Thursday, October 23, 2008

Shades of '78 for Paterno & Beano

It’s been quite a while since Penn State won a game in Columbus, 30 years to be exact. And they're 0-7 since that victory, Sept. 16, 1978. That's when Joe Paterno brought in an experienced Lion team and beat Woody Hayes in the season-opener 19-0. It marked the debut of Buckeye freshman QB Art Schlichter, who was intercepted five times. It was also the last time the Buckeyes lost a home opener. Then again, when you schedule teams from the MAC, there isn’t much chance of losing.

The day before that game, half a dozen college football enthusiasts from CBS Sports gathered round Beano Cook (then doing publicity for CBS) at Mike Manuche’s restaurant on West 52nd St. in Manhattan. (I was one of those lucky six). Beano was, and still is, one of the keenest college football minds around, which was why guys like Dan Jenkins and Paul Hornung would frequently crash his lunch.

A few years before (while at ABC) Beano told Roone Arledge if he moved the Texas-Arkansas game from September to the end of the season that they’d play for the national championship. Arledge did and they did, and President Nixon showed up to present the trophy. Only thing was, Penn State was also undefeated and got screwed. Neither Arledge nor Nixon cared.

The food at Manuche’s was good but the only reason the CBS staffers came to the lunch was to hear Beano’s picks, which usually were delivered with dessert. That day Beano predicted that Penn State, a six-point dog, would shut out Ohio State. He was so sure he guaranteed it. These were strong words, even from Beano.

Most of those in attendance made small bets on the Lions, but producer Bill Creasy, a high roller, said he would bet a small fortune. The next Friday, after Penn State's 19-0 whitewash, Creasy brought a guest to the lunch. It was a very sexy young lady in a skimpy dress and pig tails. Creasy planted her next to Beano.

“Beano,” Creasy said, “this is Maria.”
“Ooooh,” said Beano, as she grabbed him under the table. “I always liked pigtails.”


This week’s best bets: Auburn, LSU, and Tulsa.

Saturday's Breeders’ Cup picks are below.

Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10


Saturday
Penn State -2 at Ohio State—The Buckeyes need to play every bit as well as they did against Michigan State to stay in this game. Despite the winning streak at the Horseshoe they own over the Lions, this looks like a Nittany Lion team capable of overcoming history. Penn State has a better quarterback, better receivers, better special teams and more overall speed.
The pick: Penn State.

Oklahoma State +11½ at TexasDon’t look for Texas to ease off the throttle now. The Ok. State defense is made to order for Colt McCoy, who should be able to avoid any rush the Cowboys throw at him. If Texas is to have a slip it might come next week at Texas Tech. This could be another mismatch.
The pick
: Texas.

USC-15 at Arizona
As dominant as USC seems to be, they’re quite ordinary on the road in the Pac 10. Before last week’s 69-0 win at Washington State, the Trojans only covered in three of their previous 10 conference road games, losing four outright. It’s because everyone gets up for USC and there will be no difference at Arizona. The Wildcats have become believers after pounding Cal last week, and need to beat USC to stay in a first-place tie for the Pac-10 lead.
The pick:
Arizona.

Georgia +1 at LSU
Under Mark Richt the Bulldogs have been sensational on the road, winning 17 of their last 21 games away from home, but they didn’t win on their last trip to Baton Rouge. It might be easier to win in Iraq than at LSU at night, and trying to win with an offensive line missing most of its starters is asking too much. LSU showed a huge improvement last week and its defense should dominate the Bulldogs.
The pick:
LSU (best bet).

Wake Forest +2½ at MiamiAll of a sudden Wake can’t score. In their last four games the Deacs have averaged 10 points a game against so-so competition. Miami, on the other hand, looks like its got the better athletes and momentum on its side.
The pick
: Miami.

Texas Tech +1 at Kansas
Even though Tech is ranked in the Top 10, it can’t seem to get its defense off the field very often, causing games against Texas A&M and Nebraska to be much closer than necessary. No fault of the Red Raider offense which seems to move the ball the length of the field every time they get it.

Kansas’ offense is similar to Tech’s but not quite as potent and its defense is about equal. After getting beat up last week at Oklahoma, and with state rival Kansas State ahead next week, KU might not be as sharp or as healthy as they’d like to be. Tech may also be looking ahead to a visit from Texas next week in Lubbock.
The pick
: Texas Tech, if they can make their PATs this week.

Va. Tech +6 at Florida State
Still not convince FSU is as good as everyone seems to think they are, but there are some flashes, especially at quarterback, where a running QB makes a world of difference. Tech looks very one dimensional on offense this year, with cracks showing on defense and special teams.
The pick:
Florida State.

Baylor +13 at Nebraska
This is Baylor’s second straight road game after getting pounded by Ok. State last week, 34-6, with Missouri to look forward to next week. Brutal. Nebraska has found its center and is running the ball up everyone’s throat like the old days. Bylor’s improved but they’re also beat up.
The pick:
Nebraska.

