After last night's Toledo pick, Podolsky's Picks is now 11-4 year to date and rolling. For details on today's picks go to www.Podolskys Picks.com where we discuss the Ohio State game against USC and Notre Dame against Michigan.
Other picks today include Oregon, Boise State, Kansas and Satnford.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Ducks Can't Swim on Blue Turf
Our picks are back. For all the details of our first best bet of the year, Boise State over Oregon, and the rest of this week's games, go to:
www.podolskyspicks.com
www.podolskyspicks.com
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Get Rich's Football Picks at www.PodolskysPicks.com
Beginning in August Rich Podolsky will be posting his football picks and his opinionated columns at:
www.PodolskysPicks.com.
Don't miss it. The last two years Rich was on fire during the first three weeks of the college football season.
And you can catch his fash resports at: twitter.com/podolskyspicks
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www.PodolskysPicks.com.
Don't miss it. The last two years Rich was on fire during the first three weeks of the college football season.
And you can catch his fash resports at: twitter.com/podolskyspicks
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Friday, June 5, 2009
And the Belmont Winner Is.....
Even though the Belmont is the longest of the Triple Crown races, it is rarely won by a horse coming from the clouds. The last Belmont winner to do so was Lemon Drop Kid 10 years ago, and he still reached the leaders by the top of the stretch.
Lemon Drop Kid, by the way, was the name of one of Bob Hope's most famous films. Hope played the title character, who was a lovable race track tout, and had a habit of popping lemon drops whenever he got nervous.
I bring up Lemon Drop Kid because his son, Charitable Man, is my choice to win this year's Belmont. The shape of the race makes it easy to tab Charitable Man. He's the only quality horse in the field who has enough early speed to stay close to the pace. Add the fact that his trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, is very, very confident the horse is ready for a giant race.
Most of the other so-called contender all like to come from behind: Chocolate Candy, Mine That Bird, Dunkirk and Summer Bird. Of those four I think Chocolate Candy has the best chance to upset Chaitable Man. Chocolate Candy rand a huge race against the grain to be second in the Santa Anita Derby. he followed that up with a fifth in the Kentucky derby despit getting bumped early and racing wide when the rail was the place to be. Instead of trying the Preakness, his trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer brought him to Belmont where he's been training smoothly the past five weeks.
Min That Bird is a likely candidate for the third spot, but my trifecta ticket will also have Miner's escape and Summer Bird on it in the third position. Miner's Escape is the likely front runner. Trained by Nick Zito, who pulled off last year's 55-1 front-running surprise Da Tara, Miner's escape is capable of hitting the board after his recent rapid improvement.
Summer Bird ran sixth in the Derby although he had several excuses. He's got the look of a horse who can hit the Bird at a much more generous price than Dunkirk, who was 4-1 in the Derby and never ran a step after getting banged around early.
So here's my Superfecta ticket:
Using for first: Charitable Man
Using second: Chocolate Candy, Miner's Escape, Mine That Bird.
Using third: previous three plus Summer Bird and Dunkirk
Using fourth: all but Luv Gov.
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Lemon Drop Kid, by the way, was the name of one of Bob Hope's most famous films. Hope played the title character, who was a lovable race track tout, and had a habit of popping lemon drops whenever he got nervous.
I bring up Lemon Drop Kid because his son, Charitable Man, is my choice to win this year's Belmont. The shape of the race makes it easy to tab Charitable Man. He's the only quality horse in the field who has enough early speed to stay close to the pace. Add the fact that his trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, is very, very confident the horse is ready for a giant race.
Most of the other so-called contender all like to come from behind: Chocolate Candy, Mine That Bird, Dunkirk and Summer Bird. Of those four I think Chocolate Candy has the best chance to upset Chaitable Man. Chocolate Candy rand a huge race against the grain to be second in the Santa Anita Derby. he followed that up with a fifth in the Kentucky derby despit getting bumped early and racing wide when the rail was the place to be. Instead of trying the Preakness, his trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer brought him to Belmont where he's been training smoothly the past five weeks.
Min That Bird is a likely candidate for the third spot, but my trifecta ticket will also have Miner's escape and Summer Bird on it in the third position. Miner's Escape is the likely front runner. Trained by Nick Zito, who pulled off last year's 55-1 front-running surprise Da Tara, Miner's escape is capable of hitting the board after his recent rapid improvement.
Summer Bird ran sixth in the Derby although he had several excuses. He's got the look of a horse who can hit the Bird at a much more generous price than Dunkirk, who was 4-1 in the Derby and never ran a step after getting banged around early.
So here's my Superfecta ticket:
Using for first: Charitable Man
Using second: Chocolate Candy, Miner's Escape, Mine That Bird.
Using third: previous three plus Summer Bird and Dunkirk
Using fourth: all but Luv Gov.
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Sunday, May 31, 2009
Jackson's Next Move: Change Filly's Name to Rachel Jackson
Okay, I was wrong. I said that if Rachel Alexandra could stand up, owner Jess Jackson would enter her in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.
Reluctantly, Jackson finally caved to pressure from his trainer, the media and scores of industry experts who said running the filly a fifth time in nine weeks was suicide. But Jackson did not go down easily.
He did not surrender the day after the Preakness when jockey Calvin Borel said the poor filly was “exhausted.” He did not surrender when she worked a slow half mile a week later. And he did not even surrender when it was obvious that Borel needed his release to ride Mine That Bird in the Belmont.
You see, every day Jackson made us wait was another day he got his name in the papers and another way to promote his Kendall-Jackson wines. Finally on Friday, kicking and screaming, Jackson said he’d give Rachel some time off.
Make no mistake; Jackson bought Rachel a few weeks ago so he could get his name in the press. So don’t be surprised if Jackson has another promotional idea brewing. By the end of the summer he could change her name from Rachel Alexandra to Rachel Jackson. He could start a new line of white wines, call them Rachel Jacksons, and put her likeness on every bottle.
Or he could stay away from the writers and the microphones and let a great filly complete a great career. But I’m afraid that would be asking too much.
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Reluctantly, Jackson finally caved to pressure from his trainer, the media and scores of industry experts who said running the filly a fifth time in nine weeks was suicide. But Jackson did not go down easily.
He did not surrender the day after the Preakness when jockey Calvin Borel said the poor filly was “exhausted.” He did not surrender when she worked a slow half mile a week later. And he did not even surrender when it was obvious that Borel needed his release to ride Mine That Bird in the Belmont.
You see, every day Jackson made us wait was another day he got his name in the papers and another way to promote his Kendall-Jackson wines. Finally on Friday, kicking and screaming, Jackson said he’d give Rachel some time off.
Make no mistake; Jackson bought Rachel a few weeks ago so he could get his name in the press. So don’t be surprised if Jackson has another promotional idea brewing. By the end of the summer he could change her name from Rachel Alexandra to Rachel Jackson. He could start a new line of white wines, call them Rachel Jacksons, and put her likeness on every bottle.
Or he could stay away from the writers and the microphones and let a great filly complete a great career. But I’m afraid that would be asking too much.
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Sunday, May 17, 2009
It's Crazy to Run Rachel in Belmont
Jess Jackson, I assume, is an egomaniac. He slapped his name on his wines (Kendall-Jackson), and it appears he's not happy out of the limelight in rcaing, now that his champion Curlin is retired.
So he bought Rachel Alexandra for a bundle and ran her on just two weeks rest in the Preakness and beat the boys. Now they're getting her set to run again in just three weeks in the most grueling race of all, the mile and a half Belmont Stakes.
The problem is: she's "exhausted," according to what jockey Calvin Borel said Sunday morning after the Preakness. She was definitely tiring at the end of the race which could be the result of her lack of rest between races.
These days trainers rarely run a horse with less than a month between races, if not more. If she runs in the Belmont on June 6th, it will be her fifth race in nine weeks, or an average of one every 13 days. That's too much for just about any horse to survive.
And it's unlikely nobody is going to challenge her in the Belmont. Fresh shooters will be coming out of the weeds to take her on. Remember Smarty Jones? He lost to Nick Zito's Birdstone costing Smarty the Triple Crown. Winning jockey Edgar Prado was almost apologetic for his winning ride?
After her performance in the Preakness Rachel Alexandra is crying out for a break. But I don't expect Jackson to give her one. He needs to have his name in the papers. If she can stand up, she'll be entered.
So don't be shocked if America gets its heart broken again.
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So he bought Rachel Alexandra for a bundle and ran her on just two weeks rest in the Preakness and beat the boys. Now they're getting her set to run again in just three weeks in the most grueling race of all, the mile and a half Belmont Stakes.
The problem is: she's "exhausted," according to what jockey Calvin Borel said Sunday morning after the Preakness. She was definitely tiring at the end of the race which could be the result of her lack of rest between races.
These days trainers rarely run a horse with less than a month between races, if not more. If she runs in the Belmont on June 6th, it will be her fifth race in nine weeks, or an average of one every 13 days. That's too much for just about any horse to survive.
And it's unlikely nobody is going to challenge her in the Belmont. Fresh shooters will be coming out of the weeds to take her on. Remember Smarty Jones? He lost to Nick Zito's Birdstone costing Smarty the Triple Crown. Winning jockey Edgar Prado was almost apologetic for his winning ride?
After her performance in the Preakness Rachel Alexandra is crying out for a break. But I don't expect Jackson to give her one. He needs to have his name in the papers. If she can stand up, she'll be entered.
So don't be shocked if America gets its heart broken again.
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Friday, May 15, 2009
How to Clean Up at the Preakness
Here's the Preakness play:
Not being greedy, I'm going to reverse the horses with the two highest Beyer (speed figures) in their last race. Both Big Drama (post 1) and Rachel Alexandra (post 13) posted a 108 Beyer and neither got that number by surprise.
Rachel's been notching 100 plus Beyers regularly. If she loses it will be because she's coming off of just two weeks rest or because she was bounced wide, losing valuable lengths, by her post.
Big Drama has had seven weeks to recover from his 108 and I don't expect him to drop much off of that. And although he has the one hole, he doesn't need the lead. He's shown a great ability to rate near the lead, then pounce.
These are the two fastest horses in the race. They should finish one-two and produce the minimum of a $40 exacta. With Big Drama finishing first it could pay as much as $60. No need to fool around with tris and supers.
The bet: $20 exacta box: #1 Big Drama and #13 Rachel Alexandra. ($40 wager).
Save bet: $2 exactas using #1 and #13 on top, with #2, #3, #8 and #11 for second (Mine That Bird, Musket Man, General Quarters and Take the Points). ($16 wager).
For those who need to bet the trifecta, use #1 and #13 both first and second and first and third with #2, #3, #8 and #11 for both third and second as the case may be. A $1 tri part-wheel would cost $16 using #1 and #13 both ways.
Good luck and pray for a fast track.
Not being greedy, I'm going to reverse the horses with the two highest Beyer (speed figures) in their last race. Both Big Drama (post 1) and Rachel Alexandra (post 13) posted a 108 Beyer and neither got that number by surprise.
Rachel's been notching 100 plus Beyers regularly. If she loses it will be because she's coming off of just two weeks rest or because she was bounced wide, losing valuable lengths, by her post.
Big Drama has had seven weeks to recover from his 108 and I don't expect him to drop much off of that. And although he has the one hole, he doesn't need the lead. He's shown a great ability to rate near the lead, then pounce.
