Rich Podolsky is already off to an amazing start, going 9-1 against the line through Saturday's games. His picks for the entire weekend are below.
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Sunday, August 31, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
USC, Florida and Texas to Cruise
College Football kicks of this Labor Day weekend with games everyday or night through Monday. Questions that need to be answered include: Can Rich Rodriguiz make his West Virginia spread attack work without a quarterback that fits the system?...Can Rick Neuheisel bring enough energy to UCLA to make up for the loss of quarterback Pat Cowan (injury), DE Bruce Davis (NFL) and a weak secondary? IS USC going to be a scoring machine again or grind out the wins like it did in the second half of last year?
Here’s how we see this weekend’s games shaping up:
Friday
Temple-7 at Army—Temple seemed to get better as last year went on, winning four of their last six games in the MAC. Now they return 21 starters including quarterback, Adam DiMichele, who broke his leg late in the season.
Army doesn’t look much different. They’ll run a modified option and probably won’t be able to throw very well. Even at home, we can’t see them winning this game and there’s a chance the visiting Temple fans attending will be just as loud as the Cadets.
The pick: Temple, easily in the end.
Saturday
USC- 19 at Virginia—Rookie QB Peter Lalich could be yelling for help when the Trojan pass rush comes after him. And making matters worse, the Cavs are working with a brand new offensive line. On defense Virginia’s missing all-world pass rushers Chris Long and Jeffrey Fitzgerald (21 sacks between them).
USC gets the best material in the country, has maybe the best coach and loves to win these statement games on the road (see last year’s Nebraska game).
The pick: USC.
Utah + 3 at Michigan—Why is this line so low? Can Michigan be that bad? Okay, it’s a transition year under a new coach and it took this new coach several years before his team came together at West Virginia, but losing another opener after last year’s embarrassment to App. State, seems out of the question. Warts and all, this is still Michigan, and there remains a ton of talent there.
But this Utah team isn’t your average Mountain West contender. Last year, without their starting QB Brian Johnson, they still managed to destroy UCLA, and they won at both Louisville and TCU. Not bad. This year, with Johnson back form a shoulder injury, they should be better.
The pick: Utah. Coach Kyle Whittingham has his team focused on this one.
Hawaii +34 at Florida—The last time Hawaii was this big an underdog they lost 63-17 to USC three years ago. Things improved after that, but both Colt Brennan and June Jones and all those great receivers are gone along with some key members of the defense, so you have to wonder just how much of a fight the Warriors can put up in Gainesville.
Florida, of course, is loaded once again, and Urban Meyer has never been known for taking it easy on anyone. Hawaii will put up some points, too, but don’t be surprised if this score resembles the ’05 debacle Hawaii had with the Trojans.
The pick: Florida (best bet).
Washington +13 at Oregon—Dennis Dixon is gone and now expected starting QB Nate Costa has re-injured his leg for Oregon. Somehow, though, all that speed the Ducks have should prevail. The Ducks defense, though, will be one to be feared, with nearly everyone back from last year.
The Huskies have Jake Locker back at QB but the big problem again will be the “D” which needs to be rebuilt from last year’s disaster. Looks like another tough year for Ty Willingham who might not survive it.
The pick: Oregon. The Ducks are one of the fastest teams in the country and score in bunches.
Virginia Tech -9 at East Carolina—Sean Glennon has won the QB battle for the Hokies who will probably run more than they throw once again, even without Brandon Ore. On defense, the NFL swallowed up the cream of last year’s team, but they still should be okay.
East Carolina scared the hell out of the Hokies last year, before falling, 17-7. Once again Skip Holtz will have a strong running game and his defense has nine starters returning. The Pirates’ victory over Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl has boosted everyone’s confidence.
The pick: East Carolina. Not sure they can pull the upset, but it should be close.
Illinois +9 vs. Missouri (at St. Louis)—Can Illini QB Juice Williams’ running skills make up for the loss of RB Rashard Mendenhall? We doubt it. And Illinois’ defense isn’t going to be anywhere near as good as last year’s.
As for Missouri, they’re loaded and this can be a statement game right off the bat. Chase Daniel could be the best QB in the country and the Tiger defense looks even better than last year’s, which was pretty solid.
The pick: Missouri (best bet).
Alabama +4 at Clemson—With a solid defense returning and offensive stars like RBs James Davis and C.J. Spiller, QB Cullen Harper and WR Aaron Kelly, Clemson should be able to support a patched up offensive line.
Alabama closed out the year with four straight losses, before whipping Colorado in the Independence Bowl. Two of those losses were to Mississippi State and UL Monroe. Yes, UL Monroe for crying out loud! John Parker Wilson is back at quarterback, but three names only get you status in Hollywood. The rest of the offense is mediocre, too, and the defense has some big holes to fill. Still, in their six losses last year, none was by more than seven points.