Mississippi -6½ at ArkansasOle Miss left it all on the field last week at Alabama, and if they didn’t leave it there it was deposited at Florida two weeks earlier. This has been a brutal stretch for the Rebels, with this being their thirds road game in four weeks, with Auburn up next. Can’t see a similar effort coming this week against an Arkansas team that’s vastly improved.
The pick: Arkansas.

SMU +12 at Navy—
After playing Tulsa closer than anyone in a 37-31 loss, and losing last week in the last minute to Houston, 44-38, playing Navy on the road has to be a tall order for a team that’s drained both physically and mentally. Only a back-door cover can slow down the Midshipmen in this spot.
The pick:
Navy.

Bowling Green +7 at N. Illinois
Northern Illinois has quietly put together a nice resume this year. They’ve won four of their last five with the lone loss a 13-9 defeat at Tennessee. During that five-game span the Huskies D gave up a total of 36 points. After a fast start BG has lost 4 of 6, with inexplicable home losses to E. Mich. and Miami (Oh). Now with starting QB Chandler Harnish back in the saddle, N. Ill. should roll.
The pick
: Northern Ill.

C. Michigan -3½ at Toledo
Central Michigan is getting better by the week, while Toledo seems to be falling apart. With QB Dan Lefevour sidelined, Brian Brunner took over and went 20-28 vs. foe Western Michigan for 346 yards and a TD. No problem.
The pick
: Central Michigan.

Sunday
UCF + 23½ at Tulsa
This looks like a revenge game for Tulsa, who lost twice last year to UCF, including in the Conference USA title game. Last week, trailing 28-21 to a UTEP team fresh from three straight wins, Tulsa, buried them, 77-35. In fact in their four home games this year Tulsa has averaged 65 points. Don’t see how UCF can keep up, unless Tulsa lets down.
The pick:
Tulsa (best bet).

Thursday
Auburn +3½ at West VirginiaAuburn is one of the best road teams around. Under Tommy T. they’ve won 10 of their last 13 on the road outright. Tuberville has had 12 days to improve his offense since changing coordinators. West Virginia continues to disappoint, even in victory.
The pick: Auburn (best bet). WV hasn’t seen a defense this fast.

Last week: 9-5; Season: 60-51-1
Best bets: 2-1; Season: 14-10

Second Thoughts
After a second straight week going 9 and 5 we’ve pulled 9 points ahead of the Mendoza Line. Last week it didn’t pay to follow the late money. Five of the six teams we listed that had late moves of one point or more, failed to cover.

Can’t see Boise losing to San Jose, and they should win by more than a TD…Alabama without Cody is an offense looking for direction. The defense is still solid and so is Tennessee’s, so look for a close, low-scoring game….Pitt should handle Rutgers, now that the Panthers have a ton of confidence….Oregon, despite a mediocre passing game, should still keep Arizona State safe….

Louisville
had a nice comeback last week vs. Middle Tennessee, but this South Florida they’re playing which is 3-0 on the road this year…Look for Vandy and Duke to have a game over 70 unless weather plays a roll…Indiana, of all teams, is taking money vs. Northwestern…It looks like Virginia’s three-game winning streak might be in trouble at Georgia Tech this week... Colorado doesn’t have the people to either cover or put pressure on Missouri. Look for a blowout at Mizzu.

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup
Twenty-four years ago I was part of a small, elite team that put the first Breeders’ Cup together. I worked closely with founder John Gaines and Hall of Fame trainer John Nerud to try and accomplish their goal of creating a year-end spectacular for their sport. They wanted to have the best horses in every category (dirt, grass, sprinters, distance, male, female) compete, and then rotate this great event at race tracks all over the world. Until this year, that his been the case.

What they didn’t have in mind was having some of the best dirt horses in the world avoiding the event because the so-called “dirt races” were being run on a synthetic surface that played like grass. They didn’t have in mind great trainers like Nick Zito staying back in New York and not sending a single horse to compete.

But that’s what this 25th edition of the Cup has come to at Santa Anita this year (and next). If Curlin doesn't win the Classic there will be a ton more staying home next year. For handicappers, picking horses on synthetic surfaces is like throwing darts. The Cup will experience a handle drop off, next year, if not this one too, because of the uncertainty of the surface. The message here is to go easy on races that are not run over the turf.

Marathon— Zappa, Delightful Kiss, Sixties Icon

Turf Sprint— Fleeting Spirit, Salute the Count, Diabolical

Dirt Mile—First Defense, Well Armed, Pyro

Mile—Goldikova (best bet), Whatsthescript,, Prescious Kitten

Juvenile—Square Eddie, Pioneer of the Nile, Munnings

Juvenile Turf—Bittle Road, Skipdate, Grand Adventure

Sprint—Midnight Lute, Fabulous Strike, Lewis Michael

Turf—Soldier of Fortune, Winchester, Eagle Mountain

Classic—Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator, Go Between, Curlin, Student Council, Duke of Marmalade





















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