Is Texas at the End of its Rope?

After taking the last five encounters, you might think that Texas' Mack Brown owns Texas Tech's Mike Leach. Maybe so, but maybe the BCS title trail will end here, in Lubbock, for the Longhorns this time.

For all practical purposes, Texas should beat Texas Tech on any given year. Texas is a national school with a great salesman leading it in Brown who has recruiting tools that are unmatchable. Tech has a brilliant coach and a shoestring budget.

But somehow Tech has been competitive. They beat Texas in '98 and '02 and should have beaten them two years ago in Lubbock after building a 21-0 lead. They lost that game 35-31, getting shutout in the second half.

This time should be different. This time Texas doesn't have the running game to control the clock, or the secondary to match up. This time Leach's pirate mentality may lead to the upset he's been striving for. One that could propel his team to an undefeated season. Reagardless, we like the Red Raiders chances Saturday night.

This week's best bets: Florida, Tulsa and Virginia.

Saturday
Texas -3 1/2 at Texas Tech—In case you haven’t noticed, Texas Tech is awfully hard to defend. Even for No.1 Texas, and especially at Lubbock. This year should be no exception. With the Longhorns coming down from three straight brutal battles, and with Tech looking forward to this game all year, this could be the end of the trail for Texas.
The pick: Texas Tech.

Florida -6 1/2 vs. Georgia—LSU couldn’t take advantage of Georgia’s weakened offensive line, but Florida will. Outside of Tulsa, Florida is probably the fastest team in the country. And the Gators have a defense that even Georgia will have hard time scoring against. If Georgia gives up 38 points and 500 yards (as vs. LSU) you can put as fork in their season.

Urban Meyer got a break in the schedule with Kentucky last week, making it easy for Florida to build up to this game. And other than their one-point loss to Mississippi, the Gators have beaten everyone by 23 or more. With the emphasis on or more.The Gators are also reminded of Georgia's bad-mannered celebration last year.
The pick: Florida (best bet).

Oregon +2 1/2 at Cal—This is a huge game with Pac-10 title ramifications. The last two years the visitor has come out on top and Oregon should make it three in a row. Cal’s passing game isn’t that big a threat and the Ducks are running better than anybody. It will be close making the 3-point take all the more attractive.
The pick: Oregon.

Auburn +6 1/2 at Mississippi—Hate to give an Auburn road team this many points but last week’s loss at West Virginia showed just how bad Auburn can be. The Tigers have huge problems scoring and their defense installed the bullfighter defense in the second half. Meanwhile, Ole Miss’ defense has been terrific and QB Jevan Senad is very underrated. At 4-4 this is a must win if the Rebels want to have a shot at a bowl game.
The pick: Mississippi.

Miami +2 at Virginia—Virginia’s hot, taking four in a row and playing great defense. Now the Cavs return home against a Miami team that's won three in a row but struggles on the road. Last week’s Virginia win at Georgia Tech was strictly a case of team that believes in itself. That’s powerful stuff to go against if you’re a team, like Miami, without much offense.
The pick: Virginia (best bet).

Northwestern +7 at Minnesota—Tim Brewster’s done an incredible job turning around Minnesota’s program and now the Gophers have a chance to finish 11-1, believe it or not. We should have seen it coming last year when they lost 28-27 to Penn State. Now at 3-1 in the Big 10 and fresh off two straight triumphs at Illinois and Purdue, Minnesota can take control at home against a depleted Northwestern team. The Wildcats are coming off a tough defeat at Indiana and also lost their top offensive threat, RB Tyrell Sutton, for the season. NW starting QB Bacher is also questionable with a leg injury.
The pick: Minnesota.

West Virginia -3 1/2 at Connecticut—West Virginia finally woke up in the second half last week against offensively-challenged Auburn, but has been anything but stellar on the road this year, losing at East Carolina and Colorado. UConn, though, looks tougher than ever at home—where they’ve won 10 straight—especially now that they’ve found an efficient QB in 20-year-old freshman Cody Endres. The Huskies are also tough on D, yielding less than 13 a game this year.
The pick: Connecticut, which took a 66-21 pasting last year.