The pick: Clemson. Can’t see an upset here.
Florida Atlantic + 23 1/2 at Texas—Destroying Memphis is last year’s New Orleans Bowl is one thing, but making some noise in Austin is quite another. Still, there’s no denying that Howard Schnellenberger has another super offensive team in FAU; one good enough to win the Sun Belt.
Jamaal Charles and Limas Sweed are gone but Texas always has a handful of RBs and WRs stashed away that could start just about anywhere else. And with Colt McCoy back to run the show, the offense should be just fine. As for the defense, it’s solid and draped with vets under new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp.
The pick: Texas. Other than last year’s 21-13 close call against Ark. State in the opener, the Longhorns have blown away everyone they’re supposed to blow away the last four years. This should be no different. Besides, someone on FAU mouthed off and the Longhorns are ticked off.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Boston College -10 at Kent—Chris Crane, Ryan’s backup the last two years at QB is expected to start and could be a good one. The Eagles also should have a decent defense again this year and should be able to handle Kent.
The Kent State Golden Flashes lost to almost everyone last year, but managed to keep it respectable in most cases. They’ll try to pass more this year but their line can’t defend the rush. On defense a young secondary is the big question mark, and against BC’s attack, that could be a problem.
The pick: Boston College. This game looks like a trap, but B.C. should prevail.
Sunday
Kentucky +3 at Louisville—Kentucky’s going to be overrated early this year until everyone realizes the stars from last year’s team are gone. Louisville still has a great offense (Hunter Cantwell is a good replacement for Brian Brohm) and a defense that’s better than it’s been painted. And in this case, the home field.
The pick: Louisville. Losing on the road to a loaded Kentucky team last year was one thing, but it won’t happen again.
Colorado -11 at Colorado State—Colorado looks like a team that’s going to be much better this year with Cody Hawkins running the show. No doubt the upset of Oklahoma last year helped. Colorado State will be a smash-mouth offense again with a mediocre defense. But this game means a lot more to the Rams than it does to the Buffs.
The pick: Colorado State. Somehow, the Rams will find a way to keep this close. The last six games have been decided by a touchdown or less, with State winning two of them.
Monday
Fresno State +4 1/2 at Rutgers—Fresno State is a lot better this season and Rutgers has slipped another notch, which should make for an interesting game. Ray Rice is gone and Greg Schiano’s defensive line at Rutgers looks ripe to be attacked by a running game like Fresno’s. It looks like the Knights will have to depend on undependable QB Mike Teel even more this year.
For Pat Hill, who likes to say his team will take on anyone, anywhere, this is a huge game. His QB, Tom Brandstater, should be better this year, and the offense overall should be outstanding. The defense is the question and if it can hold up, the Bulldogs could be undefeated going into the season finale at Boise State.
The pick: Fresno State. This will be a wake up call of Schiano’s team.
Tennessee -7½ at UCLA—Even with new coach Rick Neuheisal, UCLA looks like a mess this year. Team-leading QB Pat Cowan is injured again and Mr. Everything, Bruce Davis is now terrorizing quarterbacks in the NFL. Besides Davis, the losses on defense are many, so don’t expect those punting contests you saw last year.
Tennessee on the other hand, looks like an SEC contender again, even with Erik Ainge leaving for the pros. Their backs and WRs look solid, as does their offensive line. The Vols defense also looks pretty good everywhere but up front, where they could be vulnerable. Tennessee should win this handily except for the intangibles: UCLA usually is very tough at home and mediocre on the road.
The pick: UCLA. Tennessee’s covered only 6 of its last 15 in true road games the last three years and Neuheisal’s likely to have the Bruins high as the sky.
Second Thoughts
When the NCAA allowed everyone to schedule a 12th game, we had high hopes of seeing more inter-sectional clashes. Instead many teams have scheduled I-AA patsies and are charging their fans regular prices for what is nothing more than a scrimmage. Let’s take our hats off to the A.D.s of the following schools for bilking their teams’ fan base: Ohio State (vs. Youngstown St.), West Virginia (vs. Villanova), Georgia (vs. Ga. Southern), Oklahoma (vs. Chattanooga) and Texas Tech (vs. E. Washington) for crying out loud!
Don’t underestimate what Pitt’s upset victory over West Virginia late last year, might do for the Panthers this season. There’s nothing like knowing you can get it against the best.
Oklahoma State is an offensive machine and as fast as any team around, averaging nearly 40 points a game last year. The Cowboys open as a 7-point favorite at Washington State, not exactly known for speed. Besides the talent loss the Cougars suffered, they also had eight scholarships pulled for academic failings. The Cougars need to make a stand right here or it could be a very long season.
Auburn, which opens at home against sacrificial lamb U.L. Monroe, goes to the spread and might be much more than a good defensive team this year.
