This Is No Time to Ease off the Gas for Texas Tech, Penn State and Tide

Texas Tech might not be No.1 yet, but the Red Raiders play the most entertaining football and will host another red hot team when Oklahoma State comes to Lubbock Saturday night. Last year Boone Pickins’ Cowboys won 49-45 when Michael Crabtree, of all people, dropped what would have been the winning TD pass for Tech.

The pressure will be on the Red Raiders, along with No.1 Alabama and No.3 Penn State, to win in convincing fashion. Joe Paterno might not like it, but that’s how the voters and the computers see the game these days: blow them out or you’re worthless. We’re not sure about blowouts, but we think all three will cover.

This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, USC and Stanford.

Saturday
Oklahoma State +3 at Texas Tech—This game is sandwiched in between two huge games for Texas Tech: last week’s amazing victory over Texas and Oklahoma (in two weeks). But despite the celebrating, we don’t expect a letdown. History tells us the Red Raiders have shown an ability to recover quickly the week after the Texas game, as long as that opponent isn’t the Sooners. Besides, Oklahoma State’s secondary is going to have a lot more trouble than it did against Missouri and Texas.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet). Leach will have them ready.

Alabama -3½ at LSU—Can’t see Alabama blowing it now. The Tide is exactly where they want to be and only have to win this to remain No.1. LSU has slipped, especially on defense, yielding 50+ to both Georgia and Florida, and doesn’t seem to have the heart to put an upset together here.
The pick: Alabama.

Penn State -7½ at Iowa—Will Joe Paterno get screwed out of another national championship with an undefeated team? Could be, especially if his Lions can’t put away Iowa and Michigan State with gusto. Paterno’s team has had a week off to recover from Ohio State and prepare for the improved Hawkeyes. Expect them to attack through the air.

The Hawkeyes have the Big Ten’s best red zone defense and will face the conference’s best red zone offense in Penn State. A victory would make Iowa’s season. Paterno needs to win big and hope for somebody to lose.
The pick: Penn State. Careful, though. Two of the last three times the Lions have had a bye week, they returned with a loss—against Iowa.


Cal +22 at USC—Cal continues to have quarterback problems even though Nate Longshore had success coming off the bench last week against Oregon. Longshore, though, will be a sitting duck against USC’s defense and Cal has been close to dreadful on the road this year.

USC has won its four home games this year all by at least 28 points, and the Trojans have a terrific record covering in big home games against Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame, winning their last six home meetings vs. that trio by an average of 22 points. And let’s not forget their 32-point blowout of Ohio State this year.
The pick: USC (best bet ). This game opened with Trojans an 18-point fave.

Kansas +1 at Nebraska—The Cornhuskers are embarrassed (again) after getting hammered in Norman last week and will show up big time for Kansas. Especially with payback in mind for last year’s humiliating 76-39 loss. Kansas played a near perfect game last week beating in-state rival Kansas State but its doubtful they can play that well on the road. And it’s been 40 years, 1968, since the Jayhawks won at Lincoln.
The pick: Nebraska.

Georgia Tech +4 at North Carolina—With Nesbitt at QB for Georgia Tech the Yellow Jackets have a shot to win this, but Nesbitt looks doubtful and second string QB Jaybo Shaw was very shaky in relief last week, throwing a pick and fumbling one away. Maybe he’ll be better if he gets the whole week to prepare, but N.C. had an extra week off to get ready for Tech’s triple option.
The pick: North Carolina. The Tar Heels are hot at home.

Notre Dame +3½ at Boston College—Last week’s 4 overtime loss at home to Pitt, after blowing a two touchdown lead, was devastating for Notre Dame’s season. B.C. is still 5-3 and can get to a decent bowl game with a win over the Irish. Not that the Eagles can be trusted (after allowing Clemson to take a 17-0 lead on their home field, only to recapture the lead, 21-17 and then blow it). The Irish can’t seem to beat a team with a winning record (1-10 the last two years).
The pick: Boston College. We don’t really trust either team but BC's won the last five meetings.

