Monday, November 24, 2008

What a Revoltin' Development This Is

“What a mess the BCS is.” That statement could have been made almost anytime in the last 10 years and probably in the next 10, but it’s never seemed truer than now. Because the college presidents have gotten into bed with the bowls and refuse to sanction a playoff, rolling up the score to embarrassing proportions has been encouraged. Encouraged, hell it’s been demanded, if you want to move up in the polls. Except we don’t call it bad sportsmanship anymore, we call it style points. I call it bullcrap.

Where is the level playing field with the BCS standings when Alabama and Florida, who are No.1 and No.2 in the AP poll (not used by the BCS) have to face off in the SEC championship and thereby eliminate one or the other’s chances? How fare is that when Ohio State or Penn State or USC don’t have to face a conference finale?

And how fare is it when some coaches in contention have a vote in the Coaches’ poll (Texas’ Mack Brown) and some coaches don’t, like Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. What’s to prevent Brown from voting Texas No.1 and Oklahoma No.25? With secret balloting that exists, who would know the difference?

Obama Can Move Mountains but Not the BCS
And these are the conditions in which the BCS exists and the BCS standings are determined. This is how we wind up with the two teams to play for the BCS title. I’d like to call it a national championship, but how can I. National championships are determined on the field, not by secret ballots or smooth-talking lobbyists.

President-elect Obama is on the verge of accomplishing some miraculous things, like getting millions of people back to work and turning around our economy. But when he pounds the table demanding an 8-team playoff, all he gets is a polite brush-off from the BCS. Maybe its time for the 99% of us who have begged for a playoff all our lives to storm the Bastille.

Thursday
Texas A&M +35 at Texas—This is the Longhorns last chance to remind the voters how good they are. They’ve got to crush A&M and hope Oklahoma State can upset the Sooners. The Aggies have surprised Texas the last two years but there was very little on the line then. No surprises here. Mack Brown says he doesn’t believe on intentionally rolling up the score. We’ll see if he means it.
The pick: Texas (best bet).

Friday
West Virginia -3½ at Pittsburgh—Still a lot at stake for these two even though it looks like Cincy has the Big East BCS spot locked up. West Virginia was a 40-point fave last year when the Panthers knocked them out of the BCS title game. Since then Pitt has improved and the Mountaineers have gotten worse, which makes our choice an easy one.
The pick: Pittsburgh.

Colorado +18 at Nebraska—Since beating West Virginia at home early in the season, the Buffs have gone down hill fast. And all of a sudden Nebraska has become monster in the Big 12 North with Joe Ganz having a great season both running and passing. Ever since the Huskers found themselves in an overtime loss at Texas Tech, they’ve easily defeated Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas, while getting crushed at Oklahoma. Last Saturday we found out that even the best get crushed at Oklahoma.
The pick: Nebraska (best bet).

Fresno State +21 at Boise State—Even though it looks like Boise State will lose the BCS automatic berth to Utah, the Broncos are still working on a perfect season and a very good bowl game. They were extremely impressive putting away Nevada last week and should have no problem with Fresno, which played like zombies for most of the game at San Jose.
The pick: Boise State (best bet).

Saturday
Oklahoma -7 1/2 at Oklahoma State—It’s all on the line for the Sooners. A win and they’re in, because the voters are certain to propel them ahead of Texas in the BCS standings. Getting that win won’t be easy, however. In their past three trips to Stillwater, it didn’t matter how badly the Sooners crushed their opponent the week before, they always have had trouble with the Cowboys. Three trips ago they lost, sending Les Miles to a big payday. On their last two trips they barely squeaked out victories, winning by 6 and 3 points. Have the Sooners come down from the clouds yet?
The pick: Oklahoma State.