Finally, let's wish Beano Cook a happy 77th birthday! He reaches that milestone on Labor Day.
--30--
Here’s how we see this weekend’s games shaping up:
Friday
Temple-7 at Army—Temple seemed to get better as last year went on, winning four of their last six games in the MAC. Now they return 21 starters including quarterback, Adam DiMichele, who broke his leg late in the season.
Army doesn’t look much different. They’ll run a modified option and probably won’t be able to throw very well. Even at home, we can’t see them winning this game and there’s a chance the visiting Temple fans attending will be just as loud as the Cadets.
The pick: Temple, easily in the end.
Saturday
USC- 19 at Virginia—Rookie QB Peter Lalich could be yelling for help when the Trojan pass rush comes after him. And making matters worse, the Cavs are working with a brand new offensive line. On defense Virginia’s missing all-world pass rushers Chris Long and Jeffrey Fitzgerald (21 sacks between them).
USC gets the best material in the country, has maybe the best coach and loves to win these statement games on the road (see last year’s Nebraska game).
The pick: USC.
Utah + 3 at Michigan—Why is this line so low? Can Michigan be that bad? Okay, it’s a transition year under a new coach and it took this new coach several years before his team came together at West Virginia, but losing another opener after last year’s embarrassment to App. State, seems out of the question. Warts and all, this is still Michigan, and there remains a ton of talent there.
But this Utah team isn’t your average Mountain West contender. Last year, without their starting QB Brian Johnson, they still managed to destroy UCLA, and they won at both Louisville and TCU. Not bad. This year, with Johnson back form a shoulder injury, they should be better.
The pick: Utah. Coach Kyle Whittingham has his team focused on this one.
Hawaii +34 at Florida—The last time Hawaii was this big an underdog they lost 63-17 to USC three years ago. Things improved after that, but both Colt Brennan and June Jones and all those great receivers are gone along with some key members of the defense, so you have to wonder just how much of a fight the Warriors can put up in Gainesville.
Florida, of course, is loaded once again, and Urban Meyer has never been known for taking it easy on anyone. Hawaii will put up some points, too, but don’t be surprised if this score resembles the ’05 debacle Hawaii had with the Trojans.
The pick: Florida (best bet).
Washington +13 at Oregon—Dennis Dixon is gone and now expected starting QB Nate Costa has re-injured his leg for Oregon. Somehow, though, all that speed the Ducks have should prevail. The Ducks defense, though, will be one to be feared, with nearly everyone back from last year.
The Huskies have Jake Locker back at QB but the big problem again will be the “D” which needs to be rebuilt from last year’s disaster. Looks like another tough year for Ty Willingham who might not survive it.
The pick: Oregon. The Ducks are one of the fastest teams in the country and score in bunches.
Virginia Tech -9 at East Carolina—Sean Glennon has won the QB battle for the Hokies who will probably run more than they throw once again, even without Brandon Ore. On defense, the NFL swallowed up the cream of last year’s team, but they still should be okay.
East Carolina scared the hell out of the Hokies last year, before falling, 17-7. Once again Skip Holtz will have a strong running game and his defense has nine starters returning. The Pirates’ victory over Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl has boosted everyone’s confidence.
The pick: East Carolina. Not sure they can pull the upset, but it should be close.
Illinois +9 vs. Missouri (at St. Louis)—Can Illini QB Juice Williams’ running skills make up for the loss of RB Rashard Mendenhall? We doubt it. And Illinois’ defense isn’t going to be anywhere near as good as last year’s.
As for Missouri, they’re loaded and this can be a statement game right off the bat. Chase Daniel could be the best QB in the country and the Tiger defense looks even better than last year’s, which was pretty solid.
The pick: Missouri (best bet).
Alabama +4 at Clemson—With a solid defense returning and offensive stars like RBs James Davis and C.J. Spiller, QB Cullen Harper and WR Aaron Kelly, Clemson should be able to support a patched up offensive line.
Alabama closed out the year with four straight losses, before whipping Colorado in the Independence Bowl. Two of those losses were to Mississippi State and UL Monroe. Yes, UL Monroe for crying out loud! John Parker Wilson is back at quarterback, but three names only get you status in Hollywood. The rest of the offense is mediocre, too, and the defense has some big holes to fill. Still, in their six losses last year, none was by more than seven points.
The pick: Clemson. Can’t see an upset here.
Florida Atlantic + 23 1/2 at Texas—Destroying Memphis is last year’s New Orleans Bowl is one thing, but making some noise in Austin is quite another. Still, there’s no denying that Howard Schnellenberger has another super offensive team in FAU; one good enough to win the Sun Belt.
Jamaal Charles and Limas Sweed are gone but Texas always has a handful of RBs and WRs stashed away that could start just about anywhere else. And with Colt McCoy back to run the show, the offense should be just fine. As for the defense, it’s solid and draped with vets under new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp.