These are the two fastest horses in the race. They should finish one-two and produce the minimum of a $40 exacta. With Big Drama finishing first it could pay as much as $60. No need to fool around with tris and supers.
The bet: $20 exacta box: #1 Big Drama and #13 Rachel Alexandra. ($40 wager).
Save bet: $2 exactas using #1 and #13 on top, with #2, #3, #8 and #11 for second (Mine That Bird, Musket Man, General Quarters and Take the Points). ($16 wager).
For those who need to bet the trifecta, use #1 and #13 both first and second and first and third with #2, #3, #8 and #11 for both third and second as the case may be. A $1 tri part-wheel would cost $16 using #1 and #13 both ways.
Good luck and pray for a fast track.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
13 Post Could Spell Doom for Preakness Super Filly Rachel
When Jess Jackson bought super filly Rachel Alexandra for $4 million last week, I immediately thought of that classic scene from “The Godfather.” You know the one where movie mogul Jack Woltz wakes up with a bloody horse’s head in his bed and lets out a terrifying scream.
If you recall, Woltz wouldn’t give the Godfather’s nephew, Johnny Fontane, a role he was perfect for. No amount of money could sway him. There was only one thing Woltz cared about and that was a colt that came from perfect breeding. So perfect in fact that Woltz wasn’t even going to race him. He was sending the colt straight to stud.
When the colt’s head wound up under the sheets the next morning, Fontane suddenly got the part. Which brings us back to Jess Jackson.
When Jackson bought Rachel he announced he wanted to breed her to his champion, Curlin. And after she won the Kentucky Oaks by an astounding 20 lengths, (with a higher speed figure, 108, than the Derby winner’s) Jackson figured Rachel could win the Preakness and the Belmont and he then he could send her off to make the fastest race horse that ever lived.
A funny thing might happen along the way. She drew the 13 post. The lady drew the far outside which puts her at a distinct disadvantage going into Pimlico’s short first turn. Sure her connections are saying how happy they are with the post; that she’s out there where she can’t be bothered or intimidated. She’s also out there where no horse has ever won a Preakness, at post 13. This will be no easy chore.
And there is the possibility she will be intimidated by some of the boys, regardless. Sure Rags to Riches won the Belmont two years ago, and Winning Colors won the Derby a few decades ago, but that’s about it. The girls don’t usually take the boys on this early in their careers and when they do the results aren’t very good.
So when you consider that Rachel is going to be a 3-2 favorite and that juicy odds will be had for just about anyone else you like, it’s hard to get that excited about betting a filly being asked to do something she’s never done before.
Who could beat? There’s a line of 12 others who signed up for the chance. Among those are two that appear to have the best chance. Big Drama, leaving from post 1, and Derby winner Mine That Bird, in post 2. ‘Drama,’ who did not run in the Derby, has won five straight and set a track record at Gulfstream in his last. He’ll be near the lead the entire race and could easily win it at 10-1.
The ‘Bird’ looks like he’s improving with every race and should benefit from another race on a dirt track. He also could be a lot closer than most think, as he’s shown an ability to challenge from close up or far back. Another to watch for is 30-1 longshot Take the Points, who has won twice on dirt and has his best speed figure on dirt. He’s also working up to this race in grand form.
As for Derby runner-ups, Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem, Freisan Fire and Musket Man, they all look tired from difficult campaigns leading up to the Derby, and they may all go back some. Of the four, Musket Man appears to have the best shot to hit the board.
Then again, Rachel might be a super filly after all.
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If you recall, Woltz wouldn’t give the Godfather’s nephew, Johnny Fontane, a role he was perfect for. No amount of money could sway him. There was only one thing Woltz cared about and that was a colt that came from perfect breeding. So perfect in fact that Woltz wasn’t even going to race him. He was sending the colt straight to stud.
When the colt’s head wound up under the sheets the next morning, Fontane suddenly got the part. Which brings us back to Jess Jackson.
When Jackson bought Rachel he announced he wanted to breed her to his champion, Curlin. And after she won the Kentucky Oaks by an astounding 20 lengths, (with a higher speed figure, 108, than the Derby winner’s) Jackson figured Rachel could win the Preakness and the Belmont and he then he could send her off to make the fastest race horse that ever lived.
A funny thing might happen along the way. She drew the 13 post. The lady drew the far outside which puts her at a distinct disadvantage going into Pimlico’s short first turn. Sure her connections are saying how happy they are with the post; that she’s out there where she can’t be bothered or intimidated. She’s also out there where no horse has ever won a Preakness, at post 13. This will be no easy chore.
And there is the possibility she will be intimidated by some of the boys, regardless. Sure Rags to Riches won the Belmont two years ago, and Winning Colors won the Derby a few decades ago, but that’s about it. The girls don’t usually take the boys on this early in their careers and when they do the results aren’t very good.
So when you consider that Rachel is going to be a 3-2 favorite and that juicy odds will be had for just about anyone else you like, it’s hard to get that excited about betting a filly being asked to do something she’s never done before.
Who could beat? There’s a line of 12 others who signed up for the chance. Among those are two that appear to have the best chance. Big Drama, leaving from post 1, and Derby winner Mine That Bird, in post 2. ‘Drama,’ who did not run in the Derby, has won five straight and set a track record at Gulfstream in his last. He’ll be near the lead the entire race and could easily win it at 10-1.
The ‘Bird’ looks like he’s improving with every race and should benefit from another race on a dirt track. He also could be a lot closer than most think, as he’s shown an ability to challenge from close up or far back. Another to watch for is 30-1 longshot Take the Points, who has won twice on dirt and has his best speed figure on dirt. He’s also working up to this race in grand form.
As for Derby runner-ups, Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem, Freisan Fire and Musket Man, they all look tired from difficult campaigns leading up to the Derby, and they may all go back some. Of the four, Musket Man appears to have the best shot to hit the board.
Then again, Rachel might be a super filly after all.
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Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Nantz: Sportscaster of Year...Again
Sunday night the best sportscasters and sportswriters in the country got together for the 50th time to honor their own. And Jim Nantz was named National Sportscaster of the Year. Again.
There has never been a more popular decision.
When Jim Nantz first came to CBS I mistook his graceful approach to play-by-play as one who had a lack of enthusiasm for what he was watching, and I mistakenly referred to him as dull. But I was wrong. Nantz needed to be experienced and cultivated for us at home to appreciate him.
He never yells, which just about every other play-by-play man thinks is the only way to communicate. Instead, Nantz serenades us with storylines and anecdotes. Analysts take to him like flowers to a rain shower. He always seems to get the most out of them, while never pushing himself to the front.
He also has a great sense of history, getting close with former CBS great Jack Whitaker, and several others who paved the way for him. A near scratch golfer, Nantz has played with several presidents and has been friends with the Bush family for years, but he’d never let that friendship influence his work.
Jim Nantz is so good covering the NFL, NCAA Basketball and the PGA for CBS, that you couldn’t imagine what TV would be like without him.
This marks the fourth time in 11 years Nantz has won the honor and when you think back you have to wonder who could have possibly been better the other seven years.
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There has never been a more popular decision.
When Jim Nantz first came to CBS I mistook his graceful approach to play-by-play as one who had a lack of enthusiasm for what he was watching, and I mistakenly referred to him as dull. But I was wrong. Nantz needed to be experienced and cultivated for us at home to appreciate him.
He never yells, which just about every other play-by-play man thinks is the only way to communicate. Instead, Nantz serenades us with storylines and anecdotes. Analysts take to him like flowers to a rain shower. He always seems to get the most out of them, while never pushing himself to the front.
He also has a great sense of history, getting close with former CBS great Jack Whitaker, and several others who paved the way for him. A near scratch golfer, Nantz has played with several presidents and has been friends with the Bush family for years, but he’d never let that friendship influence his work.
Jim Nantz is so good covering the NFL, NCAA Basketball and the PGA for CBS, that you couldn’t imagine what TV would be like without him.
This marks the fourth time in 11 years Nantz has won the honor and when you think back you have to wonder who could have possibly been better the other seven years.
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Sunday, May 3, 2009
It Wasn't Just the Public Who Ignored Kentucky Derby Winner
When Mine That Bird won Saturday’s Derby at 50-1 my first thought was: why was he only 50-1? He should’ve been 80 or 90 or 100-1. Nobody knew anything about the horse and nobody really cared. So why only 50-1?
The fault for this lies with racing’s media establishment which had no interest in a horse coming from Canada who’s most recent form showed a fourth place finish in New Mexico’s Sunland Derby. Because he didn’t run in Kentucky or California or Florida or New York, the racing snobs decided had no chance.
When Mine That Bird’s owners decided to put up the money to enter him in the Derby, the groans could be heard clear across the country. That’s because the ‘Bird’ was taking up a valued starting spot in the Derby—which he earned via his graded stakes earnings in Canada—which some other blue blood horse could have had. He earned them by becoming last year’s two-year-old champion in Canada.
The New York Post’s great racing writer Ray Kerrison is a perfect example. In Sunday’s Post he wrote the when he saw Mine That Bird’s unknown trainer standing alone at the barn last week, he kept right on walking by. Why waste time talking to someone whose horse had no chance, Kerrison reasoned. Good for Kerrison, at least he admits his snobbery.
Every major racing website, from the Daily Racing Form to the famous Kentucky magazine Blood-Horse, offered stories, bios, past performances and videos of races leading up to the Derby. They had videos of contenders’ races going back to last year, but none had any video on the winner. Why bother getting the video of a race from Sunland Park because no horse from New Mexico could ever win the Derby, they must’ve thought. Not when great trainers like Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert and Bill Mott are gunning for the prize. And not when the Sheik has spent another $10 million buying horses to bring to the race.
Does This Mark the End for the Beyer Boys?
But even without video, Mine That Bird’s last past performance comments give an indication he had a chance. Although fourth in the $900,000 race he was racing four wide, losing tons of ground, and even had the lead near the finish. That kind of performance was a clear signal the horse was improving rapidly, but the Beyer Boys—the ones who hand out speed figures—said that Mine That Bird’s race was at least 10 lengths slower than the true contenders. How could they be so far off? Are their speed figures a joke?
So everyone threw him out. Myself included. I would have loved to have seen video of that race but I couldn’t find it. And when I saw that he was only 50-1, I asked myself, why only 50-1? But then the racing establishment snobbery kicked into my brain. His Beyer figures were too slow, so let’s move on to consider somebody that has a chance.
And in the aftermath one has to ask, is this horse the real thing? Or was he a horse that loved the mud and found a golden rail to whistle to victory on? We’ll find out at the Preakness in two weeks. In the meantime, maybe the Beyer Boys ought to reconsider how they’re rating New Mexico races, and the rest of us should be a little less elitist, too.
For more go to: www.podolskyspicks.com
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The fault for this lies with racing’s media establishment which had no interest in a horse coming from Canada who’s most recent form showed a fourth place finish in New Mexico’s Sunland Derby. Because he didn’t run in Kentucky or California or Florida or New York, the racing snobs decided had no chance.
When Mine That Bird’s owners decided to put up the money to enter him in the Derby, the groans could be heard clear across the country. That’s because the ‘Bird’ was taking up a valued starting spot in the Derby—which he earned via his graded stakes earnings in Canada—which some other blue blood horse could have had. He earned them by becoming last year’s two-year-old champion in Canada.
