Nobody loves a longshot in the Derby more than me. Derby Day is a day for handicappers to make their score because it’s a lot easier to bet against the public than the pros. The public only bets on the races a couple of times a year, and this is one of them.
Because the public overbets the favorites and ignores live underdogs there are some wonderful prices to be had. And as much as I love a good longshot in the Derby I can’t ignore this year’s favorite, I Want Revenge. ‘Revenge’ reminds me of Bobby Frankel’s superhorse a few years ago, Empire Maker. They both won the Wood Memorial so easily you couldn’t imagine how they could ever lose again.
‘Revenge’ has tactical speed and proved he can spot the field seven lengths and still win for fun. In California, when he was just learning the game, he lost twice to Bob Baffert’s Pioneer of the Nile, while looking more impressive both times in defeat. But those races were on synthetic surfaces, not good old fashioned Kentucky dirt. Baffert is scared to death to find out how PON will run on dirt, which is why he kept him on the fake stuff for his final prep.
The great Bill Mott had PON last year and raced him on grass twice and synthetic twice. If Mott thought he would do well on dirt he could have run him on it at Saratoga, but chose the grass instead. So, to me, Pioneer of the Nile is the phony of this crowd. He’ll be second or third choice in the 20 horse field, and you can throw him out of making the exacta.
Mott, though, has a horse in Hold Me Back, who could be the longshot we’re all looking for. Mott has never won the Derby and has only started one other horse in it. It’s a clear signal he thinks this one has a big shot. HMB had one uneventful try on dirt, running out of the money after being four-wide the entire trip. He took time off and Mott brought him back to win the Lanes End in spectacular fashion and then took second in the Blue Grass. He’ll be at least 15-1.
Two others who will be flying at the end will be Chocolate Candy and General Quarters. Chocolate Candy was very impressive closing for second in the Santa Anita derby after having a wide trip while fighting a slow early pace. He’s coming to form perfectly. GQ has been sharp, showing two wins and two seconds in his last five races—all stakes. They’ll both be double digits and both are working well this week. Use them in your boxes.
Godolphin is back with two good horses they bought here last summer and trained all winter in Dubai. They are Regal Ransom, sure to be near the lead, and Desert Party. For a change they look like a contenders and the sheik has won just about every other major race in the world, so why not this one?
To me the big mystery horses are Dunkirk and Friesan Fire. Dunkirk has only had three starts and that’s not a suggested way to beat 19 others at 10 furlongs the first Saturday of May. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, a great trainer, who’s never won this race. Pletcher is starting a couple others with no chance and it feels like he’s rushing Dunkirk into this spot. Maybe he’s just throwing stuff against the wall, hoping something will stick.
Friesan Fire had either a great or terrible workout earlier in the week, going five furlongs in :57 4/5. Great because the time was so fast. Terrible because he was exhausted at the finish and had nothing left. But he is trained by Larry Jones, who had the second place Derby finishers the last two years, and that’s how he likes to train. FF has won three straight but has been off for seven weeks, which could explain why he was so tired after his work.
So here’s the bet: use I Want Revenge for first, with Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy and General Quarters for second and third, with Desert Party, Regal Ransom, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire and West Side Bernie for third only. For a $1 trifecta part-wheel it will cost $24.If you can afford it, play I Want Revenge in the second spot, with the three originally picked for second on top for another $24. If it hits dinner is on you.
--30--
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
When Madden Retired from Coaching, NBC Said No Before CBS Said Yes
Turned Down by NBC, John Madden Almost Missed the Boat
by Rich Podolsky
When John Madden quit coaching the Raiders after 10 seasons, he was just 43 years old with no plan in mind. He had no idea of what he would do next.
All he knew was that he didn’t want to fly or coach any more. It turns out Madden was claustrophobic. He wouldn’t even get in an elevator if he could avoid it.
I first met John Madden while covering the Miami Dolphins in 1974. A few years later after the Raiders won the Super Bowl, our paths crossed again. I was working for the TV production company that produced The Superstars and The Superteams for ABC, and Madden was part of the Raider contingent flying to Hawaii for The Superteams shows.
