Take the Cardinals + 7

Super Bowls are like Kentucky Derbies or the stock market. People get very emotional about their picks and tend to over value the favorites and under value the dogs.

When a stock gets hot the market usually runs it up way ahead of what the fair price should be. That's how we're looking at this game. Because of their name, the Steelers are overpriced. They probably should be a 3-point favorite, especially with Heinz Ward iffy. Coming off an MCL, Ward might play, but he probably won't be able to cut, which reduces his role down to being a decoy.

Look For the Special Spread Props

Here's an interesting play: Instead of taking the points, give them with the Cardinals. If they win there's a good chance it will be by at least a TD. Many places are offering a special spread prop: Arizona plus 7-1 giving 7 1/2 points.

That's our pick: Arizona plus the odds.





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