The New York Post’s great racing writer Ray Kerrison is a perfect example. In Sunday’s Post he wrote the when he saw Mine That Bird’s unknown trainer standing alone at the barn last week, he kept right on walking by. Why waste time talking to someone whose horse had no chance, Kerrison reasoned. Good for Kerrison, at least he admits his snobbery.
Every major racing website, from the Daily Racing Form to the famous Kentucky magazine Blood-Horse, offered stories, bios, past performances and videos of races leading up to the Derby. They had videos of contenders’ races going back to last year, but none had any video on the winner. Why bother getting the video of a race from Sunland Park because no horse from New Mexico could ever win the Derby, they must’ve thought. Not when great trainers like Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert and Bill Mott are gunning for the prize. And not when the Sheik has spent another $10 million buying horses to bring to the race.
Does This Mark the End for the Beyer Boys?
But even without video, Mine That Bird’s last past performance comments give an indication he had a chance. Although fourth in the $900,000 race he was racing four wide, losing tons of ground, and even had the lead near the finish. That kind of performance was a clear signal the horse was improving rapidly, but the Beyer Boys—the ones who hand out speed figures—said that Mine That Bird’s race was at least 10 lengths slower than the true contenders. How could they be so far off? Are their speed figures a joke?
So everyone threw him out. Myself included. I would have loved to have seen video of that race but I couldn’t find it. And when I saw that he was only 50-1, I asked myself, why only 50-1? But then the racing establishment snobbery kicked into my brain. His Beyer figures were too slow, so let’s move on to consider somebody that has a chance.
And in the aftermath one has to ask, is this horse the real thing? Or was he a horse that loved the mud and found a golden rail to whistle to victory on? We’ll find out at the Preakness in two weeks. In the meantime, maybe the Beyer Boys ought to reconsider how they’re rating New Mexico races, and the rest of us should be a little less elitist, too.
For more go to: www.podolskyspicks.com
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Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Your Derby Winner: I Want Revenge; One to Avoid: Pioneer of the Nile
Nobody loves a longshot in the Derby more than me. Derby Day is a day for handicappers to make their score because it’s a lot easier to bet against the public than the pros. The public only bets on the races a couple of times a year, and this is one of them.
Because the public overbets the favorites and ignores live underdogs there are some wonderful prices to be had. And as much as I love a good longshot in the Derby I can’t ignore this year’s favorite, I Want Revenge. ‘Revenge’ reminds me of Bobby Frankel’s superhorse a few years ago, Empire Maker. They both won the Wood Memorial so easily you couldn’t imagine how they could ever lose again.
‘Revenge’ has tactical speed and proved he can spot the field seven lengths and still win for fun. In California, when he was just learning the game, he lost twice to Bob Baffert’s Pioneer of the Nile, while looking more impressive both times in defeat. But those races were on synthetic surfaces, not good old fashioned Kentucky dirt. Baffert is scared to death to find out how PON will run on dirt, which is why he kept him on the fake stuff for his final prep.
The great Bill Mott had PON last year and raced him on grass twice and synthetic twice. If Mott thought he would do well on dirt he could have run him on it at Saratoga, but chose the grass instead. So, to me, Pioneer of the Nile is the phony of this crowd. He’ll be second or third choice in the 20 horse field, and you can throw him out of making the exacta.
Mott, though, has a horse in Hold Me Back, who could be the longshot we’re all looking for. Mott has never won the Derby and has only started one other horse in it. It’s a clear signal he thinks this one has a big shot. HMB had one uneventful try on dirt, running out of the money after being four-wide the entire trip. He took time off and Mott brought him back to win the Lanes End in spectacular fashion and then took second in the Blue Grass. He’ll be at least 15-1.
Two others who will be flying at the end will be Chocolate Candy and General Quarters. Chocolate Candy was very impressive closing for second in the Santa Anita derby after having a wide trip while fighting a slow early pace. He’s coming to form perfectly. GQ has been sharp, showing two wins and two seconds in his last five races—all stakes. They’ll both be double digits and both are working well this week. Use them in your boxes.
Godolphin is back with two good horses they bought here last summer and trained all winter in Dubai. They are Regal Ransom, sure to be near the lead, and Desert Party. For a change they look like a contenders and the sheik has won just about every other major race in the world, so why not this one?
To me the big mystery horses are Dunkirk and Friesan Fire. Dunkirk has only had three starts and that’s not a suggested way to beat 19 others at 10 furlongs the first Saturday of May. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, a great trainer, who’s never won this race. Pletcher is starting a couple others with no chance and it feels like he’s rushing Dunkirk into this spot. Maybe he’s just throwing stuff against the wall, hoping something will stick.
Friesan Fire had either a great or terrible workout earlier in the week, going five furlongs in :57 4/5. Great because the time was so fast. Terrible because he was exhausted at the finish and had nothing left. But he is trained by Larry Jones, who had the second place Derby finishers the last two years, and that’s how he likes to train. FF has won three straight but has been off for seven weeks, which could explain why he was so tired after his work.
So here’s the bet: use I Want Revenge for first, with Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy and General Quarters for second and third, with Desert Party, Regal Ransom, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire and West Side Bernie for third only. For a $1 trifecta part-wheel it will cost $24.If you can afford it, play I Want Revenge in the second spot, with the three originally picked for second on top for another $24. If it hits dinner is on you.
--30--
Because the public overbets the favorites and ignores live underdogs there are some wonderful prices to be had. And as much as I love a good longshot in the Derby I can’t ignore this year’s favorite, I Want Revenge. ‘Revenge’ reminds me of Bobby Frankel’s superhorse a few years ago, Empire Maker. They both won the Wood Memorial so easily you couldn’t imagine how they could ever lose again.
‘Revenge’ has tactical speed and proved he can spot the field seven lengths and still win for fun. In California, when he was just learning the game, he lost twice to Bob Baffert’s Pioneer of the Nile, while looking more impressive both times in defeat. But those races were on synthetic surfaces, not good old fashioned Kentucky dirt. Baffert is scared to death to find out how PON will run on dirt, which is why he kept him on the fake stuff for his final prep.
The great Bill Mott had PON last year and raced him on grass twice and synthetic twice. If Mott thought he would do well on dirt he could have run him on it at Saratoga, but chose the grass instead. So, to me, Pioneer of the Nile is the phony of this crowd. He’ll be second or third choice in the 20 horse field, and you can throw him out of making the exacta.
Mott, though, has a horse in Hold Me Back, who could be the longshot we’re all looking for. Mott has never won the Derby and has only started one other horse in it. It’s a clear signal he thinks this one has a big shot. HMB had one uneventful try on dirt, running out of the money after being four-wide the entire trip. He took time off and Mott brought him back to win the Lanes End in spectacular fashion and then took second in the Blue Grass. He’ll be at least 15-1.
Two others who will be flying at the end will be Chocolate Candy and General Quarters. Chocolate Candy was very impressive closing for second in the Santa Anita derby after having a wide trip while fighting a slow early pace. He’s coming to form perfectly. GQ has been sharp, showing two wins and two seconds in his last five races—all stakes. They’ll both be double digits and both are working well this week. Use them in your boxes.
Godolphin is back with two good horses they bought here last summer and trained all winter in Dubai. They are Regal Ransom, sure to be near the lead, and Desert Party. For a change they look like a contenders and the sheik has won just about every other major race in the world, so why not this one?
To me the big mystery horses are Dunkirk and Friesan Fire. Dunkirk has only had three starts and that’s not a suggested way to beat 19 others at 10 furlongs the first Saturday of May. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, a great trainer, who’s never won this race. Pletcher is starting a couple others with no chance and it feels like he’s rushing Dunkirk into this spot. Maybe he’s just throwing stuff against the wall, hoping something will stick.
Friesan Fire had either a great or terrible workout earlier in the week, going five furlongs in :57 4/5. Great because the time was so fast. Terrible because he was exhausted at the finish and had nothing left. But he is trained by Larry Jones, who had the second place Derby finishers the last two years, and that’s how he likes to train. FF has won three straight but has been off for seven weeks, which could explain why he was so tired after his work.
So here’s the bet: use I Want Revenge for first, with Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy and General Quarters for second and third, with Desert Party, Regal Ransom, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire and West Side Bernie for third only. For a $1 trifecta part-wheel it will cost $24.If you can afford it, play I Want Revenge in the second spot, with the three originally picked for second on top for another $24. If it hits dinner is on you.
--30--
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
When Madden Retired from Coaching, NBC Said No Before CBS Said Yes
Turned Down by NBC, John Madden Almost Missed the Boat
by Rich Podolsky
When John Madden quit coaching the Raiders after 10 seasons, he was just 43 years old with no plan in mind. He had no idea of what he would do next.
All he knew was that he didn’t want to fly or coach any more. It turns out Madden was claustrophobic. He wouldn’t even get in an elevator if he could avoid it.
I first met John Madden while covering the Miami Dolphins in 1974. A few years later after the Raiders won the Super Bowl, our paths crossed again. I was working for the TV production company that produced The Superstars and The Superteams for ABC, and Madden was part of the Raider contingent flying to Hawaii for The Superteams shows.
In Hawaii, he and I wound up talking football until 2 a.m. each night in front of the Hilton Hawaiian Village. It really opened my eyes to what a well-rounded, interesting guy Madden was. A year later I took job writing for CBS Sports and was one of the first to welcome Madden to his new profession. But along the way Madden nearly missed having one of the greatest broadcasting careers in history.
“After I retired I didn’t know what to do with myself,” he told me. “I went to the stadium the first week of the season, but didn’t feel comfortable anywhere, so by the opening kickoff I turned around and drove home. When I got there, no one was there. My family had figured out how to fill their Sundays without me.”
So Madden puttered around and thought about what he’d like to do. Like other ex-coaches he thought he’d try TV. Back in the ‘70s NBC was doing AFC games and seemed a natural fit for Madden. But the NBC execs didn’t “get” him and eventually said no thanks. “It was one of the biggest mistakes we ever made,” NBC honcho Don Ohlmeyer later said.
It looked like Madden was back to square one when a character named Frank Ross entered the picture. Ross, a former personnel guy for the Chiefs, was freelancing on Sundays as an “information guy” for CBS’ The NFL Today. But everyone seemed to know Frank from his outrageous antics at Runyon’s, a New York sports media hangout.
Ross decided Madden was too good not be on the air. Even though Ross had no standing at CBS he had endeared himself to CBS Sports past president, Barry Frank, who was at that moment the top TV agent for powerful IMG. Somehow Ross convinced Frank to meet Madden and represent him. Once he did, he got his old friends at CBS to hire him.
By midseason that first year at CBS, Madden and partner Gary Bender, had worked their way up to the number three broadcast team for the network. Everyone kind of knew that there was something special about the way Madden talked to the audience, but they were all afraid to say so. Then one Sunday in October he started ranting about the officiating-- not like a former coach who was afraid to hurt anyone’s feelings, but like a fan at home screaming at their TV. The reaction from both the press and the viewers was amazing.
A month later Madden was paired with Pat Summerall for game in Tampa, three days after Thanksgiving. Summerall and his partner Tom Brookshier had worked on Thanksgiving Day and Brookie asked for that Sunday off. Since Summerall lived in Florida, he didn’t mind working the Tampa game. With a pro like Summerall giving Madden the space he needed, the entertainment quotient of the broadcast went sky high.