Tulsa -7 at Arkansas—This game means everything to Tulsa and very little to Arkansas. The Golden Hurricanes are 8-0 and trying to get some recognition. They also lead the country gaining over 17 yards for every completed pass. They’re probably the fastest team in the country and when they strike it’s like watching a blur. Arkansas had its big games losing to Alabama, Texas, Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi. The last two were very tough defeats. Can’t see them getting up for this one. This is also a revenge game for Gus Malzahn, Tulsa’s offensive guru who wasn’t allowed to do his thing at Arkansas.
The pick: Tulsa (best bet).

Pitt +4½ at Notre Dame—This could be a slugfest with each team scoring in the 30s, but the question that surrounds Pitt's QB situation (QB Stull was knocked out) makes this decision easier. The Panthers also lost their starting center for the season. Notre Dame believes in itself again and must be licking its chops waiting to attack the Pitt secondary.
The pick: Notre Dame.

Arizona State +15 1/2 at Oregon State—Arizona State is falling apart and on the road, while Oregon State is fighting for the Pac-10 title. The Beavers shouldn’t have any trouble with this visitor with so much at stake.
The pick: Oregon State. This line opened at 12 and has shot up since.

Washington State +30 at Stanford—Washington State has lost all seven of its FCS games by anywhere from 26 to 69 points this year, and the spreads have been increasing recently. Maybe the week off helped the poor Cougars. But Stanford can pound the ball as well as anybody, and teams with a running game have taken them apart.
The pick: Stanford.

Temple +7 at Navy—Temple’s had a hard time putting points on the board this year and will find it even more difficult with Navy controlling the clock. The Midshipmen get senior starting QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhadaback this week, just in time for Senior Day. A win makes Navy officially bowl eligible as well. The Owls got some experience defending the option by beating Army in the season opener, but Navy’s triple option is much harder to stop.
The pick: Navy.


Last week: 8-6; Season: 68-57-1
Best Bets Season: 15-12; Last week: 1-2

Second Thoughts
Going with just 12 games on the board this week; games we really like rather than adding some games of interest without a strong opinion…Last week 10 out 13 teams that saw twp-point moves in their direction or more, covered! This week’s two-point plus money movers so far are: Kent, Virginia, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Army, Kansas State and Arizona State…

Nebraska is coming together and should be able to score on the Sooners with MLB Reynolds sidelined…Iowa should take advantage of bye week and add to its momentum against a suddenly struggling Illinois team…Texas A&M suddenly has a passing game just in time Colorado’s leaky secondary….Michigan, showing signs of improvement might upset a Purdue team that’s thrown in the towel….

It’s hard to like Cincy Thursday night when their offense is built around the QB and their QBs keep getting hurt. USF will not have anything close to a cakewalk, as Bearcats play super athyome especially at night on ESPN…BYU might get more than they expected at Colorado State this week… Look for Georgia Tech to bounce back vs. FSU. The Seminoles still make too many big mistakes for my money….Rice’s QB Chase Clement should be able to light up UTEP secondary, even in El Paso…If East Carolina wants to go to a decent bowl they’re going to have to beat UCF convincingly…

Even with Spiller coming back, can't see Clemson pulling together. This team is a head case that tried for a little while for the new coach at home but lost. Now they go up to Boston where they'll probably curtsy and lay down. B.C. needs it much more and should win handily....Like Army’s chance getting 9 at home from Air Force in a big rivalry game…. Liked Utah State’s chances against a bumbling Hawaii team, but the Aggies are still crying in their beer after losing last week on a 58-yard FG by Fresno State as time ran out. They also lost both first and second team centers in that game to MCLs.

The Urban Meyer Sportsmanship Award
With Florida already leading Kentucky 49-3 in the second half (last Saturday) Urban Meyer allowed Tim Tebow to stay in the game. Tebow proceded to lead Florida on a 16-play, 78-yard scoring drive in which he passed SIX TIMES, and ran the ball twice, pushing the score to 56-3.

Was Meyer afraid he'd slip in the polls? What the hell are his starters doing in the game with the score 49-3? Does Meyer have it in for Kentucky that much? It's one thing to play to win and it's another to play to humiliate.





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