In Hawaii, he and I wound up talking football until 2 a.m. each night in front of the Hilton Hawaiian Village. It really opened my eyes to what a well-rounded, interesting guy Madden was. A year later I took job writing for CBS Sports and was one of the first to welcome Madden to his new profession. But along the way Madden nearly missed having one of the greatest broadcasting careers in history.
“After I retired I didn’t know what to do with myself,” he told me. “I went to the stadium the first week of the season, but didn’t feel comfortable anywhere, so by the opening kickoff I turned around and drove home. When I got there, no one was there. My family had figured out how to fill their Sundays without me.”
So Madden puttered around and thought about what he’d like to do. Like other ex-coaches he thought he’d try TV. Back in the ‘70s NBC was doing AFC games and seemed a natural fit for Madden. But the NBC execs didn’t “get” him and eventually said no thanks. “It was one of the biggest mistakes we ever made,” NBC honcho Don Ohlmeyer later said.
It looked like Madden was back to square one when a character named Frank Ross entered the picture. Ross, a former personnel guy for the Chiefs, was freelancing on Sundays as an “information guy” for CBS’ The NFL Today. But everyone seemed to know Frank from his outrageous antics at Runyon’s, a New York sports media hangout.
Ross decided Madden was too good not be on the air. Even though Ross had no standing at CBS he had endeared himself to CBS Sports past president, Barry Frank, who was at that moment the top TV agent for powerful IMG. Somehow Ross convinced Frank to meet Madden and represent him. Once he did, he got his old friends at CBS to hire him.
By midseason that first year at CBS, Madden and partner Gary Bender, had worked their way up to the number three broadcast team for the network. Everyone kind of knew that there was something special about the way Madden talked to the audience, but they were all afraid to say so. Then one Sunday in October he started ranting about the officiating-- not like a former coach who was afraid to hurt anyone’s feelings, but like a fan at home screaming at their TV. The reaction from both the press and the viewers was amazing.
A month later Madden was paired with Pat Summerall for game in Tampa, three days after Thanksgiving. Summerall and his partner Tom Brookshier had worked on Thanksgiving Day and Brookie asked for that Sunday off. Since Summerall lived in Florida, he didn’t mind working the Tampa game. With a pro like Summerall giving Madden the space he needed, the entertainment quotient of the broadcast went sky high.
It was the beginning of a partnership that lasted more than 20 years.
Now, at the age of 73, Madden has decided to call it a day and spend more time with his family. That is, if he can find them.
--30--
by Rich Podolsky
When John Madden quit coaching the Raiders after 10 seasons, he was just 43 years old with no plan in mind. He had no idea of what he would do next.
All he knew was that he didn’t want to fly or coach any more. It turns out Madden was claustrophobic. He wouldn’t even get in an elevator if he could avoid it.
I first met John Madden while covering the Miami Dolphins in 1974. A few years later after the Raiders won the Super Bowl, our paths crossed again. I was working for the TV production company that produced The Superstars and The Superteams for ABC, and Madden was part of the Raider contingent flying to Hawaii for The Superteams shows.
In Hawaii, he and I wound up talking football until 2 a.m. each night in front of the Hilton Hawaiian Village. It really opened my eyes to what a well-rounded, interesting guy Madden was. A year later I took job writing for CBS Sports and was one of the first to welcome Madden to his new profession. But along the way Madden nearly missed having one of the greatest broadcasting careers in history.
“After I retired I didn’t know what to do with myself,” he told me. “I went to the stadium the first week of the season, but didn’t feel comfortable anywhere, so by the opening kickoff I turned around and drove home. When I got there, no one was there. My family had figured out how to fill their Sundays without me.”
So Madden puttered around and thought about what he’d like to do. Like other ex-coaches he thought he’d try TV. Back in the ‘70s NBC was doing AFC games and seemed a natural fit for Madden. But the NBC execs didn’t “get” him and eventually said no thanks. “It was one of the biggest mistakes we ever made,” NBC honcho Don Ohlmeyer later said.