It was the beginning of a partnership that lasted more than 20 years.
Now, at the age of 73, Madden has decided to call it a day and spend more time with his family. That is, if he can find them.
--30--
by Rich Podolsky
When John Madden quit coaching the Raiders after 10 seasons, he was just 43 years old with no plan in mind. He had no idea of what he would do next.
All he knew was that he didn’t want to fly or coach any more. It turns out Madden was claustrophobic. He wouldn’t even get in an elevator if he could avoid it.
I first met John Madden while covering the Miami Dolphins in 1974. A few years later after the Raiders won the Super Bowl, our paths crossed again. I was working for the TV production company that produced The Superstars and The Superteams for ABC, and Madden was part of the Raider contingent flying to Hawaii for The Superteams shows.
In Hawaii, he and I wound up talking football until 2 a.m. each night in front of the Hilton Hawaiian Village. It really opened my eyes to what a well-rounded, interesting guy Madden was. A year later I took job writing for CBS Sports and was one of the first to welcome Madden to his new profession. But along the way Madden nearly missed having one of the greatest broadcasting careers in history.
“After I retired I didn’t know what to do with myself,” he told me. “I went to the stadium the first week of the season, but didn’t feel comfortable anywhere, so by the opening kickoff I turned around and drove home. When I got there, no one was there. My family had figured out how to fill their Sundays without me.”
So Madden puttered around and thought about what he’d like to do. Like other ex-coaches he thought he’d try TV. Back in the ‘70s NBC was doing AFC games and seemed a natural fit for Madden. But the NBC execs didn’t “get” him and eventually said no thanks. “It was one of the biggest mistakes we ever made,” NBC honcho Don Ohlmeyer later said.
It looked like Madden was back to square one when a character named Frank Ross entered the picture. Ross, a former personnel guy for the Chiefs, was freelancing on Sundays as an “information guy” for CBS’ The NFL Today. But everyone seemed to know Frank from his outrageous antics at Runyon’s, a New York sports media hangout.
Ross decided Madden was too good not be on the air. Even though Ross had no standing at CBS he had endeared himself to CBS Sports past president, Barry Frank, who was at that moment the top TV agent for powerful IMG. Somehow Ross convinced Frank to meet Madden and represent him. Once he did, he got his old friends at CBS to hire him.
By midseason that first year at CBS, Madden and partner Gary Bender, had worked their way up to the number three broadcast team for the network. Everyone kind of knew that there was something special about the way Madden talked to the audience, but they were all afraid to say so. Then one Sunday in October he started ranting about the officiating-- not like a former coach who was afraid to hurt anyone’s feelings, but like a fan at home screaming at their TV. The reaction from both the press and the viewers was amazing.
A month later Madden was paired with Pat Summerall for game in Tampa, three days after Thanksgiving. Summerall and his partner Tom Brookshier had worked on Thanksgiving Day and Brookie asked for that Sunday off. Since Summerall lived in Florida, he didn’t mind working the Tampa game. With a pro like Summerall giving Madden the space he needed, the entertainment quotient of the broadcast went sky high.
It was the beginning of a partnership that lasted more than 20 years.
Now, at the age of 73, Madden has decided to call it a day and spend more time with his family. That is, if he can find them.
--30--
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
The Masters: Pressure Like No Other
What is it about the last nine holes of The Masters that makes great players forget their great. Not just this year, but every year guys will be sailing along and all of sudden realize their in contention and boom--down they go.
I'm not just talking about great players like Kenny Perry and Chad Cambell but spectaular players like Phil and Tiger, too. As soon as Michelson got within a stroke of the lead, boom--he hits it into the crick. And when we he had a chance to make up for that he blew short, easy putts on 15 and 17.
Tiger's another jerk. He thinks he's still 21 and indestructible. Just one stroke behind going to 17, Woods hit his driver clear through the fairway and into oblivion. Then consider Perry. After hitting within two feet of the hole and birdieing 16, all he needed was a par and a bogey to win. He should have been totally relaxed. Instead he totally collapsed, bogeying both 17 and 18 and then missing the fairway on the first playoff hole, and completely choking on the second one.
Even the winner, Angel Cabrara, was trying to give the tournament away. Down the stretch he shanked a key shot on15 and then hit his drive on 18 behind a tree. When he tried to punch it out he hit another tree and was as lucky as can be to find his ball back in the fairway. From there he hit a decent wedge and made his putt to tie.
These guys completly wilt under the pressure. It's just a golf match, for pete's sake. It's not losing your job or having to pay the rent or the light bill. Half of these guys would let their caddies take the shot for them if they could. Will someone please step forward and pretend to be a man.
--30--
I'm not just talking about great players like Kenny Perry and Chad Cambell but spectaular players like Phil and Tiger, too. As soon as Michelson got within a stroke of the lead, boom--he hits it into the crick. And when we he had a chance to make up for that he blew short, easy putts on 15 and 17.
Tiger's another jerk. He thinks he's still 21 and indestructible. Just one stroke behind going to 17, Woods hit his driver clear through the fairway and into oblivion. Then consider Perry. After hitting within two feet of the hole and birdieing 16, all he needed was a par and a bogey to win. He should have been totally relaxed. Instead he totally collapsed, bogeying both 17 and 18 and then missing the fairway on the first playoff hole, and completely choking on the second one.
Even the winner, Angel Cabrara, was trying to give the tournament away. Down the stretch he shanked a key shot on15 and then hit his drive on 18 behind a tree. When he tried to punch it out he hit another tree and was as lucky as can be to find his ball back in the fairway. From there he hit a decent wedge and made his putt to tie.
These guys completly wilt under the pressure. It's just a golf match, for pete's sake. It's not losing your job or having to pay the rent or the light bill. Half of these guys would let their caddies take the shot for them if they could. Will someone please step forward and pretend to be a man.
--30--
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Nowhere to Hide Now, Alex
This is not a good week to be Alex Rodriguez. In fact it's not going to be a good year, either. Alex Rodriguez talked about taking steriods the other day. Not because he wanted to, but because he had to. He had to own up to it because his advisors told him it was the only way he could salvage any part of his rep.
But in the process he told one tall tale after another, and tried to play the American public for suckers. Only the public knows a liar when it hears one, and they're not going to cut him any slack. How could he not know what he took? How could he not know exactly when? How could he not know who gave it to him?
Sure he's sorry. Sorry he got caught. If Selena Roberts didn't nab him he would have never given it up. And now that he's admitted to taking the juice for three seasons, who can believe he didn't take anything in those great Yankee years? Who can trust anything he says or does?
This isn't a case of a guy making a mistake and being forgiven for it. This was an ongoing mistake. Day after day for at least three years.
The guy is a liar and a cheat. And the nerve of him to try and lay some blame on the reporter who asked him the question. As they said in Inherit the Wind, "it is the job of the reporter to comfort the afflicted and to afflict the confortable." And unless I'm mistaken, Alex Rodriguez is no longer comfortable.
Just like Mark McGuire and Barry Bonds, Rodriguez is going to be locked out of the Hall of Fame. There's no place there for liars and cheats.
Yes, this is not a very good time to be Alex Rodriguez.
--30--
But in the process he told one tall tale after another, and tried to play the American public for suckers. Only the public knows a liar when it hears one, and they're not going to cut him any slack. How could he not know what he took? How could he not know exactly when? How could he not know who gave it to him?
Sure he's sorry. Sorry he got caught. If Selena Roberts didn't nab him he would have never given it up. And now that he's admitted to taking the juice for three seasons, who can believe he didn't take anything in those great Yankee years? Who can trust anything he says or does?
This isn't a case of a guy making a mistake and being forgiven for it. This was an ongoing mistake. Day after day for at least three years.
The guy is a liar and a cheat. And the nerve of him to try and lay some blame on the reporter who asked him the question. As they said in Inherit the Wind, "it is the job of the reporter to comfort the afflicted and to afflict the confortable." And unless I'm mistaken, Alex Rodriguez is no longer comfortable.
Just like Mark McGuire and Barry Bonds, Rodriguez is going to be locked out of the Hall of Fame. There's no place there for liars and cheats.
Yes, this is not a very good time to be Alex Rodriguez.
--30--
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Take the Cardinals + 7
Super Bowls are like Kentucky Derbies or the stock market. People get very emotional about their picks and tend to over value the favorites and under value the dogs.
When a stock gets hot the market usually runs it up way ahead of what the fair price should be. That's how we're looking at this game. Because of their name, the Steelers are overpriced. They probably should be a 3-point favorite, especially with Heinz Ward iffy. Coming off an MCL, Ward might play, but he probably won't be able to cut, which reduces his role down to being a decoy.
Look For the Special Spread Props
Here's an interesting play: Instead of taking the points, give them with the Cardinals. If they win there's a good chance it will be by at least a TD. Many places are offering a special spread prop: Arizona plus 7-1 giving 7 1/2 points.
That's our pick: Arizona plus the odds.
--30--
When a stock gets hot the market usually runs it up way ahead of what the fair price should be. That's how we're looking at this game. Because of their name, the Steelers are overpriced. They probably should be a 3-point favorite, especially with Heinz Ward iffy. Coming off an MCL, Ward might play, but he probably won't be able to cut, which reduces his role down to being a decoy.
Look For the Special Spread Props
Here's an interesting play: Instead of taking the points, give them with the Cardinals. If they win there's a good chance it will be by at least a TD. Many places are offering a special spread prop: Arizona plus 7-1 giving 7 1/2 points.
That's our pick: Arizona plus the odds.
--30--
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Podolsky's Hotter than Oklahoma; Rich Goes 17-4 over Last Two Weeks
Can't conceive that anyone is hotter than Rich after he went 17-4 the last two weeks, culminating with 8-1 record last week, Championship Week.
Included in last week's 8-1 performance were his three best bets: Rutgers, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, all winners. This brings his Best Bet record for the season up to 26-19, while his mark for the entire season for all of his picks now stands at 108-86-2.
Keep Those Comments Coming
After five straight successful seasons picking games against the line for ESPN and AOL we started our on blog this year and hope you've followed it. Please let us know via the comments at the bottom of the blog what was helpful and what else you'd like to see in our weekly selections and editorials--other than more winners. Really do need your feedback, so please send your comments.
In the meantime, feel free to scroll down and checkout our selections from the last two weeks, or all season for that matter, and check out the reasoning behind our picks. Have a good week or two off getting reacquainted with your families.
--30--
Included in last week's 8-1 performance were his three best bets: Rutgers, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, all winners. This brings his Best Bet record for the season up to 26-19, while his mark for the entire season for all of his picks now stands at 108-86-2.
Keep Those Comments Coming
After five straight successful seasons picking games against the line for ESPN and AOL we started our on blog this year and hope you've followed it. Please let us know via the comments at the bottom of the blog what was helpful and what else you'd like to see in our weekly selections and editorials--other than more winners. Really do need your feedback, so please send your comments.
In the meantime, feel free to scroll down and checkout our selections from the last two weeks, or all season for that matter, and check out the reasoning behind our picks. Have a good week or two off getting reacquainted with your families.
--30--
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
End of the Line for Alabama
We went 9-3 last week and only Nebraska’s sleepy start prevented us from going 3-0 on our best bets (Boise and Texas were the others). Last week’s record nudges us up to 100-85-2 for the year, which is the sixth straight we’ve been over the Mendoza Line.
