No Easy Road for Florida, Georgia

Both Florida and Georgia are up against tough road games this week. The two SEC top-fivers might find themselves out of the national picture if they can’t pull off a victory, and each is favored by at least a TD. Florida travels to Tennessee where the Gators have struggled their last two trips, and Georgia goes West for the first time this decade to take on Arizona State in a hostile situation.

Nothing Could Be Finer Than to Bet on Carolina

It looks like former Miami coach Butch Davis has himself a team at North Carolina this year. The Tar Heels speed was evident in their victory over Rutgers 10 days ago, and they’ll have a packed house when they host a down Va. Tech team this week.

We also like N.C. State, which is hosting a possibly over-confident East Carolina team Saturday. N.C. State coach Tom O’Brien is feeling the heat and we think his team will respond. This is a similar situation to the one Louisville had before thumping Kansas State Wednesday night.

There’s No Place like Home

This week 12 of our 14 picks are home teams. And in these six cases that follow, you’ll find a favorite theme of ours: going against a team coming off of a big emotional game—especially if they’re on the road. This week we’re going against Temple (lost on a Hail Mary), Mississippi State (lost 3-2 to Auburn, has LSU next), East Carolina (still coming down after two huge wins at home, visits a desperate N.C. State team), Middle Tennessee (lost in last second at Kentucky), and Ohio State (had lunch handed to them by USC, now hosts hungry Troy team).

This Week's Best Bets: North Carolina, BYU, Georgia Tech

This Week's Live Dogs: Tennessee, Arizona State, Auburn, Troy, Wake Forest, UCLA and N.C. State.

Saturday
Florida -7½ at Tennessee—Ever see Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer field questions at his Tuesday press conference? Nobody has ever looked more uncomfortable in a button down white shirt. And once more Fulmer has a reason to sweat: his job is on the line this week against Florida. Losing to UCLA was a bummer and beating up on UAB last week really didn’t help much. Fullmer needs to beat Florida to get a reprieve, and he usually finds a way when his back is to the wall.

Florida is good, mind you, but they’re still without a running game, and the return of Percy Harvin isn’t going to mean the holes will be open for him. Of course there’s nothing wrong with the Gator defense which held Miami to three points. But we think the Vols will have last year’s 59-20 drubbing by Florida on their minds, and they’ve played the Gators awfully tough the last two meetings in Knoxville, losing 21-20 in ’06 and winning 30-28 in ’04.
The pick: Tennessee. This is too many points to give the Vols at home with so much on the line.

Georgia -7 at Arizona State—Arizona State has had this game circled for months, which could be the reason they let UNLV slip past them last week. The Sun Devils may not be as good as last year’s team that opened the season 8-0, but they know they have a chance to earn respect back with a big national TV win over Georgia. The Bulldogs are solid on defense and may be better through the air than on the ground this week. But we’d be surprised if this one wasn’t close.
The pick: Arizona State.

LSU -2 1/2 at Auburn—Tommy Tuberville’s a great coach. He’s had Auburn in the national picture the last five years. He’s got a new offense that’s not working but his defense is carrying the day. In fact the Auburn defense has given up 20 points or less 23 of its last 29 games. And this match-up has been dead tight the last four meetings, with six points being the largest margin of victory. LSU’s supposed to be loaded again, but the feeling here is that somehow Auburn’s defense will get the job done.
The pick: LSU, considering that the home team has won every game in this series during this decade.

Troy + 20 1/2 at Ohio State—Expect the Buckeyes to be suffering a hangover after the trouncing they took at USC. And we don’t see Jim Tressel risking the season on bringing Beanie Wells back this week. So no Beanie means no running game and the experienced Troy defense can tee off on the OSU QBs.

Troy, on the other hand, is capable of an upset. They soundly defeated Middle Tennessee on the road in their opener and MTSU went on to beat Maryland and lose in the final seconds at Kentucky. And Troy coach Larry Blakeney has a history of playing tough against the big boys. Last year he scared the pants off Florida State and a few years back there was that historic upset of Missouri.
The pick: Troy.

Temple +28 1/2 at Penn State—Temple’s been through two straight heart-breaking losses and now must go on the road against a rival that’s looking to roll it up to move up in the polls. Al Golden might be a candidate someday for Paterno’s job, but this day he gets a lesson on recruiting.
The pick: Penn State.

Miami (Ohio) +11 1/2 at Cincinnati—Even without their No.1 quarterback, Dustin Grutza, Cincinnati’s athletes tower over Miami of Ohio’s. The Bearcats will go with 5th-year QB Tony Pike, who nearly won the job in spring practice. Cincy’s won this game big in three of the last four years and blew out the Redhawks (at Miami) last year. Speed rules the day.
The pick: Cincinnati, which has a coaching edge too with Brian Kelly.