It looked like Madden was back to square one when a character named Frank Ross entered the picture. Ross, a former personnel guy for the Chiefs, was freelancing on Sundays as an “information guy” for CBS’ The NFL Today. But everyone seemed to know Frank from his outrageous antics at Runyon’s, a New York sports media hangout.
Ross decided Madden was too good not be on the air. Even though Ross had no standing at CBS he had endeared himself to CBS Sports past president, Barry Frank, who was at that moment the top TV agent for powerful IMG. Somehow Ross convinced Frank to meet Madden and represent him. Once he did, he got his old friends at CBS to hire him.
By midseason that first year at CBS, Madden and partner Gary Bender, had worked their way up to the number three broadcast team for the network. Everyone kind of knew that there was something special about the way Madden talked to the audience, but they were all afraid to say so. Then one Sunday in October he started ranting about the officiating-- not like a former coach who was afraid to hurt anyone’s feelings, but like a fan at home screaming at their TV. The reaction from both the press and the viewers was amazing.
A month later Madden was paired with Pat Summerall for game in Tampa, three days after Thanksgiving. Summerall and his partner Tom Brookshier had worked on Thanksgiving Day and Brookie asked for that Sunday off. Since Summerall lived in Florida, he didn’t mind working the Tampa game. With a pro like Summerall giving Madden the space he needed, the entertainment quotient of the broadcast went sky high.
It was the beginning of a partnership that lasted more than 20 years.
Now, at the age of 73, Madden has decided to call it a day and spend more time with his family. That is, if he can find them.
--30--
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
The Masters: Pressure Like No Other
What is it about the last nine holes of The Masters that makes great players forget their great. Not just this year, but every year guys will be sailing along and all of sudden realize their in contention and boom--down they go.
I'm not just talking about great players like Kenny Perry and Chad Cambell but spectaular players like Phil and Tiger, too. As soon as Michelson got within a stroke of the lead, boom--he hits it into the crick. And when we he had a chance to make up for that he blew short, easy putts on 15 and 17.
Tiger's another jerk. He thinks he's still 21 and indestructible. Just one stroke behind going to 17, Woods hit his driver clear through the fairway and into oblivion. Then consider Perry. After hitting within two feet of the hole and birdieing 16, all he needed was a par and a bogey to win. He should have been totally relaxed. Instead he totally collapsed, bogeying both 17 and 18 and then missing the fairway on the first playoff hole, and completely choking on the second one.
Even the winner, Angel Cabrara, was trying to give the tournament away. Down the stretch he shanked a key shot on15 and then hit his drive on 18 behind a tree. When he tried to punch it out he hit another tree and was as lucky as can be to find his ball back in the fairway. From there he hit a decent wedge and made his putt to tie.
These guys completly wilt under the pressure. It's just a golf match, for pete's sake. It's not losing your job or having to pay the rent or the light bill. Half of these guys would let their caddies take the shot for them if they could. Will someone please step forward and pretend to be a man.
--30--
I'm not just talking about great players like Kenny Perry and Chad Cambell but spectaular players like Phil and Tiger, too. As soon as Michelson got within a stroke of the lead, boom--he hits it into the crick. And when we he had a chance to make up for that he blew short, easy putts on 15 and 17.
Tiger's another jerk. He thinks he's still 21 and indestructible. Just one stroke behind going to 17, Woods hit his driver clear through the fairway and into oblivion. Then consider Perry. After hitting within two feet of the hole and birdieing 16, all he needed was a par and a bogey to win. He should have been totally relaxed. Instead he totally collapsed, bogeying both 17 and 18 and then missing the fairway on the first playoff hole, and completely choking on the second one.
Even the winner, Angel Cabrara, was trying to give the tournament away. Down the stretch he shanked a key shot on15 and then hit his drive on 18 behind a tree. When he tried to punch it out he hit another tree and was as lucky as can be to find his ball back in the fairway. From there he hit a decent wedge and made his putt to tie.
These guys completly wilt under the pressure. It's just a golf match, for pete's sake. It's not losing your job or having to pay the rent or the light bill. Half of these guys would let their caddies take the shot for them if they could. Will someone please step forward and pretend to be a man.
