Off to a 12-3 Start; Look for Oklahoma & Nebraska to Roll

Last weekend:11-3 (9-1 through Saturday).
4 of the 5 dogs we picked won outright!
Best Bets : 3-0.

We already scored with our first best bet this week, Ball State.
Here's how the rest of the weekend shapes up:

You know it’s a lousy week for college football, when Miami at Florida is your headliner. Be careful, rain is forecast for most of the East Coast Saturday.

Saturday
Miami +23 at Florida—Florida looked fast in its victory over Hawaii. No surprise there. Miami has some issues to resolve. But this is a rivalry that might be played in a downpour (Hannah), so we’re inclined to take three plus touchdowns.
The pick: Miami, but not looking for an upset here.

Georgia Tech +6 1/2 at Boston College—Navy’s coaching loss in Tech’s gain. Paul Johnson has brought his option offense to Tech and the rest of the ACC better be ready.

B.C. looked good on defense vs. Kent but that was Kent, not Georgia Tech. The Eagles’ offense, however, looked very sluggish.
The pick: Georgia Tech, and if the rain reaches Boston, Tech’s chances should improve.

West Virginia -7 at East Carolina—This line has dropped after opening at 9 thanks to fans rushing to buy East Carolina after their stunning upset last week of Va. Tech. Pirate coach Skip Holtz is right to worry that his team might have a letdown, because most teams do in this spot.

The Mountaineers, who are loaded on offense once again with Patrick White and company, will not be caught off guard. Whether they can cover is another story, but we think they will.
The pick: West Virginia.

Cincinnati +22 at Oklahoma—Okay, so everyone is now in love with what Brian Kelly has done for the Bearcats. Last year was terrific and this year looks just as good. But this is Oklahoma we’re talking about, a team that loves to roll it up against out-manned competition, which Cincinnati is in this case.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet). This could be revenge against the Big East for the whipping West Virginia gave the Sooners last January.

San Jose State +27 at Nebraska—Okay, San Diego State isn’t terrible but they did need a last second TD to beat UC Davis last week, 13-10. Which means for 59:52 all they could muster against Davis were six points. And now they go on the road against one of the most prolific scoring teams in the country. Take a look how the Spartans did on the road last year against decent competition: lost by 42 at Arizona State, lost by 20 at Kansas State, by 37 at Stanford, by 30 at Fresno State and by 35 at Boise State.

Nebraska seemed to score at will last week against top MAC contender W. Michigan—a team good enough to defeat SDSU. With Bo Pelini now coaching Nebraska the defense will improve, and behind QB Joe Ganz the offense will thrive. In their last three games last year (all losses) Nebraska averaged 40 points per game.
The pick: Nebraska (best bet).

Texas Tech -10 at Nevada—This looks like a perfect upset situation for Nevada, but hold on. Yes, Nevada upset a good Texas A&M team in this same spot a few years ago. And yes, the Wolves are tough at home, losing by just two to both Hawaii and Boise State last year. But before you leap for these Wolves, check out their spotty secondary. Last week it gave up 225 yards in the air to Grambling State.

Tech, on the other hand, looks even better than last year’s bowl team. Behind QB Graham Harrell the Red Raiders rolled up nearly 700 yards against Eastern Washington last week. And if you’re thinking Tech might lie down on the road, consider they’ve covered five of their last six as a double-digit road favorite.
The pick: Texas Tech.

BYU -9 at Washington—Can Washington be this bad to be nearly a double-digit dog at home? If you saw them against Oregon you had to notice the lack of speed the Huskies had. Things don’t get any easier for Tyrone Willingham’s bunch because they play Oklahoma next week. So expect the Huskies to treat their home field as if it were the Alamo, and hold on for dear life.
The pick: Washington, reluctantly. This could be a very long season for the Huskies if they lose this one.

Texas A&M -2 at New Mexico—This looks like it could be disaster for A&M new coach Mike Sherman. After losing their opener to Arkansas State, the Aggies now take on the Lobos who shocked Texas Tech in a similar spot four years ago.

But consider this: The Lobos looked awful getting crushed by TCU 26-3 last week, at home no less, and Sherman knows his grace period with Aggie fans is over. He has to win this game and he’ll do it with defense because the Lobos’ offensive line is in trouble. After losing four starters from last year’s line, New Mexico gave up five sacks to TCU and can expect more of the same this week.
The pick: Texas A&M in a game both coaches need to win.

Mississippi +7 1/2 at Wake Forest—Mississippi looked sharp for Houston Nutt against Memphis last week and will have to crank it up a notch to stay with Wake. The Deacons looked sharp against Baylor, but they might be looking ahead to their game against Florida State next week. The weather might affect this game also.
The pick: Mississippi.

