McCoy, Texas D to Pull Upset

This stands to be one of the better shootouts at the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. Only thing is, it might not be a shootout at all with both teams sporting two of the best defenses in the country. We look for Texas’ Colt McCoy to pull the game out after a defensive struggle. With No.1 in the nation at stake, expect a barnburner.

The other huge game has LSU at Florida and if things aren’t hard enough for teams going into the Swamp, an LSU lineman is bragging that they’ll take Tebow out if they can. The Gators don’t really need any more help.

This week’s best bets: Texas Tech, Army and Florida Int’l


Saturday
Texas +7 vs. Oklahoma—Last year’s 28-21 Oklahoma victory was the only one in the last six of this series to be as close as 7 points, meaning the chances that the spread comes into play are slim. Regardless, both teams have great defenses and great passing games. The Sooners seem to have the better running game, and that could be the difference. However, Oklahoma’s punting and punt coverage has been poor, which could cost them the game.

Both teams are win by huge scores and have top-five rated sack patrols. Oklahoma might have an edge for playing better competition in Cincinnati and TCU. This is a tough call but we’re going with Texas, which has a more versatile offense behind Colt McCoy.
The pick: Texas. Maybe the points will come into play, after all.

LSU +6 1/2 at Florida—LSU has far from impressed this year, and you can’t say they looked great beating offensively-challenged Auburn. Florida still lacks a credible running game but no one is cleverer than Urban Meyer figuring ways to get around that. And no one likes to cover more than Meyer, too.
The pick: Florida.

Penn State -6 at Wisconsin—Last week’s loss to Ohio State might not be as devastating to the Badgers’ Big Ten hopes as you think. A win here over Penn State puts them right back in the race. As for Ohio State, they still have to play Penn State and Michigan and travel to Illinois and Michigan State—a schedule that could easily provide two defeats.

Penn State has been tremendous both home and away, but with Michigan and the Buckeyes on tap after this, the Lions might not take Wisky that seriously. Which would be a mistake because Wisconsin won 16 straight at home before losing to Ohio State.
The pick: Wisconsin. Penn State has gotten destroyed its last two visits to Madison.

Tennessee +12 1/2 at Georgia—Going out on a limb here with Fullmer who usually comes through when his back is to the wall, and believe me Tennessee’s backs are rubbing up against it. The Vols, for all their woes, are still fifth in the nation in Total Defesne, and have thumped Georgia the last two years. Despite terrible offense and poor punting stats, going with Vols.
The pick: Tennessee.

Oklahoma State +14 at Missouri—It’s hard not to be impressed with Missouri. Last week the Tigers ended a 30-year hex by blowing out Nebraska at Lincoln. Considering how defenseless Nebraska looks this year, the only decent team the Tigers have faced is Illinois.

The Cowboys have played a schedule easier than Little League, and have dispatched them all, as expected. QB Zac Robinson is very effective and under the radar of most fans. Would be surprised if Ok. State doesn’t make a game of this, and with Mizzu looking ahead to Texas next week, an upset is possible.
The pick: Oklahoma State.

Vanderbilt -2 1/2 at Mississippi State—Vanderbilt never had it so good. Ranked and getting games on TV right and left, the Commodores are undefeated and looking forward to a bowl game this year. But waiting at the toll gate is Mississippi State, fresh from a week off to prepare and with a defense that can pull off the upset.
The pick: Mississippi State.

Colorado +14 at Kansas—Can’t be more impressed with Kansas after coming back from 0-20 deficit to win at Iowa State last week. The Buffs have been blown out by Florida State and Texas the last two weeks and now travel to pass-happy Kansas. Good thing Dan Hawkins secured pact extension early. Could be another rough day for the Buffs.
The pick: Kansas.

South Carolina -3 at Kentucky—This game features two of the best defenses in college football. The Gamecocks are coming off of a nice upset at Mississippi, catching the Rebels while still in celebration mode after beating Florida. And S.C. has been consistently good on the road for Steve Spurrier.