--30--
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Nowhere to Hide Now, Alex
This is not a good week to be Alex Rodriguez. In fact it's not going to be a good year, either. Alex Rodriguez talked about taking steriods the other day. Not because he wanted to, but because he had to. He had to own up to it because his advisors told him it was the only way he could salvage any part of his rep.
But in the process he told one tall tale after another, and tried to play the American public for suckers. Only the public knows a liar when it hears one, and they're not going to cut him any slack. How could he not know what he took? How could he not know exactly when? How could he not know who gave it to him?
Sure he's sorry. Sorry he got caught. If Selena Roberts didn't nab him he would have never given it up. And now that he's admitted to taking the juice for three seasons, who can believe he didn't take anything in those great Yankee years? Who can trust anything he says or does?
This isn't a case of a guy making a mistake and being forgiven for it. This was an ongoing mistake. Day after day for at least three years.
The guy is a liar and a cheat. And the nerve of him to try and lay some blame on the reporter who asked him the question. As they said in Inherit the Wind, "it is the job of the reporter to comfort the afflicted and to afflict the confortable." And unless I'm mistaken, Alex Rodriguez is no longer comfortable.
Just like Mark McGuire and Barry Bonds, Rodriguez is going to be locked out of the Hall of Fame. There's no place there for liars and cheats.
Yes, this is not a very good time to be Alex Rodriguez.
--30--
But in the process he told one tall tale after another, and tried to play the American public for suckers. Only the public knows a liar when it hears one, and they're not going to cut him any slack. How could he not know what he took? How could he not know exactly when? How could he not know who gave it to him?
Sure he's sorry. Sorry he got caught. If Selena Roberts didn't nab him he would have never given it up. And now that he's admitted to taking the juice for three seasons, who can believe he didn't take anything in those great Yankee years? Who can trust anything he says or does?
This isn't a case of a guy making a mistake and being forgiven for it. This was an ongoing mistake. Day after day for at least three years.
The guy is a liar and a cheat. And the nerve of him to try and lay some blame on the reporter who asked him the question. As they said in Inherit the Wind, "it is the job of the reporter to comfort the afflicted and to afflict the confortable." And unless I'm mistaken, Alex Rodriguez is no longer comfortable.
Just like Mark McGuire and Barry Bonds, Rodriguez is going to be locked out of the Hall of Fame. There's no place there for liars and cheats.
Yes, this is not a very good time to be Alex Rodriguez.
--30--
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Take the Cardinals + 7
Super Bowls are like Kentucky Derbies or the stock market. People get very emotional about their picks and tend to over value the favorites and under value the dogs.
When a stock gets hot the market usually runs it up way ahead of what the fair price should be. That's how we're looking at this game. Because of their name, the Steelers are overpriced. They probably should be a 3-point favorite, especially with Heinz Ward iffy. Coming off an MCL, Ward might play, but he probably won't be able to cut, which reduces his role down to being a decoy.
Look For the Special Spread Props
Here's an interesting play: Instead of taking the points, give them with the Cardinals. If they win there's a good chance it will be by at least a TD. Many places are offering a special spread prop: Arizona plus 7-1 giving 7 1/2 points.
That's our pick: Arizona plus the odds.
--30--
When a stock gets hot the market usually runs it up way ahead of what the fair price should be. That's how we're looking at this game. Because of their name, the Steelers are overpriced. They probably should be a 3-point favorite, especially with Heinz Ward iffy. Coming off an MCL, Ward might play, but he probably won't be able to cut, which reduces his role down to being a decoy.
Look For the Special Spread Props
Here's an interesting play: Instead of taking the points, give them with the Cardinals. If they win there's a good chance it will be by at least a TD. Many places are offering a special spread prop: Arizona plus 7-1 giving 7 1/2 points.
That's our pick: Arizona plus the odds.
--30--
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Podolsky's Hotter than Oklahoma; Rich Goes 17-4 over Last Two Weeks
Can't conceive that anyone is hotter than Rich after he went 17-4 the last two weeks, culminating with 8-1 record last week, Championship Week.
