unfortunately, we live in a society that has rewarded Meyer and his team for their blowout, humiliating victories by voting them higher in the polls. So when we ask, what's wrong with Urban Meyer, the answer might be: what's wrong with us.
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What? Wasn't it good enough that his Gators were completely dominating Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks last Saturday, leading 42-6 in the fourth quarter? No, I guess not. It wasn't good enough for Meyer until he had Spurrier and the Gamecocks completely humiliated. By having his Heisman QB, Tim Tebow, still in the game passing, and Percy Harvin still in slashing, he was rubbing dirt in the opposition's face. Not to mention risking injuries to his stars.
Was Meyer looking for style points? Whoever said humiliation was a style to be admired? Was Meyer afraid the BCS wouldn't remember that he his team laid 50 humiliating points on LSU and 49 on Georgia, and just for the fun of it he had his team score 63 against Kentucky, which had the nerve to score five of its own points. Several of those final TDs in the Kentucky game came late with Tebow still out there.
What's he proving? Does he think we hadn't noticed that his team is worthy of playing for the BCS championship? Maybe he figures that the rest of us will assume Florida's better than Texas (which is fighting the Gators for a possible spot in the finals) because Texas only won 35-7. He must think that Texas coach Mack Brown is a sucker for not running it up on Kansas. Some might even call Brown a gentleman, but Brown, too, should be admonished for having his quarterback, Colt McCoy, still playing in the fourth quarter.
You'd think Spurrier was some horrible human being the way Meyer's team stripped Spurrier's of any dignity that remained. 56-6. Wasn't 42-6 enough? The Sunday morning headlines screamed that Florida had handed Spurrier, a great coach, his worst defeat ever. It's exactly what Meyer was looking for. But Spurrier's greatness happened while coaching Florida. Maybe that was what Meyer was after--to leave no doubt about who was Florida's greatest coach.
Now let's talk about the Georgia game for a second. Okay, maybe Georgia did over-do it last year when the whole team ran on the field to celebrate its first score. This year's final score of 49-10 should have been revenge enough. The final score spoke for itself. But no, Meyer had to call two timeouts in the final seconds to rub it in Georgia's face some more and humiliate its coaching staff.
Maybe Meyer's doing all this because he's mad at himself for not having his team prepared when it lost 31-30 to Mississippi. But for some reason he didn't, and they lost. AT HOME! Which is no reason to humiliate every other team on the schedule.
Meyer is the type of guy that when he's got you on the ground and you're begging for mercy, he steps on your throat and smiles. Meyer has said he doesn't like to talk to the opposing coach before a game because he thinks it's phoney. Maybe it's because he's gutless; afraid to share a kind word with someone he intends to destroy and humiliate.
One day Urban Meyer's teams will not be so good. They might even be just a little above average like Spurrier's. When that day comes every coach in the Southeast Conference will return the favor. But they'll probably do it with a lot more class. It would be hard not to.
Unfortunately, we live in a society that has rewarded Meyer and his team for their blowout, humiliating victories by voting them higher in the polls. So when we ask, what's wrong with Urban Meyer, the answer might be: what's wrong with us.
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Danger Ahead for Texas, Mizzu & BYU
The traps are set and waiting for Texas, Missouri and BYU. The question is: can they avoid them? All three have major dates just ahead. All three are on road and may be looking past this week’s pesky opponents.
Texas visits Kansas, which has won 15 of its last 16 home games. Missouri, which looks like a lock to play for the Big 12 title, is nearly a four-touchdown favorite at Iowa State Saturday. The Cyclones nearly knocked off Kansas at home last month and last year upset Kansas State and Colorado and scared the pants off Oklahoma. BYU has to be thinking about Utah next week—even though their coach refuses to mention the game—while a very good Air Force team awaits.
Two other big favorites may also be taking this week’s opponents for granted. Ohio State, which is thinking about Michigan, has to visit Illinois which laid down for Western Michigan last week, but upset the Buckeyes last year; and Oklahoma State, which has its “Bedlam” game with the Sooners in two weeks, visits Colorado.
Last week: 8-4; Season: 80-69-1
Best bets last week: 2-1; Season: 18-15
This week’s best bets: Michigan, Oregon State and Tulsa.
Saturday
Mississippi State +22 at Alabama—Mississippi State has beaten Alabama the last two years, a fact that cost the last Alabama coach his job. And once again the Bulldogs will bring their best game to Tuscaloosa. It doesn’t matter that Alabama’s No.1 and that Miss. State is mediocre, Croom knows how to get his team ready for the Tide. And with the LSU scare barely behind them and the thought of playing Florida for the SEC championship, it might be hard for Alabama to focus this week.
The pick: Mississippi State, with some reluctance.
Texas -14 at Kansas—Texas better not look past Kansas because if they do they might be looking past a chance to be in the BCS finale. Kansas is a tough ticket at home losing just once in their last 16 home games, (vs. Texas Tech last month). Their previous loss was three seasons back in a low-scoring game vs. Oklahoma.
The Longhorns are good but they still give up points, yielding a 30 point average their last five games, and Kansas can score with the best of them. On the other hand, Nebraska had no trouble throwing against the KU secondary last week which bodes well for Colt McCoy. Sounds like a shootout.
The pick: Kansas.
USC-24 at Stanford—Okay, so you think USC has revenge on its mind for the way Stanford messed up the Trojans’ season last year. Maybe they do but if they can’t move the ball better than their performance against Cal, they’ll have a hard time pulling away. Normally the Cardinal would be down after letting Oregon score late and beat them last week, but not with USC coming to Palo Alto, and not when they need one more win to go bowling.
The pick: Stanford. This is Stanford's last home game.
Notre Dame -4 at Navy—The Irish looked like they were heading to a big bowl game before blowing a 2 TD lead to Pitt two weeks ago and getting shut out at B.C. last week. Now they’re wondering how to score again. Last year Navy finally cracked ND’s 43-year hex and won one. With their triple option as hard to defend as ever, this could be two in a row. The Midshipmen have won five of their last six including wins at Wake Forest and Air Force. Going with the hot team.
The pick: Navy.
Rutgers +8 at South Florida--Rutgers finally has put it together, winning three straight, and Teel looks terrific throwing the ball. Defending the pass is South Florida's biggest problem. After losing three of the last four USF called a team meeting. Not sure it will change things.
The pick: Rutgers.
BYU -4 at Air Force—BYU has blown out Air Force by anywhere from 17 to 25 points in their last four meetings. Why not again this year? Well, maybe they will, but this Air Force team seems much tougher. They’ve only lost in the last minute to Utah and the following week to Navy, which could have been a hangover game, too. Ever since BYU lost to TCU they’ve been sluggish and maybe they’re just biding their time until the Utah game next week. Regardless, this looks like a tough match up for the Cougars.
The pick: Air Force.
Cal +3 1/2 at Oregon State—Oregon State’s got a tough schedule with Cal and Oregon ahead but at least they control their own destiny. Cal is coming off two bruising games against Oregon and USC and we don’t think they can match the same intensity here.
The pick: Oregon State (best bet).
Northwestern +3 1/2 at Michigan—Northwestern seems all beat up and Michigan is finally coming on. Maybe they’re looking ahead to the Ohio State game and maybe they’re just going to be way too much for the Wildcats to handle on the road. We think it’s the latter.
The pick: Michigan (best bet).
Missouri -27 at Iowa State—Just a side note if you got back-doored with Missouri last week. The Tigers were ahead (and covering) 41-10 with 1:11 to go and had K-State backed up to its own seven when they let somebody score on a 93-yard trot. Which brings us to this game at Iowa State, a team that can jump up and surprise you at any time. The Cyclones have been up and down this year but hung tough at Iowa, lost by just two at home to Kansas, and came this close to an upset last week at Colorado. Expect the Cyclones to put forth one more big effort here while Missouri is thinking about their game with Kansas next week or maybe the Big 12 championship game the week after.
The pick: Iowa State.
Tulsa -4 at Houston—Tulsa had a bye last week and needed it to get the Arkansas loss out of their system. In that game the Golden Hurricane made mistake after mistake and still were in position to even the game in the final minute. In fact they matched up and down the field against Arkansas time after time. Now they’ve got to focus on Houston if they want to play for the Conference USA title. And Houston should be easy pickings, even on the road. Tulsa’s got the better offense and while both teams like to throw it, Tulsa’s also got the better defense.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Thursday
Virginia Tech +4 1/2 at Miami
The pick: Virginia Tech
Second Thoughts
Last week’s 8-4 mark pulled us 11 games over the Mendoza line once again. For a long while I thought about making Texas Tech our lone best bet last week, and still don’t understand USC’s conservative offense. Regret taking Penn State after mentioning they always have trouble with Iowa, especially after a bye. Texas Tech last week proved you can't rely on the smart money, which pounded Oklahoma State down from 7 to 3 by game time.
We pulled the Florida State/Boston College game from the grid because the game's been taken off the board due to possible suspensions FSU may incur from a brawl....Can’t help thinking about next week’s Texas Tech-Oklahoma game. Both teams are offensive machines. The Sooners are nearly unbeatable in Norman, having won 60 of the 62 games Bob Stoops has coached there, including their last 25 straight. The Red Raiders have beaten Oklahoma, but not in Norman, coming no closer than 10 points in their three tries under Mike Leach. In fact they’ve won two of the last three meetings, but both were in Lubbock. With a week off to build up a game that needs no hype, it has the true feeling of a Super Bowl.
Hard to see Ohio State taking Illinois seriously after watching tapes of the Illini’s laydown at Western Michigan last week, but you better believe that the Illini will bring everything they’ve got to the table here, as they’d rather beat Ohio State than win the Big 10….Leaning toward N.C. at Maryland but Terps are a tough turtle at home…Rutgers has looked good the last two weeks and should give USF all it wants….
Washington, just a 7-point dog this week at home against beaten up UCLA, might smell its big chance to get off the schneid. Expect the Huskies to pull off the upset….Syracuse is playing hard for coach Robinson an could make UCONN their second straight upset at home…The gamblers seem to like Steve Spurrier’s S.C. Gamecocks’ chance of covering big spread and have knocked the price down to 21, but how can you bet against Florida at home when they beat everybody by 50 and love to run up the score?
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Texas visits Kansas, which has won 15 of its last 16 home games. Missouri, which looks like a lock to play for the Big 12 title, is nearly a four-touchdown favorite at Iowa State Saturday. The Cyclones nearly knocked off Kansas at home last month and last year upset Kansas State and Colorado and scared the pants off Oklahoma. BYU has to be thinking about Utah next week—even though their coach refuses to mention the game—while a very good Air Force team awaits.
Two other big favorites may also be taking this week’s opponents for granted. Ohio State, which is thinking about Michigan, has to visit Illinois which laid down for Western Michigan last week, but upset the Buckeyes last year; and Oklahoma State, which has its “Bedlam” game with the Sooners in two weeks, visits Colorado.
Last week: 8-4; Season: 80-69-1
Best bets last week: 2-1; Season: 18-15
This week’s best bets: Michigan, Oregon State and Tulsa.
Saturday
Mississippi State +22 at Alabama—Mississippi State has beaten Alabama the last two years, a fact that cost the last Alabama coach his job. And once again the Bulldogs will bring their best game to Tuscaloosa. It doesn’t matter that Alabama’s No.1 and that Miss. State is mediocre, Croom knows how to get his team ready for the Tide. And with the LSU scare barely behind them and the thought of playing Florida for the SEC championship, it might be hard for Alabama to focus this week.
The pick: Mississippi State, with some reluctance.
Texas -14 at Kansas—Texas better not look past Kansas because if they do they might be looking past a chance to be in the BCS finale. Kansas is a tough ticket at home losing just once in their last 16 home games, (vs. Texas Tech last month). Their previous loss was three seasons back in a low-scoring game vs. Oklahoma.
The Longhorns are good but they still give up points, yielding a 30 point average their last five games, and Kansas can score with the best of them. On the other hand, Nebraska had no trouble throwing against the KU secondary last week which bodes well for Colt McCoy. Sounds like a shootout.
The pick: Kansas.
USC-24 at Stanford—Okay, so you think USC has revenge on its mind for the way Stanford messed up the Trojans’ season last year. Maybe they do but if they can’t move the ball better than their performance against Cal, they’ll have a hard time pulling away. Normally the Cardinal would be down after letting Oregon score late and beat them last week, but not with USC coming to Palo Alto, and not when they need one more win to go bowling.
The pick: Stanford. This is Stanford's last home game.
Notre Dame -4 at Navy—The Irish looked like they were heading to a big bowl game before blowing a 2 TD lead to Pitt two weeks ago and getting shut out at B.C. last week. Now they’re wondering how to score again. Last year Navy finally cracked ND’s 43-year hex and won one. With their triple option as hard to defend as ever, this could be two in a row. The Midshipmen have won five of their last six including wins at Wake Forest and Air Force. Going with the hot team.
The pick: Navy.
Rutgers +8 at South Florida--Rutgers finally has put it together, winning three straight, and Teel looks terrific throwing the ball. Defending the pass is South Florida's biggest problem. After losing three of the last four USF called a team meeting. Not sure it will change things.
The pick: Rutgers.
BYU -4 at Air Force—BYU has blown out Air Force by anywhere from 17 to 25 points in their last four meetings. Why not again this year? Well, maybe they will, but this Air Force team seems much tougher. They’ve only lost in the last minute to Utah and the following week to Navy, which could have been a hangover game, too. Ever since BYU lost to TCU they’ve been sluggish and maybe they’re just biding their time until the Utah game next week. Regardless, this looks like a tough match up for the Cougars.
