Experience, Not Black Shirts, Will Lead Georgia over Alabama

After winning as easily as you could ask at Arizona State, Mark Richt’s Georgia team returns home to black shirts and a blacked-out crowd to prove its superiority once again over Alabama. Experience and a great quarterback should make the difference.

Last week our best bets went 2-1 (season: 8-4) and missed a perfect week when N.C. QB T.J. Yates went down with a 17-3 lead in the second half. The Tar Heels just gave up after that.

This week’s best bets: Miami, East Carolina and San Diego State.

Last week we gave you a five pack of teams we were betting against due to emotional letdowns expected. All five lost or failed to cover. This week, using the same angle, we’re going against Houston, North Carolina, Mississippi and San Jose State.


Saturday
Alabama +6 1/2 at Georgia—We’re going with the Bulldogs here because of the edge they have at quarterback and overall experience. Alabama is young and fast with a big defensive line, but expect Georgia to be able to run holes through that line to set up one of the best QBs in college football, Mathew Stafford.
The pick: Georgia, hopefully by more than a TD.

TCU +18½ at Oklahoma—The Sooners certainly remember TCU coming to Norman in ’05 and pulling off a 17-10 upset. This time there will be no taking them by surprise. Oklahoma has possibly the best team in the country on both sides of the ball, and TCU, while impressive against SMU, isn’t quite as good as the team that pulled the upset.
The pick: Oklahoma, which is on a roll and would love to bury the Frogs this time.

Mississippi +22 at Florida—While many are thrilled that Vanderbilt remained undefeated by upsetting Mississippi last week, there’s little doubt that Ole Miss gave the game away. With six turnovers, including a fumble as they were scoring the winning TD, the Rebels will remember this loss when bowl season comes around. And couple this loss with the heartbreaker they lost to Wake Forest two weeks ago, and you’ve got a team that will have a difficult time preparing for Florida.
The pick: Florida. Urban Meyer loves to roll it up.

North Carolina +7 1/2 at Miami—It looked like the Tar Heels were about to upset Virginia Tech last week, leading 17-3 in the second half, when QB T.J. Yates twisted his ankle and the Tar Heels just fell apart once their leader was gone. Now news comes that Yates is out 4 to 6 weeks, just as N.C. visits revenge-minded Miami.

After last week’s thrashing of Texas A&M and the fine showing they had at Florida, there’s no doubt the Hurricanes are much improved this year. And with the Tar Heels emotionally down it shouldn’t be too hard for Miami to make up for the defeat they suffered last year at North Carolina.
The pick: Miami (best bet).

Marshall +15 at West Virginia—After winning at Southern Miss and after taking a 14-0 lead at Wisconsin before falling, there’s no doubt that this Marshall team has found its stride. And it couldn’t have come at a better time because in-state rival West Virginia (at least Marshall thinks it’s a rivalry) looks ripe for the picking. The Mountaineers just don’t look right this season under new coach Bill Stewart. “Slow reacting” might be a better description for their performance at Colorado last week and against East Carolina before that.
The pick: Marshall. This line opened at 17, so we’re not the only ones who like the Herd.

Purdue +1 1/2 at Notre Dame—Here are two of the most unreliable teams in college football. ND opened a 3-point fave and the money rushed in on Purdue, probably because Purdue has a passing game, which is something the Irish are still trying to find. Purdue had Oregon on the ropes two weeks ago, which is a much better team than the pair that ND defeated.
The pick: Purdue.

Maryland +11 at Clemson—Clemson has righted its ship after Alabama gave them a wake up call in the season opener. But to beat Maryland you’ve got to throw the ball (the Terps are 109th in pass defense) and that’s not Clemson’s game. Maryland, on the other hand, is also improving rapidly and has won in Death Valley on two of its last three trips.
The pick: Maryland. Clemson will be missing its starting left tackle and starting left guard.