Cincinnati +6½ at West Virginia—West Virginia’s got its Mojo back, having won five in a row, and is playing with a ton of confidence. The Bearcats are much tougher at home than on the road where they tackle with much less efficiency. The Mountaineers have also beaten Cincinnati each of the last three years, all of them convincingly. At least the Bearcats’ QB situation looks ok with Tony Pike throwing again and Dustin Grutza a healthy back-up.
The pick: West Virginia. Rain in the forecast should works to West Virginia’s advantage.

Stanford +14 at Oregon—This isn’t your father’s Stanford or your mother’s Oregon. Under Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal have become a tough, rugged bunch who run the ball with the best of them. These teams are tied at 4-2 in the Pac-10 with a big bowl game hanging in the balance to the team that finishes second. With Oregon coming off of an emotionally difficult loss at Cal, the Ducks might just take Stanford for granted.
The pick: Stanford (best bet), in a surprising upset.

Wednesday
N. Illinois + 9½ at Ball State—Northern Illinois has won five of its last six, while not giving any of those opponents more than 13 points. Its three defeats were 31-27 at Minnesota, 29-26 at W. Michigan and 13-9 at Tennessee. All three were tough losses vs. very respectable con-conference competition. Now the Huskies visit undefeated Ball State, which is dedicating its season to injured WR Dante Love. Impressive as the Cardinals have been, they haven’t faced anyone with a defense all season. With this being a huge MAC match up, we expect this to be a close one.
The pick: Northern Illinois.

Thursday
TCU -2 at Utah—As impressive as TCU has looked blowing out BYU, Wyoming and UNLV the last three weeks, and as unimpressive as Utah looked edging out New Mexico last week, we’re going with the Utes. Home field often means everything in these classic Mountain West games and we suspect that Utah was holding back against the Lobos. Can’t fault those liking TCU in this spot, though. The Horned Frogs have been one of the best defensive teams in the country, but Utah may have their number winning the last two meetings.
The pick: Utah.

Maryland +3 at Virginia Tech—Without even knowing who the QB will be for Virginia Tech, we’re going to take the Hokies in this spot. First of all beamer doesn’t lose often at home in November. Exactly once (to Miami) in the last five years. Second of all, Maryland has not exactly lit things up on the road this year. They lost at Middle Tennessee, nearly lost at Clemson to a team that was disintegrating and then got blown out, 31-0, at Virginia. Enough said.
The pick: Virginia Tech.

Season 72-65; Last week: 4-8
Best Bets, season: 16-14; last week: 1-2

Second Thoughts
About last week. We don’t usually review like this, but last week was a bit unusual. While we nailed the big games (Texas Tech and Florida), we saw Virginia and Notre Dame blow comfortable leads at home, Tulsa march up and down the field and do everything but beat Arkansas, and Oregon lose a tough one at Cal. Happens to the best of them. Now let’s move on….

Decimating your opponent doesn’t guarantee you’ll move up in the polls. Just look at Oklahoma and USC. After burying Nebraska 62-28 last week, the Sooners dropped two spots from fourth to sixth in the BCS standings and USC also dropped two spots after a 56-0 victory….The last three times Ohio State had a bye it returned with a road loss, including one at Northwestern, which is this week’s opponent.

Look for a Kansas State collapse at Mizzu after coach was pulled away from the team….Maybe the opposite effect at Tennessee where Fulmer is loved and the opponent, Wyoming, looks helpless….Expecting a letdown by Wisky at Indiana after last second loss last week…Minny might be ripe for an upset by Michigan after their season fell apart with last second loss to NW last week.

Condolences to those who had TCU Thursday night. The Frogs are big, fast and mean and beat Utah like a drum for 59 minutes but couldn't hold on for the final drive. Two short missed field goals in the fourth quarter helped the Utes along with a good third-down defense and a great home crowd.











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