The pick: Air Force.
Cal +3 1/2 at Oregon State—Oregon State’s got a tough schedule with Cal and Oregon ahead but at least they control their own destiny. Cal is coming off two bruising games against Oregon and USC and we don’t think they can match the same intensity here.
The pick: Oregon State (best bet).
Northwestern +3 1/2 at Michigan—Northwestern seems all beat up and Michigan is finally coming on. Maybe they’re looking ahead to the Ohio State game and maybe they’re just going to be way too much for the Wildcats to handle on the road. We think it’s the latter.
The pick: Michigan (best bet).
Missouri -27 at Iowa State—Just a side note if you got back-doored with Missouri last week. The Tigers were ahead (and covering) 41-10 with 1:11 to go and had K-State backed up to its own seven when they let somebody score on a 93-yard trot. Which brings us to this game at Iowa State, a team that can jump up and surprise you at any time. The Cyclones have been up and down this year but hung tough at Iowa, lost by just two at home to Kansas, and came this close to an upset last week at Colorado. Expect the Cyclones to put forth one more big effort here while Missouri is thinking about their game with Kansas next week or maybe the Big 12 championship game the week after.
The pick: Iowa State.
Tulsa -4 at Houston—Tulsa had a bye last week and needed it to get the Arkansas loss out of their system. In that game the Golden Hurricane made mistake after mistake and still were in position to even the game in the final minute. In fact they matched up and down the field against Arkansas time after time. Now they’ve got to focus on Houston if they want to play for the Conference USA title. And Houston should be easy pickings, even on the road. Tulsa’s got the better offense and while both teams like to throw it, Tulsa’s also got the better defense.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Thursday
Virginia Tech +4 1/2 at Miami
The pick: Virginia Tech
Friday
Cincinnati -4 at Louisville
The pick: Cincinnati
Second Thoughts
Last week’s 8-4 mark pulled us 11 games over the Mendoza line once again. For a long while I thought about making Texas Tech our lone best bet last week, and still don’t understand USC’s conservative offense. Regret taking Penn State after mentioning they always have trouble with Iowa, especially after a bye. Texas Tech last week proved you can't rely on the smart money, which pounded Oklahoma State down from 7 to 3 by game time.
We pulled the Florida State/Boston College game from the grid because the game's been taken off the board due to possible suspensions FSU may incur from a brawl....Can’t help thinking about next week’s Texas Tech-Oklahoma game. Both teams are offensive machines. The Sooners are nearly unbeatable in Norman, having won 60 of the 62 games Bob Stoops has coached there, including their last 25 straight. The Red Raiders have beaten Oklahoma, but not in Norman, coming no closer than 10 points in their three tries under Mike Leach. In fact they’ve won two of the last three meetings, but both were in Lubbock. With a week off to build up a game that needs no hype, it has the true feeling of a Super Bowl.
Hard to see Ohio State taking Illinois seriously after watching tapes of the Illini’s laydown at Western Michigan last week, but you better believe that the Illini will bring everything they’ve got to the table here, as they’d rather beat Ohio State than win the Big 10….Leaning toward N.C. at Maryland but Terps are a tough turtle at home…Rutgers has looked good the last two weeks and should give USF all it wants….
Washington, just a 7-point dog this week at home against beaten up UCLA, might smell its big chance to get off the schneid. Expect the Huskies to pull off the upset….Syracuse is playing hard for coach Robinson an could make UCONN their second straight upset at home…The gamblers seem to like Steve Spurrier’s S.C. Gamecocks’ chance of covering big spread and have knocked the price down to 21, but how can you bet against Florida at home when they beat everybody by 50 and love to run up the score?
--30--
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
This Is No Time to Ease off the Gas for Texas Tech, Penn State and Tide
Texas Tech might not be No.1 yet, but the Red Raiders play the most entertaining football and will host another red hot team when Oklahoma State comes to Lubbock Saturday night. Last year Boone Pickins’ Cowboys won 49-45 when Michael Crabtree, of all people, dropped what would have been the winning TD pass for Tech.
The pressure will be on the Red Raiders, along with No.1 Alabama and No.3 Penn State, to win in convincing fashion. Joe Paterno might not like it, but that’s how the voters and the computers see the game these days: blow them out or you’re worthless. We’re not sure about blowouts, but we think all three will cover.
This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, USC and Stanford.
Saturday
Oklahoma State +3 at Texas Tech—This game is sandwiched in between two huge games for Texas Tech: last week’s amazing victory over Texas and Oklahoma (in two weeks). But despite the celebrating, we don’t expect a letdown. History tells us the Red Raiders have shown an ability to recover quickly the week after the Texas game, as long as that opponent isn’t the Sooners. Besides, Oklahoma State’s secondary is going to have a lot more trouble than it did against Missouri and Texas.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet). Leach will have them ready.
Alabama -3½ at LSU—Can’t see Alabama blowing it now. The Tide is exactly where they want to be and only have to win this to remain No.1. LSU has slipped, especially on defense, yielding 50+ to both Georgia and Florida, and doesn’t seem to have the heart to put an upset together here.
The pick: Alabama.
Penn State -7½ at Iowa—Will Joe Paterno get screwed out of another national championship with an undefeated team? Could be, especially if his Lions can’t put away Iowa and Michigan State with gusto. Paterno’s team has had a week off to recover from Ohio State and prepare for the improved Hawkeyes. Expect them to attack through the air.
The Hawkeyes have the Big Ten’s best red zone defense and will face the conference’s best red zone offense in Penn State. A victory would make Iowa’s season. Paterno needs to win big and hope for somebody to lose.
The pick: Penn State. Careful, though. Two of the last three times the Lions have had a bye week, they returned with a loss—against Iowa.
Cal +22 at USC—Cal continues to have quarterback problems even though Nate Longshore had success coming off the bench last week against Oregon. Longshore, though, will be a sitting duck against USC’s defense and Cal has been close to dreadful on the road this year.
USC has won its four home games this year all by at least 28 points, and the Trojans have a terrific record covering in big home games against Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame, winning their last six home meetings vs. that trio by an average of 22 points. And let’s not forget their 32-point blowout of Ohio State this year.
The pick: USC (best bet ). This game opened with Trojans an 18-point fave.
Kansas +1 at Nebraska—The Cornhuskers are embarrassed (again) after getting hammered in Norman last week and will show up big time for Kansas. Especially with payback in mind for last year’s humiliating 76-39 loss. Kansas played a near perfect game last week beating in-state rival Kansas State but its doubtful they can play that well on the road. And it’s been 40 years, 1968, since the Jayhawks won at Lincoln.
The pick: Nebraska.
Georgia Tech +4 at North Carolina—With Nesbitt at QB for Georgia Tech the Yellow Jackets have a shot to win this, but Nesbitt looks doubtful and second string QB Jaybo Shaw was very shaky in relief last week, throwing a pick and fumbling one away. Maybe he’ll be better if he gets the whole week to prepare, but N.C. had an extra week off to get ready for Tech’s triple option.
The pick: North Carolina. The Tar Heels are hot at home.
Notre Dame +3½ at Boston College—Last week’s 4 overtime loss at home to Pitt, after blowing a two touchdown lead, was devastating for Notre Dame’s season. B.C. is still 5-3 and can get to a decent bowl game with a win over the Irish. Not that the Eagles can be trusted (after allowing Clemson to take a 17-0 lead on their home field, only to recapture the lead, 21-17 and then blow it). The Irish can’t seem to beat a team with a winning record (1-10 the last two years).
The pick: Boston College. We don’t really trust either team but BC's won the last five meetings.
Cincinnati +6½ at West Virginia—West Virginia’s got its Mojo back, having won five in a row, and is playing with a ton of confidence. The Bearcats are much tougher at home than on the road where they tackle with much less efficiency. The Mountaineers have also beaten Cincinnati each of the last three years, all of them convincingly. At least the Bearcats’ QB situation looks ok with Tony Pike throwing again and Dustin Grutza a healthy back-up.
The pick: West Virginia. Rain in the forecast should works to West Virginia’s advantage.
Stanford +14 at Oregon—This isn’t your father’s Stanford or your mother’s Oregon. Under Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal have become a tough, rugged bunch who run the ball with the best of them. These teams are tied at 4-2 in the Pac-10 with a big bowl game hanging in the balance to the team that finishes second. With Oregon coming off of an emotionally difficult loss at Cal, the Ducks might just take Stanford for granted.
The pick: Stanford (best bet), in a surprising upset.
Wednesday
N. Illinois + 9½ at Ball State—Northern Illinois has won five of its last six, while not giving any of those opponents more than 13 points. Its three defeats were 31-27 at Minnesota, 29-26 at W. Michigan and 13-9 at Tennessee. All three were tough losses vs. very respectable con-conference competition. Now the Huskies visit undefeated Ball State, which is dedicating its season to injured WR Dante Love. Impressive as the Cardinals have been, they haven’t faced anyone with a defense all season. With this being a huge MAC match up, we expect this to be a close one.
The pick: Northern Illinois.
Thursday
TCU -2 at Utah—As impressive as TCU has looked blowing out BYU, Wyoming and UNLV the last three weeks, and as unimpressive as Utah looked edging out New Mexico last week, we’re going with the Utes. Home field often means everything in these classic Mountain West games and we suspect that Utah was holding back against the Lobos. Can’t fault those liking TCU in this spot, though. The Horned Frogs have been one of the best defensive teams in the country, but Utah may have their number winning the last two meetings.
The pick: Utah.
Maryland +3 at Virginia Tech—Without even knowing who the QB will be for Virginia Tech, we’re going to take the Hokies in this spot. First of all beamer doesn’t lose often at home in November. Exactly once (to Miami) in the last five years. Second of all, Maryland has not exactly lit things up on the road this year. They lost at Middle Tennessee, nearly lost at Clemson to a team that was disintegrating and then got blown out, 31-0, at Virginia. Enough said.
The pick: Virginia Tech.
Season 72-65; Last week: 4-8
Best Bets, season: 16-14; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
About last week. We don’t usually review like this, but last week was a bit unusual. While we nailed the big games (Texas Tech and Florida), we saw Virginia and Notre Dame blow comfortable leads at home, Tulsa march up and down the field and do everything but beat Arkansas, and Oregon lose a tough one at Cal. Happens to the best of them. Now let’s move on….
Decimating your opponent doesn’t guarantee you’ll move up in the polls. Just look at Oklahoma and USC. After burying Nebraska 62-28 last week, the Sooners dropped two spots from fourth to sixth in the BCS standings and USC also dropped two spots after a 56-0 victory….The last three times Ohio State had a bye it returned with a road loss, including one at Northwestern, which is this week’s opponent.
Look for a Kansas State collapse at Mizzu after coach was pulled away from the team….Maybe the opposite effect at Tennessee where Fulmer is loved and the opponent, Wyoming, looks helpless….Expecting a letdown by Wisky at Indiana after last second loss last week…Minny might be ripe for an upset by Michigan after their season fell apart with last second loss to NW last week.
Condolences to those who had TCU Thursday night. The Frogs are big, fast and mean and beat Utah like a drum for 59 minutes but couldn't hold on for the final drive. Two short missed field goals in the fourth quarter helped the Utes along with a good third-down defense and a great home crowd.
--30--
The pressure will be on the Red Raiders, along with No.1 Alabama and No.3 Penn State, to win in convincing fashion. Joe Paterno might not like it, but that’s how the voters and the computers see the game these days: blow them out or you’re worthless. We’re not sure about blowouts, but we think all three will cover.
This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, USC and Stanford.
Saturday
Oklahoma State +3 at Texas Tech—This game is sandwiched in between two huge games for Texas Tech: last week’s amazing victory over Texas and Oklahoma (in two weeks). But despite the celebrating, we don’t expect a letdown. History tells us the Red Raiders have shown an ability to recover quickly the week after the Texas game, as long as that opponent isn’t the Sooners. Besides, Oklahoma State’s secondary is going to have a lot more trouble than it did against Missouri and Texas.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet). Leach will have them ready.
Alabama -3½ at LSU—Can’t see Alabama blowing it now. The Tide is exactly where they want to be and only have to win this to remain No.1. LSU has slipped, especially on defense, yielding 50+ to both Georgia and Florida, and doesn’t seem to have the heart to put an upset together here.
The pick: Alabama.
Penn State -7½ at Iowa—Will Joe Paterno get screwed out of another national championship with an undefeated team? Could be, especially if his Lions can’t put away Iowa and Michigan State with gusto. Paterno’s team has had a week off to recover from Ohio State and prepare for the improved Hawkeyes. Expect them to attack through the air.
The Hawkeyes have the Big Ten’s best red zone defense and will face the conference’s best red zone offense in Penn State. A victory would make Iowa’s season. Paterno needs to win big and hope for somebody to lose.
The pick: Penn State. Careful, though. Two of the last three times the Lions have had a bye week, they returned with a loss—against Iowa.
Cal +22 at USC—Cal continues to have quarterback problems even though Nate Longshore had success coming off the bench last week against Oregon. Longshore, though, will be a sitting duck against USC’s defense and Cal has been close to dreadful on the road this year.