Conference championships highlight this week’s games, which have been a specialty of ours the last few years. For the most part, we’re going with the big favorites, Florida, Tulsa and Oklahoma, but feel that Buffalo has a chance to surprise Ball State, which is disappointed about failure to make a bowl match-up with undefeated Boise State.
Last week: 9-3; Season: 100-85-2
Best bets: 2-1; Best bets season: 23-19
Thursday
Louisville +10 1/2 at Rutgers—Rutgers is one of the hottest teams in the country and Louisville might be one of the coldest. The Scarlet Knights are playing for a possible Sun Bowl berth while the Cards are finishing out a dismal season. Losing at Syracuse had to be the worst. Can’t see L’V stopping the Rutgers offensive attack, especially the way they’re throwing the ball.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
Friday
MAC Championship (at Detroit)
Buffalo +15 vs. Ball State—Buffalo has done a good job hanging with everyone on their schedule this year, pulling many out in the final minutes. Turner Gill has done a great job and just might have convinced the Bulls they can compete against mighty Ball State. We all know about Ball State’s potent attack and 12-0 record, but who can remember that Buffalo played a tougher schedule. Yes, the Bulls made things difficult for Missouri at Mizzu, trailing just 20-14 at the half and trailed at Pitt by just 17-16 in the fourth quarter.
We’ll take our chances with Buffalo and a bundle.
The pick: Buffalo.
Saturday
SEC Championship (at Atlanta)
Alabama + 10 vs. Florida—The so-called experts are saying that Alabama’s smash-mouth brand of football is perfect to stop Florida with. Well, nobody’s stopped Florida all year, except Florida. Other than their 31-30 loss to a very good Mississippi team, the Gators have destroyed everyone. Winning by 30 has become commonplace to them. If there ever was a time or a situation that would slow them down you’d think it might’ve been last week in the pouring rain at Florida State. Didn’t happen. Besides, how’s Alabama going to catch up once they’re down two touchdowns?
The pick: Florida. Don't be surprised if Florida's special teams are the difference.
ACC Championship (at Tampa)
Boston College -1 vs. Virginia Tech—This is an awfully tough spot to put freshman QB Dominique Davis for Boston College. Davis has been very good replacing veteran Chris Crane the last few games, not throwing any interceptions and managing the game well, but this is for all the marbles and this is the Virginia Tech defense he’s facing. Giving Tech a big edge with two-headed QB. Both have experience in big games and either can get the job done. BC’s been winning with smoke and mirrors and good D, but the party ends here.
The pick: Virginia Tech (best bet).
Big 12 Championship (at Kansas City)
Missouri +16 1/2 vs. Oklahoma—Only the weather might be able to slow down Oklahoma, which has scored 60 plus in four straight games. And Mizzu certainly doesn’t have the defense to do it. The Sooners had Missouri’s number last year when the Tigers were much better. Can’t see much of a competition here.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet).
Conference USA Championship
East Carolina +12 at Tulsa—Unlike the other conference title games, this one is not played on a neutral field, and Tulsa has wiped out everyone at Tulsa this year. In their five home games this year Tulsa has won each by spreads ranging from 28 to 49 points.
East Carolina held the ball nearly 39 minutes last week while crushing UTEP 53-21, running the ball 53 times. With Patrick Pinkney throwing and running effectively, the Pirates could be tough and will obviously try to play keep away from Tulsa, too. In the end, though, Tulsa just has too much firepower at home.
The pick: Tulsa.
Army +10 1/2 vs. Navy (at Philadelphia)—This is a much better Army team then in past years, but we’re still not sold. Navy still looks to be better moving the ball on the ground or the air. By comparison, Navy easily won at Air Force against a team that handled Army on the Hudson. The Middies also beat a couple of good teams in Wake Forest and Rutgers and just last week easily handled Northern Illinois on the road, which is one of the better MAC teams.
The pick: Navy.
USC -33 at UCLA—USC has little to play for. The Trojans are disappointed they’re going back to the Rose Bowl and figure they just have to show up to beat the Bruins. UCLA has everything to play for. A near victory would be a win for UCLA in this situation, and getting almost five touchdowns is too much to pass up in this rivalry. This team has more heart than Notre Dame.
The pick: UCLA.
Arkansas State +11 at Troy—Arkansas State began the year by upsetting Texas A&M, but that win doesn’t look nearly as good in December. The Indians didn’t live up to their potential by losing at home to Southern Miss and at Memphis, At Alabama they played hard but failed, 35-0. Troy, on the other hand, was a quarter away from knocking off LSU and only a lost by faltering late. In their other big-time game Troy was very competitive, losing 28-10 at Ohio State. This looks like an easy Troy victory.
The pick: Troy.
Second Thoughts
Well the BCS did it. They ruined everyone’s football season by sending Texas to the showers while rewarding Oklahoma for getting hot late. This is even worse than ’04 when Auburn was snubbed with a perfect record. Even a plus one would be a lot better than what we have, but the Obama eight-team plan is the one we need.
Looking ahead to the Rose Bowl, with a disinterested Southern Cal team taking on a good underdog in Penn State. Last weekend the L.A. Times called Penn State, “just another Big Ten vase.” I’m sure that will go over well.
--30--
Conference championships highlight this week’s games, which have been a specialty of ours the last few years. For the most part, we’re going with the big favorites, Florida, Tulsa and Oklahoma, but feel that Buffalo has a chance to surprise Ball State, which is disappointed about failure to make a bowl match-up with undefeated Boise State.
Last week: 9-3; Season: 100-85-2
Best bets: 2-1; Best bets season: 23-19
Thursday
Louisville +10 1/2 at Rutgers—Rutgers is one of the hottest teams in the country and Louisville might be one of the coldest. The Scarlet Knights are playing for a possible Sun Bowl berth while the Cards are finishing out a dismal season. Losing at Syracuse had to be the worst. Can’t see L’V stopping the Rutgers offensive attack, especially the way they’re throwing the ball.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
Friday
MAC Championship (at Detroit)
Buffalo +15 vs. Ball State—Buffalo has done a good job hanging with everyone on their schedule this year, pulling many out in the final minutes. Turner Gill has done a great job and just might have convinced the Bulls they can compete against mighty Ball State. We all know about Ball State’s potent attack and 12-0 record, but who can remember that Buffalo played a tougher schedule. Yes, the Bulls made things difficult for Missouri at Mizzu, trailing just 20-14 at the half and trailed at Pitt by just 17-16 in the fourth quarter.
We’ll take our chances with Buffalo and a bundle.
The pick: Buffalo.
Saturday
SEC Championship (at Atlanta)
Alabama + 10 vs. Florida—The so-called experts are saying that Alabama’s smash-mouth brand of football is perfect to stop Florida with. Well, nobody’s stopped Florida all year, except Florida. Other than their 31-30 loss to a very good Mississippi team, the Gators have destroyed everyone. Winning by 30 has become commonplace to them. If there ever was a time or a situation that would slow them down you’d think it might’ve been last week in the pouring rain at Florida State. Didn’t happen. Besides, how’s Alabama going to catch up once they’re down two touchdowns?
The pick: Florida. Don't be surprised if Florida's special teams are the difference.
ACC Championship (at Tampa)
Boston College -1 vs. Virginia Tech—This is an awfully tough spot to put freshman QB Dominique Davis for Boston College. Davis has been very good replacing veteran Chris Crane the last few games, not throwing any interceptions and managing the game well, but this is for all the marbles and this is the Virginia Tech defense he’s facing. Giving Tech a big edge with two-headed QB. Both have experience in big games and either can get the job done. BC’s been winning with smoke and mirrors and good D, but the party ends here.
The pick: Virginia Tech (best bet).
Big 12 Championship (at Kansas City)
Missouri +16 1/2 vs. Oklahoma—Only the weather might be able to slow down Oklahoma, which has scored 60 plus in four straight games. And Mizzu certainly doesn’t have the defense to do it. The Sooners had Missouri’s number last year when the Tigers were much better. Can’t see much of a competition here.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet).
Conference USA Championship
East Carolina +12 at Tulsa—Unlike the other conference title games, this one is not played on a neutral field, and Tulsa has wiped out everyone at Tulsa this year. In their five home games this year Tulsa has won each by spreads ranging from 28 to 49 points.
East Carolina held the ball nearly 39 minutes last week while crushing UTEP 53-21, running the ball 53 times. With Patrick Pinkney throwing and running effectively, the Pirates could be tough and will obviously try to play keep away from Tulsa, too. In the end, though, Tulsa just has too much firepower at home.
The pick: Tulsa.
Army +10 1/2 vs. Navy (at Philadelphia)—This is a much better Army team then in past years, but we’re still not sold. Navy still looks to be better moving the ball on the ground or the air. By comparison, Navy easily won at Air Force against a team that handled Army on the Hudson. The Middies also beat a couple of good teams in Wake Forest and Rutgers and just last week easily handled Northern Illinois on the road, which is one of the better MAC teams.
The pick: Navy.
USC -33 at UCLA—USC has little to play for. The Trojans are disappointed they’re going back to the Rose Bowl and figure they just have to show up to beat the Bruins. UCLA has everything to play for. A near victory would be a win for UCLA in this situation, and getting almost five touchdowns is too much to pass up in this rivalry. This team has more heart than Notre Dame.
The pick: UCLA.
Arkansas State +11 at Troy—Arkansas State began the year by upsetting Texas A&M, but that win doesn’t look nearly as good in December. The Indians didn’t live up to their potential by losing at home to Southern Miss and at Memphis, At Alabama they played hard but failed, 35-0. Troy, on the other hand, was a quarter away from knocking off LSU and only a lost by faltering late. In their other big-time game Troy was very competitive, losing 28-10 at Ohio State. This looks like an easy Troy victory.
The pick: Troy.
Second Thoughts
Well the BCS did it. They ruined everyone’s football season by sending Texas to the showers while rewarding Oklahoma for getting hot late. This is even worse than ’04 when Auburn was snubbed with a perfect record. Even a plus one would be a lot better than what we have, but the Obama eight-team plan is the one we need.
Looking ahead to the Rose Bowl, with a disinterested Southern Cal team taking on a good underdog in Penn State. Last weekend the L.A. Times called Penn State, “just another Big Ten vase.” I’m sure that will go over well.
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Monday, November 24, 2008
What a Revoltin' Development This Is
“What a mess the BCS is.” That statement could have been made almost anytime in the last 10 years and probably in the next 10, but it’s never seemed truer than now. Because the college presidents have gotten into bed with the bowls and refuse to sanction a playoff, rolling up the score to embarrassing proportions has been encouraged. Encouraged, hell it’s been demanded, if you want to move up in the polls. Except we don’t call it bad sportsmanship anymore, we call it style points. I call it bullcrap.
Where is the level playing field with the BCS standings when Alabama and Florida, who are No.1 and No.2 in the AP poll (not used by the BCS) have to face off in the SEC championship and thereby eliminate one or the other’s chances? How fare is that when Ohio State or Penn State or USC don’t have to face a conference finale?
And how fare is it when some coaches in contention have a vote in the Coaches’ poll (Texas’ Mack Brown) and some coaches don’t, like Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. What’s to prevent Brown from voting Texas No.1 and Oklahoma No.25? With secret balloting that exists, who would know the difference?