Included in last week's 8-1 performance were his three best bets: Rutgers, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, all winners. This brings his Best Bet record for the season up to 26-19, while his mark for the entire season for all of his picks now stands at 108-86-2.
Keep Those Comments Coming
After five straight successful seasons picking games against the line for ESPN and AOL we started our on blog this year and hope you've followed it. Please let us know via the comments at the bottom of the blog what was helpful and what else you'd like to see in our weekly selections and editorials--other than more winners. Really do need your feedback, so please send your comments.
In the meantime, feel free to scroll down and checkout our selections from the last two weeks, or all season for that matter, and check out the reasoning behind our picks. Have a good week or two off getting reacquainted with your families.
--30--
Included in last week's 8-1 performance were his three best bets: Rutgers, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, all winners. This brings his Best Bet record for the season up to 26-19, while his mark for the entire season for all of his picks now stands at 108-86-2.
Keep Those Comments Coming
After five straight successful seasons picking games against the line for ESPN and AOL we started our on blog this year and hope you've followed it. Please let us know via the comments at the bottom of the blog what was helpful and what else you'd like to see in our weekly selections and editorials--other than more winners. Really do need your feedback, so please send your comments.
In the meantime, feel free to scroll down and checkout our selections from the last two weeks, or all season for that matter, and check out the reasoning behind our picks. Have a good week or two off getting reacquainted with your families.
--30--
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
End of the Line for Alabama
We went 9-3 last week and only Nebraska’s sleepy start prevented us from going 3-0 on our best bets (Boise and Texas were the others). Last week’s record nudges us up to 100-85-2 for the year, which is the sixth straight we’ve been over the Mendoza Line.
Conference championships highlight this week’s games, which have been a specialty of ours the last few years. For the most part, we’re going with the big favorites, Florida, Tulsa and Oklahoma, but feel that Buffalo has a chance to surprise Ball State, which is disappointed about failure to make a bowl match-up with undefeated Boise State.
Last week: 9-3; Season: 100-85-2
Best bets: 2-1; Best bets season: 23-19
Thursday
Louisville +10 1/2 at Rutgers—Rutgers is one of the hottest teams in the country and Louisville might be one of the coldest. The Scarlet Knights are playing for a possible Sun Bowl berth while the Cards are finishing out a dismal season. Losing at Syracuse had to be the worst. Can’t see L’V stopping the Rutgers offensive attack, especially the way they’re throwing the ball.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
Friday
MAC Championship (at Detroit)
Buffalo +15 vs. Ball State—Buffalo has done a good job hanging with everyone on their schedule this year, pulling many out in the final minutes. Turner Gill has done a great job and just might have convinced the Bulls they can compete against mighty Ball State. We all know about Ball State’s potent attack and 12-0 record, but who can remember that Buffalo played a tougher schedule. Yes, the Bulls made things difficult for Missouri at Mizzu, trailing just 20-14 at the half and trailed at Pitt by just 17-16 in the fourth quarter.
We’ll take our chances with Buffalo and a bundle.
The pick: Buffalo.
Saturday
SEC Championship (at Atlanta)
Alabama + 10 vs. Florida—The so-called experts are saying that Alabama’s smash-mouth brand of football is perfect to stop Florida with. Well, nobody’s stopped Florida all year, except Florida. Other than their 31-30 loss to a very good Mississippi team, the Gators have destroyed everyone. Winning by 30 has become commonplace to them. If there ever was a time or a situation that would slow them down you’d think it might’ve been last week in the pouring rain at Florida State. Didn’t happen. Besides, how’s Alabama going to catch up once they’re down two touchdowns?
The pick: Florida. Don't be surprised if Florida's special teams are the difference.
ACC Championship (at Tampa)
Boston College -1 vs. Virginia Tech—This is an awfully tough spot to put freshman QB Dominique Davis for Boston College. Davis has been very good replacing veteran Chris Crane the last few games, not throwing any interceptions and managing the game well, but this is for all the marbles and this is the Virginia Tech defense he’s facing. Giving Tech a big edge with two-headed QB. Both have experience in big games and either can get the job done. BC’s been winning with smoke and mirrors and good D, but the party ends here.