USC has won its four home games this year all by at least 28 points, and the Trojans have a terrific record covering in big home games against Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame, winning their last six home meetings vs. that trio by an average of 22 points. And let’s not forget their 32-point blowout of Ohio State this year.
The pick: USC (best bet ). This game opened with Trojans an 18-point fave.
Kansas +1 at Nebraska—The Cornhuskers are embarrassed (again) after getting hammered in Norman last week and will show up big time for Kansas. Especially with payback in mind for last year’s humiliating 76-39 loss. Kansas played a near perfect game last week beating in-state rival Kansas State but its doubtful they can play that well on the road. And it’s been 40 years, 1968, since the Jayhawks won at Lincoln.
The pick: Nebraska.
Georgia Tech +4 at North Carolina—With Nesbitt at QB for Georgia Tech the Yellow Jackets have a shot to win this, but Nesbitt looks doubtful and second string QB Jaybo Shaw was very shaky in relief last week, throwing a pick and fumbling one away. Maybe he’ll be better if he gets the whole week to prepare, but N.C. had an extra week off to get ready for Tech’s triple option.
The pick: North Carolina. The Tar Heels are hot at home.
Notre Dame +3½ at Boston College—Last week’s 4 overtime loss at home to Pitt, after blowing a two touchdown lead, was devastating for Notre Dame’s season. B.C. is still 5-3 and can get to a decent bowl game with a win over the Irish. Not that the Eagles can be trusted (after allowing Clemson to take a 17-0 lead on their home field, only to recapture the lead, 21-17 and then blow it). The Irish can’t seem to beat a team with a winning record (1-10 the last two years).
The pick: Boston College. We don’t really trust either team but BC's won the last five meetings.
Cincinnati +6½ at West Virginia—West Virginia’s got its Mojo back, having won five in a row, and is playing with a ton of confidence. The Bearcats are much tougher at home than on the road where they tackle with much less efficiency. The Mountaineers have also beaten Cincinnati each of the last three years, all of them convincingly. At least the Bearcats’ QB situation looks ok with Tony Pike throwing again and Dustin Grutza a healthy back-up.
The pick: West Virginia. Rain in the forecast should works to West Virginia’s advantage.
Stanford +14 at Oregon—This isn’t your father’s Stanford or your mother’s Oregon. Under Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal have become a tough, rugged bunch who run the ball with the best of them. These teams are tied at 4-2 in the Pac-10 with a big bowl game hanging in the balance to the team that finishes second. With Oregon coming off of an emotionally difficult loss at Cal, the Ducks might just take Stanford for granted.
The pick: Stanford (best bet), in a surprising upset.
Wednesday
N. Illinois + 9½ at Ball State—Northern Illinois has won five of its last six, while not giving any of those opponents more than 13 points. Its three defeats were 31-27 at Minnesota, 29-26 at W. Michigan and 13-9 at Tennessee. All three were tough losses vs. very respectable con-conference competition. Now the Huskies visit undefeated Ball State, which is dedicating its season to injured WR Dante Love. Impressive as the Cardinals have been, they haven’t faced anyone with a defense all season. With this being a huge MAC match up, we expect this to be a close one.
The pick: Northern Illinois.
Thursday
TCU -2 at Utah—As impressive as TCU has looked blowing out BYU, Wyoming and UNLV the last three weeks, and as unimpressive as Utah looked edging out New Mexico last week, we’re going with the Utes. Home field often means everything in these classic Mountain West games and we suspect that Utah was holding back against the Lobos. Can’t fault those liking TCU in this spot, though. The Horned Frogs have been one of the best defensive teams in the country, but Utah may have their number winning the last two meetings.
The pick: Utah.
Maryland +3 at Virginia Tech—Without even knowing who the QB will be for Virginia Tech, we’re going to take the Hokies in this spot. First of all beamer doesn’t lose often at home in November. Exactly once (to Miami) in the last five years. Second of all, Maryland has not exactly lit things up on the road this year. They lost at Middle Tennessee, nearly lost at Clemson to a team that was disintegrating and then got blown out, 31-0, at Virginia. Enough said.
The pick: Virginia Tech.
Season 72-65; Last week: 4-8
Best Bets, season: 16-14; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
About last week. We don’t usually review like this, but last week was a bit unusual. While we nailed the big games (Texas Tech and Florida), we saw Virginia and Notre Dame blow comfortable leads at home, Tulsa march up and down the field and do everything but beat Arkansas, and Oregon lose a tough one at Cal. Happens to the best of them. Now let’s move on….
Decimating your opponent doesn’t guarantee you’ll move up in the polls. Just look at Oklahoma and USC. After burying Nebraska 62-28 last week, the Sooners dropped two spots from fourth to sixth in the BCS standings and USC also dropped two spots after a 56-0 victory….The last three times Ohio State had a bye it returned with a road loss, including one at Northwestern, which is this week’s opponent.
Look for a Kansas State collapse at Mizzu after coach was pulled away from the team….Maybe the opposite effect at Tennessee where Fulmer is loved and the opponent, Wyoming, looks helpless….Expecting a letdown by Wisky at Indiana after last second loss last week…Minny might be ripe for an upset by Michigan after their season fell apart with last second loss to NW last week.
Condolences to those who had TCU Thursday night. The Frogs are big, fast and mean and beat Utah like a drum for 59 minutes but couldn't hold on for the final drive. Two short missed field goals in the fourth quarter helped the Utes along with a good third-down defense and a great home crowd.
--30--
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Is Texas at the End of its Rope?
After taking the last five encounters, you might think that Texas' Mack Brown owns Texas Tech's Mike Leach. Maybe so, but maybe the BCS title trail will end here, in Lubbock, for the Longhorns this time.
For all practical purposes, Texas should beat Texas Tech on any given year. Texas is a national school with a great salesman leading it in Brown who has recruiting tools that are unmatchable. Tech has a brilliant coach and a shoestring budget.
But somehow Tech has been competitive. They beat Texas in '98 and '02 and should have beaten them two years ago in Lubbock after building a 21-0 lead. They lost that game 35-31, getting shutout in the second half.
This time should be different. This time Texas doesn't have the running game to control the clock, or the secondary to match up. This time Leach's pirate mentality may lead to the upset he's been striving for. One that could propel his team to an undefeated season. Reagardless, we like the Red Raiders chances Saturday night.
This week's best bets: Florida, Tulsa and Virginia.
Saturday
Texas -3 1/2 at Texas Tech—In case you haven’t noticed, Texas Tech is awfully hard to defend. Even for No.1 Texas, and especially at Lubbock. This year should be no exception. With the Longhorns coming down from three straight brutal battles, and with Tech looking forward to this game all year, this could be the end of the trail for Texas.
The pick: Texas Tech.
Florida -6 1/2 vs. Georgia—LSU couldn’t take advantage of Georgia’s weakened offensive line, but Florida will. Outside of Tulsa, Florida is probably the fastest team in the country. And the Gators have a defense that even Georgia will have hard time scoring against. If Georgia gives up 38 points and 500 yards (as vs. LSU) you can put as fork in their season.
Urban Meyer got a break in the schedule with Kentucky last week, making it easy for Florida to build up to this game. And other than their one-point loss to Mississippi, the Gators have beaten everyone by 23 or more. With the emphasis on or more.The Gators are also reminded of Georgia's bad-mannered celebration last year.
The pick: Florida (best bet).
Oregon +2 1/2 at Cal—This is a huge game with Pac-10 title ramifications. The last two years the visitor has come out on top and Oregon should make it three in a row. Cal’s passing game isn’t that big a threat and the Ducks are running better than anybody. It will be close making the 3-point take all the more attractive.
The pick: Oregon.
Auburn +6 1/2 at Mississippi—Hate to give an Auburn road team this many points but last week’s loss at West Virginia showed just how bad Auburn can be. The Tigers have huge problems scoring and their defense installed the bullfighter defense in the second half. Meanwhile, Ole Miss’ defense has been terrific and QB Jevan Senad is very underrated. At 4-4 this is a must win if the Rebels want to have a shot at a bowl game.
The pick: Mississippi.
Miami +2 at Virginia—Virginia’s hot, taking four in a row and playing great defense. Now the Cavs return home against a Miami team that's won three in a row but struggles on the road. Last week’s Virginia win at Georgia Tech was strictly a case of team that believes in itself. That’s powerful stuff to go against if you’re a team, like Miami, without much offense.
The pick: Virginia (best bet).
Northwestern +7 at Minnesota—Tim Brewster’s done an incredible job turning around Minnesota’s program and now the Gophers have a chance to finish 11-1, believe it or not. We should have seen it coming last year when they lost 28-27 to Penn State. Now at 3-1 in the Big 10 and fresh off two straight triumphs at Illinois and Purdue, Minnesota can take control at home against a depleted Northwestern team. The Wildcats are coming off a tough defeat at Indiana and also lost their top offensive threat, RB Tyrell Sutton, for the season. NW starting QB Bacher is also questionable with a leg injury.
The pick: Minnesota.
West Virginia -3 1/2 at Connecticut—West Virginia finally woke up in the second half last week against offensively-challenged Auburn, but has been anything but stellar on the road this year, losing at East Carolina and Colorado. UConn, though, looks tougher than ever at home—where they’ve won 10 straight—especially now that they’ve found an efficient QB in 20-year-old freshman Cody Endres. The Huskies are also tough on D, yielding less than 13 a game this year.
The pick: Connecticut, which took a 66-21 pasting last year.
Tulsa -7 at Arkansas—This game means everything to Tulsa and very little to Arkansas. The Golden Hurricanes are 8-0 and trying to get some recognition. They also lead the country gaining over 17 yards for every completed pass. They’re probably the fastest team in the country and when they strike it’s like watching a blur. Arkansas had its big games losing to Alabama, Texas, Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi. The last two were very tough defeats. Can’t see them getting up for this one. This is also a revenge game for Gus Malzahn, Tulsa’s offensive guru who wasn’t allowed to do his thing at Arkansas.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Pitt +4½ at Notre Dame—This could be a slugfest with each team scoring in the 30s, but the question that surrounds Pitt's QB situation (QB Stull was knocked out) makes this decision easier. The Panthers also lost their starting center for the season. Notre Dame believes in itself again and must be licking its chops waiting to attack the Pitt secondary.
The pick: Notre Dame.
Arizona State +15 1/2 at Oregon State—Arizona State is falling apart and on the road, while Oregon State is fighting for the Pac-10 title. The Beavers shouldn’t have any trouble with this visitor with so much at stake.
The pick: Oregon State. This line opened at 12 and has shot up since.
Washington State +30 at Stanford—Washington State has lost all seven of its FCS games by anywhere from 26 to 69 points this year, and the spreads have been increasing recently. Maybe the week off helped the poor Cougars. But Stanford can pound the ball as well as anybody, and teams with a running game have taken them apart.
The pick: Stanford.
Temple +7 at Navy—Temple’s had a hard time putting points on the board this year and will find it even more difficult with Navy controlling the clock. The Midshipmen get senior starting QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhadaback this week, just in time for Senior Day. A win makes Navy officially bowl eligible as well. The Owls got some experience defending the option by beating Army in the season opener, but Navy’s triple option is much harder to stop.
The pick: Navy.
Last week: 8-6; Season: 68-57-1
Best Bets Season: 15-12; Last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
Going with just 12 games on the board this week; games we really like rather than adding some games of interest without a strong opinion…Last week 10 out 13 teams that saw twp-point moves in their direction or more, covered! This week’s two-point plus money movers so far are: Kent, Virginia, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Army, Kansas State and Arizona State…
Nebraska is coming together and should be able to score on the Sooners with MLB Reynolds sidelined…Iowa should take advantage of bye week and add to its momentum against a suddenly struggling Illinois team…Texas A&M suddenly has a passing game just in time Colorado’s leaky secondary….Michigan, showing signs of improvement might upset a Purdue team that’s thrown in the towel….
It’s hard to like Cincy Thursday night when their offense is built around the QB and their QBs keep getting hurt. USF will not have anything close to a cakewalk, as Bearcats play super athyome especially at night on ESPN…BYU might get more than they expected at Colorado State this week… Look for Georgia Tech to bounce back vs. FSU. The Seminoles still make too many big mistakes for my money….Rice’s QB Chase Clement should be able to light up UTEP secondary, even in El Paso…If East Carolina wants to go to a decent bowl they’re going to have to beat UCF convincingly…
Even with Spiller coming back, can't see Clemson pulling together. This team is a head case that tried for a little while for the new coach at home but lost. Now they go up to Boston where they'll probably curtsy and lay down. B.C. needs it much more and should win handily....Like Army’s chance getting 9 at home from Air Force in a big rivalry game…. Liked Utah State’s chances against a bumbling Hawaii team, but the Aggies are still crying in their beer after losing last week on a 58-yard FG by Fresno State as time ran out. They also lost both first and second team centers in that game to MCLs.
The Urban Meyer Sportsmanship Award
With Florida already leading Kentucky 49-3 in the second half (last Saturday) Urban Meyer allowed Tim Tebow to stay in the game. Tebow proceded to lead Florida on a 16-play, 78-yard scoring drive in which he passed SIX TIMES, and ran the ball twice, pushing the score to 56-3.
Was Meyer afraid he'd slip in the polls? What the hell are his starters doing in the game with the score 49-3? Does Meyer have it in for Kentucky that much? It's one thing to play to win and it's another to play to humiliate.