Obama Can Move Mountains but Not the BCS
And these are the conditions in which the BCS exists and the BCS standings are determined. This is how we wind up with the two teams to play for the BCS title. I’d like to call it a national championship, but how can I. National championships are determined on the field, not by secret ballots or smooth-talking lobbyists.
President-elect Obama is on the verge of accomplishing some miraculous things, like getting millions of people back to work and turning around our economy. But when he pounds the table demanding an 8-team playoff, all he gets is a polite brush-off from the BCS. Maybe its time for the 99% of us who have begged for a playoff all our lives to storm the Bastille.
Thursday
Texas A&M +35 at Texas—This is the Longhorns last chance to remind the voters how good they are. They’ve got to crush A&M and hope Oklahoma State can upset the Sooners. The Aggies have surprised Texas the last two years but there was very little on the line then. No surprises here. Mack Brown says he doesn’t believe on intentionally rolling up the score. We’ll see if he means it.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Friday
West Virginia -3½ at Pittsburgh—Still a lot at stake for these two even though it looks like Cincy has the Big East BCS spot locked up. West Virginia was a 40-point fave last year when the Panthers knocked them out of the BCS title game. Since then Pitt has improved and the Mountaineers have gotten worse, which makes our choice an easy one.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Colorado +18 at Nebraska—Since beating West Virginia at home early in the season, the Buffs have gone down hill fast. And all of a sudden Nebraska has become monster in the Big 12 North with Joe Ganz having a great season both running and passing. Ever since the Huskers found themselves in an overtime loss at Texas Tech, they’ve easily defeated Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas, while getting crushed at Oklahoma. Last Saturday we found out that even the best get crushed at Oklahoma.
The pick: Nebraska (best bet).
Fresno State +21 at Boise State—Even though it looks like Boise State will lose the BCS automatic berth to Utah, the Broncos are still working on a perfect season and a very good bowl game. They were extremely impressive putting away Nevada last week and should have no problem with Fresno, which played like zombies for most of the game at San Jose.
The pick: Boise State (best bet).
Saturday
Oklahoma -7 1/2 at Oklahoma State—It’s all on the line for the Sooners. A win and they’re in, because the voters are certain to propel them ahead of Texas in the BCS standings. Getting that win won’t be easy, however. In their past three trips to Stillwater, it didn’t matter how badly the Sooners crushed their opponent the week before, they always have had trouble with the Cowboys. Three trips ago they lost, sending Les Miles to a big payday. On their last two trips they barely squeaked out victories, winning by 6 and 3 points. Have the Sooners come down from the clouds yet?
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Florida -16 at Florida State—Florida not only needs to win this game but it needs to win it big, and we think they will. This used to be a big rivalry game, but Florida has won the last four in a row. However there is hope for FSU because the last two times these teams played in Tallahassee the Gators only won by 7. But Florida has won its four conference road games this year by 24, 28, 31 and 39 points at Tennessee, Vandy, Arkansas and Georgia, and has won its other six games by spreads ranging from 23 to 58. And we all know how Urban Meyer loves to step on your throat when you’re begging for mercy.
The pick: Florida.
Auburn +14 1/2 at Alabama—It’s simple for Alabama, beat Auburn then beat Florida and they’re in the BCS championship. No style points necessary, just win. By one point if need be. Auburn, on the other hand, is looking to save its season. But Auburn has been putrid on the road, losing at Vanderbilt, Mississippii and West Virginia and barely beating Miss. State, 3-2. They might have a nice run going against the Tide, but it all ends here. This isn’t your father’s Alabama or your mother’s Auburn we’re talking ‘bout.
The pick: Alabama.
Georgia Tech +8 at Georgia—Georgia’s going to have the same problem defending Tech’s triple option that Miami had last week, and even though Georgia had extra time to prepare, seeing it in person for the first time is hard to deal with. The Bulldogs have had a disappointing season and have no chance to gain a BCS bowl bid. Besides, the last two games between these two played in Athens have been decided by three and six points.
The pick: Georgia Tech.
Miami -2 at N.C. State—The Wolfpack have found themselves a great quarterback in Russell Wilson who has developed into a showstopper for coach Tom O’Brien. Wilson has thrown for 14 TDs against just one interception this year and was flawless leading the ‘Pack to three straight victories. The last, at North Carolina, was a gem and knocked the Tar Heels out of ACC contention. A victory here makes the Wolfpack bowl eligible, too.
Miami has been up and down, winning five straight before losing at Georgia Tech last week. A victory gives Miami an 8-4 record, but we’re going with Wilson again.
The pick: N.C. State.
Maryland +6½ at Boston College—This is a winner-take-all match for the right to represent to ACC Atlantic division for the conference title next week in Tampa. The Eagles got in this position by winning two tough road games at Florida State and at Wake Forest the last two weeks. And they might have to win this with back-up QB Dominique Davis who replaced injured Chris Crane. Maryland’s lost three out of four road games this year, all by 10 or more, and got blown out on their last visit to Chestnut Hill. Going with the team with momentum.
The pick: Boston College.
Oregon +3 at Oregon State—There’s a lot on the line for Oregon State. A victory will send the Beavers to Rose Bowl for a return match with Penn State. And while Oregon has been rested with a bye week, State has been through the ringer winning tough games at Arizona last week and against Cal the week before. Can they squeeze the juice for one more? We think so because the Beavers have controlled this series recently, winning three of the last four and the Ducks have gone home winless their last three trips to Corvalis.
The pick: Oregon State. Careful, State's Qizz Rodgers looks like a late scratch (shoulder).
Notre Dame +31 1/2 at USC—Normally we’d say you can name your score here, but here’s what you need to watch out for. The Oregon State game starts an hour earlier than USC’s. If Oregon State is winning handily, the Trojans might be disappointed they can’t go to the Rose Bowl. Might be. We’ll still look for the kill here.
The pick: USC.
Last week: 6-6-1; Season: 91-82-2
Best bets last week: 2-1; season:21-18
Second Thoughts
Posting early this week because many folks are traveling including us. Will do our best to keep the point-spreads current….Texas Tech needs to wake up fast because if they beat Baylor and Oklahoma loses in Stillwater, the Red Raiders go to the Big 12 title game, and Baylor looks easy to pass against…Virginia Tech only needs to beat Virginia to go to the ACC title game…Tulsa looks almost too good giving 14 at Marshall, which has been pathetic lately….Mississippi looks like a layup against Miss. State, which is banged up and about to make wholesale changes. ...Remember the idea is to eat the turkey, not to be one. Happy Thanksgiving!
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Where is the level playing field with the BCS standings when Alabama and Florida, who are No.1 and No.2 in the AP poll (not used by the BCS) have to face off in the SEC championship and thereby eliminate one or the other’s chances? How fare is that when Ohio State or Penn State or USC don’t have to face a conference finale?
And how fare is it when some coaches in contention have a vote in the Coaches’ poll (Texas’ Mack Brown) and some coaches don’t, like Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. What’s to prevent Brown from voting Texas No.1 and Oklahoma No.25? With secret balloting that exists, who would know the difference?
Obama Can Move Mountains but Not the BCS
And these are the conditions in which the BCS exists and the BCS standings are determined. This is how we wind up with the two teams to play for the BCS title. I’d like to call it a national championship, but how can I. National championships are determined on the field, not by secret ballots or smooth-talking lobbyists.
President-elect Obama is on the verge of accomplishing some miraculous things, like getting millions of people back to work and turning around our economy. But when he pounds the table demanding an 8-team playoff, all he gets is a polite brush-off from the BCS. Maybe its time for the 99% of us who have begged for a playoff all our lives to storm the Bastille.
Thursday
Texas A&M +35 at Texas—This is the Longhorns last chance to remind the voters how good they are. They’ve got to crush A&M and hope Oklahoma State can upset the Sooners. The Aggies have surprised Texas the last two years but there was very little on the line then. No surprises here. Mack Brown says he doesn’t believe on intentionally rolling up the score. We’ll see if he means it.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Friday
West Virginia -3½ at Pittsburgh—Still a lot at stake for these two even though it looks like Cincy has the Big East BCS spot locked up. West Virginia was a 40-point fave last year when the Panthers knocked them out of the BCS title game. Since then Pitt has improved and the Mountaineers have gotten worse, which makes our choice an easy one.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Colorado +18 at Nebraska—Since beating West Virginia at home early in the season, the Buffs have gone down hill fast. And all of a sudden Nebraska has become monster in the Big 12 North with Joe Ganz having a great season both running and passing. Ever since the Huskers found themselves in an overtime loss at Texas Tech, they’ve easily defeated Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas, while getting crushed at Oklahoma. Last Saturday we found out that even the best get crushed at Oklahoma.
The pick: Nebraska (best bet).
Fresno State +21 at Boise State—Even though it looks like Boise State will lose the BCS automatic berth to Utah, the Broncos are still working on a perfect season and a very good bowl game. They were extremely impressive putting away Nevada last week and should have no problem with Fresno, which played like zombies for most of the game at San Jose.
The pick: Boise State (best bet).
Saturday
Oklahoma -7 1/2 at Oklahoma State—It’s all on the line for the Sooners. A win and they’re in, because the voters are certain to propel them ahead of Texas in the BCS standings. Getting that win won’t be easy, however. In their past three trips to Stillwater, it didn’t matter how badly the Sooners crushed their opponent the week before, they always have had trouble with the Cowboys. Three trips ago they lost, sending Les Miles to a big payday. On their last two trips they barely squeaked out victories, winning by 6 and 3 points. Have the Sooners come down from the clouds yet?
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Florida -16 at Florida State—Florida not only needs to win this game but it needs to win it big, and we think they will. This used to be a big rivalry game, but Florida has won the last four in a row. However there is hope for FSU because the last two times these teams played in Tallahassee the Gators only won by 7. But Florida has won its four conference road games this year by 24, 28, 31 and 39 points at Tennessee, Vandy, Arkansas and Georgia, and has won its other six games by spreads ranging from 23 to 58. And we all know how Urban Meyer loves to step on your throat when you’re begging for mercy.
The pick: Florida.
Auburn +14 1/2 at Alabama—It’s simple for Alabama, beat Auburn then beat Florida and they’re in the BCS championship. No style points necessary, just win. By one point if need be. Auburn, on the other hand, is looking to save its season. But Auburn has been putrid on the road, losing at Vanderbilt, Mississippii and West Virginia and barely beating Miss. State, 3-2. They might have a nice run going against the Tide, but it all ends here. This isn’t your father’s Alabama or your mother’s Auburn we’re talking ‘bout.
The pick: Alabama.
Georgia Tech +8 at Georgia—Georgia’s going to have the same problem defending Tech’s triple option that Miami had last week, and even though Georgia had extra time to prepare, seeing it in person for the first time is hard to deal with. The Bulldogs have had a disappointing season and have no chance to gain a BCS bowl bid. Besides, the last two games between these two played in Athens have been decided by three and six points.
The pick: Georgia Tech.
Miami -2 at N.C. State—The Wolfpack have found themselves a great quarterback in Russell Wilson who has developed into a showstopper for coach Tom O’Brien. Wilson has thrown for 14 TDs against just one interception this year and was flawless leading the ‘Pack to three straight victories. The last, at North Carolina, was a gem and knocked the Tar Heels out of ACC contention. A victory here makes the Wolfpack bowl eligible, too.