The pick: Virginia Tech (best bet).
Big 12 Championship (at Kansas City)
Missouri +16 1/2 vs. Oklahoma—Only the weather might be able to slow down Oklahoma, which has scored 60 plus in four straight games. And Mizzu certainly doesn’t have the defense to do it. The Sooners had Missouri’s number last year when the Tigers were much better. Can’t see much of a competition here.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet).
Conference USA Championship
East Carolina +12 at Tulsa—Unlike the other conference title games, this one is not played on a neutral field, and Tulsa has wiped out everyone at Tulsa this year. In their five home games this year Tulsa has won each by spreads ranging from 28 to 49 points.
East Carolina held the ball nearly 39 minutes last week while crushing UTEP 53-21, running the ball 53 times. With Patrick Pinkney throwing and running effectively, the Pirates could be tough and will obviously try to play keep away from Tulsa, too. In the end, though, Tulsa just has too much firepower at home.
The pick: Tulsa.
Army +10 1/2 vs. Navy (at Philadelphia)—This is a much better Army team then in past years, but we’re still not sold. Navy still looks to be better moving the ball on the ground or the air. By comparison, Navy easily won at Air Force against a team that handled Army on the Hudson. The Middies also beat a couple of good teams in Wake Forest and Rutgers and just last week easily handled Northern Illinois on the road, which is one of the better MAC teams.
The pick: Navy.
USC -33 at UCLA—USC has little to play for. The Trojans are disappointed they’re going back to the Rose Bowl and figure they just have to show up to beat the Bruins. UCLA has everything to play for. A near victory would be a win for UCLA in this situation, and getting almost five touchdowns is too much to pass up in this rivalry. This team has more heart than Notre Dame.
The pick: UCLA.
Arkansas State +11 at Troy—Arkansas State began the year by upsetting Texas A&M, but that win doesn’t look nearly as good in December. The Indians didn’t live up to their potential by losing at home to Southern Miss and at Memphis, At Alabama they played hard but failed, 35-0. Troy, on the other hand, was a quarter away from knocking off LSU and only a lost by faltering late. In their other big-time game Troy was very competitive, losing 28-10 at Ohio State. This looks like an easy Troy victory.
The pick: Troy.
Second Thoughts
Well the BCS did it. They ruined everyone’s football season by sending Texas to the showers while rewarding Oklahoma for getting hot late. This is even worse than ’04 when Auburn was snubbed with a perfect record. Even a plus one would be a lot better than what we have, but the Obama eight-team plan is the one we need.
Looking ahead to the Rose Bowl, with a disinterested Southern Cal team taking on a good underdog in Penn State. Last weekend the L.A. Times called Penn State, “just another Big Ten vase.” I’m sure that will go over well.
--30--
Conference championships highlight this week’s games, which have been a specialty of ours the last few years. For the most part, we’re going with the big favorites, Florida, Tulsa and Oklahoma, but feel that Buffalo has a chance to surprise Ball State, which is disappointed about failure to make a bowl match-up with undefeated Boise State.
Last week: 9-3; Season: 100-85-2
Best bets: 2-1; Best bets season: 23-19
Thursday
Louisville +10 1/2 at Rutgers—Rutgers is one of the hottest teams in the country and Louisville might be one of the coldest. The Scarlet Knights are playing for a possible Sun Bowl berth while the Cards are finishing out a dismal season. Losing at Syracuse had to be the worst. Can’t see L’V stopping the Rutgers offensive attack, especially the way they’re throwing the ball.
The pick: Rutgers (best bet).
Friday
MAC Championship (at Detroit)
Buffalo +15 vs. Ball State—Buffalo has done a good job hanging with everyone on their schedule this year, pulling many out in the final minutes. Turner Gill has done a great job and just might have convinced the Bulls they can compete against mighty Ball State. We all know about Ball State’s potent attack and 12-0 record, but who can remember that Buffalo played a tougher schedule. Yes, the Bulls made things difficult for Missouri at Mizzu, trailing just 20-14 at the half and trailed at Pitt by just 17-16 in the fourth quarter.