--30--
For all practical purposes, Texas should beat Texas Tech on any given year. Texas is a national school with a great salesman leading it in Brown who has recruiting tools that are unmatchable. Tech has a brilliant coach and a shoestring budget.
But somehow Tech has been competitive. They beat Texas in '98 and '02 and should have beaten them two years ago in Lubbock after building a 21-0 lead. They lost that game 35-31, getting shutout in the second half.
This time should be different. This time Texas doesn't have the running game to control the clock, or the secondary to match up. This time Leach's pirate mentality may lead to the upset he's been striving for. One that could propel his team to an undefeated season. Reagardless, we like the Red Raiders chances Saturday night.
This week's best bets: Florida, Tulsa and Virginia.
Saturday
Texas -3 1/2 at Texas Tech—In case you haven’t noticed, Texas Tech is awfully hard to defend. Even for No.1 Texas, and especially at Lubbock. This year should be no exception. With the Longhorns coming down from three straight brutal battles, and with Tech looking forward to this game all year, this could be the end of the trail for Texas.
The pick: Texas Tech.
Florida -6 1/2 vs. Georgia—LSU couldn’t take advantage of Georgia’s weakened offensive line, but Florida will. Outside of Tulsa, Florida is probably the fastest team in the country. And the Gators have a defense that even Georgia will have hard time scoring against. If Georgia gives up 38 points and 500 yards (as vs. LSU) you can put as fork in their season.
Urban Meyer got a break in the schedule with Kentucky last week, making it easy for Florida to build up to this game. And other than their one-point loss to Mississippi, the Gators have beaten everyone by 23 or more. With the emphasis on or more.The Gators are also reminded of Georgia's bad-mannered celebration last year.
The pick: Florida (best bet).
Oregon +2 1/2 at Cal—This is a huge game with Pac-10 title ramifications. The last two years the visitor has come out on top and Oregon should make it three in a row. Cal’s passing game isn’t that big a threat and the Ducks are running better than anybody. It will be close making the 3-point take all the more attractive.
The pick: Oregon.
Auburn +6 1/2 at Mississippi—Hate to give an Auburn road team this many points but last week’s loss at West Virginia showed just how bad Auburn can be. The Tigers have huge problems scoring and their defense installed the bullfighter defense in the second half. Meanwhile, Ole Miss’ defense has been terrific and QB Jevan Senad is very underrated. At 4-4 this is a must win if the Rebels want to have a shot at a bowl game.
The pick: Mississippi.
Miami +2 at Virginia—Virginia’s hot, taking four in a row and playing great defense. Now the Cavs return home against a Miami team that's won three in a row but struggles on the road. Last week’s Virginia win at Georgia Tech was strictly a case of team that believes in itself. That’s powerful stuff to go against if you’re a team, like Miami, without much offense.
The pick: Virginia (best bet).
Northwestern +7 at Minnesota—Tim Brewster’s done an incredible job turning around Minnesota’s program and now the Gophers have a chance to finish 11-1, believe it or not. We should have seen it coming last year when they lost 28-27 to Penn State. Now at 3-1 in the Big 10 and fresh off two straight triumphs at Illinois and Purdue, Minnesota can take control at home against a depleted Northwestern team. The Wildcats are coming off a tough defeat at Indiana and also lost their top offensive threat, RB Tyrell Sutton, for the season. NW starting QB Bacher is also questionable with a leg injury.
The pick: Minnesota.
West Virginia -3 1/2 at Connecticut—West Virginia finally woke up in the second half last week against offensively-challenged Auburn, but has been anything but stellar on the road this year, losing at East Carolina and Colorado. UConn, though, looks tougher than ever at home—where they’ve won 10 straight—especially now that they’ve found an efficient QB in 20-year-old freshman Cody Endres. The Huskies are also tough on D, yielding less than 13 a game this year.
The pick: Connecticut, which took a 66-21 pasting last year.
Tulsa -7 at Arkansas—This game means everything to Tulsa and very little to Arkansas. The Golden Hurricanes are 8-0 and trying to get some recognition. They also lead the country gaining over 17 yards for every completed pass. They’re probably the fastest team in the country and when they strike it’s like watching a blur. Arkansas had its big games losing to Alabama, Texas, Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi. The last two were very tough defeats. Can’t see them getting up for this one. This is also a revenge game for Gus Malzahn, Tulsa’s offensive guru who wasn’t allowed to do his thing at Arkansas.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Pitt +4½ at Notre Dame—This could be a slugfest with each team scoring in the 30s, but the question that surrounds Pitt's QB situation (QB Stull was knocked out) makes this decision easier. The Panthers also lost their starting center for the season. Notre Dame believes in itself again and must be licking its chops waiting to attack the Pitt secondary.
The pick: Notre Dame.
Arizona State +15 1/2 at Oregon State—Arizona State is falling apart and on the road, while Oregon State is fighting for the Pac-10 title. The Beavers shouldn’t have any trouble with this visitor with so much at stake.
The pick: Oregon State. This line opened at 12 and has shot up since.
Washington State +30 at Stanford—Washington State has lost all seven of its FCS games by anywhere from 26 to 69 points this year, and the spreads have been increasing recently. Maybe the week off helped the poor Cougars. But Stanford can pound the ball as well as anybody, and teams with a running game have taken them apart.
The pick: Stanford.
Temple +7 at Navy—Temple’s had a hard time putting points on the board this year and will find it even more difficult with Navy controlling the clock. The Midshipmen get senior starting QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhadaback this week, just in time for Senior Day. A win makes Navy officially bowl eligible as well. The Owls got some experience defending the option by beating Army in the season opener, but Navy’s triple option is much harder to stop.
The pick: Navy.
Last week: 8-6; Season: 68-57-1
Best Bets Season: 15-12; Last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
Going with just 12 games on the board this week; games we really like rather than adding some games of interest without a strong opinion…Last week 10 out 13 teams that saw twp-point moves in their direction or more, covered! This week’s two-point plus money movers so far are: Kent, Virginia, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Army, Kansas State and Arizona State…
Nebraska is coming together and should be able to score on the Sooners with MLB Reynolds sidelined…Iowa should take advantage of bye week and add to its momentum against a suddenly struggling Illinois team…Texas A&M suddenly has a passing game just in time Colorado’s leaky secondary….Michigan, showing signs of improvement might upset a Purdue team that’s thrown in the towel….
It’s hard to like Cincy Thursday night when their offense is built around the QB and their QBs keep getting hurt. USF will not have anything close to a cakewalk, as Bearcats play super athyome especially at night on ESPN…BYU might get more than they expected at Colorado State this week… Look for Georgia Tech to bounce back vs. FSU. The Seminoles still make too many big mistakes for my money….Rice’s QB Chase Clement should be able to light up UTEP secondary, even in El Paso…If East Carolina wants to go to a decent bowl they’re going to have to beat UCF convincingly…
Even with Spiller coming back, can't see Clemson pulling together. This team is a head case that tried for a little while for the new coach at home but lost. Now they go up to Boston where they'll probably curtsy and lay down. B.C. needs it much more and should win handily....Like Army’s chance getting 9 at home from Air Force in a big rivalry game…. Liked Utah State’s chances against a bumbling Hawaii team, but the Aggies are still crying in their beer after losing last week on a 58-yard FG by Fresno State as time ran out. They also lost both first and second team centers in that game to MCLs.
The Urban Meyer Sportsmanship Award
With Florida already leading Kentucky 49-3 in the second half (last Saturday) Urban Meyer allowed Tim Tebow to stay in the game. Tebow proceded to lead Florida on a 16-play, 78-yard scoring drive in which he passed SIX TIMES, and ran the ball twice, pushing the score to 56-3.
Was Meyer afraid he'd slip in the polls? What the hell are his starters doing in the game with the score 49-3? Does Meyer have it in for Kentucky that much? It's one thing to play to win and it's another to play to humiliate.
--30--
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Podolsky Tabs $319 Cold Exacta; Sunday: Tulsa May Score 100 vs. UCF
By picking Raven's Pass first and Henrythenavigator second, Rich Podolsky nailed the $319 exacta in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Raven's Pass was one of three winners he selected on the big day. The others were best bet Goldikova in the Mile and Midnight Lute in he Sprint. (Scroll down to see his Breeders' Cup picks).
Sunday
UCF + 23½ at Tulsa—This looks like a revenge game for Tulsa, who lost twice last year to UCF, including in the Conference USA title game. Last week, trailing 28-21 to a UTEP team fresh from three straight wins, Tulsa, buried them, 77-35. In fact in their four home games this year Tulsa has averaged 65 points. Don’t see how UCF can keep up, unless Tulsa lets down. Which is unlikely with the game on ESPN.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet). Triple digits for the Golden Hurricane is not out of the question.
***
Sunday
UCF + 23½ at Tulsa—This looks like a revenge game for Tulsa, who lost twice last year to UCF, including in the Conference USA title game. Last week, trailing 28-21 to a UTEP team fresh from three straight wins, Tulsa, buried them, 77-35. In fact in their four home games this year Tulsa has averaged 65 points. Don’t see how UCF can keep up, unless Tulsa lets down. Which is unlikely with the game on ESPN.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet). Triple digits for the Golden Hurricane is not out of the question.
***
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Shades of '78 for Paterno & Beano
It’s been quite a while since Penn State won a game in Columbus, 30 years to be exact. And they're 0-7 since that victory, Sept. 16, 1978. That's when Joe Paterno brought in an experienced Lion team and beat Woody Hayes in the season-opener 19-0. It marked the debut of Buckeye freshman QB Art Schlichter, who was intercepted five times. It was also the last time the Buckeyes lost a home opener. Then again, when you schedule teams from the MAC, there isn’t much chance of losing.
The day before that game, half a dozen college football enthusiasts from CBS Sports gathered round Beano Cook (then doing publicity for CBS) at Mike Manuche’s restaurant on West 52nd St. in Manhattan. (I was one of those lucky six). Beano was, and still is, one of the keenest college football minds around, which was why guys like Dan Jenkins and Paul Hornung would frequently crash his lunch.
A few years before (while at ABC) Beano told Roone Arledge if he moved the Texas-Arkansas game from September to the end of the season that they’d play for the national championship. Arledge did and they did, and President Nixon showed up to present the trophy. Only thing was, Penn State was also undefeated and got screwed. Neither Arledge nor Nixon cared.
The food at Manuche’s was good but the only reason the CBS staffers came to the lunch was to hear Beano’s picks, which usually were delivered with dessert. That day Beano predicted that Penn State, a six-point dog, would shut out Ohio State. He was so sure he guaranteed it. These were strong words, even from Beano.
Most of those in attendance made small bets on the Lions, but producer Bill Creasy, a high roller, said he would bet a small fortune. The next Friday, after Penn State's 19-0 whitewash, Creasy brought a guest to the lunch. It was a very sexy young lady in a skimpy dress and pig tails. Creasy planted her next to Beano.
“Beano,” Creasy said, “this is Maria.”
“Ooooh,” said Beano, as she grabbed him under the table. “I always liked pigtails.”
This week’s best bets: Auburn, LSU, and Tulsa.
Saturday's Breeders’ Cup picks are below.
Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10
Saturday
Penn State -2 at Ohio State—The Buckeyes need to play every bit as well as they did against Michigan State to stay in this game. Despite the winning streak at the Horseshoe they own over the Lions, this looks like a Nittany Lion team capable of overcoming history. Penn State has a better quarterback, better receivers, better special teams and more overall speed.
The pick: Penn State.
Oklahoma State +11½ at Texas—Don’t look for Texas to ease off the throttle now. The Ok. State defense is made to order for Colt McCoy, who should be able to avoid any rush the Cowboys throw at him. If Texas is to have a slip it might come next week at Texas Tech. This could be another mismatch.
The pick: Texas.
USC-15 at Arizona—As dominant as USC seems to be, they’re quite ordinary on the road in the Pac 10. Before last week’s 69-0 win at Washington State, the Trojans only covered in three of their previous 10 conference road games, losing four outright. It’s because everyone gets up for USC and there will be no difference at Arizona. The Wildcats have become believers after pounding Cal last week, and need to beat USC to stay in a first-place tie for the Pac-10 lead.
The pick: Arizona.
Georgia +1 at LSU—Under Mark Richt the Bulldogs have been sensational on the road, winning 17 of their last 21 games away from home, but they didn’t win on their last trip to Baton Rouge. It might be easier to win in Iraq than at LSU at night, and trying to win with an offensive line missing most of its starters is asking too much. LSU showed a huge improvement last week and its defense should dominate the Bulldogs.
The pick: LSU (best bet).
Wake Forest +2½ at Miami—All of a sudden Wake can’t score. In their last four games the Deacs have averaged 10 points a game against so-so competition. Miami, on the other hand, looks like its got the better athletes and momentum on its side.
The pick: Miami.
Texas Tech +1 at Kansas—Even though Tech is ranked in the Top 10, it can’t seem to get its defense off the field very often, causing games against Texas A&M and Nebraska to be much closer than necessary. No fault of the Red Raider offense which seems to move the ball the length of the field every time they get it.
Kansas’ offense is similar to Tech’s but not quite as potent and its defense is about equal. After getting beat up last week at Oklahoma, and with state rival Kansas State ahead next week, KU might not be as sharp or as healthy as they’d like to be. Tech may also be looking ahead to a visit from Texas next week in Lubbock.
The pick: Texas Tech, if they can make their PATs this week.