Cincinnati -10 1/2 at Akron—Unless Cincy goes into this game assuming its going to win easily, the Bearcats should win easily over an out-manned Akron team. It’s one thing beating Syracuse (which the Zips did a few weeks ago) and another handling one of the fastest teams in the country.
The pick: Cincinnati, which looked good with new QB Tony Pike.

Houston +10½ at East Carolina—This is a play against Houston as much as it’s one on East Carolina. The Cougars have now lost their last two games by three points each and saw a possible winning TD pass be intercepted in the final seconds last week against Colorado State. They're in no shape to play at East Carolina after those two defeats.

East Carolina lost its perfect season last week, but now can concentrate on winning the conference and shining for the bowl scouts. Too much speed and power awaits Houston.
The pick: East Carolina (best bet).

San Jose State +3 at Hawaii—San Jose looked sharp last week putting away San Diego State, but playing at Hawaii is another thing. The Warriors are one of the toughest home teams in all of college football, and until proven otherwise, we’ll take them when only laying three points. The Warriors play like a team possessed at home.
The pick: Hawaii, which also gets its starting QB back from the injured list.

Idaho +11 at San Diego State—The Aztecs, who tried to run the ball last week, will return to the short passing game (employed against Notre Dame) against Idaho. And what a welcome visitor Idaho is! The Vandals have lost 8 of their last 9 road games by 14 or more and lost that ninth game by 8 points. Their only victory this year was against Idaho State, which hasn’t had a winning record in five years.
The pick: San Diego State (best bet), which had a week off to get ready and a coach that needs a win.

Arkansas State -2 at Memphis—The bandwagon for the Red Wolves is getting louder each week. After easily defeating Middle Tennessee last week, Arkansas State now finds itself as a slight favorite on the road at Memphis. The Tigers lost two heartbreakers, to Rice and Marshall, before thrashing Nicholls State last week. Memphis has won only 3 of its last 13 home games against BCS opponents. And two of those were vs. UAB and SMU.
The pick: Arkansas State, which won at Texas A&M earlier this year.

Last Week: 8-6; Season: 33-22-1


Second Thoughts

On the surface, Penn State looks like a scoring machine, but Illinois has had a week off to get ready for this, and it could be a lot closer than most think….Virginia Tech has had one tough game after another, but the Hokies only seem to get tougher from it. This week they visit Nebraska, a team trying to find out how good they are under new coach Bo Pellini. Surprisingly, Tech is a TD underdog, a proposition that looks very inviting.

Texas should roll over Arkansas in a game postponed from a few weeks ago…Wisconsin goes into Michigan at a time when Wolverine coach Rich Rodriguez is still searching for the right men to play his offense. Don’t expect Michigan to figure it out this week….Colorado, although at a speed disadvantage, can upset FSU on the road this week. The Seminoles are feeling the heat all over from an offense that can’t get unplugged…. Both New Mexico and Washington State lost their starting QBs last week. For WSU, the news keeps getting worse because Oregon comes to town, a team playing its fourth QB of the year, but decidedly more powerful. As for New Mexico, the Lobos could find trouble at New Mexico State, which just won at UTEP last week.

Louisiana Lafayette might give Kansas State more than it bargained for when the game was booked. The LL boys nearly toppled Illinois two weeks ago….The line on Western Kentucky at Kentucky has dropped two points this week.

Follow the Money
This week the money has landed on the following teams:
Arkansas State has moved from pick 'em to -2 1/2 at Memphis....
Ball State has moved from -18 to -22 vs. Kent State despite losngWR/KR Dante Love....
Stanford's moved from +4 1/2 to +3 at Washington....
Marshall's moved from +17 to to + 14 1/2 at West Virginia....
New Mexico State moved from + 4 1/2 to +3 vs. New Mexico...
Oregon's moved from -19 1/2 to -21 1/2 at Washington State...
Penn State's gone from -14 to -15 1/2 vs. Illinois and
Maryland's moved from +12 to +10 1/2 at Clemson.



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