USC to Make Buckeyes Latest Victim

Last Week: 9-4-1; Overall: 20-7-1
Best Bets: 2-1; Best Bets overall: 5-1
Underdogs 4-1-1 Dogs overall: 8-2-1

When USC hosts Ohio State Saturday night at the Coliseum, America will be treated to one the great settings for college football. With nearly 100,000 fans packing the 1932 Olympic stadium, with the SC band playing “Fight on for ol’ SC” (composed in 1922) while the Trojan horse and rider cavort around the track— well, there’s nothing quite like it.

And let’s not leave out those magnificent SC Song Girls. Hollywood is waiting in line when they graduate and half of them are first-round draft picks for “Deal or No Deal.” It’s tough to beat the atmosphere, unless, of course, you hate the Trojans. But that might be financial suicide this week.

We’re 20-7-1 (74%) going into this week, a record that might be tough to sustain. Regardless, we’re taking our best shots again this week. Here’s how we see the weekend shaping up:

Friday
Kansas +3 1/2 at South Florida—This was the hardest game of the week to pick. It comes down to Kansas being super sharp with Todd Reesing throwing the ball, and South Florida still somewhat focused on last Saturday’s UCF overtime game.

The Bulls are tough at home but lost two great CBs to the NFL, which will make their pass defense a little vulnerable to the Kansas attack. And even though they haven’t showed it yet, we think Mark Mangino’s team will be able to run a little on the Bulls, too.
The pick: Kansas for two reasons: (1) the 3 1/2 points, and (2) the Jayhwaks were 5-0 on the road last year.

Saturday
Ohio State +11 at USC—The Trojans, under Pete Carroll, are practically unbeatable at home in a big game. Sure they lost last year when they had a ton of injuries taking Stanford lightly. But in big games the last three years they have beaten UCLA, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Oregon, Cal and Arkansas, all by at least 14 points. In some cases by much, much more.

Not that we’re looking for a blowout of Ohio State, mind you. But even though we don’t think the Buckeyes are anywhere near what they appeared to be last week against Ohio, they do appear to be behind Southern Cal. And again, Carroll loves to win these games big.
The pick: USC (best bet). A 14-point margin will do.

Michigan -2 at Notre Dame—Both these teams have problems. Other than at quarterback, we know Michigan has plenty of talent out there. Not so sure about the Irish. Can’t believe they’d try to sandbag everyone by nearly losing to San Diego State.

It used to be you could never bet against Notre Dame as a home dog. Some people built mansions taking the Irish plus points in South Bend. But last year they lost six times at home, yes, six! And two of those losses were to Navy and Air Force. Until they prove otherwise, we can’t see any reason to take them in this spot.
The pick: Michigan.

Oklahoma -20½ at Washington—Bob Stoops couldn’t have picked a more perfect time to visit Seattle. The Huskies just lost a heartbreaker and will have a hard time focusing on the Sooners. The difference in speed between the two clubs is huge, so even with the home field we can’t see Washington hanging in there for more than a half.
The pick: Oklahoma.

Georgia Tech +6½ at Virginia Tech—Hokie coach Frank Beamer isn’t acting like a coach expecting to win. He’s acting more like a coach with problems. After losing their opener to E. Carolina and leading Furman only 3-0 at halftime, Beamer has muzzled both of his QBs and refuses to discuss the QB situation himself. Other problems facing Beamer: (1) his defense has just one sack in two weeks and (2) the Georgia Tech triple-option offense.

Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets looked good winning at Boston College. They’ll find that this team is faster, but it might not matter. They’ve got a quarterback in Josh Nesbitt, who can make up for a lot of mistakes.
The pick: Georgia Tech.

Cal –14 at Maryland—Maybe Ralph Friedgen can work a miracle for Maryland. After all, he’s supposed to be a terrific offensive coach, isn’t he? If he doesn’t find an effective QB soon, he might be an ex miracle worker. The Terps couldn’t score last year and, and losing 24-14 last week to Middle Tennessee just exposed their problems more.

Jeff Tedford must go to either track meets or jail breaks to recruit, because he’s got the fastest team we’ve ever seen at Cal. Last week, Washington State literally looked like it was nailed to the turf while the Bears ran wild (66-3). (See Jahvid Best’s 80 and 86-yard TD runs).
The pick: Cal. We hate laying double digits on the road but this just looks to good.

Wisconsin -2 at Fresno State—This is a night game at Fresno which means the entire city will shut down for this one. The Bulldogs don’t get “real” teams like Wisconsin to come to town that often, so coach Pat Hill had took a week off to get ready. Other BCS teams that visited haven’t fared well, with Oregon State and losing in ’06 and Kansas State getting burned last year. Only Oregon pulled out a 31-24 victory at Fresno.

Against Rutgers in the opener, the Bulldogs played well, especially against the run,
holding the Scarlet Knights to 106 rushing yards on 34 carries—an important stat considering Wisconsin’s strong ground game.

Wisconsin has played Akron and Marshall and been sloppy in the first half of both games, but has buried both opponents in the second half. P.J. Hill is still the big workhorse, so expect this one to be a slugfest.
The pick: Fresno State (best bet).

Stanford + 13½ at TCU—TCU has been flying under the radar. Their 26-3 victory at New Mexico in the opener was startling, because the Lobos are tough at home, and the Horned Frogs simply dominated. Beating a name opponent from a BCS conference like Stanford, has to be very appealing to TCU, which can make a statement with the win, similar to when they beat Texas Tech two years ago. And remember that TCU won a barnburner at Stanford last year, 38-36, and finished the year strong winning five of their last seven, losing close calls to BYU and Utah.