Miami has been up and down, winning five straight before losing at Georgia Tech last week. A victory gives Miami an 8-4 record, but we’re going with Wilson again.
The pick: N.C. State.
Maryland +6½ at Boston College—This is a winner-take-all match for the right to represent to ACC Atlantic division for the conference title next week in Tampa. The Eagles got in this position by winning two tough road games at Florida State and at Wake Forest the last two weeks. And they might have to win this with back-up QB Dominique Davis who replaced injured Chris Crane. Maryland’s lost three out of four road games this year, all by 10 or more, and got blown out on their last visit to Chestnut Hill. Going with the team with momentum.
The pick: Boston College.
Oregon +3 at Oregon State—There’s a lot on the line for Oregon State. A victory will send the Beavers to Rose Bowl for a return match with Penn State. And while Oregon has been rested with a bye week, State has been through the ringer winning tough games at Arizona last week and against Cal the week before. Can they squeeze the juice for one more? We think so because the Beavers have controlled this series recently, winning three of the last four and the Ducks have gone home winless their last three trips to Corvalis.
The pick: Oregon State. Careful, State's Qizz Rodgers looks like a late scratch (shoulder).
Notre Dame +31 1/2 at USC—Normally we’d say you can name your score here, but here’s what you need to watch out for. The Oregon State game starts an hour earlier than USC’s. If Oregon State is winning handily, the Trojans might be disappointed they can’t go to the Rose Bowl. Might be. We’ll still look for the kill here.
The pick: USC.
Last week: 6-6-1; Season: 91-82-2
Best bets last week: 2-1; season:21-18
Second Thoughts
Posting early this week because many folks are traveling including us. Will do our best to keep the point-spreads current….Texas Tech needs to wake up fast because if they beat Baylor and Oklahoma loses in Stillwater, the Red Raiders go to the Big 12 title game, and Baylor looks easy to pass against…Virginia Tech only needs to beat Virginia to go to the ACC title game…Tulsa looks almost too good giving 14 at Marshall, which has been pathetic lately….Mississippi looks like a layup against Miss. State, which is banged up and about to make wholesale changes. ...Remember the idea is to eat the turkey, not to be one. Happy Thanksgiving!
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Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Texas Tech to Upset Oklahoma
This is rivalry week but all the classic get-togethers have been upstaged by Texas Tech and Oklahoma. If Tech wins they have an easy path for a spot at the BCS championship table. If Oklahoma wins it keeps them alive for a spot and assures them a BCS game no matter what they do the next week against Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma is 60-2 at home under Bob Stoops which makes the task even harder. The Red Raiders, though, are about the only team with the talent and the temperament to pull it off. And we think they will.
This week’s best bets: Miami, TCU and Rutgers.
Saturday
Texas Tech +7 at Oklahoma—It’s hard to find a tougher game to pick. We’ve been riding Texas Tech all season, a team with an offense everyone loves to watch. And now Tech has a defense to go with its offense.
Oklahoma’s riding a 25-game winning streak at home and would be tough to beat under any circumstances. But if anybody can beat them in Norman it’s the Red Raiders who had a touchdown lead at halftime in their last meeting in Norman and who has won the last two clashes in Lubbock. Most of the Tech offense played in Norman two years ago and won’t be in awe of the Sooners. With Reynolds out of the middle, Oklahoma remains somewhat vulnerable. If the line can keep Harrell clean, he’ll play pitch and catch all day.
Also, these two coaches know each other very well, with Leach being off. coordinator for Stoops before he took the Tech job seven years ago. Regardless, I can’t see a blowout happening here, either way. So with a prospect of a close game, the points are very attractive.
The pick: Texas Tech.
Pittsburgh + 6 at Cincinnati—Pitt may have gotten a bye at the wrong time now that they’re finally playing up to their potential. Cincy again has QB issues with Pike knocked for a loop late last week and Grutza looking rusty off the bench. The Panthers have won this game the last three years, and in fact, have never lost to the Bearcats.
Pitt also has been a terrific road team, winning five straight out of town. The streak started at the end of last season with their improbable 13-9 victory at West Virginia, costing the Mountaineers a chance to play for the BCS title. This year the Panthers have won at Syracuse, South Florida, Navy and Notre Dame. As good as Cincy is at home at night, Pitt won’t be intimidated. With the Big East title at stake, this also looks like a close finish.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Michigan +20½ at Ohio State—Ohio State doesn’t get a chance to blow out Michigan very often and we have a feeling they’re going to relish this opportunity. If Rodriguiz can somehow talk Michigan into a showing up it’ll be the greatest speech since Rockne. The Wolverines are hurting at QB again and are out-manned in nearly every category.
The pick: Ohio State.
BYU +7 at Utah—Ten of the last 11 meetings between this Holy War pair have been decided by 7 points or less, which should be enough to tell you which way to go here. BYU has slumped after losing to TCU, but showed some life beating Air Force last week.
Utah’s been lucky, catching Michigan before anyone knew how bad they were, and topping TCU in a game they would have never won on a neutral field. The Utes aren’t bad, mind you, but they’re certainly not as good as their No.7 ranking.
The pick: BYU.
Michigan State +15½ at Penn State—The Lions had a week to cry in their beer after blowing their title hopes at Iowa, and looked like a shadow of themselves for a half last week, before waking up to smother Indiana. Now they realize that winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl isn’t so bad after all, so expect a full out effort against the Spartans. Michigan State choked at home against Ohio State so how can you expect them to stay in the game at Happy Valley? Besides, Penn State should control both lines.
The pick: Penn State.
Boise State -6½ at Nevada—Is Nevada ready for prime time? Two years ago we thought so after three straight blow-out victories they hosted Boise and got knocked to kingdom come, 31-7. Last year the Wolf Pack lost a 69-67 zillion-overtime heartbreaker at Boise. Now they are coming to host this game off of two impressive victories, 41-28 at Fresno and 41-17 over San Jose State, two teams that are next best in the conference. Of course, Boise’s still working on a perfect season, and praying for BYU to beat Utah so it can return to a BCS bowl. In September the Pack ran for over 200 yards against Texas Tech and only trailed Tech 14-12 in the second half before finally succumbing.
The pick: Nevada. Like the Liza Minelli song, for Nevada it’s “Maybe This Time.”
Air Force +20 at TCU—After watching one-dimensional Air Force try to pass against BYU, you get the feeling they might get shutout by TCU’s great defense. Besides, TCU’s been explosive at home this year, beating Stanford by 17, BYU by 25, San Diego State by 34 and Wyoming by 47. This number seems very makeable.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
N.C. State +11 at North Carolina—There’s no question that the Tar Heels are on the verge of being a power in the ACC, and a win vs. N.C. State could send them to play for the conference title. But N.C. State has also improved by leaps and bounds. Five straight covers for one thing. And they weren’t against patsies, but teams like B.C., Florida State and last week’s victim, Wake. This is a rivalry and the Wolfpack are still undervalued.
The pick: N.C. State.
Army +18½ at Rutgers— Rutgers looks like a layup against Army with the Cadets thinking about Navy upcoming. Can’t see how Army can defend the suddenly potent Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights have won four straight and after a 1-5 start can finish 7-5 and go to a good bowl. But beware of the back door because the Cadets never give up.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
UCF +5½ at Memphis—Memphis is at home where they’ve played well this year and get QB Hall back from injury. Hall threw for 350 yards vs. Louisville before he got hurt. UCF has had problems scoring all season and usually lays an egg on the road. To add some spice, Memphis still has a shot to play for the Conference USA title.
The pick: Memphis.
Wednesday
Ball State -7 at Central Michigan—The Chips have won the last four meetings and are coming on at the right time of the year. Ball State is undefeated and looking for a challenge. The Cardinals hardly broke a sweat in their last two and should be able to move the ball through the air again. This could be one of those games won by the team who has the ball last.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Thursday
Miami +3½ at Georgia Tech—Miami is the only team this year whose defense knocked Florida around. Now the Hurricanes have realized just how good they are or could be. Facing Georgia Tech’s triple option for the first time with only a week to prepare is a tough assignment, but Miami has the fastest defense in the ACC. And if Tech falls behind the triple option isn’t designed to play catch up.
The pick: Miami (best bet), straight up.
Friday
Fresno State -3 at San Jose State—Fresno’s won four of its five road games this year and played the tougher schedule. The Bulldogs also have dominated San Jose in the series. The Spartans’ season appears to have gone downhill after losing to Boise State. Since then they squeaked passed awful Idaho and were badly beaten at home by La. Tech and trounced at Nevada.
The pick: Fresno State, which might be looking ahead to Boise next.
Season: 85-76-1; Last week: 5-7
Best Bets season: 19-17; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
Arizona vs. Oregon State is an intriguing match-up but too tough to call. Hard to believe Mike Stoops was the Oklahoma defensive coordinator before he left for Arizona. Last week the Sun Devils defense leaked 55 points Oregon’s way. Who among you wouldn’t have taken Arizona +6 last week if you knew they were going to score 45?
Stanford’s been in one tough game after another and just when they need a break they face Cal in the big one at Cal. Gotta think Stanford finally collapses here…Maryland is undefeated at home and has a way of winning the close ones. FSU might have thrown it all away last week in a campus brawl, and the hangover from that will probably hand the victory to the Terps….
Believe it or not, money is pouring in on Washington State in the Apple Cup. The line opened with the Huskies favored by 9½ and dropped down to 7½ in two days. Hard to believe that anyone would bet this game, let alone on State….
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Oklahoma is 60-2 at home under Bob Stoops which makes the task even harder. The Red Raiders, though, are about the only team with the talent and the temperament to pull it off. And we think they will.
This week’s best bets: Miami, TCU and Rutgers.
Saturday
Texas Tech +7 at Oklahoma—It’s hard to find a tougher game to pick. We’ve been riding Texas Tech all season, a team with an offense everyone loves to watch. And now Tech has a defense to go with its offense.
Oklahoma’s riding a 25-game winning streak at home and would be tough to beat under any circumstances. But if anybody can beat them in Norman it’s the Red Raiders who had a touchdown lead at halftime in their last meeting in Norman and who has won the last two clashes in Lubbock. Most of the Tech offense played in Norman two years ago and won’t be in awe of the Sooners. With Reynolds out of the middle, Oklahoma remains somewhat vulnerable. If the line can keep Harrell clean, he’ll play pitch and catch all day.
Also, these two coaches know each other very well, with Leach being off. coordinator for Stoops before he took the Tech job seven years ago. Regardless, I can’t see a blowout happening here, either way. So with a prospect of a close game, the points are very attractive.
The pick: Texas Tech.
Pittsburgh + 6 at Cincinnati—Pitt may have gotten a bye at the wrong time now that they’re finally playing up to their potential. Cincy again has QB issues with Pike knocked for a loop late last week and Grutza looking rusty off the bench. The Panthers have won this game the last three years, and in fact, have never lost to the Bearcats.
Pitt also has been a terrific road team, winning five straight out of town. The streak started at the end of last season with their improbable 13-9 victory at West Virginia, costing the Mountaineers a chance to play for the BCS title. This year the Panthers have won at Syracuse, South Florida, Navy and Notre Dame. As good as Cincy is at home at night, Pitt won’t be intimidated. With the Big East title at stake, this also looks like a close finish.