Va. Tech +6 at Florida State—Still not convince FSU is as good as everyone seems to think they are, but there are some flashes, especially at quarterback, where a running QB makes a world of difference. Tech looks very one dimensional on offense this year, with cracks showing on defense and special teams.
The pick: Florida State.
Baylor +13 at Nebraska—This is Baylor’s second straight road game after getting pounded by Ok. State last week, 34-6, with Missouri to look forward to next week. Brutal. Nebraska has found its center and is running the ball up everyone’s throat like the old days. Bylor’s improved but they’re also beat up.
The pick: Nebraska.
Mississippi -6½ at Arkansas—Ole Miss left it all on the field last week at Alabama, and if they didn’t leave it there it was deposited at Florida two weeks earlier. This has been a brutal stretch for the Rebels, with this being their thirds road game in four weeks, with Auburn up next. Can’t see a similar effort coming this week against an Arkansas team that’s vastly improved.
The pick: Arkansas.
SMU +12 at Navy—After playing Tulsa closer than anyone in a 37-31 loss, and losing last week in the last minute to Houston, 44-38, playing Navy on the road has to be a tall order for a team that’s drained both physically and mentally. Only a back-door cover can slow down the Midshipmen in this spot.
The pick: Navy.
Bowling Green +7 at N. Illinois—Northern Illinois has quietly put together a nice resume this year. They’ve won four of their last five with the lone loss a 13-9 defeat at Tennessee. During that five-game span the Huskies D gave up a total of 36 points. After a fast start BG has lost 4 of 6, with inexplicable home losses to E. Mich. and Miami (Oh). Now with starting QB Chandler Harnish back in the saddle, N. Ill. should roll.
The pick: Northern Ill.
C. Michigan -3½ at Toledo—Central Michigan is getting better by the week, while Toledo seems to be falling apart. With QB Dan Lefevour sidelined, Brian Brunner took over and went 20-28 vs. foe Western Michigan for 346 yards and a TD. No problem.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Sunday
UCF + 23½ at Tulsa—This looks like a revenge game for Tulsa, who lost twice last year to UCF, including in the Conference USA title game. Last week, trailing 28-21 to a UTEP team fresh from three straight wins, Tulsa, buried them, 77-35. In fact in their four home games this year Tulsa has averaged 65 points. Don’t see how UCF can keep up, unless Tulsa lets down.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Thursday
Auburn +3½ at West Virginia—Auburn is one of the best road teams around. Under Tommy T. they’ve won 10 of their last 13 on the road outright. Tuberville has had 12 days to improve his offense since changing coordinators. West Virginia continues to disappoint, even in victory.
The pick: Auburn (best bet). WV hasn’t seen a defense this fast.
Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10
Second Thoughts
After a second straight week going 9 and 5 we’ve pulled 9 points ahead of the Mendoza Line. Last week it didn’t pay to follow the late money. Five of the six teams we listed that had late moves of one point or more, failed to cover.
Can’t see Boise losing to San Jose, and they should win by more than a TD…Alabama without Cody is an offense looking for direction. The defense is still solid and so is Tennessee’s, so look for a close, low-scoring game….Pitt should handle Rutgers, now that the Panthers have a ton of confidence….Oregon, despite a mediocre passing game, should still keep Arizona State safe….
Louisville had a nice comeback last week vs. Middle Tennessee, but this South Florida they’re playing which is 3-0 on the road this year…Look for Vandy and Duke to have a game over 70 unless weather plays a roll…Indiana, of all teams, is taking money vs. Northwestern…It looks like Virginia’s three-game winning streak might be in trouble at Georgia Tech this week... Colorado doesn’t have the people to either cover or put pressure on Missouri. Look for a blowout at Mizzu.
Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup
Twenty-four years ago I was part of a small, elite team that put the first Breeders’ Cup together. I worked closely with founder John Gaines and Hall of Fame trainer John Nerud to try and accomplish their goal of creating a year-end spectacular for their sport. They wanted to have the best horses in every category (dirt, grass, sprinters, distance, male, female) compete, and then rotate this great event at race tracks all over the world. Until this year, that his been the case.
What they didn’t have in mind was having some of the best dirt horses in the world avoiding the event because the so-called “dirt races” were being run on a synthetic surface that played like grass. They didn’t have in mind great trainers like Nick Zito staying back in New York and not sending a single horse to compete.
But that’s what this 25th edition of the Cup has come to at Santa Anita this year (and next). If Curlin doesn't win the Classic there will be a ton more staying home next year. For handicappers, picking horses on synthetic surfaces is like throwing darts. The Cup will experience a handle drop off, next year, if not this one too, because of the uncertainty of the surface. The message here is to go easy on races that are not run over the turf.
Marathon— Zappa, Delightful Kiss, Sixties Icon
Turf Sprint— Fleeting Spirit, Salute the Count, Diabolical
Dirt Mile—First Defense, Well Armed, Pyro
Mile—Goldikova (best bet), Whatsthescript,, Prescious Kitten
Juvenile—Square Eddie, Pioneer of the Nile, Munnings
Juvenile Turf—Bittle Road, Skipdate, Grand Adventure
Sprint—Midnight Lute, Fabulous Strike, Lewis Michael
Turf—Soldier of Fortune, Winchester, Eagle Mountain
Classic—Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator, Go Between, Curlin, Student Council, Duke of Marmalade
--30--
The day before that game, half a dozen college football enthusiasts from CBS Sports gathered round Beano Cook (then doing publicity for CBS) at Mike Manuche’s restaurant on West 52nd St. in Manhattan. (I was one of those lucky six). Beano was, and still is, one of the keenest college football minds around, which was why guys like Dan Jenkins and Paul Hornung would frequently crash his lunch.
A few years before (while at ABC) Beano told Roone Arledge if he moved the Texas-Arkansas game from September to the end of the season that they’d play for the national championship. Arledge did and they did, and President Nixon showed up to present the trophy. Only thing was, Penn State was also undefeated and got screwed. Neither Arledge nor Nixon cared.
The food at Manuche’s was good but the only reason the CBS staffers came to the lunch was to hear Beano’s picks, which usually were delivered with dessert. That day Beano predicted that Penn State, a six-point dog, would shut out Ohio State. He was so sure he guaranteed it. These were strong words, even from Beano.
Most of those in attendance made small bets on the Lions, but producer Bill Creasy, a high roller, said he would bet a small fortune. The next Friday, after Penn State's 19-0 whitewash, Creasy brought a guest to the lunch. It was a very sexy young lady in a skimpy dress and pig tails. Creasy planted her next to Beano.
“Beano,” Creasy said, “this is Maria.”
“Ooooh,” said Beano, as she grabbed him under the table. “I always liked pigtails.”
This week’s best bets: Auburn, LSU, and Tulsa.
Saturday's Breeders’ Cup picks are below.
Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10
Saturday
Penn State -2 at Ohio State—The Buckeyes need to play every bit as well as they did against Michigan State to stay in this game. Despite the winning streak at the Horseshoe they own over the Lions, this looks like a Nittany Lion team capable of overcoming history. Penn State has a better quarterback, better receivers, better special teams and more overall speed.
The pick: Penn State.
Oklahoma State +11½ at Texas—Don’t look for Texas to ease off the throttle now. The Ok. State defense is made to order for Colt McCoy, who should be able to avoid any rush the Cowboys throw at him. If Texas is to have a slip it might come next week at Texas Tech. This could be another mismatch.
The pick: Texas.
USC-15 at Arizona—As dominant as USC seems to be, they’re quite ordinary on the road in the Pac 10. Before last week’s 69-0 win at Washington State, the Trojans only covered in three of their previous 10 conference road games, losing four outright. It’s because everyone gets up for USC and there will be no difference at Arizona. The Wildcats have become believers after pounding Cal last week, and need to beat USC to stay in a first-place tie for the Pac-10 lead.
The pick: Arizona.
Georgia +1 at LSU—Under Mark Richt the Bulldogs have been sensational on the road, winning 17 of their last 21 games away from home, but they didn’t win on their last trip to Baton Rouge. It might be easier to win in Iraq than at LSU at night, and trying to win with an offensive line missing most of its starters is asking too much. LSU showed a huge improvement last week and its defense should dominate the Bulldogs.
The pick: LSU (best bet).
Wake Forest +2½ at Miami—All of a sudden Wake can’t score. In their last four games the Deacs have averaged 10 points a game against so-so competition. Miami, on the other hand, looks like its got the better athletes and momentum on its side.
The pick: Miami.
Texas Tech +1 at Kansas—Even though Tech is ranked in the Top 10, it can’t seem to get its defense off the field very often, causing games against Texas A&M and Nebraska to be much closer than necessary. No fault of the Red Raider offense which seems to move the ball the length of the field every time they get it.
Kansas’ offense is similar to Tech’s but not quite as potent and its defense is about equal. After getting beat up last week at Oklahoma, and with state rival Kansas State ahead next week, KU might not be as sharp or as healthy as they’d like to be. Tech may also be looking ahead to a visit from Texas next week in Lubbock.
The pick: Texas Tech, if they can make their PATs this week.
Va. Tech +6 at Florida State—Still not convince FSU is as good as everyone seems to think they are, but there are some flashes, especially at quarterback, where a running QB makes a world of difference. Tech looks very one dimensional on offense this year, with cracks showing on defense and special teams.
The pick: Florida State.
Baylor +13 at Nebraska—This is Baylor’s second straight road game after getting pounded by Ok. State last week, 34-6, with Missouri to look forward to next week. Brutal. Nebraska has found its center and is running the ball up everyone’s throat like the old days. Bylor’s improved but they’re also beat up.
The pick: Nebraska.
Mississippi -6½ at Arkansas—Ole Miss left it all on the field last week at Alabama, and if they didn’t leave it there it was deposited at Florida two weeks earlier. This has been a brutal stretch for the Rebels, with this being their thirds road game in four weeks, with Auburn up next. Can’t see a similar effort coming this week against an Arkansas team that’s vastly improved.
The pick: Arkansas.
SMU +12 at Navy—After playing Tulsa closer than anyone in a 37-31 loss, and losing last week in the last minute to Houston, 44-38, playing Navy on the road has to be a tall order for a team that’s drained both physically and mentally. Only a back-door cover can slow down the Midshipmen in this spot.
The pick: Navy.
Bowling Green +7 at N. Illinois—Northern Illinois has quietly put together a nice resume this year. They’ve won four of their last five with the lone loss a 13-9 defeat at Tennessee. During that five-game span the Huskies D gave up a total of 36 points. After a fast start BG has lost 4 of 6, with inexplicable home losses to E. Mich. and Miami (Oh). Now with starting QB Chandler Harnish back in the saddle, N. Ill. should roll.
The pick: Northern Ill.
C. Michigan -3½ at Toledo—Central Michigan is getting better by the week, while Toledo seems to be falling apart. With QB Dan Lefevour sidelined, Brian Brunner took over and went 20-28 vs. foe Western Michigan for 346 yards and a TD. No problem.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Sunday
UCF + 23½ at Tulsa—This looks like a revenge game for Tulsa, who lost twice last year to UCF, including in the Conference USA title game. Last week, trailing 28-21 to a UTEP team fresh from three straight wins, Tulsa, buried them, 77-35. In fact in their four home games this year Tulsa has averaged 65 points. Don’t see how UCF can keep up, unless Tulsa lets down.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Thursday
Auburn +3½ at West Virginia—Auburn is one of the best road teams around. Under Tommy T. they’ve won 10 of their last 13 on the road outright. Tuberville has had 12 days to improve his offense since changing coordinators. West Virginia continues to disappoint, even in victory.
The pick: Auburn (best bet). WV hasn’t seen a defense this fast.
Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10
Second Thoughts
After a second straight week going 9 and 5 we’ve pulled 9 points ahead of the Mendoza Line. Last week it didn’t pay to follow the late money. Five of the six teams we listed that had late moves of one point or more, failed to cover.
Can’t see Boise losing to San Jose, and they should win by more than a TD…Alabama without Cody is an offense looking for direction. The defense is still solid and so is Tennessee’s, so look for a close, low-scoring game….Pitt should handle Rutgers, now that the Panthers have a ton of confidence….Oregon, despite a mediocre passing game, should still keep Arizona State safe….
Louisville had a nice comeback last week vs. Middle Tennessee, but this South Florida they’re playing which is 3-0 on the road this year…Look for Vandy and Duke to have a game over 70 unless weather plays a roll…Indiana, of all teams, is taking money vs. Northwestern…It looks like Virginia’s three-game winning streak might be in trouble at Georgia Tech this week... Colorado doesn’t have the people to either cover or put pressure on Missouri. Look for a blowout at Mizzu.
Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup
Twenty-four years ago I was part of a small, elite team that put the first Breeders’ Cup together. I worked closely with founder John Gaines and Hall of Fame trainer John Nerud to try and accomplish their goal of creating a year-end spectacular for their sport. They wanted to have the best horses in every category (dirt, grass, sprinters, distance, male, female) compete, and then rotate this great event at race tracks all over the world. Until this year, that his been the case.
What they didn’t have in mind was having some of the best dirt horses in the world avoiding the event because the so-called “dirt races” were being run on a synthetic surface that played like grass. They didn’t have in mind great trainers like Nick Zito staying back in New York and not sending a single horse to compete.
But that’s what this 25th edition of the Cup has come to at Santa Anita this year (and next). If Curlin doesn't win the Classic there will be a ton more staying home next year. For handicappers, picking horses on synthetic surfaces is like throwing darts. The Cup will experience a handle drop off, next year, if not this one too, because of the uncertainty of the surface. The message here is to go easy on races that are not run over the turf.
