Your Derby Winner: I Want Revenge; One to Avoid: Pioneer of the Nile

Nobody loves a longshot in the Derby more than me. Derby Day is a day for handicappers to make their score because it’s a lot easier to bet against the public than the pros. The public only bets on the races a couple of times a year, and this is one of them.

Because the public overbets the favorites and ignores live underdogs there are some wonderful prices to be had. And as much as I love a good longshot in the Derby I can’t ignore this year’s favorite, I Want Revenge. ‘Revenge’ reminds me of Bobby Frankel’s superhorse a few years ago, Empire Maker. They both won the Wood Memorial so easily you couldn’t imagine how they could ever lose again.

‘Revenge’ has tactical speed and proved he can spot the field seven lengths and still win for fun. In California, when he was just learning the game, he lost twice to Bob Baffert’s Pioneer of the Nile, while looking more impressive both times in defeat. But those races were on synthetic surfaces, not good old fashioned Kentucky dirt. Baffert is scared to death to find out how PON will run on dirt, which is why he kept him on the fake stuff for his final prep.

The great Bill Mott had PON last year and raced him on grass twice and synthetic twice. If Mott thought he would do well on dirt he could have run him on it at Saratoga, but chose the grass instead. So, to me, Pioneer of the Nile is the phony of this crowd. He’ll be second or third choice in the 20 horse field, and you can throw him out of making the exacta.

Mott, though, has a horse in Hold Me Back, who could be the longshot we’re all looking for. Mott has never won the Derby and has only started one other horse in it. It’s a clear signal he thinks this one has a big shot. HMB had one uneventful try on dirt, running out of the money after being four-wide the entire trip. He took time off and Mott brought him back to win the Lanes End in spectacular fashion and then took second in the Blue Grass. He’ll be at least 15-1.

Two others who will be flying at the end will be Chocolate Candy and General Quarters. Chocolate Candy was very impressive closing for second in the Santa Anita derby after having a wide trip while fighting a slow early pace. He’s coming to form perfectly. GQ has been sharp, showing two wins and two seconds in his last five races—all stakes. They’ll both be double digits and both are working well this week. Use them in your boxes.

Godolphin is back with two good horses they bought here last summer and trained all winter in Dubai. They are Regal Ransom, sure to be near the lead, and Desert Party. For a change they look like a contenders and the sheik has won just about every other major race in the world, so why not this one?

To me the big mystery horses are Dunkirk and Friesan Fire. Dunkirk has only had three starts and that’s not a suggested way to beat 19 others at 10 furlongs the first Saturday of May. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, a great trainer, who’s never won this race. Pletcher is starting a couple others with no chance and it feels like he’s rushing Dunkirk into this spot. Maybe he’s just throwing stuff against the wall, hoping something will stick.

Friesan Fire had either a great or terrible workout earlier in the week, going five furlongs in :57 4/5. Great because the time was so fast. Terrible because he was exhausted at the finish and had nothing left. But he is trained by Larry Jones, who had the second place Derby finishers the last two years, and that’s how he likes to train. FF has won three straight but has been off for seven weeks, which could explain why he was so tired after his work.

So here’s the bet: use I Want Revenge for first, with Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy and General Quarters for second and third, with Desert Party, Regal Ransom, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire and West Side Bernie for third only. For a $1 trifecta part-wheel it will cost $24.If you can afford it, play I Want Revenge in the second spot, with the three originally picked for second on top for another $24. If it hits dinner is on you.

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