The pick: Texas. Other than last year’s 21-13 close call against Ark. State in the opener, the Longhorns have blown away everyone they’re supposed to blow away the last four years. This should be no different. Besides, someone on FAU mouthed off and the Longhorns are ticked off.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Boston College -10 at Kent—Chris Crane, Ryan’s backup the last two years at QB is expected to start and could be a good one. The Eagles also should have a decent defense again this year and should be able to handle Kent.
The Kent State Golden Flashes lost to almost everyone last year, but managed to keep it respectable in most cases. They’ll try to pass more this year but their line can’t defend the rush. On defense a young secondary is the big question mark, and against BC’s attack, that could be a problem.
The pick: Boston College. This game looks like a trap, but B.C. should prevail.
Sunday
Kentucky +3 at Louisville—Kentucky’s going to be overrated early this year until everyone realizes the stars from last year’s team are gone. Louisville still has a great offense (Hunter Cantwell is a good replacement for Brian Brohm) and a defense that’s better than it’s been painted. And in this case, the home field.
The pick: Louisville. Losing on the road to a loaded Kentucky team last year was one thing, but it won’t happen again.
Colorado -11 at Colorado State—Colorado looks like a team that’s going to be much better this year with Cody Hawkins running the show. No doubt the upset of Oklahoma last year helped. Colorado State will be a smash-mouth offense again with a mediocre defense. But this game means a lot more to the Rams than it does to the Buffs.
The pick: Colorado State. Somehow, the Rams will find a way to keep this close. The last six games have been decided by a touchdown or less, with State winning two of them.
Monday
Fresno State +4 1/2 at Rutgers—Fresno State is a lot better this season and Rutgers has slipped another notch, which should make for an interesting game. Ray Rice is gone and Greg Schiano’s defensive line at Rutgers looks ripe to be attacked by a running game like Fresno’s. It looks like the Knights will have to depend on undependable QB Mike Teel even more this year.
For Pat Hill, who likes to say his team will take on anyone, anywhere, this is a huge game. His QB, Tom Brandstater, should be better this year, and the offense overall should be outstanding. The defense is the question and if it can hold up, the Bulldogs could be undefeated going into the season finale at Boise State.
The pick: Fresno State. This will be a wake up call of Schiano’s team.
Tennessee -7½ at UCLA—Even with new coach Rick Neuheisal, UCLA looks like a mess this year. Team-leading QB Pat Cowan is injured again and Mr. Everything, Bruce Davis is now terrorizing quarterbacks in the NFL. Besides Davis, the losses on defense are many, so don’t expect those punting contests you saw last year.
Tennessee on the other hand, looks like an SEC contender again, even with Erik Ainge leaving for the pros. Their backs and WRs look solid, as does their offensive line. The Vols defense also looks pretty good everywhere but up front, where they could be vulnerable. Tennessee should win this handily except for the intangibles: UCLA usually is very tough at home and mediocre on the road.
The pick: UCLA. Tennessee’s covered only 6 of its last 15 in true road games the last three years and Neuheisal’s likely to have the Bruins high as the sky.
Second Thoughts
When the NCAA allowed everyone to schedule a 12th game, we had high hopes of seeing more inter-sectional clashes. Instead many teams have scheduled I-AA patsies and are charging their fans regular prices for what is nothing more than a scrimmage. Let’s take our hats off to the A.D.s of the following schools for bilking their teams’ fan base: Ohio State (vs. Youngstown St.), West Virginia (vs. Villanova), Georgia (vs. Ga. Southern), Oklahoma (vs. Chattanooga) and Texas Tech (vs. E. Washington) for crying out loud!
Don’t underestimate what Pitt’s upset victory over West Virginia late last year, might do for the Panthers this season. There’s nothing like knowing you can get it against the best.
Oklahoma State is an offensive machine and as fast as any team around, averaging nearly 40 points a game last year. The Cowboys open as a 7-point favorite at Washington State, not exactly known for speed. Besides the talent loss the Cougars suffered, they also had eight scholarships pulled for academic failings. The Cougars need to make a stand right here or it could be a very long season.
Auburn, which opens at home against sacrificial lamb U.L. Monroe, goes to the spread and might be much more than a good defensive team this year.
Western Kentucky isn’t officially in a league yet, but going 7-5 last year wasn’t a bad start. Getting nearly 21 with the Hilltoppers at Indiana looks attractive….We’re going to watch Michigan State at Cal but would be shocked if Cal lost this home opener.
Finally, let's wish Beano Cook a happy 77th birthday! He reaches that milestone on Labor Day.
--30--
Friday, August 15, 2008
Podolsky's Picks are Coming!
The College Football season begins Labor Day weekend.
Look for Podolsky's Picks to begin August 29th!
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