Alabama better not look past Mississippi either. The Tide just has to look back a few weeks to see what Ole Miss did to a Florida team that took them for granted.
This week’s best bets: TCU, Texas, and Michigan State.
Saturday
Missouri +4 at Texas—Missouri’s defensive flaws were exposed by Ok. State which Texas is sure to take advantage of. Missouri has to be deflated after seeing its perfect season and hold on the Big 12 race go down the drain. And while Texas is also coming from an emotional situation, the Longhorns usually take care of business the week following Oklahoma, winning the last three years by an average of 34.
The pick: Texas (best bet).
Mississippi +12 at Alabama—Both teams have had a week off to get ready but Alabama might overlook Ole Miss. And even though Mississippi looked past Vanderbilt, expect the Rebels to come just as prepared as they were at Florida. This game has gone down to the wire the last three years, with Tide winning all three by just a FG.
The pick: Mississippi.
Michigan +24 1/2 Penn State—I’ve never seen Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez this depressed. Losing to Toledo has to be depressing but at least he can point to this week’s game as a measuring rod. Too bad Paterno hates Michigan and loves to roll it up when given the chance. It doesn’t matter that Ohio State is next for the Lions.
The pick: Penn State.
Ohio State -3 1/2 at Michigan State—On the other hand, Ohio State is certainly looking ahead to next week’s game with Penn State in Columbus, which is a mistake, because Michigan State is a worthy foe and at it’s best right now. The Spartans domination of Notre Dame and at Northwestern (last week) was impressive. Also, the Buckeyes don’t exactly have the offense tuned up, collecting a measly 222 total yards against a Purdue team, not known for defense.
The pick: Michigan State (best bet).
Vanderbilt +15 at Georgia--Vandy has given Georgia fits the past two seasons. Two years ago with a record of 2-4 Vandy came to Athens and pulled off a 24-22 shocker. Last year Georgia needed a FG on the game's final play to avoid overtime. With Vandy still needing another win to become bowl eligible, the Commodores will come in confident, knowing they match up well with the Bulldogs.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Kansas +19 1/2 at Oklahoma—Instincts say #4 Sooners will bounce back and focus on chance to make BCS title game, which means winning impressively. Kansas had made to order defense for Oklahoma, if the Sooners can keep their heads in the game after tough loss at Red River. Betting that Stoopos can get them back on track.
The pick: Oklahoma. Game opened at 18.
LSU -2 at South Carolina—This is a perfect situation for the Gamecocks. LSU, which we were never impressed with this year, is coming off of a beating by rival Florida, and is sure to come to Columbia down and out. The Gamecocks, which feature a terrific defense, also have found a quarterback in Stephen Garcia, who led them on two scoring drives in the second half last week. Finally with a QB he can trust, Spurrier is much more dangerous.
The pick: South Carolina.
Georgia Tech -2 at Clemson—Maybe the firing of Tommy Bowden will clear the air at Clemson and allow the Tigers to get back to winning. Maybe new coach Dabo Swinney can get his team’s focus. However changing coaches on a week Clemson has to prepare for Georgia Tech’s tough defense and difficult triple option, doesn’t seem like a good idea. Goodbye focus.
Last week Tech looked awful with third-string QB Calvin Booker running their option. But both first and second team QBs, Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw, are back this week to run the attack, which will make it much more difficult to cover.
The pick: Georgia Tech. Game opened with Tech a 1½ point dog.
Virginia Tech +3 at Boston College—B.C. is coming into its own behind versatile QB Chris Crane. They are also a very tough team to beat at home, having disposed of every opponent but Florida State over the last three years. Tech has built a solid resume but lacks the explosiveness the Eagles can bring to the table.
The pick: Boston College. There’s no place like home.
North Carolina -4 1/2 at Virginia--Virginia has all of a sudden come together, with its defense being the strength of the team. The Cavs have upset both Maryland and East Carolina at home and now take on the Tar Heels without Brandon Tate, who has been the heart of the team. See another upset here.
The pick: Virginia.
UTEP + 18 at Tulsa—This has been a close game the last four years, with three of the contests decided by three points or less. While Tulsa's offense is one of the best around, its defense has been mediocre. The last two games Tulsa’s yielded nearly 500 yards each to Rice and SMU. UTEP, on the other hand, is hot, winning three straight over UCF, Southern Miss and Tulane.
The pick: UTEP. This could be a huge upset.
Colorado State +21½ at Utah—With the focus on BYU at TCU this week, Utah needs to remind everyone that they’re going to have to be dealt with too in the Mountain West. The Utes won’t have another chance to impress until they meet TCU in three weeks, so winning the easy ones big is a must. Also can’t see the Rams coming up with a big effort after leaving it all on the field in 13-7 loss to TCU.
The pick: Utah.
Middle Tennessee +14½ at Louisville—Middle Tennessee has been anywhere from respectable to brilliant this year, and always seems to be ready for the big games, upsetting Maryland and coming with a yard of doing the same at Kentucky. This week they face a Louisville team that gave up nearly 500 yards to Memphis last week, and hasn’t scared anyone with their attack to date.
The pick: Middle Tennessee. It means a lot more to them than to the Cardinals.
Thursday
BYU-1½ at TCU—If TCU can put pressure in Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, they can get to BYU’s Max Hall. BYU’s defense is pretty good in its own right, but the Horned Frog’s running attack will control the clock and the game. This is TCU’s season.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
Last Week: 9-5; Season: 51-46-1
Best Bets: 2-1; Season: 12-9
Second Thoughts
Got back on track last week going 9 and 5, although Texas pick was predicated on the Longhorn D and Colt McCoy playing well. Colt held up his end, at least.
Leaning toward N.C. State Thursday night at home vs. Florida State since the Wolfpack were very respectable at home vs. B.C., but can’t force a bet on a dog I don’t think can win the game. However, NC State has split the last six with FSU and only last year's loss was settled by more than 10.…Boise looking for revenge Friday against Hawaii, but 25 is a lot of wood against a team that can score….
Arizona blew one last week to Stanford and needs this game vs. Cal. The Bears aren’t nearly as effective on the road unless they’re playing Washington State…As improved as Duke has looked, they don’t have the athletes to match up with Miami…
Money Moves
Late money has poured in on the following teams: Duke (vs. Miami), Missouri (vs. Texas), Stanford (vs. UCLA), South Carolina (vs. LSU) , Troy (vs. FIU), and for the second week in a row Western Michigan (vs. Central Michigan).
Army on a two-game tear getting bundle at Buffalo. Cadets are perfecting that triple option offense which is getting tough to defend…. Stanford has become the best running team in the Pac 10 and might be too physical for UCLA…With extra time to prepare Pitt has a much better chance of figuring out Navy’s offense, which it failed to do last year.
Hard to imagine Texas Tech not having easy time scoring consistently against A&M, but have been burnt too many times laying this many on the road. Though double-didgit home dogs are no better than 50% this October.... Purdue has crushed Northwestern the last two years and has been impressive defensively the last weeks vs. Penn State and Ohio State, yielding just three offensive TDs total against the pair....Northern Ill. gets starting QB Chandler Harnish back vs. Toledo.
--30--
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