We’ll take our chances with Buffalo and a bundle.
The pick: Buffalo.
Saturday
SEC Championship (at Atlanta)
Alabama + 10 vs. Florida—The so-called experts are saying that Alabama’s smash-mouth brand of football is perfect to stop Florida with. Well, nobody’s stopped Florida all year, except Florida. Other than their 31-30 loss to a very good Mississippi team, the Gators have destroyed everyone. Winning by 30 has become commonplace to them. If there ever was a time or a situation that would slow them down you’d think it might’ve been last week in the pouring rain at Florida State. Didn’t happen. Besides, how’s Alabama going to catch up once they’re down two touchdowns?
The pick: Florida. Don't be surprised if Florida's special teams are the difference.
ACC Championship (at Tampa)
Boston College -1 vs. Virginia Tech—This is an awfully tough spot to put freshman QB Dominique Davis for Boston College. Davis has been very good replacing veteran Chris Crane the last few games, not throwing any interceptions and managing the game well, but this is for all the marbles and this is the Virginia Tech defense he’s facing. Giving Tech a big edge with two-headed QB. Both have experience in big games and either can get the job done. BC’s been winning with smoke and mirrors and good D, but the party ends here.
The pick: Virginia Tech (best bet).
Big 12 Championship (at Kansas City)
Missouri +16 1/2 vs. Oklahoma—Only the weather might be able to slow down Oklahoma, which has scored 60 plus in four straight games. And Mizzu certainly doesn’t have the defense to do it. The Sooners had Missouri’s number last year when the Tigers were much better. Can’t see much of a competition here.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet).
Conference USA Championship
East Carolina +12 at Tulsa—Unlike the other conference title games, this one is not played on a neutral field, and Tulsa has wiped out everyone at Tulsa this year. In their five home games this year Tulsa has won each by spreads ranging from 28 to 49 points.
East Carolina held the ball nearly 39 minutes last week while crushing UTEP 53-21, running the ball 53 times. With Patrick Pinkney throwing and running effectively, the Pirates could be tough and will obviously try to play keep away from Tulsa, too. In the end, though, Tulsa just has too much firepower at home.
The pick: Tulsa.
Army +10 1/2 vs. Navy (at Philadelphia)—This is a much better Army team then in past years, but we’re still not sold. Navy still looks to be better moving the ball on the ground or the air. By comparison, Navy easily won at Air Force against a team that handled Army on the Hudson. The Middies also beat a couple of good teams in Wake Forest and Rutgers and just last week easily handled Northern Illinois on the road, which is one of the better MAC teams.
The pick: Navy.
USC -33 at UCLA—USC has little to play for. The Trojans are disappointed they’re going back to the Rose Bowl and figure they just have to show up to beat the Bruins. UCLA has everything to play for. A near victory would be a win for UCLA in this situation, and getting almost five touchdowns is too much to pass up in this rivalry. This team has more heart than Notre Dame.
The pick: UCLA.
Arkansas State +11 at Troy—Arkansas State began the year by upsetting Texas A&M, but that win doesn’t look nearly as good in December. The Indians didn’t live up to their potential by losing at home to Southern Miss and at Memphis, At Alabama they played hard but failed, 35-0. Troy, on the other hand, was a quarter away from knocking off LSU and only a lost by faltering late. In their other big-time game Troy was very competitive, losing 28-10 at Ohio State. This looks like an easy Troy victory.
The pick: Troy.
Second Thoughts
Well the BCS did it. They ruined everyone’s football season by sending Texas to the showers while rewarding Oklahoma for getting hot late. This is even worse than ’04 when Auburn was snubbed with a perfect record. Even a plus one would be a lot better than what we have, but the Obama eight-team plan is the one we need.
Looking ahead to the Rose Bowl, with a disinterested Southern Cal team taking on a good underdog in Penn State. Last weekend the L.A. Times called Penn State, “just another Big Ten vase.” I’m sure that will go over well.
--30--
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