Marathon— Zappa, Delightful Kiss, Sixties Icon
Turf Sprint— Fleeting Spirit, Salute the Count, Diabolical
Dirt Mile—First Defense, Well Armed, Pyro
Mile—Goldikova (best bet), Whatsthescript,, Prescious Kitten
Juvenile—Square Eddie, Pioneer of the Nile, Munnings
Juvenile Turf—Bittle Road, Skipdate, Grand Adventure
Sprint—Midnight Lute, Fabulous Strike, Lewis Michael
Turf—Soldier of Fortune, Winchester, Eagle Mountain
Classic—Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator, Go Between, Curlin, Student Council, Duke of Marmalade
--30--
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Texas, Penn State, Oklahoma to Roll
The race is on and since there’s no playoff, Texas, Alabama, Penn State and Oklahoma will have to win and win big to keep their championship hopes alive. For Texas and Oklahoma it means forgetting about last week’s battle and focusing on their Big 12 opponents this week, Missouri and Kansas respectively.
Alabama better not look past Mississippi either. The Tide just has to look back a few weeks to see what Ole Miss did to a Florida team that took them for granted.
This week’s best bets: TCU, Texas, and Michigan State.
Saturday
Missouri +4 at Texas—Missouri’s defensive flaws were exposed by Ok. State which Texas is sure to take advantage of. Missouri has to be deflated after seeing its perfect season and hold on the Big 12 race go down the drain. And while Texas is also coming from an emotional situation, the Longhorns usually take care of business the week following Oklahoma, winning the last three years by an average of 34.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Mississippi +12 at Alabama—Both teams have had a week off to get ready but Alabama might overlook Ole Miss. And even though Mississippi looked past Vanderbilt, expect the Rebels to come just as prepared as they were at Florida. This game has gone down to the wire the last three years, with Tide winning all three by just a FG.
The pick: Mississippi.
Michigan +24 1/2 Penn State—I’ve never seen Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez this depressed. Losing to Toledo has to be depressing but at least he can point to this week’s game as a measuring rod. Too bad Paterno hates Michigan and loves to roll it up when given the chance. It doesn’t matter that Ohio State is next for the Lions.
The pick: Penn State.
Ohio State -3 1/2 at Michigan State—On the other hand, Ohio State is certainly looking ahead to next week’s game with Penn State in Columbus, which is a mistake, because Michigan State is a worthy foe and at it’s best right now. The Spartans domination of Notre Dame and at Northwestern (last week) was impressive. Also, the Buckeyes don’t exactly have the offense tuned up, collecting a measly 222 total yards against a Purdue team, not known for defense.
The pick: Michigan State (best bet).
Vanderbilt +15 at Georgia--Vandy has given Georgia fits the past two seasons. Two years ago with a record of 2-4 Vandy came to Athens and pulled off a 24-22 shocker. Last year Georgia needed a FG on the game's final play to avoid overtime. With Vandy still needing another win to become bowl eligible, the Commodores will come in confident, knowing they match up well with the Bulldogs.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Kansas +19 1/2 at Oklahoma—Instincts say #4 Sooners will bounce back and focus on chance to make BCS title game, which means winning impressively. Kansas had made to order defense for Oklahoma, if the Sooners can keep their heads in the game after tough loss at Red River. Betting that Stoopos can get them back on track.
The pick: Oklahoma. Game opened at 18.
LSU -2 at South Carolina—This is a perfect situation for the Gamecocks. LSU, which we were never impressed with this year, is coming off of a beating by rival Florida, and is sure to come to Columbia down and out. The Gamecocks, which feature a terrific defense, also have found a quarterback in Stephen Garcia, who led them on two scoring drives in the second half last week. Finally with a QB he can trust, Spurrier is much more dangerous.
The pick: South Carolina.
Georgia Tech -2 at Clemson—Maybe the firing of Tommy Bowden will clear the air at Clemson and allow the Tigers to get back to winning. Maybe new coach Dabo Swinney can get his team’s focus. However changing coaches on a week Clemson has to prepare for Georgia Tech’s tough defense and difficult triple option, doesn’t seem like a good idea. Goodbye focus.
Last week Tech looked awful with third-string QB Calvin Booker running their option. But both first and second team QBs, Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw, are back this week to run the attack, which will make it much more difficult to cover.
The pick: Georgia Tech. Game opened with Tech a 1½ point dog.
Virginia Tech +3 at Boston College—B.C. is coming into its own behind versatile QB Chris Crane. They are also a very tough team to beat at home, having disposed of every opponent but Florida State over the last three years. Tech has built a solid resume but lacks the explosiveness the Eagles can bring to the table.
The pick: Boston College. There’s no place like home.
North Carolina -4 1/2 at Virginia--Virginia has all of a sudden come together, with its defense being the strength of the team. The Cavs have upset both Maryland and East Carolina at home and now take on the Tar Heels without Brandon Tate, who has been the heart of the team. See another upset here.
The pick: Virginia.
UTEP + 18 at Tulsa—This has been a close game the last four years, with three of the contests decided by three points or less. While Tulsa's offense is one of the best around, its defense has been mediocre. The last two games Tulsa’s yielded nearly 500 yards each to Rice and SMU. UTEP, on the other hand, is hot, winning three straight over UCF, Southern Miss and Tulane.
The pick: UTEP. This could be a huge upset.
Colorado State +21½ at Utah—With the focus on BYU at TCU this week, Utah needs to remind everyone that they’re going to have to be dealt with too in the Mountain West. The Utes won’t have another chance to impress until they meet TCU in three weeks, so winning the easy ones big is a must. Also can’t see the Rams coming up with a big effort after leaving it all on the field in 13-7 loss to TCU.
The pick: Utah.
Middle Tennessee +14½ at Louisville—Middle Tennessee has been anywhere from respectable to brilliant this year, and always seems to be ready for the big games, upsetting Maryland and coming with a yard of doing the same at Kentucky. This week they face a Louisville team that gave up nearly 500 yards to Memphis last week, and hasn’t scared anyone with their attack to date.
The pick: Middle Tennessee. It means a lot more to them than to the Cardinals.
Thursday
BYU-1½ at TCU—If TCU can put pressure in Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, they can get to BYU’s Max Hall. BYU’s defense is pretty good in its own right, but the Horned Frog’s running attack will control the clock and the game. This is TCU’s season.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
Last Week: 9-5; Season: 51-46-1
Best Bets: 2-1; Season: 12-9
Second Thoughts
Got back on track last week going 9 and 5, although Texas pick was predicated on the Longhorn D and Colt McCoy playing well. Colt held up his end, at least.
Leaning toward N.C. State Thursday night at home vs. Florida State since the Wolfpack were very respectable at home vs. B.C., but can’t force a bet on a dog I don’t think can win the game. However, NC State has split the last six with FSU and only last year's loss was settled by more than 10.…Boise looking for revenge Friday against Hawaii, but 25 is a lot of wood against a team that can score….
Arizona blew one last week to Stanford and needs this game vs. Cal. The Bears aren’t nearly as effective on the road unless they’re playing Washington State…As improved as Duke has looked, they don’t have the athletes to match up with Miami…
Money Moves
Late money has poured in on the following teams: Duke (vs. Miami), Missouri (vs. Texas), Stanford (vs. UCLA), South Carolina (vs. LSU) , Troy (vs. FIU), and for the second week in a row Western Michigan (vs. Central Michigan).
Alabama better not look past Mississippi either. The Tide just has to look back a few weeks to see what Ole Miss did to a Florida team that took them for granted.
This week’s best bets: TCU, Texas, and Michigan State.
Saturday
Missouri +4 at Texas—Missouri’s defensive flaws were exposed by Ok. State which Texas is sure to take advantage of. Missouri has to be deflated after seeing its perfect season and hold on the Big 12 race go down the drain. And while Texas is also coming from an emotional situation, the Longhorns usually take care of business the week following Oklahoma, winning the last three years by an average of 34.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Mississippi +12 at Alabama—Both teams have had a week off to get ready but Alabama might overlook Ole Miss. And even though Mississippi looked past Vanderbilt, expect the Rebels to come just as prepared as they were at Florida. This game has gone down to the wire the last three years, with Tide winning all three by just a FG.
The pick: Mississippi.
Michigan +24 1/2 Penn State—I’ve never seen Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez this depressed. Losing to Toledo has to be depressing but at least he can point to this week’s game as a measuring rod. Too bad Paterno hates Michigan and loves to roll it up when given the chance. It doesn’t matter that Ohio State is next for the Lions.
The pick: Penn State.
Ohio State -3 1/2 at Michigan State—On the other hand, Ohio State is certainly looking ahead to next week’s game with Penn State in Columbus, which is a mistake, because Michigan State is a worthy foe and at it’s best right now. The Spartans domination of Notre Dame and at Northwestern (last week) was impressive. Also, the Buckeyes don’t exactly have the offense tuned up, collecting a measly 222 total yards against a Purdue team, not known for defense.
The pick: Michigan State (best bet).
Vanderbilt +15 at Georgia--Vandy has given Georgia fits the past two seasons. Two years ago with a record of 2-4 Vandy came to Athens and pulled off a 24-22 shocker. Last year Georgia needed a FG on the game's final play to avoid overtime. With Vandy still needing another win to become bowl eligible, the Commodores will come in confident, knowing they match up well with the Bulldogs.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Kansas +19 1/2 at Oklahoma—Instincts say #4 Sooners will bounce back and focus on chance to make BCS title game, which means winning impressively. Kansas had made to order defense for Oklahoma, if the Sooners can keep their heads in the game after tough loss at Red River. Betting that Stoopos can get them back on track.
The pick: Oklahoma. Game opened at 18.
LSU -2 at South Carolina—This is a perfect situation for the Gamecocks. LSU, which we were never impressed with this year, is coming off of a beating by rival Florida, and is sure to come to Columbia down and out. The Gamecocks, which feature a terrific defense, also have found a quarterback in Stephen Garcia, who led them on two scoring drives in the second half last week. Finally with a QB he can trust, Spurrier is much more dangerous.
The pick: South Carolina.
Georgia Tech -2 at Clemson—Maybe the firing of Tommy Bowden will clear the air at Clemson and allow the Tigers to get back to winning. Maybe new coach Dabo Swinney can get his team’s focus. However changing coaches on a week Clemson has to prepare for Georgia Tech’s tough defense and difficult triple option, doesn’t seem like a good idea. Goodbye focus.
Last week Tech looked awful with third-string QB Calvin Booker running their option. But both first and second team QBs, Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw, are back this week to run the attack, which will make it much more difficult to cover.
The pick: Georgia Tech. Game opened with Tech a 1½ point dog.
Virginia Tech +3 at Boston College—B.C. is coming into its own behind versatile QB Chris Crane. They are also a very tough team to beat at home, having disposed of every opponent but Florida State over the last three years. Tech has built a solid resume but lacks the explosiveness the Eagles can bring to the table.
The pick: Boston College. There’s no place like home.
North Carolina -4 1/2 at Virginia--Virginia has all of a sudden come together, with its defense being the strength of the team. The Cavs have upset both Maryland and East Carolina at home and now take on the Tar Heels without Brandon Tate, who has been the heart of the team. See another upset here.
The pick: Virginia.
UTEP + 18 at Tulsa—This has been a close game the last four years, with three of the contests decided by three points or less. While Tulsa's offense is one of the best around, its defense has been mediocre. The last two games Tulsa’s yielded nearly 500 yards each to Rice and SMU. UTEP, on the other hand, is hot, winning three straight over UCF, Southern Miss and Tulane.
The pick: UTEP. This could be a huge upset.
Colorado State +21½ at Utah—With the focus on BYU at TCU this week, Utah needs to remind everyone that they’re going to have to be dealt with too in the Mountain West. The Utes won’t have another chance to impress until they meet TCU in three weeks, so winning the easy ones big is a must. Also can’t see the Rams coming up with a big effort after leaving it all on the field in 13-7 loss to TCU.
The pick: Utah.
Middle Tennessee +14½ at Louisville—Middle Tennessee has been anywhere from respectable to brilliant this year, and always seems to be ready for the big games, upsetting Maryland and coming with a yard of doing the same at Kentucky. This week they face a Louisville team that gave up nearly 500 yards to Memphis last week, and hasn’t scared anyone with their attack to date.
The pick: Middle Tennessee. It means a lot more to them than to the Cardinals.
Thursday
BYU-1½ at TCU—If TCU can put pressure in Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, they can get to BYU’s Max Hall. BYU’s defense is pretty good in its own right, but the Horned Frog’s running attack will control the clock and the game. This is TCU’s season.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
Last Week: 9-5; Season: 51-46-1
Best Bets: 2-1; Season: 12-9
Second Thoughts
Got back on track last week going 9 and 5, although Texas pick was predicated on the Longhorn D and Colt McCoy playing well. Colt held up his end, at least.
Leaning toward N.C. State Thursday night at home vs. Florida State since the Wolfpack were very respectable at home vs. B.C., but can’t force a bet on a dog I don’t think can win the game. However, NC State has split the last six with FSU and only last year's loss was settled by more than 10.…Boise looking for revenge Friday against Hawaii, but 25 is a lot of wood against a team that can score….