Kentucky, though, holds a slight defensive advantage, and has a big edge in net punting, turnover margin and yards penalized. Added up, it’s the difference between winning and losing.
The pick: Kentucky.

Nebraska +21 at Texas Tech—Bo Pellini’s team was embarrassed last week and is sure to try its best in Lubbock Saturday. And maybe the Red Raiders will go easy figuring they don’t have to do much against a team this bad. But don’t count on it. Mike Leach loves to roll it up and the last time Nebraska came to Lubbock (’04) the Huskers got pasted 70-10. This game features a team that that attacks and scores from multiple formations vs. a team that can't tackle and can't cover the pass. This looks too easy.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet).

Iowa State +5 at Baylor—Can’t see Iowa State showing up with any effort this week after heartbreaking loss at home to Kansas seven days ago. And Baylor, even in defeat, still moved the ball against Oklahoma. Like the Bears’ chances against a team that's lost 13 straight on the road. The pick: Baylor. Line has shot up after opening at 3.

Tulsa -24 at SMU—Here’s a meaningless stat: Tulsa is last in the country in field goals because they’ve only attempted three all year (making two). Probably because they get a TD most possessions. The Golden Hurricane is 5-0, winning each game by 23 or more. SMU likes to throw the ball and will get its points, too. But with nation’s 111th ranked pass defense, can’t see SMU slowing down Tulsa’s 5th rated pass attack. But beware, line fell from 25 to 24.
The pick: Tulsa.

Eastern Michigan +1 at Army—Love Army’s chances now that season is turning for them. The Cadets ended a 10-game losing streak with a 44-13 win at Tulane last week, after nearly pulling off an upset at Texas A&M the week before. Eastern Mich is still celebrating its upset over Bowling Green last week, and cares a helluva lot more about beating Akron next week than it does about the Army. Perfect setup for the Cadets to make it two in a row.
The pick: Army (best bet).

Middle Tennessee +2 at Florida Int’l—Hard to find a more improved team than FIU these days. The Golden Panthers are coming off of two impressive road victories at Toledo (35-16) and North Texas (42-10).That was after staying close to South Florida in a 17-9 defeat. Middle Tennessee is probably still talking about its Hail Mary win over Florida Atlantic and looking forward to playing Louisville next week. Love FIU in this spot.
The pick: Florida International (best bet).

Thursday
Clemson +2½ at Wake Forest—Clemson’s smoked Wake each of the last two years and needs this one badly. After beating Mississippi and FSU, Wake players figured all they needed to do was show up to beat Navy. Wrong. I’m sure Jim Grobe has their attention again, but can they reverse the hold Clemson’s had on them? No. Also, Wake two-way kicker Swank is limited which might be the difference.
The pick: Clemson.

Season: 42-41-1; Last week: 6-8
Best Bets season: 10-8; Last week: 1-2


Second Thoughts

It’s been a tough few weeks but we’re hanging in there above the Mendoza Line and expect to rebound starting with this week’s picks. Note: the first six games listed this week are games of national interest and are chosen with less conviction than the last eight.

This is Southern Miss’ season. Under new coach Larry Fedora (ex Ok. State off. coord.) the Golden Eagles have shown transition problems after 17 years under Jeff Bower. After losing at home to two middle of the road teams (Marshall and UTEP), it’s hard to believe the Golden Eagles can make a game of it against Boise. The Broncos might feel they can ease off the pedal here, but look again. They’ve got to win big every chance they have to stay up in the ratings. And Southern Miss is the biggest name they face until their final game against Fresno. With nothing but patsies left on their schedule, another impressive win here is a must.

You figure Iowa should beat Indiana but it could be a tough spot for the Hawkeyes after three mentally tough games in a row…North Carolina is flexing its muscles but might find Notre Dame’s new passing offense better than it thought….Michigan State has dropped from a 3-point fave at Northwestern probably because of all the pub the Wildcats are getting for being 5-0. But can’t see them staying with tournament-tested Spartans despite recent success.




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