Florida -16 at Florida State—Florida not only needs to win this game but it needs to win it big, and we think they will. This used to be a big rivalry game, but Florida has won the last four in a row. However there is hope for FSU because the last two times these teams played in Tallahassee the Gators only won by 7. But Florida has won its four conference road games this year by 24, 28, 31 and 39 points at Tennessee, Vandy, Arkansas and Georgia, and has won its other six games by spreads ranging from 23 to 58. And we all know how Urban Meyer loves to step on your throat when you’re begging for mercy.
The pick: Florida.

Auburn +14 1/2 at Alabama—It’s simple for Alabama, beat Auburn then beat Florida and they’re in the BCS championship. No style points necessary, just win. By one point if need be. Auburn, on the other hand, is looking to save its season. But Auburn has been putrid on the road, losing at Vanderbilt, Mississippii and West Virginia and barely beating Miss. State, 3-2. They might have a nice run going against the Tide, but it all ends here. This isn’t your father’s Alabama or your mother’s Auburn we’re talking ‘bout.
The pick: Alabama.

Georgia Tech +8 at Georgia—Georgia’s going to have the same problem defending Tech’s triple option that Miami had last week, and even though Georgia had extra time to prepare, seeing it in person for the first time is hard to deal with. The Bulldogs have had a disappointing season and have no chance to gain a BCS bowl bid. Besides, the last two games between these two played in Athens have been decided by three and six points.
The pick: Georgia Tech.

Miami -2 at N.C. State—The Wolfpack have found themselves a great quarterback in Russell Wilson who has developed into a showstopper for coach Tom O’Brien. Wilson has thrown for 14 TDs against just one interception this year and was flawless leading the ‘Pack to three straight victories. The last, at North Carolina, was a gem and knocked the Tar Heels out of ACC contention. A victory here makes the Wolfpack bowl eligible, too.
Miami has been up and down, winning five straight before losing at Georgia Tech last week. A victory gives Miami an 8-4 record, but we’re going with Wilson again.
The pick: N.C. State.

Maryland +6½ at Boston College—This is a winner-take-all match for the right to represent to ACC Atlantic division for the conference title next week in Tampa. The Eagles got in this position by winning two tough road games at Florida State and at Wake Forest the last two weeks. And they might have to win this with back-up QB Dominique Davis who replaced injured Chris Crane. Maryland’s lost three out of four road games this year, all by 10 or more, and got blown out on their last visit to Chestnut Hill. Going with the team with momentum.
The pick: Boston College.

Oregon +3 at Oregon State—There’s a lot on the line for Oregon State. A victory will send the Beavers to Rose Bowl for a return match with Penn State. And while Oregon has been rested with a bye week, State has been through the ringer winning tough games at Arizona last week and against Cal the week before. Can they squeeze the juice for one more? We think so because the Beavers have controlled this series recently, winning three of the last four and the Ducks have gone home winless their last three trips to Corvalis.
The pick: Oregon State. Careful, State's Qizz Rodgers looks like a late scratch (shoulder).
Notre Dame +31 1/2 at USC—Normally we’d say you can name your score here, but here’s what you need to watch out for. The Oregon State game starts an hour earlier than USC’s. If Oregon State is winning handily, the Trojans might be disappointed they can’t go to the Rose Bowl. Might be. We’ll still look for the kill here.
The pick: USC.

Last week: 6-6-1; Season: 91-82-2
Best bets last week: 2-1; season:21-18

Second Thoughts
Posting early this week because many folks are traveling including us. Will do our best to keep the point-spreads current….Texas Tech needs to wake up fast because if they beat Baylor and Oklahoma loses in Stillwater, the Red Raiders go to the Big 12 title game, and Baylor looks easy to pass against…Virginia Tech only needs to beat Virginia to go to the ACC title game…Tulsa looks almost too good giving 14 at Marshall, which has been pathetic lately….Mississippi looks like a layup against Miss. State, which is banged up and about to make wholesale changes. ...Remember the idea is to eat the turkey, not to be one. Happy Thanksgiving!


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