Texas visits Kansas, which has won 15 of its last 16 home games. Missouri, which looks like a lock to play for the Big 12 title, is nearly a four-touchdown favorite at Iowa State Saturday. The Cyclones nearly knocked off Kansas at home last month and last year upset Kansas State and Colorado and scared the pants off Oklahoma. BYU has to be thinking about Utah next week—even though their coach refuses to mention the game—while a very good Air Force team awaits.
Two other big favorites may also be taking this week’s opponents for granted. Ohio State, which is thinking about Michigan, has to visit Illinois which laid down for Western Michigan last week, but upset the Buckeyes last year; and Oklahoma State, which has its “Bedlam” game with the Sooners in two weeks, visits Colorado.
Last week: 8-4; Season: 80-69-1
Best bets last week: 2-1; Season: 18-15
This week’s best bets: Michigan, Oregon State and Tulsa.
Saturday
Mississippi State +22 at Alabama—Mississippi State has beaten Alabama the last two years, a fact that cost the last Alabama coach his job. And once again the Bulldogs will bring their best game to Tuscaloosa. It doesn’t matter that Alabama’s No.1 and that Miss. State is mediocre, Croom knows how to get his team ready for the Tide. And with the LSU scare barely behind them and the thought of playing Florida for the SEC championship, it might be hard for Alabama to focus this week.
The pick: Mississippi State, with some reluctance.
Texas -14 at Kansas—Texas better not look past Kansas because if they do they might be looking past a chance to be in the BCS finale. Kansas is a tough ticket at home losing just once in their last 16 home games, (vs. Texas Tech last month). Their previous loss was three seasons back in a low-scoring game vs. Oklahoma.
The Longhorns are good but they still give up points, yielding a 30 point average their last five games, and Kansas can score with the best of them. On the other hand, Nebraska had no trouble throwing against the KU secondary last week which bodes well for Colt McCoy. Sounds like a shootout.
The pick: Kansas.
USC-24 at Stanford—Okay, so you think USC has revenge on its mind for the way Stanford messed up the Trojans’ season last year. Maybe they do but if they can’t move the ball better than their performance against Cal, they’ll have a hard time pulling away. Normally the Cardinal would be down after letting Oregon score late and beat them last week, but not with USC coming to Palo Alto, and not when they need one more win to go bowling.
The pick: Stanford. This is Stanford's last home game.
Notre Dame -4 at Navy—The Irish looked like they were heading to a big bowl game before blowing a 2 TD lead to Pitt two weeks ago and getting shut out at B.C. last week. Now they’re wondering how to score again. Last year Navy finally cracked ND’s 43-year hex and won one. With their triple option as hard to defend as ever, this could be two in a row. The Midshipmen have won five of their last six including wins at Wake Forest and Air Force. Going with the hot team.
The pick: Navy.
Rutgers +8 at South Florida--Rutgers finally has put it together, winning three straight, and Teel looks terrific throwing the ball. Defending the pass is South Florida's biggest problem. After losing three of the last four USF called a team meeting. Not sure it will change things.
The pick: Rutgers.
BYU -4 at Air Force—BYU has blown out Air Force by anywhere from 17 to 25 points in their last four meetings. Why not again this year? Well, maybe they will, but this Air Force team seems much tougher. They’ve only lost in the last minute to Utah and the following week to Navy, which could have been a hangover game, too. Ever since BYU lost to TCU they’ve been sluggish and maybe they’re just biding their time until the Utah game next week. Regardless, this looks like a tough match up for the Cougars.
The pick: Air Force.
Cal +3 1/2 at Oregon State—Oregon State’s got a tough schedule with Cal and Oregon ahead but at least they control their own destiny. Cal is coming off two bruising games against Oregon and USC and we don’t think they can match the same intensity here.
The pick: Oregon State (best bet).
Northwestern +3 1/2 at Michigan—Northwestern seems all beat up and Michigan is finally coming on. Maybe they’re looking ahead to the Ohio State game and maybe they’re just going to be way too much for the Wildcats to handle on the road. We think it’s the latter.
The pick: Michigan (best bet).
Missouri -27 at Iowa State—Just a side note if you got back-doored with Missouri last week. The Tigers were ahead (and covering) 41-10 with 1:11 to go and had K-State backed up to its own seven when they let somebody score on a 93-yard trot. Which brings us to this game at Iowa State, a team that can jump up and surprise you at any time. The Cyclones have been up and down this year but hung tough at Iowa, lost by just two at home to Kansas, and came this close to an upset last week at Colorado. Expect the Cyclones to put forth one more big effort here while Missouri is thinking about their game with Kansas next week or maybe the Big 12 championship game the week after.
The pick: Iowa State.
Tulsa -4 at Houston—Tulsa had a bye last week and needed it to get the Arkansas loss out of their system. In that game the Golden Hurricane made mistake after mistake and still were in position to even the game in the final minute. In fact they matched up and down the field against Arkansas time after time. Now they’ve got to focus on Houston if they want to play for the Conference USA title. And Houston should be easy pickings, even on the road. Tulsa’s got the better offense and while both teams like to throw it, Tulsa’s also got the better defense.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).
Thursday
Virginia Tech +4 1/2 at Miami
The pick: Virginia Tech
Friday
Cincinnati -4 at Louisville
The pick: Cincinnati
Second Thoughts
Last week’s 8-4 mark pulled us 11 games over the Mendoza line once again. For a long while I thought about making Texas Tech our lone best bet last week, and still don’t understand USC’s conservative offense. Regret taking Penn State after mentioning they always have trouble with Iowa, especially after a bye. Texas Tech last week proved you can't rely on the smart money, which pounded Oklahoma State down from 7 to 3 by game time.
We pulled the Florida State/Boston College game from the grid because the game's been taken off the board due to possible suspensions FSU may incur from a brawl....Can’t help thinking about next week’s Texas Tech-Oklahoma game. Both teams are offensive machines. The Sooners are nearly unbeatable in Norman, having won 60 of the 62 games Bob Stoops has coached there, including their last 25 straight. The Red Raiders have beaten Oklahoma, but not in Norman, coming no closer than 10 points in their three tries under Mike Leach. In fact they’ve won two of the last three meetings, but both were in Lubbock. With a week off to build up a game that needs no hype, it has the true feeling of a Super Bowl.
Hard to see Ohio State taking Illinois seriously after watching tapes of the Illini’s laydown at Western Michigan last week, but you better believe that the Illini will bring everything they’ve got to the table here, as they’d rather beat Ohio State than win the Big 10….Leaning toward N.C. at Maryland but Terps are a tough turtle at home…Rutgers has looked good the last two weeks and should give USF all it wants….
Washington, just a 7-point dog this week at home against beaten up UCLA, might smell its big chance to get off the schneid. Expect the Huskies to pull off the upset….Syracuse is playing hard for coach Robinson an could make UCONN their second straight upset at home…The gamblers seem to like Steve Spurrier’s S.C. Gamecocks’ chance of covering big spread and have knocked the price down to 21, but how can you bet against Florida at home when they beat everybody by 50 and love to run up the score?
--30--
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