Arizona blew one last week to Stanford and needs this game vs. Cal. The Bears aren’t nearly as effective on the road unless they’re playing Washington State…As improved as Duke has looked, they don’t have the athletes to match up with Miami…
Money Moves
Late money has poured in on the following teams: Duke (vs. Miami), Missouri (vs. Texas), Stanford (vs. UCLA), South Carolina (vs. LSU) , Troy (vs. FIU), and for the second week in a row Western Michigan (vs. Central Michigan).
Army on a two-game tear getting bundle at Buffalo. Cadets are perfecting that triple option offense which is getting tough to defend…. Stanford has become the best running team in the Pac 10 and might be too physical for UCLA…With extra time to prepare Pitt has a much better chance of figuring out Navy’s offense, which it failed to do last year.
Hard to imagine Texas Tech not having easy time scoring consistently against A&M, but have been burnt too many times laying this many on the road. Though double-didgit home dogs are no better than 50% this October.... Purdue has crushed Northwestern the last two years and has been impressive defensively the last weeks vs. Penn State and Ohio State, yielding just three offensive TDs total against the pair....Northern Ill. gets starting QB Chandler Harnish back vs. Toledo.
--30--
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
McCoy, Texas D to Pull Upset
This stands to be one of the better shootouts at the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. Only thing is, it might not be a shootout at all with both teams sporting two of the best defenses in the country. We look for Texas’ Colt McCoy to pull the game out after a defensive struggle. With No.1 in the nation at stake, expect a barnburner.
The other huge game has LSU at Florida and if things aren’t hard enough for teams going into the Swamp, an LSU lineman is bragging that they’ll take Tebow out if they can. The Gators don’t really need any more help.
This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, Army and Florida Int’l
Saturday
Texas +7 vs. Oklahoma—Last year’s 28-21 Oklahoma victory was the only one in the last six of this series to be as close as 7 points, meaning the chances that the spread comes into play are slim. Regardless, both teams have great defenses and great passing games. The Sooners seem to have the better running game, and that could be the difference. However, Oklahoma’s punting and punt coverage has been poor, which could cost them the game.
Both teams are win by huge scores and have top-five rated sack patrols. Oklahoma might have an edge for playing better competition in Cincinnati and TCU. This is a tough call but we’re going with Texas, which has a more versatile offense behind Colt McCoy.
The pick: Texas. Maybe the points will come into play, after all.
LSU +6 1/2 at Florida—LSU has far from impressed this year, and you can’t say they looked great beating offensively-challenged Auburn. Florida still lacks a credible running game but no one is cleverer than Urban Meyer figuring ways to get around that. And no one likes to cover more than Meyer, too.
The pick: Florida.
Penn State -6 at Wisconsin—Last week’s loss to Ohio State might not be as devastating to the Badgers’ Big Ten hopes as you think. A win here over Penn State puts them right back in the race. As for Ohio State, they still have to play Penn State and Michigan and travel to Illinois and Michigan State—a schedule that could easily provide two defeats.
Penn State has been tremendous both home and away, but with Michigan and the Buckeyes on tap after this, the Lions might not take Wisky that seriously. Which would be a mistake because Wisconsin won 16 straight at home before losing to Ohio State.
The pick: Wisconsin. Penn State has gotten destroyed its last two visits to Madison.
Tennessee +12 1/2 at Georgia—Going out on a limb here with Fullmer who usually comes through when his back is to the wall, and believe me Tennessee’s backs are rubbing up against it. The Vols, for all their woes, are still fifth in the nation in Total Defesne, and have thumped Georgia the last two years. Despite terrible offense and poor punting stats, going with Vols.
The pick: Tennessee.
Oklahoma State +14 at Missouri—It’s hard not to be impressed with Missouri. Last week the Tigers ended a 30-year hex by blowing out Nebraska at Lincoln. Considering how defenseless Nebraska looks this year, the only decent team the Tigers have faced is Illinois.
The Cowboys have played a schedule easier than Little League, and have dispatched them all, as expected. QB Zac Robinson is very effective and under the radar of most fans. Would be surprised if Ok. State doesn’t make a game of this, and with Mizzu looking ahead to Texas next week, an upset is possible.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Vanderbilt -2 1/2 at Mississippi State—Vanderbilt never had it so good. Ranked and getting games on TV right and left, the Commodores are undefeated and looking forward to a bowl game this year. But waiting at the toll gate is Mississippi State, fresh from a week off to prepare and with a defense that can pull off the upset.
The pick: Mississippi State.
Colorado +14 at Kansas—Can’t be more impressed with Kansas after coming back from 0-20 deficit to win at Iowa State last week. The Buffs have been blown out by Florida State and Texas the last two weeks and now travel to pass-happy Kansas. Good thing Dan Hawkins secured pact extension early. Could be another rough day for the Buffs.
The pick: Kansas.
South Carolina -3 at Kentucky—This game features two of the best defenses in college football. The Gamecocks are coming off of a nice upset at Mississippi, catching the Rebels while still in celebration mode after beating Florida. And S.C. has been consistently good on the road for Steve Spurrier.
Kentucky, though, holds a slight defensive advantage, and has a big edge in net punting, turnover margin and yards penalized. Added up, it’s the difference between winning and losing.
The pick: Kentucky.
Nebraska +21 at Texas Tech—Bo Pellini’s team was embarrassed last week and is sure to try its best in Lubbock Saturday. And maybe the Red Raiders will go easy figuring they don’t have to do much against a team this bad. But don’t count on it. Mike Leach loves to roll it up and the last time Nebraska came to Lubbock (’04) the Huskers got pasted 70-10. This game features a team that that attacks and scores from multiple formations vs. a team that can't tackle and can't cover the pass. This looks too easy.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet).
Iowa State +5 at Baylor—Can’t see Iowa State showing up with any effort this week after heartbreaking loss at home to Kansas seven days ago. And Baylor, even in defeat, still moved the ball against Oklahoma. Like the Bears’ chances against a team that's lost 13 straight on the road. The pick: Baylor. Line has shot up after opening at 3.
Tulsa -24 at SMU—Here’s a meaningless stat: Tulsa is last in the country in field goals because they’ve only attempted three all year (making two). Probably because they get a TD most possessions. The Golden Hurricane is 5-0, winning each game by 23 or more. SMU likes to throw the ball and will get its points, too. But with nation’s 111th ranked pass defense, can’t see SMU slowing down Tulsa’s 5th rated pass attack. But beware, line fell from 25 to 24.
The pick: Tulsa.
Eastern Michigan +1 at Army—Love Army’s chances now that season is turning for them. The Cadets ended a 10-game losing streak with a 44-13 win at Tulane last week, after nearly pulling off an upset at Texas A&M the week before. Eastern Mich is still celebrating its upset over Bowling Green last week, and cares a helluva lot more about beating Akron next week than it does about the Army. Perfect setup for the Cadets to make it two in a row.
The pick: Army (best bet).
Middle Tennessee +2 at Florida Int’l—Hard to find a more improved team than FIU these days. The Golden Panthers are coming off of two impressive road victories at Toledo (35-16) and North Texas (42-10).That was after staying close to South Florida in a 17-9 defeat. Middle Tennessee is probably still talking about its Hail Mary win over Florida Atlantic and looking forward to playing Louisville next week. Love FIU in this spot.
The pick: Florida International (best bet).
Thursday
Clemson +2½ at Wake Forest—Clemson’s smoked Wake each of the last two years and needs this one badly. After beating Mississippi and FSU, Wake players figured all they needed to do was show up to beat Navy. Wrong. I’m sure Jim Grobe has their attention again, but can they reverse the hold Clemson’s had on them? No. Also, Wake two-way kicker Swank is limited which might be the difference.
The pick: Clemson.
Season: 42-41-1; Last week: 6-8
Best Bets season: 10-8; Last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
It’s been a tough few weeks but we’re hanging in there above the Mendoza Line and expect to rebound starting with this week’s picks. Note: the first six games listed this week are games of national interest and are chosen with less conviction than the last eight.
This is Southern Miss’ season. Under new coach Larry Fedora (ex Ok. State off. coord.) the Golden Eagles have shown transition problems after 17 years under Jeff Bower. After losing at home to two middle of the road teams (Marshall and UTEP), it’s hard to believe the Golden Eagles can make a game of it against Boise. The Broncos might feel they can ease off the pedal here, but look again. They’ve got to win big every chance they have to stay up in the ratings. And Southern Miss is the biggest name they face until their final game against Fresno. With nothing but patsies left on their schedule, another impressive win here is a must.
You figure Iowa should beat Indiana but it could be a tough spot for the Hawkeyes after three mentally tough games in a row…North Carolina is flexing its muscles but might find Notre Dame’s new passing offense better than it thought….Michigan State has dropped from a 3-point fave at Northwestern probably because of all the pub the Wildcats are getting for being 5-0. But can’t see them staying with tournament-tested Spartans despite recent success.
--30--
The other huge game has LSU at Florida and if things aren’t hard enough for teams going into the Swamp, an LSU lineman is bragging that they’ll take Tebow out if they can. The Gators don’t really need any more help.
This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, Army and Florida Int’l
Saturday
Texas +7 vs. Oklahoma—Last year’s 28-21 Oklahoma victory was the only one in the last six of this series to be as close as 7 points, meaning the chances that the spread comes into play are slim. Regardless, both teams have great defenses and great passing games. The Sooners seem to have the better running game, and that could be the difference. However, Oklahoma’s punting and punt coverage has been poor, which could cost them the game.
Both teams are win by huge scores and have top-five rated sack patrols. Oklahoma might have an edge for playing better competition in Cincinnati and TCU. This is a tough call but we’re going with Texas, which has a more versatile offense behind Colt McCoy.
The pick: Texas. Maybe the points will come into play, after all.
LSU +6 1/2 at Florida—LSU has far from impressed this year, and you can’t say they looked great beating offensively-challenged Auburn. Florida still lacks a credible running game but no one is cleverer than Urban Meyer figuring ways to get around that. And no one likes to cover more than Meyer, too.
The pick: Florida.
Penn State -6 at Wisconsin—Last week’s loss to Ohio State might not be as devastating to the Badgers’ Big Ten hopes as you think. A win here over Penn State puts them right back in the race. As for Ohio State, they still have to play Penn State and Michigan and travel to Illinois and Michigan State—a schedule that could easily provide two defeats.
Penn State has been tremendous both home and away, but with Michigan and the Buckeyes on tap after this, the Lions might not take Wisky that seriously. Which would be a mistake because Wisconsin won 16 straight at home before losing to Ohio State.
The pick: Wisconsin. Penn State has gotten destroyed its last two visits to Madison.
Tennessee +12 1/2 at Georgia—Going out on a limb here with Fullmer who usually comes through when his back is to the wall, and believe me Tennessee’s backs are rubbing up against it. The Vols, for all their woes, are still fifth in the nation in Total Defesne, and have thumped Georgia the last two years. Despite terrible offense and poor punting stats, going with Vols.
The pick: Tennessee.
Oklahoma State +14 at Missouri—It’s hard not to be impressed with Missouri. Last week the Tigers ended a 30-year hex by blowing out Nebraska at Lincoln. Considering how defenseless Nebraska looks this year, the only decent team the Tigers have faced is Illinois.
The Cowboys have played a schedule easier than Little League, and have dispatched them all, as expected. QB Zac Robinson is very effective and under the radar of most fans. Would be surprised if Ok. State doesn’t make a game of this, and with Mizzu looking ahead to Texas next week, an upset is possible.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Vanderbilt -2 1/2 at Mississippi State—Vanderbilt never had it so good. Ranked and getting games on TV right and left, the Commodores are undefeated and looking forward to a bowl game this year. But waiting at the toll gate is Mississippi State, fresh from a week off to prepare and with a defense that can pull off the upset.
The pick: Mississippi State.
Colorado +14 at Kansas—Can’t be more impressed with Kansas after coming back from 0-20 deficit to win at Iowa State last week. The Buffs have been blown out by Florida State and Texas the last two weeks and now travel to pass-happy Kansas. Good thing Dan Hawkins secured pact extension early. Could be another rough day for the Buffs.
The pick: Kansas.
South Carolina -3 at Kentucky—This game features two of the best defenses in college football. The Gamecocks are coming off of a nice upset at Mississippi, catching the Rebels while still in celebration mode after beating Florida. And S.C. has been consistently good on the road for Steve Spurrier.
Kentucky, though, holds a slight defensive advantage, and has a big edge in net punting, turnover margin and yards penalized. Added up, it’s the difference between winning and losing.
The pick: Kentucky.
Nebraska +21 at Texas Tech—Bo Pellini’s team was embarrassed last week and is sure to try its best in Lubbock Saturday. And maybe the Red Raiders will go easy figuring they don’t have to do much against a team this bad. But don’t count on it. Mike Leach loves to roll it up and the last time Nebraska came to Lubbock (’04) the Huskers got pasted 70-10. This game features a team that that attacks and scores from multiple formations vs. a team that can't tackle and can't cover the pass. This looks too easy.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet).
Iowa State +5 at Baylor—Can’t see Iowa State showing up with any effort this week after heartbreaking loss at home to Kansas seven days ago. And Baylor, even in defeat, still moved the ball against Oklahoma. Like the Bears’ chances against a team that's lost 13 straight on the road. The pick: Baylor. Line has shot up after opening at 3.