Wyoming +27 1/2 at BYU—Okay, maybe BYU won’t be as sharp as they were taking UCLA apart last week. And maybe Wyoming won’t be as bad as they looked nearly losing to North Dakota State (needed a field goal at 0:04 to win it after trailing by 13), and if that’s the case and you get Wyoming’s best effort and BYU’s worst, the Cougars should still win by at least 30. Max Hall should be able to throw all day on these guys. Last year in this game he threw 40 times and was never touched. Look for 1,000 yards.
The pick: BYU (best bet). Last year the Cougars went through the motions for a 35-10 victory at Wyoming. Two years ago it was 55-7 back in Provo. Look for a similar score this time.

Mississippi State +7 1/2 at Georgia Tech—Georgia Tech’s defense has been a pleasant surprise and their option offense is coming together fast. It’s also a bitch to prepare for in five days. On top of that Miss. State is coming off of a brutally tough 3-2 loss to Auburn and is looking ahead to LSU next week. No way they’re ready for this one.
The pick: Georgia Tech (best bet).

Virginia Tech +3 at North Carolina—If Frank Beamer had kept Tyrod Taylor on the redshirt list for this whole year, he might be staring at losing record. Taylor is their speed on offense and their only running game. We can now see how much they miss WR Eddie Royal (lighting it up for Denver in the NFL), and the other QB, Sean Glennon, has lost his confidence.

North Carolina, though, is better than advertised and was much faster than Rutgers last week. And don’t forget that Rutgers recruited half of its team from Florida. It looks like the Tar Heels have arrived, and a victory at home over the Hokies would be huge for them.
The pick: North Carolina (best bet), which is a very solid home team. Last year the Tar Heels began this turn around by beating Miami at home.

Wake Forest +5 at Florida State—The last time QB Riley Skinner led a Wake Forest team into Tallahassee, the Demon Deacons won 30-0. Expecting revenge, the favored Seminoles lost again at Wake last year, 24-21. Unless FSU has improved tremendously, this should be a tight game again, and four points is too much to pass up.
The pick: Wake Forest.

Boise State +10 at Oregon—This line dropped from 12 because Oregon lost QB Justin Roper for a month. But Oregon is bigger and faster than Boise and is not going to get taken by surprise. The Ducks are still undefeated and have a good shot at a BCS bowl. Go with the speed. Oregon has lots of ways to beat you, especially at home.
The pick: Oregon.

East Carolina -7 at N. C. State—This is a very good East Carolina team. But after winning two huge, emotional games vs. Va. Tech and W. Va. at home, the Pirates took a breather and nearly lost at Tulane last week. What they did lose was their top LB, Quentin Cotton to knee surgery. Skip Holtz is sure to get their attention after the close call, but this is another road game against a team desperate for a win (see Cal vs. Maryland and Kansas State vs. Louisville). Tom O’Brien needs this very badly. The Wolfpack defense will find a way to pull it out, or at least keep it close.
The pick: N.C. State.

Arizona -3 1/2 at UCLA—This game opened at Pick ‘em and the bettors have jumped on Arizona ever since. UCLA suffered a huge letdown and big embarrassment at BYU last week. Now you can expect their best again. Last year the Bruins lost by 38 at Utah and came home and beat Washington by 13 a week later. Then after losing by 14 at pitiful Notre Dame, UCLA upset Cal by 9 at home.
And besides, I’m not sold on Arizona being that good yet, especially on the road. But somebody likes them to push the line this far in their favor.
The pick: UCLA, at home, where they shine.


Middle Tennessee State + 5 1/2 at Arkansas State—These are two very good teams, capable of beating most BCS schools on the right day. But Middle Tennessee is coming off of two very big emotional efforts, the latest a last-second, heartbreaking loss at Kentucky. Now they’re on the road again against a solid team. Something’s gotta give and we think it will be the Blue Raiders.
The pick: Arkansas State. The line began the week at 4½ and has gradually risen.


Second Thoughts

Season to date: 25-16-1; Last week: 5-9
Best Bets Season: 6-3; Best Bets last week: 1-2

Last week was a tough one for us, losing best bet Fresno State by a point after the Bulldogs had several chances to win the game, and also losing best bet Ark. State 27-24 after it looked like they might win it in the last two minutes. It was also no fun watching Boise go scoreless in the second half after building a 20-0 lead. Which leads me to the notion of taking double-digit favorites that you like and playing them in the first half. You can use this tool either instead of, or in addition to, your game bet. Why? Because how many times have you seen a big fave build a huge first-half lead and then cruise in the second half? Like Boise did last Saturday.

Despite the line dropping from over 14 to 11, we like UConn’s chance of rolling past Baylor Friday night. Baylor’s improved under Art Briles but they’re not ready to face this tough a running game and this good a defense…

Fresno’s another team in a tough spot going on the road after a tough loss…Utah line has shot up this week, despite Air Force’s impressive win at Houston….West Virginia has much to prove but it won’t be easy in the thin Colorado air against a Dan Hawkins team Thursday….Alabama might have a problem facing a hopped up Arkansas team under Bobby Petrino. Game could be a close one….And the Rutgers line has been going up like the Knights have already beaten Navy by two TDs.



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