The Cardinal looked more like Stanford last week, falling apart in the fourth quarter at Arizona State. They’ll probably save their best efforts for the next three weeks when they have winnable games vs. San Jose State, Washington and Notre Dame.
The pick: TCU. This line opened at 12, so you can who the money likes.

Hawaii +13 at Oregon State—This will be short. Hawaii isn’t as bad as they looked against Florida and Oregon State hasn’t done anything to gain our confidence, getting killed by Penn State and losing the opener to Stanford. The Warriors still have plenty of athletes and love to throw the ball around.
The pick: Hawaii.

Bowling Green +16½ at Boise State—Quick, when is the last time Boise lost a game at home? Well, in the last six years Boise hasn’t lost a regular-season game at home, period. They did lose to Boston College a few years back in a bowl game played on their big blue field.
And when you consider that you’re giving a little over two touchdowns here, it’s comforting to know that the Broncos have won 35 of their last 40 home games by 16 or more. Yes, Bowling Green beat Pitt, and they also were soundly beaten at home last week by Minnesota. The only problem with taking Boise is they’ve got Oregon next week, and have to be looking ahead some.
The pick: Boise State, despite the look ahead, they’ve still got Ian Johnson running the ball and pretty tough defense.

Ball State -7 at Akron—It was no accident that Akron won at Syracuse last week. The Zips out gained the Orange in nearly every department including time of possession. The week before Akron played Wisconsin tough for a half, trailing just 17-10 at the break.

There’s no doubt Nate Davis has talented cast of offensive players around him at Ball State. But this is a sandwich game for the Cardinals, between their TV game against Navy and next week’s in-state rivalry with Indiana.
The pick: Akron, which has a solid record at home, especially as a dog.

Southern Miss +2½ at Arkansas State—A year ago the Arkansas State Red Wolves nearly won their opener at Texas. This year they did win at Texas A&M sending panic in Aggieland. The Red Wolves then followed it up with 83-10 mauling of Texas Southern while licking their chops waiting for Southern Miss to come to Jonesboro.

This is a classic situation of a supposed underdog circling a big-name BCS opponent, while that opponent, Southern Miss, had given its best shot the week before (at Auburn).
With QB Corey Leonard and RBs Reggie Arnold and Derek Lawson leading the way, Ark. State is out to prove the A&M win was no fluke.
The pick: Arkansas State (best bet).

Temple + 6 at Buffalo—After Buffalo kicked the crap out of UTEP, then played very competitively at Pitt last week, it’s obvious they’re a better team than Temple. The question is, can they focus on the Owls knowing they play at Missouri next week? We think the answer is yes.

Turner Gill is not about to let a victory slip out of the win column this year. He’s done a great job at Buffalo and came close to getting the Nebraska job. This year’s team is already good, getting better.

As for Temple, last week’s loss was a heartbreaker in OT to a hated rival, and it had to take a ton out of them. Can’t see them being ready for this game with the same enthusiasm.
The pick: Buffalo, with conviction.


Second Thoughts
A quick note on the games we analyze: Sometimes we might leave an attractive matchup off of our grid, like UCLA at BYU this week, simply because we don’t have a strong opinion. Other times we’ll use games between lesser known teams (Temple vs. Buffalo) because we do have a definite opinion. The object is to get you winners….

Iowa State travels to Iowa this week for its annual battle with the Hawkeyes. And before you jump to give the Cyclones 13½, consider this: Iowa State has scored 40+ in both of their games (2-0) and looked a helluva lot better thumping Kent State than Boston College did. Also, this game rarely is a blowout….Elsewhere, Oregon’s speed should overwhelm Purdue, but we’re still unsure about Oregon’s QB situation….

If Syracuse doesn’t make a significant stand against Penn State this week, coach Robinson may be able to remove the “coach” label from his shirts. Nearly a four TD favorite, don’t expect Joe Paterno to take pity on the ‘Cuse. It’s more likely his Lions may let down after looking at the game tapes of Syracuse losing at home to Akron last week or seeing them get trounced 30-10 at Northwestern two weeks ago….

Hosting Navy this week, Duke, surprisingly, is a slight favorite. One reason could be the improvement seen by the Blue Devils under new coach Dave Cutcliffe. Last week in an unfortunate loss to Northwestern, Duke doubled NW’s first downs 28-14 and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes….

Middle Tennessee crushed Maryland last week, 28-14. In a similar situation a year ago the Blue Raiders lost a barnburner with Louisville. This week they travel to Kentucky, a team who should not be caught by surprise at this point, but Middle Tennessee is still getting a juicy 16 points against a team that lost most of its offensive stars from last year.
UCLA looks tempting plus 8 at BYU, but until the Bruins show they can play tough on the road, will assume they’ll follow traditional patterns until Rick Neuheisel changes that.

Arkansas gained a lot of confidence winning its opening two games in the last minute. Only thing was, they were against pee-wee teams Western Ill. and U.L. Monroe. Texas, if not too over-confident, should win this going away, but this game has been rescheduled to be played two weeks from now, Sept. 27, due to Ike… If the Auburn line at Miss. State looks low its because the Tigers are probably looking ahead to LSU next week.

Take the over every week if Tulsa’s David Bryant can keep tossing six TDs like he did against N. Texas….Oklahoma State has found itself “a man” at WR in Dez Bryant, who caught nine balls last week for 236 yards and returned a punt for 71 more.







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