South Florida -13½ at UCF—Last year South Florida literally crushed UCF 64-12 in a backyard brawl. And that was after UCF had won at N.C. State and nearly beat Texas. It seems that the Bulls took it personally that UCF was trying to win the recruiting battle in mid-Florida.

Since then both teams have lost some sparkling talent, but UCF seems to have been hit the hardest, losing 2000-yard rusher Kevin Smith, who did an about face on the Knights after he said he was staying. It certainly showed in their sluggish performance stopping S. Carolina State 17-0 last week....Line drop from 14 due to Bulls' going without great RB Mike Ford, but with or without Ford, UCF can't match S. Florida's speed.
The pick: South Florida . Don’t expect last year’s 52-point victory, which was at South Florida, but three touchdowns or more wouldn’t be surprising—unless hurricane Hanna prevails.

Connecticut -7 at Temple—UConn looked sloppy in its victory over Hofstra last week, committing five turnovers. Temple looked good beating Army, but then again, who wouldn’t. Last year Temple should have beaten the Huskies on a last-second completion that the refs ruled out of the end zone. Replay showed it was good, however, but strangely wasn’t overturned. The Owls still have a bad taste from that one.
The pick: Temple. UConn might be looking ahead to its game with Virginia next week.

UAB +12½ at Florida Atlantic—If the rains don’t interfere too much, this should be a one-sided affair. Even in defeat at Texas, Florida Atlantic moved the ball, and they should be able to pass at will against UAB which has no pass rush. Last week at home UAB played Tulsa close for a half, then got buried in the second half, 45-22. This game looks even tougher for the Blazers.
The pick: Florida Atlantic. This line dropped from -14 when FAU announced the loss of their second defensive end this year to injury.

Stanford +14 at Arizona State—A reluctant vote for Stanford, which looks much improved under Jim Harbaugh. Stanford’s passing game should be able to exploit ASU’s spotty secondary. The question is, however, can Stanford’s defense hold off Sun Devil QB Rudy Carpenter?

Last week Carpenter looked good beating Northern Arizona, which everyone expected. However, there was no running game for the Sun Devils, whatsoever, and if they expect to cut down on last year’s total of 55 sacks allowed, they better find something more than Carpenter running 22 times for 28 yards (vs. N. Arizona).
The pick: Stanford.

Friday
Navy +7 at Ball State—Last year Ball State won in OT at Navy, with each team getting over 500 yards. This year Ball State's better, Navy's worse and Ball State has the home field plus a hopped up crowd with ESPN in town.
The pick: Ball State (best bet).

Last Week: 11-3; Overall: 11-3;
Double-Digit favorites: 5-0;
Underdogs: 4-1; Dogs that won outright: 4-1.

Second Thoughts
Last week all three of our best bets were big favorites and all three won. At this time of the season, mismatches are the rule and often the linemakers haven’t caught up with the players. In five of the seven double-digit games we analyzed this week, the favorite was our choice. And in three of those cases. On the other hand, the two underdogs we chose in those situations (Miami and Stanford) were reluctant picks. So you can see where our confidence lies.

Texas got a scare when it helped UCF open its new stadium last year, barely winning 35-32. We don’t expect the Longhorns to be caught off guard against this time at UTEP. But 27 is a lot of wood to chop on the road, especially against Mike Price who has sought to get every edge by starting the game at 9:15 El Paso time. Still, Price is going to need a frenzied crowd and effort from his team, which looks like it might have slipped another notch after getting blown out 42-17 at Buffalo last week. Or were the Miners simply looking ahead to this one?

Cal is nearly a two-TD fave at Washington State and even though laying those kind of points on the road is usually a death sentence, the Cougars look very bad this year. Losing 39-13 at home last week to Oklahoma State showed just how slow they are. And presuming they lose this game, if they don’t win at Baylor next week, Portland State might be the only winnable game on their schedule.

You figure Dave Wannstedt feels the heat and will turn it up at Pitt this week against Buffalo. But Turner Gill has Buffalo off to a fast start and those 13 points they’re getting look awfully big against a Panther team that’s liable to play tight.

Not sold on Notre Dame making this big reverse this year, although their schedule looks easier than any other BCS team around. And this week’s opponent, San Diego State, lost to Cal Poly last week.

The line has shot up from 15 to 16½ if you like Oklahoma State over Houston, but not so fast my friend. Houston’s not chopped liver. They’ve got a new spread attack with two strong quarterbacks to run it and a defense that’s pretty decent. Sure the Cowboys are fast, but they may have looked better than they are against Washington State.

Oregon State hasn't had much luck playing out of conference the last few years. They got killed visiting Louisville a few years ago and were left for dead at Cincinnati last year. They've also lost at Fresno and Boise State. Now they go to Penn State off a loss to Stanford, which looks like a receipe for another mauling. But I don't trust penn State that much.





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