The pick: Pittsburgh.
Michigan +20½ at Ohio State—Ohio State doesn’t get a chance to blow out Michigan very often and we have a feeling they’re going to relish this opportunity. If Rodriguiz can somehow talk Michigan into a showing up it’ll be the greatest speech since Rockne. The Wolverines are hurting at QB again and are out-manned in nearly every category.
The pick: Ohio State.
BYU +7 at Utah—Ten of the last 11 meetings between this Holy War pair have been decided by 7 points or less, which should be enough to tell you which way to go here. BYU has slumped after losing to TCU, but showed some life beating Air Force last week.
Utah’s been lucky, catching Michigan before anyone knew how bad they were, and topping TCU in a game they would have never won on a neutral field. The Utes aren’t bad, mind you, but they’re certainly not as good as their No.7 ranking.
The pick: BYU.
Michigan State +15½ at Penn State—The Lions had a week to cry in their beer after blowing their title hopes at Iowa, and looked like a shadow of themselves for a half last week, before waking up to smother Indiana. Now they realize that winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl isn’t so bad after all, so expect a full out effort against the Spartans. Michigan State choked at home against Ohio State so how can you expect them to stay in the game at Happy Valley? Besides, Penn State should control both lines.
The pick: Penn State.
Boise State -6½ at Nevada—Is Nevada ready for prime time? Two years ago we thought so after three straight blow-out victories they hosted Boise and got knocked to kingdom come, 31-7. Last year the Wolf Pack lost a 69-67 zillion-overtime heartbreaker at Boise. Now they are coming to host this game off of two impressive victories, 41-28 at Fresno and 41-17 over San Jose State, two teams that are next best in the conference. Of course, Boise’s still working on a perfect season, and praying for BYU to beat Utah so it can return to a BCS bowl. In September the Pack ran for over 200 yards against Texas Tech and only trailed Tech 14-12 in the second half before finally succumbing.
The pick: Nevada. Like the Liza Minelli song, for Nevada it’s “Maybe This Time.”
Air Force +20 at TCU—After watching one-dimensional Air Force try to pass against BYU, you get the feeling they might get shutout by TCU’s great defense. Besides, TCU’s been explosive at home this year, beating Stanford by 17, BYU by 25, San Diego State by 34 and Wyoming by 47. This number seems very makeable.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
N.C. State +11 at North Carolina—There’s no question that the Tar Heels are on the verge of being a power in the ACC, and a win vs. N.C. State could send them to play for the conference title. But N.C. State has also improved by leaps and bounds. Five straight covers for one thing. And they weren’t against patsies, but teams like B.C., Florida State and last week’s victim, Wake. This is a rivalry and the Wolfpack are still undervalued.
The pick: N.C. State.
Army +18½ at Rutgers— Rutgers looks like a layup against Army with the Cadets thinking about Navy upcoming. Can’t see how Army can defend the suddenly potent Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights have won four straight and after a 1-5 start can finish 7-5 and go to a good bowl. But beware of the back door because the Cadets never give up.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
UCF +5½ at Memphis—Memphis is at home where they’ve played well this year and get QB Hall back from injury. Hall threw for 350 yards vs. Louisville before he got hurt. UCF has had problems scoring all season and usually lays an egg on the road. To add some spice, Memphis still has a shot to play for the Conference USA title.
The pick: Memphis.
Wednesday
Ball State -7 at Central Michigan—The Chips have won the last four meetings and are coming on at the right time of the year. Ball State is undefeated and looking for a challenge. The Cardinals hardly broke a sweat in their last two and should be able to move the ball through the air again. This could be one of those games won by the team who has the ball last.
The pick: Central Michigan.
Thursday
Miami +3½ at Georgia Tech—Miami is the only team this year whose defense knocked Florida around. Now the Hurricanes have realized just how good they are or could be. Facing Georgia Tech’s triple option for the first time with only a week to prepare is a tough assignment, but Miami has the fastest defense in the ACC. And if Tech falls behind the triple option isn’t designed to play catch up.
The pick: Miami (best bet), straight up.
Friday
Fresno State -3 at San Jose State—Fresno’s won four of its five road games this year and played the tougher schedule. The Bulldogs also have dominated San Jose in the series. The Spartans’ season appears to have gone downhill after losing to Boise State. Since then they squeaked passed awful Idaho and were badly beaten at home by La. Tech and trounced at Nevada.
The pick: Fresno State, which might be looking ahead to Boise next.
Season: 85-76-1; Last week: 5-7
Best Bets season: 19-17; last week: 1-2
Second Thoughts
Arizona vs. Oregon State is an intriguing match-up but too tough to call. Hard to believe Mike Stoops was the Oklahoma defensive coordinator before he left for Arizona. Last week the Sun Devils defense leaked 55 points Oregon’s way. Who among you wouldn’t have taken Arizona +6 last week if you knew they were going to score 45?
Stanford’s been in one tough game after another and just when they need a break they face Cal in the big one at Cal. Gotta think Stanford finally collapses here…Maryland is undefeated at home and has a way of winning the close ones. FSU might have thrown it all away last week in a campus brawl, and the hangover from that will probably hand the victory to the Terps….
Believe it or not, money is pouring in on Washington State in the Apple Cup. The line opened with the Huskies favored by 9½ and dropped down to 7½ in two days. Hard to believe that anyone would bet this game, let alone on State….
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--30--
Sunday, November 16, 2008
What's Wrong with Urban Meyer?
Urban Meyer makes the term "killer instinct" look like group therapy. Someone must have taken away his lolly when he was two. Or maybe he didn't get a chance to ride the new bike on his block. Whatever his problem is he should see a shrink, and stop taking it out on everyone else in the Southeast Conference.
What? Wasn't it good enough that his Gators were completely dominating Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks last Saturday, leading 42-6 in the fourth quarter? No, I guess not. It wasn't good enough for Meyer until he had Spurrier and the Gamecocks completely humiliated. By having his Heisman QB, Tim Tebow, still in the game passing, and Percy Harvin still in slashing, he was rubbing dirt in the opposition's face. Not to mention risking injuries to his stars.
Was Meyer looking for style points? Whoever said humiliation was a style to be admired? Was Meyer afraid the BCS wouldn't remember that he his team laid 50 humiliating points on LSU and 49 on Georgia, and just for the fun of it he had his team score 63 against Kentucky, which had the nerve to score five of its own points. Several of those final TDs in the Kentucky game came late with Tebow still out there.
What's he proving? Does he think we hadn't noticed that his team is worthy of playing for the BCS championship? Maybe he figures that the rest of us will assume Florida's better than Texas (which is fighting the Gators for a possible spot in the finals) because Texas only won 35-7. He must think that Texas coach Mack Brown is a sucker for not running it up on Kansas. Some might even call Brown a gentleman, but Brown, too, should be admonished for having his quarterback, Colt McCoy, still playing in the fourth quarter.
You'd think Spurrier was some horrible human being the way Meyer's team stripped Spurrier's of any dignity that remained. 56-6. Wasn't 42-6 enough? The Sunday morning headlines screamed that Florida had handed Spurrier, a great coach, his worst defeat ever. It's exactly what Meyer was looking for. But Spurrier's greatness happened while coaching Florida. Maybe that was what Meyer was after--to leave no doubt about who was Florida's greatest coach.
Now let's talk about the Georgia game for a second. Okay, maybe Georgia did over-do it last year when the whole team ran on the field to celebrate its first score. This year's final score of 49-10 should have been revenge enough. The final score spoke for itself. But no, Meyer had to call two timeouts in the final seconds to rub it in Georgia's face some more and humiliate its coaching staff.
Maybe Meyer's doing all this because he's mad at himself for not having his team prepared when it lost 31-30 to Mississippi. But for some reason he didn't, and they lost. AT HOME! Which is no reason to humiliate every other team on the schedule.
Meyer is the type of guy that when he's got you on the ground and you're begging for mercy, he steps on your throat and smiles. Meyer has said he doesn't like to talk to the opposing coach before a game because he thinks it's phoney. Maybe it's because he's gutless; afraid to share a kind word with someone he intends to destroy and humiliate.
One day Urban Meyer's teams will not be so good. They might even be just a little above average like Spurrier's. When that day comes every coach in the Southeast Conference will return the favor. But they'll probably do it with a lot more class. It would be hard not to.
Unfortunately, we live in a society that has rewarded Meyer and his team for their blowout, humiliating victories by voting them higher in the polls. So when we ask, what's wrong with Urban Meyer, the answer might be: what's wrong with us.
--30--
What? Wasn't it good enough that his Gators were completely dominating Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks last Saturday, leading 42-6 in the fourth quarter? No, I guess not. It wasn't good enough for Meyer until he had Spurrier and the Gamecocks completely humiliated. By having his Heisman QB, Tim Tebow, still in the game passing, and Percy Harvin still in slashing, he was rubbing dirt in the opposition's face. Not to mention risking injuries to his stars.
Was Meyer looking for style points? Whoever said humiliation was a style to be admired? Was Meyer afraid the BCS wouldn't remember that he his team laid 50 humiliating points on LSU and 49 on Georgia, and just for the fun of it he had his team score 63 against Kentucky, which had the nerve to score five of its own points. Several of those final TDs in the Kentucky game came late with Tebow still out there.
What's he proving? Does he think we hadn't noticed that his team is worthy of playing for the BCS championship? Maybe he figures that the rest of us will assume Florida's better than Texas (which is fighting the Gators for a possible spot in the finals) because Texas only won 35-7. He must think that Texas coach Mack Brown is a sucker for not running it up on Kansas. Some might even call Brown a gentleman, but Brown, too, should be admonished for having his quarterback, Colt McCoy, still playing in the fourth quarter.
You'd think Spurrier was some horrible human being the way Meyer's team stripped Spurrier's of any dignity that remained. 56-6. Wasn't 42-6 enough? The Sunday morning headlines screamed that Florida had handed Spurrier, a great coach, his worst defeat ever. It's exactly what Meyer was looking for. But Spurrier's greatness happened while coaching Florida. Maybe that was what Meyer was after--to leave no doubt about who was Florida's greatest coach.
Now let's talk about the Georgia game for a second. Okay, maybe Georgia did over-do it last year when the whole team ran on the field to celebrate its first score. This year's final score of 49-10 should have been revenge enough. The final score spoke for itself. But no, Meyer had to call two timeouts in the final seconds to rub it in Georgia's face some more and humiliate its coaching staff.
Maybe Meyer's doing all this because he's mad at himself for not having his team prepared when it lost 31-30 to Mississippi. But for some reason he didn't, and they lost. AT HOME! Which is no reason to humiliate every other team on the schedule.
Meyer is the type of guy that when he's got you on the ground and you're begging for mercy, he steps on your throat and smiles. Meyer has said he doesn't like to talk to the opposing coach before a game because he thinks it's phoney. Maybe it's because he's gutless; afraid to share a kind word with someone he intends to destroy and humiliate.
One day Urban Meyer's teams will not be so good. They might even be just a little above average like Spurrier's. When that day comes every coach in the Southeast Conference will return the favor. But they'll probably do it with a lot more class. It would be hard not to.
Unfortunately, we live in a society that has rewarded Meyer and his team for their blowout, humiliating victories by voting them higher in the polls. So when we ask, what's wrong with Urban Meyer, the answer might be: what's wrong with us.
--30--
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