Tulsa -24 at SMU—Here’s a meaningless stat: Tulsa is last in the country in field goals because they’ve only attempted three all year (making two). Probably because they get a TD most possessions. The Golden Hurricane is 5-0, winning each game by 23 or more. SMU likes to throw the ball and will get its points, too. But with nation’s 111th ranked pass defense, can’t see SMU slowing down Tulsa’s 5th rated pass attack. But beware, line fell from 25 to 24.
The pick: Tulsa.
Eastern Michigan +1 at Army—Love Army’s chances now that season is turning for them. The Cadets ended a 10-game losing streak with a 44-13 win at Tulane last week, after nearly pulling off an upset at Texas A&M the week before. Eastern Mich is still celebrating its upset over Bowling Green last week, and cares a helluva lot more about beating Akron next week than it does about the Army. Perfect setup for the Cadets to make it two in a row.
The pick: Army (best bet).
Middle Tennessee +2 at Florida Int’l—Hard to find a more improved team than FIU these days. The Golden Panthers are coming off of two impressive road victories at Toledo (35-16) and North Texas (42-10).That was after staying close to South Florida in a 17-9 defeat. Middle Tennessee is probably still talking about its Hail Mary win over Florida Atlantic and looking forward to playing Louisville next week. Love FIU in this spot.
The pick: Florida International (best bet).
Thursday
Clemson +2½ at Wake Forest—Clemson’s smoked Wake each of the last two years and needs this one badly. After beating Mississippi and FSU, Wake players figured all they needed to do was show up to beat Navy. Wrong. I’m sure Jim Grobe has their attention again, but can they reverse the hold Clemson’s had on them? No. Also, Wake two-way kicker Swank is limited which might be the difference.
The pick: Clemson.
Season: 42-41-1; Last week: 6-8
Best Bets season: 10-8; Last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
It’s been a tough few weeks but we’re hanging in there above the Mendoza Line and expect to rebound starting with this week’s picks. Note: the first six games listed this week are games of national interest and are chosen with less conviction than the last eight.
This is Southern Miss’ season. Under new coach Larry Fedora (ex Ok. State off. coord.) the Golden Eagles have shown transition problems after 17 years under Jeff Bower. After losing at home to two middle of the road teams (Marshall and UTEP), it’s hard to believe the Golden Eagles can make a game of it against Boise. The Broncos might feel they can ease off the pedal here, but look again. They’ve got to win big every chance they have to stay up in the ratings. And Southern Miss is the biggest name they face until their final game against Fresno. With nothing but patsies left on their schedule, another impressive win here is a must.
You figure Iowa should beat Indiana but it could be a tough spot for the Hawkeyes after three mentally tough games in a row…North Carolina is flexing its muscles but might find Notre Dame’s new passing offense better than it thought….Michigan State has dropped from a 3-point fave at Northwestern probably because of all the pub the Wildcats are getting for being 5-0. But can’t see them staying with tournament-tested Spartans despite recent success.
--30--
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Buckeyes to Get Rude Reception
Two big conference battles Saturday: Ohio State will try to break Wisconsin's 16-game home winning streak, and Auburn travels to Vanderbilt with the SEC lead at stake.
For teams like Texas and Penn State, the pressure is there to win on the road in conference and to do it with some extra mustard. Both have a chance to face either Oklahoma or Alabama in the BCS title game if they can keep on winning with authority. Be careful. Laying double digits on the road against legitimate conference foes (like Penn State and Texas have this week) can be dangerous.
This week’s best stats:
(1)Wisconsin, a slight home dog to Ohio State, has won 27 of its last 28 home games.
(2) Missouri, a 10-point favorite, has lost its last 15 visits to Nebraska.
Best Bets to date: 9-6; Last Week: 1-2
This week’s Best Bets: Kansas State, Arizona and Wisconsin
Saturday
Auburn -4 at Vanderbilt--Vandy's never been in this situation, but they've had had two weeks to prepare for this, their biggest game in years. Auburn's coming off three straight mentally and physically exhausting games: their 3-2 dogfight at Miss. State, their last second loss to LSU and last week's 14-12 battle with Tennessee. Can't see the Tigers matching the fire and effort Vandy will have in this one.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Texas Tech -7 at Kansas State—If you throw out games against Big 12 patsies SMU, Baylor and Rice, the Red Raiders have lost six outright and won a pair of close games. Besides those they lost at TCU and nearly lost at UTEP. Ron Prince is feeling the heat K-State, after nearly blowing last week’s game to La. Laff. But we suspect he’s been preparing an ambush for the Red Raiders all along. They’ll need to pull it off without top DB Gary Chandler, who is suspended. Chandler was arrested for driving without a valid license. Mayb he just didn’t want to face the Tech passing game.
The pick: Kansas State (best bet).
Ohio State -1 1/2 at Wisconsin—With Beanie back, so are the Buckeyes. But before you rush to the bank, consider that the Buckeyes are not murdering opponents yet and they do have a freshman QB going into Camp Randall for the first time. Wisconsin’s reeling from last week’s give away at Michigan, but the Badgers always get re-energized at home. In over the last four years they’ve won 27 of their last 28, losing only to Iowa in 2005.
The pick: Wisconsin (best bet).
Oregon +16 at USC—The Trojans have an amazing record of covering at home, but they rarely host a team that has the ability to keep pace with them, like this Oregon team can. Now, with the probability that Justin Roper is back at QB for the Ducks, this could be a lot closer than the experts think.
The pick: Oregon.
Missouri -10 at Nebraska—Can only think of one instance in the last five years when ‘Huskers were a double digit dog at home, and that was in loss to USC early last season.
This team is obviously a lot better defensively than that one. You can bet coach Pellini will have them ready for Mizzu team that might be starting to believe their headlines too soon.
The pick: Nebraska. Missouri has lost its last 15 trips into Lincoln.
Texas -12 at Colorado—Texas usually beats up the little guys on the road and plays the bigger guys close. This Texas team is coming around fast for Mack Brown, but they might be caught taking Colorado for granted this week. The Buffs are better than they looked at FSU and Texas hasn’t been challenged yet.
The pick: Colorado.
Kansas -11 at Iowa State—Despite last-second loss at South Florida, Kansas remains one of the most potent teams today. Week off gave Jayhawks chance to get healthy and QB Todd Reesing should be able to throw for 400 yards plus against the Cyclone secondary. Iowa State usually plays hard a couple times a year. This won’t be one of them.
The pick: Kansas.
Washington +23 at Arizona—With Jake Locker out Washington is short and its slow. Arizona has all of a sudden been revitalized and certainly has the kind of offense to make this one a laugher. If they can keep their eye on the ball.
The pick: Arizona (best bet).
Texas A&M +25 1/2 at Oklahoma State—The Aggies nearly lost to one of the worst teams in college football last week. And they were at home. Maybe they took Army for granted, or maybe they’re just awful. We vote for the latter, and on the road against a team that loves to run, this could be a ridiculous score.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Navy +5 at Air Force—Navy’s on a roll after shocking Wake Forest and unless they’re still partying after that victory, his one should be close again. The Midshipmen have won their last four against the Falcons including their last two visits West. This one is a toss up at best.
The pick: Navy.
San Diego State +24 1/2 at TCU—We think San Digeo State is going to play more like the team that almost upset Notre Dame than the team that lost at San Jose State. TCU had its lunch handed to them last week by Oklahoma and might still be in a bit of a daze. Regardless, the Aztecs have a helluva shot here.
The pick: San Diego State.
Season: 36-33; Last Week: 3-11
Second Thoughts
Want to thank the reader last week who caught our error in Houston’s schedule. Wish he had gone further and convinced us to take the Cougars. It was a tough week for nearly everyone.
The last time Tulsa lost a conference game at home was two years ago in a 41-38 shootout to Rice. This could be a repeat….Both Miami and FSU need this game badly. FSU’s better defense should prevail…
Penn State may be catching Purdue at the right time while the Boilermakers are recovering from the beating they took at South Bend last week…Rutgers will have a difficult time staying with West Virginia, a much faster team…
Alabama may decide to take the week off as they did after their first big win at Clemson, and Kentucky’s stingy defense may make easy for them to do so….Expect Cal to bury Arizona State no matter who starts at QB….
Money poured in on Duke overnight Wednesday knocking the line from 14 down to 12 ½ against Georgia Tech. Makes some sense since Duke has experience defending the option.
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For teams like Texas and Penn State, the pressure is there to win on the road in conference and to do it with some extra mustard. Both have a chance to face either Oklahoma or Alabama in the BCS title game if they can keep on winning with authority. Be careful. Laying double digits on the road against legitimate conference foes (like Penn State and Texas have this week) can be dangerous.
This week’s best stats:
(1)Wisconsin, a slight home dog to Ohio State, has won 27 of its last 28 home games.
(2) Missouri, a 10-point favorite, has lost its last 15 visits to Nebraska.
Best Bets to date: 9-6; Last Week: 1-2
This week’s Best Bets: Kansas State, Arizona and Wisconsin
Saturday
Auburn -4 at Vanderbilt--Vandy's never been in this situation, but they've had had two weeks to prepare for this, their biggest game in years. Auburn's coming off three straight mentally and physically exhausting games: their 3-2 dogfight at Miss. State, their last second loss to LSU and last week's 14-12 battle with Tennessee. Can't see the Tigers matching the fire and effort Vandy will have in this one.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Texas Tech -7 at Kansas State—If you throw out games against Big 12 patsies SMU, Baylor and Rice, the Red Raiders have lost six outright and won a pair of close games. Besides those they lost at TCU and nearly lost at UTEP. Ron Prince is feeling the heat K-State, after nearly blowing last week’s game to La. Laff. But we suspect he’s been preparing an ambush for the Red Raiders all along. They’ll need to pull it off without top DB Gary Chandler, who is suspended. Chandler was arrested for driving without a valid license. Mayb he just didn’t want to face the Tech passing game.
The pick: Kansas State (best bet).
Ohio State -1 1/2 at Wisconsin—With Beanie back, so are the Buckeyes. But before you rush to the bank, consider that the Buckeyes are not murdering opponents yet and they do have a freshman QB going into Camp Randall for the first time. Wisconsin’s reeling from last week’s give away at Michigan, but the Badgers always get re-energized at home. In over the last four years they’ve won 27 of their last 28, losing only to Iowa in 2005.
The pick: Wisconsin (best bet).
Oregon +16 at USC—The Trojans have an amazing record of covering at home, but they rarely host a team that has the ability to keep pace with them, like this Oregon team can. Now, with the probability that Justin Roper is back at QB for the Ducks, this could be a lot closer than the experts think.
The pick: Oregon.
Missouri -10 at Nebraska—Can only think of one instance in the last five years when ‘Huskers were a double digit dog at home, and that was in loss to USC early last season.
This team is obviously a lot better defensively than that one. You can bet coach Pellini will have them ready for Mizzu team that might be starting to believe their headlines too soon.
The pick: Nebraska. Missouri has lost its last 15 trips into Lincoln.
Texas -12 at Colorado—Texas usually beats up the little guys on the road and plays the bigger guys close. This Texas team is coming around fast for Mack Brown, but they might be caught taking Colorado for granted this week. The Buffs are better than they looked at FSU and Texas hasn’t been challenged yet.
The pick: Colorado.
Kansas -11 at Iowa State—Despite last-second loss at South Florida, Kansas remains one of the most potent teams today. Week off gave Jayhawks chance to get healthy and QB Todd Reesing should be able to throw for 400 yards plus against the Cyclone secondary. Iowa State usually plays hard a couple times a year. This won’t be one of them.
The pick: Kansas.
Washington +23 at Arizona—With Jake Locker out Washington is short and its slow. Arizona has all of a sudden been revitalized and certainly has the kind of offense to make this one a laugher. If they can keep their eye on the ball.
The pick: Arizona (best bet).
Texas A&M +25 1/2 at Oklahoma State—The Aggies nearly lost to one of the worst teams in college football last week. And they were at home. Maybe they took Army for granted, or maybe they’re just awful. We vote for the latter, and on the road against a team that loves to run, this could be a ridiculous score.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Navy +5 at Air Force—Navy’s on a roll after shocking Wake Forest and unless they’re still partying after that victory, his one should be close again. The Midshipmen have won their last four against the Falcons including their last two visits West. This one is a toss up at best.
The pick: Navy.
San Diego State +24 1/2 at TCU—We think San Digeo State is going to play more like the team that almost upset Notre Dame than the team that lost at San Jose State. TCU had its lunch handed to them last week by Oklahoma and might still be in a bit of a daze. Regardless, the Aztecs have a helluva shot here.
The pick: San Diego State.
Season: 36-33; Last Week: 3-11
Second Thoughts
Want to thank the reader last week who caught our error in Houston’s schedule. Wish he had gone further and convinced us to take the Cougars. It was a tough week for nearly everyone.
The last time Tulsa lost a conference game at home was two years ago in a 41-38 shootout to Rice. This could be a repeat….Both Miami and FSU need this game badly. FSU’s better defense should prevail…
Penn State may be catching Purdue at the right time while the Boilermakers are recovering from the beating they took at South Bend last week…Rutgers will have a difficult time staying with West Virginia, a much faster team…
Alabama may decide to take the week off as they did after their first big win at Clemson, and Kentucky’s stingy defense may make easy for them to do so….Expect Cal to bury Arizona State no matter who starts at QB….
Money poured in on Duke overnight Wednesday knocking the line from 14 down to 12 ½ against Georgia Tech. Makes some sense since Duke has experience defending the option.
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